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HEADLINES [click on headline to view story]:

Money matters

Snap Shots

Modern Medicine

Heart to Heart with Hillary

Psychological Perspectives

A Female Perspective

Money matters: Investing closer to home (Part 2)

Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.

Stocks are on occasions cheap for good reasons. One such reason rests on the perceived prospect for an imminent downturn in the relevant industry. For instance, many portfolio investors are concerned with petrochemicals and shipping hitting a cycle peak in 2005-6. While we do not dispute that the broad petrochemical and shipping industries could both be in for a period of product and service prices levelling off beginning in 2006, we also see exceptions to the general expectation. We believe that the small handy dry-bulk shipping sector is not about to be flooded by oversupply of new vessels in the next 12 months. We also believe the aromatics cycle is likely to see new capacity come on line later than other sub-sectors in the petrochemical industry.
In common with other emerging economies in Asia, we expect the Thai economy to grow at a decelerating rate. Rising interest rates around the world and high crude prices for the second year in the row would slow down growth in consumer expenditure and turn Thailand’s trade account into a deficit.
The SET trades at about 12x 2004 market EPS and 10x 2005 market EPS at present. The average PER of the SET between 1988 and 2004 is about 13.5x. Given the outlook for slowing macro-economic growth in Thailand and in the rest of the world, tightening credit and crude prices remaining stubbornly high, a top down approach to portfolio investing would likely avoid interest sensitive stocks, such as banks, consumer finance companies and residential property developers, and treat with caution cyclical stocks, growth companies and exporters in 2005. Based on a typical top down approach, investors would likely select infrastructure plays, defensives, such as big cap energy companies and reliable dividend payers. As stated before, there is better value to be had by the bottom end approach.
Seamico, as usual, has been pretty spot on so far, but by the year end, we’d want to see more signs supporting M.R. Pridiyathorn’s optimism and less justification for our caution or else we’d move from long to short in our SET view. It’s interesting that everyone seems to be jumping on the bandwagon right now - last week the International Herald and Tribune chipped in by reporting that certain hedge fund operators and the media services have been in overdrive these days, warning of a repeat of the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. The Indonesian Rupiah has been said to be in freefall with reports of the same happening in Thailand and elsewhere. The reason for this is the oil price hit to Asian trade balances and government failure to follow the market and raise local fuel prices and lift interest rates.
The article reports that while most Asian countries are heavily dependent on imported oil and most do have high energy ratios to GDP, partly due to low energy prices, with the cost of energy subsidies having a negative impact on government budgets and energy distributors profitability, but these prices are being held down for short-term political reasons and most subsidies will be removed as soon as possible.
Furthermore Indonesia, for example, while said to be in a current mini-crisis, is an energy exporter of coal and gas, which offset the small net oil imports. The impact is not on its balance of payments but on the budget.
Thailand is reported to be in a danger zone due to the current account deficit cited above. The IHT was significantly less detailed than M.R. Pridiyathorn attributing most blame to the tsunami’s damage to tourism income. It rightly stated that Thailand’s fiscal position cannot stand permanent domestic price subsidies but also that currently domestic demand requires a temporary cushion against a sudden fall in consumer spending power.
Malaysia, also said to be acting irresponsibly with regard to oil prices, is helping its economy sustain consumption at a time when the current account surplus is running at more than 15% of GDP, money which is mostly going to prop up the spending of deeply indebted households in the US, UK and other developed countries.
In all of these instances it failed to take account of the future impact of global slowdown. Thailand is healthier and in many ways better positioned than in 1997 but the sustained high oil prices feared by M.R. Pridiyathorn and the sustained global economic downturn feared by many analysts could be a very unfortunate combination.
However, it may be that the best news for the Thai economy happened a couple of thousand miles away, where incumbent Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won 296 seats in the 480-member House of Representatives, well above the 241 seats needed for a majority and above the 249 seats the party held when Koizumi dissolved the chamber, and a landslide affirmation of his stated intention to reform Japanese society. By calling the snap election in August, Koizumi effectively set a national referendum on his bid to privatize Japan Post, a financial-services giant with $3 trillion in savings and insurance assets. The move would effectively create the largest bank in the world.
Postal privatization is pivotal to Koizumi’s wide-sweeping reform agenda. “The election was carried out under difficult circumstances at first,” Koizumi told a news conference. “In the end, we got much more support from the people of Japan than expected. I accept the judgment of the people with a sense of great responsibility, and will work to pass the postal reform bills as soon as possible. I intend to push forward policies on other issues of concern to the people, such as social insurance, in parallel with postal reform,” he said, without giving details.
Both the stock markets (the Nikkei finished above 12,850 at a four-year high) and the yen gained responded positively to the news. While we don’t expect progress in Japan to be straightforward we do expect Japan to take 2 steps forward for every step back - the converse of the ratio that we expect to see in the West. Japan may represent some economic salvation for emerging Asia, although we would start to increase exposure to Japan cautiously right now and wait a little longer to see how the picture develops for Thailand, ASEAN and emerging Asia.

