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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
Is China helping or hindering?
This is meant to be the Asian century with China leading the
way. However, some believe China will not step in to help the West but to try
and hinder any potential recovery. The president of China, Hu Jintao, has
already gone on record and stated, “The inherent problems of the international
economic system have not been fully addressed.” This is undoubtedly true.
However, it would also help if India, China, etc., would not keep on exporting
both goods and services to the extent they are as this could well lead to either
high inflation or deflation in the western economies and maybe all over the
world.
World Bank chief economist, Justin Lin, is in the latter camp. He recognizes the
fact this recovery has been financed by government money and not in the old
fashioned way - production. He is worried by factories lying idle everywhere
along with the problems the resultant job losses that naturally occur with lack
of manufacturing and companies going broke. He says, “I’m more worried about
deflation.”
Another person who is worried is Nobel Prize winner, Paul Krugman. He says,
China is “stealing American jobs.” By keeping the Yuan to the US Dollar at 6.83
he believes that the Chinese are “dumping its unemployment abroad.” What he does
not mention is that if China does it then so does every other Emerging Market
nation.
Now, let’s not pretend this is all the fault of the Eastern world. It is not.
The large multi-nationals think of their shareholders and bonuses before all
else. It is much better for them to pay someone in India to answer a phone than
it is to employ a person in the West. Even worse, they pay lobbyists to stop
respective governments taking any action to prevent this happening. In a certain
way, this could be called labour arbitrage.
All of this is not going unnoticed in the West. Already the American unions have
employed their own people to lobby Washington on behalf of members. Unemployment
in the US is now over ten percent. This is worrying in itself. Even more
alarming is the fact that one third of a million home owners in America
foreclosed on their properties in the month of October alone (Realty Track).
More US citizens have had to give up their homes in 2009 than in the decade of
the 1930s. A further seven million properties have already had payment problems
and maybe seized in the near future.
In America, President Obama has stated that the Emerging Markets cannot keep
expecting the US to carry on buying things when most Americans are ‘maxed’ out
in debt. He said, “We have reached one of those rare inflection points in
history where we have the opportunity to take a different path.” He went on to
intimate that any failure to follow this ‘path’ will “put enormous strains” on
Sino-American ties.
Mr Hu is not dumb. He realizes he has to tread carefully along Obama’s path. He
does not want to have so much money tied up in America. He could do much better
things with a trillion US dollars but he will leave it in America for the moment
so as to keep on the right side of the President. The last thing he wants to
happen is for America to become protectionist and run behind the NAFTA curtain
bringing in capital controls as it shuts. If they did this then it would be
China which was suffering and the masses would voice their displeasure - to say
the least. The Chinese know this. Mr Hu said his country was taking “vigorous”
steps to try to change China’s dependency on exports which are almost 40% of
GDP. Hu added that his government, “Wants to increase people’s ability to
spend.”
Stephen Roach from Morgan Stanley says China is heading in the right direction
as it is creating pensions and a basic health insurance for those living in the
rural areas but they are nothing more than “baby steps”. It is hoped these
people will now spend some of their money as opposed to saving it.
This is all part of the USD600 billion that the Chinese are spending as part of
the stimulus package it has created. However, a lot of it has also been spent on
building more production and manufacturing factories. The optimists say this is
for the hoped for increase in domestic demand. The cynics believe it is to
export even more products. What has not gone into any of the above seems to have
found its way into property and/or stocks and shares.
Irrelevant of whether you are an optimist or not, what is undeniable is that
Chinese credit has gone mad. The cynics say this is for nothing else than
political expediency. For example, China is producing as much steel as the next
eight countries combined. It is using more cement than anywhere else and, in
2009, fixed investment increased by over fifty percent.
Even more disconcerting is the fact that, according to Pivot Asset Management,
lending has hit 140% of GDP which is way over previous limits. However, the
Chinese central bank has started to tighten its belt. New loans were down fifty
percent in October. Naturally, this is sending mixed signals. Is China building
for better things to come, trying to create an advantage over the Western world
or trying to mask a credit crunch of its own?
To be continued…
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on
[email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Can you justify it?
