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Money matters
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Snap Shots
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Modern Medicine
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Heart to Heart with Hillary
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Let’s go to the movies
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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
A man’s home is his castle, part 1
This proverb has been around for centuries; however, if you
believe Jimi Hendrix then, “Castles made of sand fall into the sea eventually”.
In the US at the moment, share prices are on the up with the Dow Jones 30 going
through 10,000 which is where it was in 1999. However, unemployment is also on
the rise. Company closure is almost 25% up on what it was last year. Even more
worrying though is the report by The Associated Press, “The number of
households caught up in the foreclosure crisis rose more than 5 percent from
summer to fall as a federal effort to assist struggling borrowers was
overwhelmed by a flood of defaults among people who lost their jobs. The
foreclosure crisis affected nearly 938,000 properties in the July-September
quarter, compared with about 890,000 in the prior three months, according to a
report released recently by RealtyTrac Inc. That puts foreclosure-related
filings on a pace to hit about 2.5 million this year, up from more than 2.3
million last year.” The report went on, “Unemployment is the main reason
homeowners are falling into trouble. (And) the unemployment rate - now at a
26-year high of 9.8% - isn’t expected to peak until next year.”
Natalie Holt of Mortgage Strategy recently observed that the number of prime
borrowers who are at least three-month in arrears with payments continues to
rise, and as Moody’s warns that this will only get worse.
As Bob Bauman has pointed out, the US government is financing 9 out 10 new US
mortgages. People say this is impossible, but even the Wall Street Journal has
reported that the trade publication Inside Mortgage Finance has stated, “Over
the past year, the government has intervened heavily at essentially every stage
of the home buying process. In fact, more than 80% of the new residential
mortgage loans made this year benefited from some form of government support.”
It does seem unbelievable but it must be remembered that the American government
has to come to the rescue of both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac last year and
basically now owns both of these companies along with their combined USD5.4
trillion in loans. As if this is not dire enough, in an attempt to keep mortgage
rates as low as possible, the Federal Reserve has made it well known that it
wants to buy almost USD1.5 trillion in debt issued or which has been guaranteed
by the US governments mortgage bodies and another USD300 billion in Treasuries,
which are the things that set the benchmark for home lending. As if this is not
all, the government is offering USD8,000 in tax credits for first time home
buyers.
Things do not stop here. Bud Conrad of Casey Research has come up with even more
staggering statistics. The pick of this lot has to be the Federal Home Loan Bank
which is a “government sponsored entity” (GSE) and is made up of twelve regional
Federal Home Loan Banks all of which are individual companies in their own
right. This sounds very good but in fact, even though they are ‘sponsored’ by
the government, they do not get any legal guarantees from it. What they do is
sell debt securities to the public in order to provide money to its member banks
which then turn this into mortgage credit for home buyers. Now, get this, there
are 8,100 member banks, thrift and credit unions as well as insurance companies
which provide the mortgages via the banks. They do not lend directly to the end
user.
The banks then collateralize these advances from the mortgages they get. These
guys have over USD1.1 trillion of assets and liabilities but only have less than
USD50 billion of total capital. This means they are leveraged at about 25:1.
This might seem bad enough but over the last six months they have had to write
off USD200 billion of bad debt. Given the above, it is not difficult to work out
that if just five percent of the loans they have given had to be written off
then the FHLB would have no capital left. If only ten percent defaulted then
this would be twice what they are actually worth. This is just either
breathtakingly stupid or arrogance beyond belief.
Things in Merrie Olde England are no better. People in arrears of at least 90
days on UK mortgage-backed securities have doubled, going from 0.9% in Q2 2008
to 1.8% in Q2 this year.
The Moody’s report picks outs loans originated from the government-backed
Northern Rock and Bank of Scotland as particularly poor performing, which is of
even greater concern.
The dearth of the re-mortgage market, together with the rise in unemployment,
means that prime borrowers are finding it increasingly difficult to meet their
mortgage payments.
Prior to the economic downturn borrowers have refinanced their way out of
arrears problems or sold their property. Now we have an almost ‘perfect storm’
situation, whereby “increasing unemployment and a lack of financing options has
led to a dead-end scenario for borrowers, as they are forced to revert to the
lender’s SVR, which in most cases compounds the situation and may cause a
payment shock.”