The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]


Snap Shots: Cats and kids – you have been warned!

by Harry Flashman

Cat pic by Ernie Kuehnelt
When someone says you take great photos and asks you to take a photograph of their offspring – forget the warm glow this gives you and turn down the offer! Staying away from kids and animals used to be the maxim for stage performers. It is the same for photographers. While every mother and pet owner wants wonderful photographs of their charges, it is very difficult to get one that you will be happy with, let alone the owner of kid/pooch/cat (delete those not applicable).
The biggest problem is the short attention span demonstrated by children and pets. Something they can be interested in will last around 2 milliseconds if you are lucky. Hang about composing, focussing and other fiddling will see the child turn round, the dog will start licking something you would not want recorded for posterity and the moggie will just stalk off, tail in the air. Or it can be a combination of all three.
The answer is to be fore-warned and therefore fore armed. You have to visualize the shot first and make it happen second. It is not a case of following the child around and going snap, snap, snap and hoping one will turn out OK. It won’t, and you’ll get tired.
What does help is to look at photographs in magazines and books, and when you find a pose that you like, then work out just how did the photographer get the shot. This is important if you are going to try to capture that same “look” with your shots. By the way, this is not cheating or blatant copying, which I am totally opposed to, all you are doing is seeing how you can technically get a pleasing result.
Chances are, when you have found the shots you like, that you will find that to get the shot, the camera is on the same level as the subject. This goes for about 99 out of 100 shots of alert kids/pooches/cats. When they are asleep, then take from above – the 1 in a 100 shot!
It is for this reason that pro photographers have a couch they put kids on – just to bring them up to normal camera level. Likewise, those demented photographers who make their money by photographing animals do the same. After all, you look a right proper idiot crawling round on your belly taking shots in front of the startled owners!
OK, let’s get down to action with your kids and animals. Begin by setting the scene and you begin with the background. A dull mottled material background works well as it does not have fussy details to take your eyes away from the main subject. You should also position this background at least 1 metre away from where the subject will be placed. You can either paint this background yourself, or you can buy rolls of it from professional camera houses.
Now position something in front of the camera to represent Phido or Philip. Place it where you expect the subject to sit and pre-focus and set your exposure details (or just set the camera on Auto and let it do the work). Now look through the viewfinder and make sure you have all of the background material in the frame, as well as the child/animal sized dummy. A large stuffed toy can be used for this purpose. If you have a tripod, it is a good idea to use it here too.
Now get a favourite toy (for the humans) and some bacon fat for cats and a box of matches for dogs. Speed is now the name of the game. Position the child where the stuffed toy or whatever was seated and give it to the child. Start snapping NOW! If you are lucky, you will have caught that “magic moment” of childish glee. If you’re lucky.
With the cat, have the owner smear the bacon fat on its mouth and it will reward you with the tongue lick shot. With the dog, rattle the matches and it will prick its ears up for that “alert dog” look. That is just before it lunges at you from the table! Stay away from kids and animals. You have been warned.