 I
was glancing through a camera store’s catalogue the other day and was
idly wondering if I should invest in a Nikon D3000 kit which featured
the 10.2 megapixel body with the three inch LCD and an 18-55 mm lens.
That would set a prospective owner back around 24,900 baht. For almost
the same money you could add in a 70-300 mm zoom, bringing the whole
system to just a little less than 50,000 baht. Of course, if you wanted
to do much night photography, you should also factor in the cost of the
SB-900 flash, which was another 19,900 baht, so be prepared to spend
almost 70,000 baht for the complete kit.
My eyes then drifted across the page, and there was the D3x, a camera I
have mentioned before in this column. With its whacking great 24.5
megapixels and lots more electronic goodies, this was priced at 270,000
baht. Gasp! You can buy a decent car for that kind of money. All of a
sudden, the D3000 was looking like a real bargain.
If 270,000 baht was out of your price range, then the sister camera, the
D3s was in stock. This one only has 12.1 megapixels, and was going out
the door at 179,000 baht. But could this be considered a bargain, when
on the next page you could purchase a Coolpix S570 digital compact with
12 megapixels and a slightly small LCD at 2.7 inches for 7,990 baht?
But back to the D3x which is 262,000 baht more expensive. On paper, the
D3x makes anything else obsolete, including medium format, but can you
justify the expense?
This new full-frame, 24.5 megapixel camera has a list price of US$
7,999.95 without lens, and it’s here on discount at 270,000 baht. The
D3x is really designed for studio use, weighing a hefty 1.2 kg without
battery or lens. That is a monster weight, and whilst it can be toted,
it is way too heavy for average outdoors use.
While the D3x more than doubles the megapixel count of the D3, it does
so at the cost of dropping the maximum frame rate from nine frames per
second to five. The one area where it excels is in resolution,
demonstrating remarkable sharpness. According to the manufacturer, the
great advantage of the D3x over most other cameras is its broad array of
customizable features and manual controls, in fact, this very latest
Nikon has more features than the average car! It should also be noted
that the D3x, despite its enormous price, does not have any auto modes.
It is a dedicated manual camera for the professionals who need total
control at all times.
The Nikon D3x has theoretically everything you could want in an
all-weather, all-conditions digital camera. A magnesium frame body with
rubber and plastic outer coating is resistant to shocks and drops, and
all the buttons are large and embossed.
The ergonomics and design of the Nikon D3x are largely similar to
Nikon’s D3 and D2X professional models. Two screens on the top and rear
of the camera provide all necessary information about ISO, aperture and
shutter speed. A (640x480) 3" screen is used for Live View, playback and
menu adjustment and is very sharp - it can easily be used for focusing
in Live View mode.
To emphasize the complete control that the photographer can have over
the camera can be seen in the three color modes (called Picture Controls
by Nikon): Standard, Neutral and Vivid. Monochrome is also available.
There are substantial customization controls for each mode, and all of
the color modes can have their sharpening and contrast altered as well.
For example, the non-monochrome modes also let you change saturation and
hue, and monochrome can add filters (yellow, orange, red and green) and
tones (sepia, cyanotype, red, yellow, green, blue-green, blue,
purple-blue and red-purple).
Dedicated buttons for ISO, white balance and quality allow for
adjustments to be made on the run without delving into on-screen menus,
while aperture and shutter speed dials surround both the top-mounted and
side-mounted shutter buttons making the Nikon D3x easy to use for either
portrait or landscape photography.
But, can you really justify the price? I’d like one, but I cannot
justify it!
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
House calls - a thing of the past?
Have you ever stopped to wonder why western doctors don’t
want to do house calls any more? After all, part of the job of being a GP is
to service the patients in their homes. While GP’s would prefer the patients
to come to the clinics, there are times when the patient is just too sick to
come, or too old or infirm. House calls (or ‘hotel’ calls) will always be
necessary. However, house calls are probably the most dangerous part of
being a medico.
In Australia, one of the authoritative medical publications ran a survey to
see how dangerous home visits can be. 21 percent of GPs said they or their
staff have to deal with violent patients every week. One GP in 12 has been
physically attacked, and 14 percent have been directly threatened with
physical violence.
The usual causes for the aggression towards the doctors include refusal to
prescribe a requested drug (mentioned by 68 percent of doctors), the patient
being affected by drugs or alcohol (53 percent) and long waiting times (51
percent).