To be continued…
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on
[email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Photographing Santa
 “Christmas
is coming and the goose is getting fat” goes the old Christmas carol,
and indeed the jolly fat fellow in the red outfit should be squeezing
himself down the chimney in a few weeks.
Unfortunately, the entire Santa concept is only available for a couple
of weeks in December, and only for the first few years of your
children’s lives. One day, son or daughter will inform you that there
really isn’t a Santa Claus and the magic moment is over forever, so it
is important to get some good shots for the family album.
There are some good ‘commercial’ Santas around (for example the Bangkok
Hospital Pattaya has Santa calling in on the morning of December 12 this
year) so you can plan ahead, because ‘planning’ is the answer for all
good, memorable evocative Christmas photographs.
This is much the same as all ‘event’ photography such as weddings, for
example - you get one chance and that’s it. With Santa and your child,
with another 150 children waiting in line, you can’t very well say, “Can
we just try that shot again, and try to look a little happier, Santa.”
Planning for photography means you have to think about the shots you
want first. Before you even get there, but let’s plan this together.
It will be an indoors shot, so we may have to look at bringing an
off-camera flash (if you have one). If you haven’t, then look at
bringing a tripod and using a wide aperture (also known as a ‘fast’
lens) so that the shutter speed isn’t impossibly slow. At last resort,
look to setting the camera on around 400 ASA. I do not suggest higher
ASA because digital cameras tend to get too much “noise” as the ASA goes
up, even though it makes the exposure more simple.
You also want to be close to Santa’s chair, so the shot of child and
Santa fills the frame. If you cannot get close enough, then consider a
zoom lens, but remember that the majority of zoom lenses do not allow
for wide apertures (such as f2.8).
You also have to think about the fact that Santa has a red suit, so if
you want to see your child in the shot, make him or her wear light
colored clothes, so there is a strong separation between the two
figures.
So far, in our planning, it has required a trip to the venue to see how
well lit or otherwise, a wardrobe choice for the young star of the show
and a look through all the camera gear to make sure you have it ready to
go. Of course that also means recharging the batteries, especially if
you are going to use flash. Remember that flash photography eats
batteries!
The big “S” day approaches and time for you and your child to line up
for the big event. Take some shots of someone else’s child to just check
on your lighting and exposure values and adjust accordingly. Get as
close as you can, so that the final photo is just Santa and child.
When it is your pride and joy’s turn to sit on Santa’s knee resist
calling out and saying “smile” as it is much better to record the
interaction between the child and Santa. It is that intangible emotion
that you want to catch, not the posed shot of child and Santa staring
down the lens. It is important to keep that in your mind as you are
shooting. Take a look at the illustration this week. This is an oil
painting by Todd Krasovetz and demonstrates everything I have mentioned
- the light-colored child’s outfit contrasting against Santa’s outfit,
and the whole scene is the interaction between the child and the adult
Santa. The painter can produce anything he wants, but chose to paint the
picture that you can produce yourself in the camera with just a little
planning.
Remember to also get some shots around the Xmas tree as your child
unwraps his or her presents. Since the child’s concentration will be
totally on the present, you can get quite close and record the happy
facial expressions.
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Cheap insurance
I have written about health insurance before, which is really
“sickness” insurance when you think about it, and is a necessary expense if
you want the best treatment if you do fall sick.
However, you don’t have to wait until you fall ill to see what ailments you
might fall prey to - you can actually do some predictions, which cost
nothing. Begin with a good knowledge of your parents’ health profile as that
is important from your future health’s point of view. We are discovering
every day that heredity plays a very important part of your health profile.
Heredity is one of the ‘clues’ to your health in the future, and what you
can do to enjoy a long, lively and healthy one. With the increasing research
into genetics, we are able to map out our likely futures and can predict
such ailments as diabetes, epilepsy and other neurological problems like
Huntington’s Chorea and Alzheimer’s Disease, some cancers such as breast,
ovarian, lower bowel, prostate, skin and testicular, heart attacks, blood
pressure problems, certain blood diseases like Sickle Cell anemia and so the
list goes on.