Modern Medicine: Exercise for Health. Does that include sexercise?

by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant

Probably the commonest advice a doctor gives is to lose weight and some exercise. Does that ring a bell in your memory? Was that part of the advice after your annual physical check-up?
Unfortunately, there seems to be very little real understanding of what exercise should consist of, how often, what type, how long and what about sex? For example, I was reading an article on exercise the other day and it said authoritatively that one should wear comfortable clothing and socks with the correct size of non-slippery, shock-absorbing shoes. If this includes sexercise, there are some strange shoe fetishes out there that I haven’t heard of yet!
However, getting a little serious, exercise will be good for you, provided that you pick a form of exercise that is not harmful for you! Now I know that looks as if I have put my money on both horses in the race, but take that sentence at its face value. Enough research has been done to show that regular exercise is beneficial for everybody, in both the physical and psychological aspects, but, and it is a big ‘but’, all forms of exercise have relative bodily risks, and this has to be taken into account before you buy a pair of expensive jogging shoes and tackle a 10 km trot in the middle of the day. True stories – a medical colleague in Australia took up playing squash when he turned 50 and dropped dead on the court of a heart attack, and another acquaintance of mine turned 40, decided he wasn’t fit, bought a bicycle to ride to work each day and was run over by a bus.
The same article that advised non-slippery shoes, did have some wise words, however. These included to choose appropriate exercise according to your ability. Never exceed your limit. Remember that it is not the harder the better. If you have acute medical problems (such as fever, or pain), stop exercising. If you have chronic medical conditions (such as hypertension, diabetes, ischemic heart disease and arthritis), seek advice from your doctor or physiotherapist beforehand. All of these I agree with. If you are happy to take your body to your medical advisor when it is sick, take it back to your doctor for advice on how to tone it up as well.
The other words of wisdom suggested that for prolonged exercise such as hiking, continually drink water to supplement the loss of body fluid due to sweating. Do not wait until you are thirsty. Take appropriate breaks during exercise. Do not over-exert yourself. Forget about “powering through the pain barrier”. Leave that for Olympic cyclists.
As well as the form of exercise, there is the frequency. At least three times per week, 20-30 minutes (or more) is necessary each time, to derive the maximum benefit. And always remember, if there is dizziness, fainting, shortness of breath, chest pain, vomiting, nausea or severe pain during exercise, stop exercising immediately and seek medical advice as soon as possible.
Now I did mention at the start of this week’s article, the word “sexercise”, and some of you have been impatiently reading, while nervously fiddling with your expensive packet of Viagras, Kanagras, Cialis and other lead-in-your-pencil medications (I draw the line at tiger willy). OK, what about sex? The advisability of this form of exercise when you have some chronic complaint (such as hypertension, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, etc), should be part of the advice you get from your doctor beforehand. The danger of over the counter willy stiffeners is that you don’t get advice with them.
Finally, the learned article did say “Exercise with friends. Company provides enjoyment, mutual encouragement and support.” That goes for sexercise too!