So is Australia the haven for drunken, drug addicted patients with a short
fuse? The answer is not totally, as this problem is the same all over the
western world. I can remember 35 years ago having to do a weekly house call
to a very disturbed individual in the UK. This person, according to local
knowledge, had murdered the previous doctor I was standing in for, but the
police did not have enough evidence to file charges. I used to wave my
stethoscope around the door while calling out “It’s the doctor,” while being
ready to run!
The article mentioned a Sydney GP who had been chased by a machete wielding
patient. Frightening, but undoubtedly true. Once again, I have had my fair
share of these undeserving patients. One Xmas Day I was called to a local
factory, where a patient, sporting a machete, was walking around looking
for, and threatening to kill, the plant manager. Rather than call the
police, they called me, because he was my patient and it would have been bad
publicity! I managed to settle the chap, get his machete, and then called
the police!
From the patient’s point of view, there are many problems too. If the sick
person has no regular GP, he or she may find that most GP’s will refuse to
come. From the doctor’s point of view, it is enough of a risk with the
‘regular’ patients, but to go to places you don’t know to see people you
don’t know is certainly putting your head in the lion’s mouth.
What has happened is that the GP’s would rather contract another doctor, or
group of doctors, to do these dangerous house calls for them. This makes
sense in many ways. The doctor you get at 3 a.m. has been asleep all day and
is (reasonably) alert, while your own GP, who has been seeing patients all
day is (certainly) not at his best.
Many doctors team up with others in the practice, or neighborhood, to do the
house calls on a rotational basis. This was how my practice handled the
after hours work, but each year the after hours duties became more
dangerous.
As the problems began to escalate, I began to take my (then) medical student
son with me on house calls. The fact that he was 6’6" tall was comforting.
He enjoyed the additional medical experience he was receiving, and when we
were asked to make a house call to the local house of ill repute, he learned
some other lessons about ‘life’ as well. House calls can sometimes be fun
too!
Mind you, it is a little different in Thailand, or at my hospital at least.
Requests for house calls are taken by the staff and an ambulance is quickly
dispatched, complete with driver, doctor and nurse. This is good - safety in
numbers if nothing else, but it also means that if the patient requires
transport to the hospital, there is no waiting for an ambulance. It is there
already, with a crew and waiting.
Medical care in Thailand is often superior to the West.
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hilary (sic),
I have regretfully heard many farangs talk in disparaging terms about Thai
ladies and thought it was time someone put the record straight.
My own lovely Nok, who was a cashier in a beer bar when I met her has, despite
suffering many family misfortunes in the past two years, retained her positive
and happy attitude to life. During this time three of her grandmothers have
sadly passed away, her brother has been involved in four non-fault road
accidents while riding his motorcycle and required lengthy hospital treatment,
her father’s water ox has been smitten with various mysterious diseases costing
a fortune in vets bills and the rest of her unfortunate family are having
problems living on the measly 50,000 baht I send them monthly. All in all this
has cost me over three million baht to date, but what is money compared to the
emotional stress she has so bravely endured?
Now, bless her compassionate soul, she is kindly allowing me to transfer the
ownership of my two houses to her name, thus saving the annual dues I have been
paying because they have been registered in limited companies.
I appeal to all those lucky enough to have such a caring and compassionate
partner to count their blessings and stop whinging about spending a few bob to
try and bring a little happiness to these unfortunate but honest ladies and
their families. Although I now have little capital left it makes me very happy
to know that when all my money is gone Nok would still there to help and support
me.
Am I not a lucky man?
Nobody’s Fool
Dear Nobody’s Fool,
It is so uplifting to hear of such generosity between ex-pats like yourself who
have come to live here and the local ladies they meet. Not only did you snare
someone who is compassionate and caring, but having been a cashier, she will
also be very good at mathematics, especially creative counting, as it is known
in the bar game. I know there will be people who doubt the fact that three of
her grandmothers have passed away, but these are the people who don’t understand
village life, and how close the villagers can be. Your uncle could also turn out
to be your aunt in the end, you just never can tell these days. I am so glad you
are happy, and I’m sure your little Nok will be just as happy after the transfer
of the title deeds, but I would also counsel caution, my Petunia. Make sure you
have enough money left in the bank at all times to cover your urgent flight
home. You just never know! And while you are at it, learn to spell my name.