However, you do not need to have multi-million baht examinations done on
your DNA to see where you are headed, all you need to do is to start asking
the older family members about your inheritance. Not the money - your
genetic inheritance in the health stakes.
Have you ever wondered why the questionnaire for life insurance asks whether
any close member of your family has ever suffered from diabetes, epilepsy
and other ailments and then also asks you to write down how old your parents
or brothers and sisters were when they died, and what they died from? The
insurance company is not being friendly. What they, the insurance companies,
are doing, is finding out the relative likelihood (or ‘risk’) of your
succumbing early to an easily identifiable disease. This does not need a
postgraduate Masters degree in rocket science. It needs a cursory
application of family history.
If either of your parents had diabetes, your elder brother has diabetes,
your younger brother has diabetes and your cousin has diabetes, what are the
odds on your getting (or already having) diabetes? Again this is not rocket
science. The answer is pretty damn high! And yet, I see families like this,
where the individual members are totally surprised and amazed when they fall
ill, go to hospital, and diabetes is diagnosed.
It does not really take very much time over a family lunch to begin to
enquire about one’s forebears. After five minutes it will be obvious if
there is some kind of common medical thread running through your family.
That thread may not necessarily be life threatening, but could be something
like arthritis for example.
Look at it this way - your future is being displayed by your family’s past.
This could be considered frightening, when your father, his brother and your
grandfather all died very early from heart attacks (as is my family
history). Or, this could be considered as life saving, if it pushes you
towards looking at you own cardiac health and overcoming an apparently
disastrous medical history (as I have done).
This is an advantage that you get provided you are not an orphan. You know
what to look for before it becomes a problem. Going back to the family with
diabetes, what should the younger members do? Well, if it were me, I would
be having my blood sugar checked at least once a year from the age of 20.
Any time I had reason to visit the doctor in between, I would also ask to
have the level checked. We are talking about a very inexpensive test that
could literally save you millions of baht in the future, as well as giving
you a better quality of life, and a longer one.
Ask around the dinner table today and plan to check your medical future
tomorrow. It’s called a ‘Check-up’! And there are currently big discounts
until the end of December at Bangkok Hospital Pattaya, so book your place
tomorrow!
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
Is there nothing that can be done about the Thai habit of never being on time?
For anything! I am sure my Thai wife will be late for her own funeral. I have
tried putting all the clocks in the house 10 minutes forward, but it still
doesn’t work. We have arguments about it and she says, “Nobody will die because
we are late, so stop getting angry.” I have tried to say it is the height of
rudeness to people we intend to meet, but none of that works either. Tell me,
Hillary, what does work?
Tempus Fugit
Dear “Time Flies”,
Nothing!
Dear Hillary,
Why is there so much knocking of Pattaya in the media overseas? They seem to
make out that Thailand is just one big sex tour venue. Sure there are service
girls, but if you ask me, they do a good job for Thailand’s balance of trade
figures. For someone based in Thailand like you, what do you feel about this?
Perplexed
Dear Perplexed,
A perennial question, my Perplexed Petal, and one that still amazes me. London,
Amsterdam, Mumbai, Berlin, The Philippines, Sydney, New York and just about
every city this side of Salt Lake has its red light district. So why the finger
pointing at Thailand? Probably because Thailand offers better value for money?
In that case, it is probably jealousy-driven.
There is also much more for the tourists to Thailand to do than just the bar
areas, and this can be seen by the increasing number of families recently,
especially from Russia and India. Chiang Mai has also changed with many more
up-market hotels like the Shangri-La for example, and Pattaya has three new
hotels for the 2010 season, including the well-known Holiday Inn and the
luxurious Centara Grand. If Thailand is such a bad place, would major hotel
chains be building here? As I said, I think it is jealousy!
Dear Hillary,
Are you related to the “Abby” agony aunt in the American newspapers? She seems
to have been going even longer than you have, or is being an agony aunt the
secret to long life?
Agony Alfie
Dear Agony Alfie,
Dear Abby is written by Abigail Van Buren, also known as Jeanne Phillips, and is
not the same one all the time as Dear Abby was founded by her mother, Pauline
Phillips. I am not American, so we’re not related and Dear Hillary was founded
by Hillary. My mother is not called Hillary, or Pauline or Jeanne. Anyway, Dear
Abby is always sugary sweet. Dear Hillary is not.
Dear Hillary,
Over the past weeks I have seen, at long last, some farang men who were not
complaining about being ripped off by their Thai wives. For the doubters out
there - yes, there are very many others who share in the wonderful experience of
being married to a Thai woman. Dare I give advice? It is really just the same as
for any other prospective long term union irrespective of nationality - the hard
part is not the nationality, it is just “man” and “woman” that is so different.
Yes, there are many differences in culture to overcome and the rules are not
quite the same, but in the end it all boils down to a man and a woman getting to
know and understand each other. That doesn’t happen after a couple of sweaty
nights either! A good Thai woman with some education and a sensible and flexible
farang man who can listen and try to understand can match just perfectly - after
all only the fool and his money that are soon parted, but parting with a little
here and there occasionally to help the family is expected and is not so bad, is
it? I’ve had 16 years experience with the same woman. It is possible to have a
great relationship with a Thai woman.
Happy in the service
Dear Happy in the service,
You have made more than a couple of observations that should be looked at
carefully, Petal. It is possible, as you have proved, to have a good meaningful
relationship with a Thai woman. As you write, “That doesn’t happen after a
couple of sweaty nights either!” How true, those are what I call ‘meaningless’
relationships, but if this is the basis for a long term relationship, it must
fail. The female becomes very disenchanted and eventually takes whatever she can
out of the union. And that is credit cards, PIN numbers and any property she has
managed to get into her name, usually houses, condos and motorcycles. The
example of “a fool and his money are soon parted,” is so correct.
You also stated “A good Thai woman with some education,” and generally you won’t
find one of those sitting on a bar stool saying “Come in, sexy man.” Those
farangs who pick their mate from the beer bars are just setting themselves up
for a fall. The education you need to look for is of the formal kind, not the
school of hard knocks. No matter how tugging at the heart strings are the tales
of husbands killed on motorcycles and children left with their grandmothers. The
farang does need to be flexible, as you noted, and assisting the family is the
nature of the culture, but as you say, it’s not too bad, is it.
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now
playing in Pattaya
Best Bets: Julie & Julia. Surrogates. Law Abiding
Citizen. Bad Lieutenant. 2012 (if you like that sort of thing).
The Twilight Saga: New Moon: US, Drama/ Fantasy/ Romance – It’s a
phenomenon for sure, but it’s not for me; I’m sorry to report I was
bored. It’s for teenaged girls with raging hormones who want romance,
not sex – very safe romance, with the vague threat of danger. Of the
three main characters, I really dislike two. Both Bella, played by
Kristen Stewart, and Edward, played by Robert Pattinson, I find boring,
unappetizing, profoundly uninteresting characters, and actors. Also,
there’s sloppy speech work done by both – they cannot be understood most
of the time, partly because they don’t bother to enunciate, partly
because the sound technicians are messing up on the job. The dialogue
is particularly unintelligible at the very important (in the film’s
terms) Red Shirt rally in Italy. (Yes, there’s a Red Shirt rally!)
I think Bella and/or Kristen Stewart is a black hole, sucking the life
out of whatever scene she’s in. I don’t for the life of me see why the
two male leads find her so desirable. She’s everything you hate about a
teenage girl moping over unrequited love.
However, maybe it’s just me. The Variety reviewer enthused: “Kristen
Stewart is the heart and soul of the film – she gives both weight and
depth to dialogue (‘You’re just warm. You’re like your own sun’) that
would sound like typical chick-lit blather in the mouth of a less
engaging actress, and she makes Bella’s psychological wounds seem like
the real deal.”
And here’s another: “Kristen Stewart brings such raw vulnerability to
the screen that she makes moping attractive.” Some people think there’s
a lack of sparkle in the relationships; some people think the
relationships are deeply-felt, simmering, and meaningful. So I have to
be careful with what I say, and not give full rein to my negative
feelings, because great numbers of people think quite differently than
I, and it’s really just a matter of taste.
The third of the three main characters, on the other hand, is terrific!
In my opinion, you understand. This of course is the actor Taylor
Lautner, a young man who has a lot of American Indian blood in him. He
plays a member of the Quileute (pronounced KWIL-ee-ewt) tribe, and in
the course of the film Bella uncovers frightening secrets about him and
his tribe.