Thank you, Petal.
Dear Hillary,
We’re almost into Febuwery (sic) awready (sic) and most of my New Year
reserlutions (sic) have been broked. I was goin (sic) to give up the ciggies,
stop the beer and crisps and stay home at least three nights a week, but I can’t
do all that. What should I do about it?
Jim
Dear Jim,
At first I thought your letter was someone trying to pull my leg, but then when
I looked at the postmark, I took pity on you. Spelling is not a prerequisite for
jobs in the coal mines. Do nothing about it, you are just wonderful as you are.
Other than the spelling, which is atrocious. Your resolution (not reserlution,
Petal) should be to spend at least three nights a week learning your native
language. You may have a beer while struggling with the big words.
Dear Hillary,
The following cartoon was sent to the Pattaya Mail, would you care to comment?
PM Team
Dear PM Team,
Thank you for bringing this pornography to my notice. This man Dorian Farmer is
obviously on some kind of mind altering substance, probably illegal. How could
anyone, even with as little artistic talent as this Farmer person, portray me as
a fat frump in tartan? Or even worse, some sort of Thailand’s answer to French
footballing headbutter Zinedine Zidane, in drag? And look at the stockings!
Fully fashioned 15 denier with seams. Nobody, but nobody, wears that sort of
hosiery in this day and age. I would imagine he has some sort of kinky ideas
about suspenders as well. Oh, I think I will cry myself to sleep for a week over
this. If this Farmer person has any decency at all, I demand a retraction to be
published with this column, attached to a bottle of bubbly with which I can
console myself. Some chocolates will also help.
The Doc and Jock Show
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in
Pattaya
Tai Hong: Thai, Horror/
Thriller – This omnibus film consists of 4 short stories of death and
horror, directed by Poj Arnon (Bangkok Love Story, and also all
those crazy transvestite horror-comedies).
Solomon Kane: France/ Czech
Republic/ UK, Action/ Adventure/ Fantasy – A well-shot, competently
realized, and surprisingly entertaining mash-up of 16th century “wizards
and warriors” and devil-may-care monster mayhem. Solomon Kane is a
fictional anti-hero character created by the pulp-era writer Robert E.
Howard, who also created Conan the Barbarian. Kane, played by James
Purefoy of the “Rome” TV series, is a somber-looking man who wanders the
world with no apparent goal other than to vanquish evil in all its
forms. His adventures were published mostly in the pulp magazine Weird
Tales. With Max von Sydow and Pete Postlethwaite.
My Girlfriend is an Agent / 7th
Grade Civil Servant / 7-geup gongmuwon: South Korea, Action/ Comedy/
Romance – Extremely popular and goofy Korean comedy in which Russian
organized crime tries to steal an advanced chemical weapon from Korea,
with two secret agents out to stop it. One is a female agent and a
veteran master at all forms of martial arts, the envy of her comrades.
The other, a man naturally, is a rookie who’s never been out on the
field and always messes up on the job. The two agents don’t know each
other’s secret identity. All that they know is that they hate each
other. As a couple that is... for they were once a passionate couple
until he couldn’t take her lies anymore. But all she was trying to do
was hide her secret identity. Starring Korean heart-throb Kang Ji-hwan.
(Possibly showing, possibly not …)
Avatar: US, Action/
Adventure/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – The Golden Globes last week awarded the
Best Picture, Drama prize to Avatar, and its director James
Cameron was named Best Director. In the movie industry this raises the
prospects for the film at the Oscars coming March 8 (Thai time). In
accepting the award, Cameron said, “Avatar asks us to see that
everything is connected, all human beings to each other, and us to the
Earth. And if you have to go four-and-a-half light years to another,
made-up planet to appreciate this miracle of the world that we have
right here, well, you know what, that’s the wonder of cinema right
there; that’s the magic.” Yeah, right on! A film that shows the wonder
of cinema. That it is.
This is a truly major achievement
and a technological breakthrough. It’s a film of universal appeal that
just about everyone who goes to the movies will want to see. Already
it’s hit the billion-dollar mark at the box office worldwide, and it’s
gotten near-universal reviews from critics and fans. Of course it will
win the Oscar!
In Pattaya, Major Cineplex and
Pattaya Beach have a 2D version, which is in English and Na’vi dialog,
with English and Thai subtitles as needed. Big C has a Thai-dubbed 2D
version, no English subtitles. The only Cineplex to show it in 3D is
Pattaya Beach, and unaccountably the 3D version does not have English
subtitles for the Na’vi language, only Thai, while the 2D version has
English subtitles in a special font and style. Not to have them is a
big mistake. Best choice is to see it in IMAX in Bangkok; the bigger
the screen, the better.
Reviews: Universal acclaim. Highly
recommended; not to be missed.
After School: Thai, Drama/
Musical – A group of high school students follow their dream of having
their own musical band and becoming artists, spending their time after
school in rehearsal.
The Road: US, Adventure/
Drama/ Thriller – A thriller set in a bare, post-apocalyptic America,
where a father and son struggle to survive by any means possible. The
film’s commitment to author Cormac McCarthy’s dark vision may prove too
unyielding for some, but the film has hauntingly powerful performances
from Viggo Mortensen and the boy, Kodi Smit-McPhee. Generally favorable
reviews. At Pattaya Beach only.
Cloudy with a Chance of
Meatballs: US, Animation/ Family – Generally favorable reviews, but
it seems to have been washed away. At the moment, it’s nowhere to be
seen in town.
The Spy Next Door: US,
Action/ Comedy/ Family – With Jackie Chan. A former CIA spy looks after
his girlfriend’s three kids, and one of them accidentally downloads a
top-secret formula, leading to a run-in with a Russian terrorist.
Jackie Chan fans may be running to see this, but people in the real
world think it’s a sad little movie entirely designed to set up Chan’s
stunt sequences as he fights with pots, pans, and ladders. Reviewers
say it’s flat and witless – one of Chan’s worst ever, a juvenile,
generic, sitcommy mess that utterly fails to thrill or amuse.
Sherlock Holmes: US/ UK/
Australia, Action/ Crime/ Thriller – The Golden Globes best actor award
went to Robert Downey Jr. as Holmes. This is a new take on the Holmes
canon but once you get over the shock of seeing Sherlock played as an
action figure, it isn’t all that bad. A bit of the old Holmes shows
through. Purists, however, will not be amused. Jude Law plays Watson.
Mixed or average reviews.
Best Supporting Actor /
Yak-Dai-Yin-Wa-Rak-Kan: Thai, Drama/ Romance – Romantic comedy-drama
about two childhood friends, one of whom was always in the shadow of his
better-looking, more-popular friend. And when they grow into adults,
nothing changes. A minor variation on the standard Thai rom/com,
exploiting the inscrutable mysteries of the Thai courtship rituals.
Kru Bann Nok / To Sir With Love:
Thai, Comedy/ Drama – The life of a volunteer teaching children in
the Isan backcountry. This is a remake director Surasee Patham has made
of his own classic 1978 social drama Kru Bannok (The Rural Teacher).
It’s the same story as before: An idealistic new teacher comes to an
impoverished rural schoolhouse in 1970s Isan. There, he runs afoul of
the local powers-that-be for being so daring as to try and educate the
country kids. The film is homage to Isan life: most of the cast
are from Isan, as is the director. No relationship to the 1967 Sidney
Poitier film.
32 Tan-Wah: Thai, Comedy/
Romance – Yet another Thai “rom/com” with this one taking place on the
32nd of December, in which a young man with amnesia forgets which of his
three girlfriends he truly loves.
Did You Hear About the Morgans?:
US, Comedy/ Drama/ Romance – Hugh Grant and Sarah Jessica Parker play an
estranged New York couple whisked into the witness protection program
and sent to Wyoming. Nothing much happens. Generally unfavorable
reviews. At Pattaya Beach only.
Couples Retreat: US, Comedy
– An arid, mirthless comedy centering around four couples who settle
into a tropical-island resort for a vacation. One of the couples is
there to work on their marriage, the others fail to realize that
participation in the resort’s therapy sessions is not optional.
Generally unfavorable reviews. At Pattaya Beach only.
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