The Quileute tribe is an actual tribe living in western Washington
State. Legends hold that a supernatural transformer fashioned the
Quileute from wolves. In the story, some members of the Quileute tribe
are capable of shape-shifting into wolves, becoming spirit wolves, which
are similar to werewolves. They are natural enemies of vampires.
Therefore, Jacob is an enemy of Edward. That of course leads to endless
complications, because Bella falls in love with them both.
At any rate, despite what I or anyone else may feel, this film may be
critics-proof. It’s very well calculated to appeal to its target
audience, virgins dreaming of safe love. Apparently there are millions
of them, and they all have money to spend on movies that show love
that’s exciting and thrilling but not particularly threatening. It will
undoubtedly be a hit.
So bottom line: if you’re a teenaged girl with raging hormones, you’ll
love it! As you will the next in the series, Twilight Saga:
Eclipse, directed by yet a third director, David Slade, which
completed shooting three weeks ago.
Mixed or average reviews.
Julie & Julia: US, Biography/ Comedy/ Drama/ Romance – Meryl Streep
gives a charismatic performance as Julia Child, and Amy Adams is Julie
Powell in this adaptation of two bestselling memoirs. Generally
favorable reviews.
Disney’s A Christmas Carol: US, Animation/ Drama/ Family/ Fantasy –
Starring Jim Carrey, this animated adaptation of the Charles Dickens
classic – one of literature’s most haunting morality tales – uses the
motion capture technology previously seen in The Polar Express.
Mixed or average reviews.
Ninja Assassin: US/ Germany, Action/ Drama/ Thriller – Features a
warfare innovation – the slicing of bodies in half by whizzing
five-pointed stars. A blood-soaked combination of physical stunts and
digital trickery, with Korean pop star Rain, who here is only a mild
drizzle. Rated R in the US for strong bloody stylized violence
throughout, and language.
2012: US/ Canada, Action/ Drama/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – Director Roland
Emmerich has given movie watchers several apocalyptic films
(Independence Day, The Day After Tomorrow), but they were only
warm-ups to the big one, the real end of the world (mostly). I guess
you’d have to call it a special effects film with a lot of action.
Basically an excuse to see things get destroyed. Mixed or average
reviews.
Surrogates: US, Action/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – I really enjoyed this,
and I think you will too. Set in a futuristic world where humans live
in isolation and interact through surrogate robots, a cop (Bruce Willis)
investigates the murder of the college student whose father invented the
surrogates. As the case grows more complicated, the withdrawn detective
discovers that in order to actually catch the killer he will have to
venture outside the safety of his own home for the first time in many
years, and enlists the aid of another agent (Radha Mitchell) in tracking
his target down. Mixed or average reviews. Nevertheless, I recommend
it highly.
Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans: US, Crime/ Drama –
Directed by Werner Herzog. A demented cop on the brink of insanity –
that’s Nicolas Cage. He plays a rogue detective who is as devoted to
his job as he is at scoring drugs - while playing fast and loose with
the law. He wields his badge as often as he wields his gun in order to
get his way. In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina he becomes a
high-functioning addict who is an intuitive, fearless detective reigning
over the beautiful ruins of New Orleans with authority and abandon.
Complicating his tumultuous life is the prostitute he loves (played by
Eva Mendes). Together they descend into their own world marked by
desire, compulsion, and conscience. The result is a singular
masterpiece of filmmaking, equally sad and manically humorous.
Generally favorable reviews, but a wide divergence of opinion.
At Pattaya Beach only.
Law Abiding Citizen: US, Drama/ Thriller – Terrific! I found this
film quite entertaining and thought-provoking. Clyde Shelton (Gerard
Butler) decides to take justice into his own hands, getting revenge on
the murderers of his family as well as those in the justice system
responsible for setting one murderer free. The District Attorney (Jamie
Foxx), one of those who helped set the murderer free, tries to stop
him. Rated R in the US for strong bloody brutal violence and torture, a
scene of rape, and pervasive language. In Thailand, 18+. Generally
unfavorable reviews, but I highly recommend it anyway.
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