Heart to Heart with Hillary

Dear Hillary,
I enjoy your Heart to Heart column every week, but am wondering why you print and respond to mistersinga? It is becoming a distraction from your otherwise entertaining and educational material.
Steve “Red” Barron
Dear Steve (Red Baron Von Richtofen?),
Do you know the definition of a sadist? It’s someone who is nice to a masochist. I have this horrible feeling that I am becoming a masochist even by reading his emails. However, deep down inside, underneath this gruff exterior I have a heart of chocolate, and I end up feeling sorry for him. Enough of the entertainment value!
Since you want educational material as well as advice for the love-lorn, your namesake, the famous Red Baron, also used several names. Richthofen was known as der rote Kampfflieger (Red Battle-Flyer) by the Germans, Petit Rouge (little Red) or le Diable Rouge (Red Devil) or Johnny by the French, and the Red Knight or the Red Baron in the English-speaking world. The German translation of ‘Red Baron’ is Der Rote Baron, and Richthofen is known by this name in Germany as well. If you own a dog, you should not call him Snoopy (as per the Peanuts comic strip), as Captain Arthur “Roy” Brown was the British Sopwith Camel pilot who chased the Red Baron to his death, thought to be from an Australian AA gunner on the ground.
However, there appears to be no such grandeur with mistersingha’s nom de plume. I think he probably coined it after drinking too much of the amber produced by Boon Rawd Breweries. With a little luck his liver will soon fail, and we will be rid of him forever!
Dear Hillary,
A couple of weeks ago, someone wrote in complaining of the ding-dong that happens when you open the door of the very large world wide convenience store chain. I can’t see what he is complaining about. At least someone then welcomes you to the shop with the “Chern, Kha” and that puts me in a good mood. I reckon some people complain about nothing.
Ding-Dong
Dear Ding-Dong,
Like you, my Petal, I see (hear) nothing wrong with the welcoming chimes from the 7-11’s, but I do get worried by the plethora (nice word for a Friday) of them. On my local soi there is one on each corner of the mouth on to the main road. How do they survive?
Dear Hillary,
There are two very nice girls I have met recently and I would like to take them out. My problem is the fact that they both work in the same office as me! If I take one out, it will be all over the office the next day, so I am worried the other then will not come – or vice versa. I have no intention of settling down and my contract runs out anyway soon. What do you advise, wise Hillary?
Undecided.
Dear Undecided,
Why are you cluttering up your life agonizing over ridiculous decisions that don’t have to be made? You have already said you are only here for a short time, so stop worrying! If you are so desperate to take them both out then ask them both at the same time and invite them to go to the local psychiatric hospital with you. I think you might like it.
Dear Hillary,
One of my workmates has been coming round to our house a lot recently and I think he is keen on my wife, who is a very beautiful Thai girl. He will come over to our condominium and ask me for advice about things at work, when he could easily come and see me in my office during working hours. He also looks at her a lot. I am suspicious – what is your opinion Hillary? Should I talk to him or just bust him on the nose?
Unhappy Husband
Dear Unhappy,
There is a very easy way around all this, my unhappy Petal. Why are you seeing him at home, when, as you say, he could see you at work to discuss these so-called problems? If he rings, just say you are too busy and to see you in the morning at work, or if he’s the type to arrive uninvited just refuse to entertain him at home and again tell him to see you in the morning at work. An Englishman’s home is always his castle. Protect it. He’ll get the message in the end, unless he is as thick as two short planks.
Dear Hillary,
I hate bartering for goods. I really would just prefer to know the price and pay for it, but my friends all tell me that you have to barter as it is an accepted part of trade in Asia. What can I do, Hillary? There must be more people like me.
Betty
Dear (No)Barter Betty,
Simple! You just pay the first asking price and live with the knowledge that you have been ripped off. Or you can shop only in large supermarkets which have fixed prices. Or send the maid out to do the shopping for you. It is an Asian “ethnic” practice you get used to, like queuing in the United Kingdom, or going mad over the Superbowl in America.


Psychological Perspectives: Why does a lapse in smoking cessation so often lead to a relapse?

by Michael Catalanello, Ph.D.

A friend of mine was a heavy smoker for many years. He had attempted to quit on several occasions; actually did quit several times, only to eventually resume smoking. Each relapse began with the smoking of a single cigarette. That cigarette would invariably be followed by another, and another, until something resembling his previous smoking pattern had become reestablished.
My friend’s experience is not unusual. Research indicates that as many as 9 out of 10 smokers who attempt to quit, resume regular smoking within one year. Each relapse, of course, begins with the smoking of a one or more cigarettes in what might be considered a lapse, or a slip. The vast majority of individuals experiencing such a lapse subsequently resumes a regular pattern of smoking.
Researchers have reported that from 79% to 97% of those experiencing a smoking lapse subsequently continue smoking. Why is it that so many of those attempting to quit resume smoking following a lapse? Why do so few overcome what could conceivably be a temporary setback? Does a lapse itself directly cause a relapse, or does it set in motion other factors that increase the probability of a relapse? A study published this month in the Journal of Abnormal Psychology published by the American Psychological Association casts light upon these issues.
Various theories have suggested a number of different mechanisms that may operate when a smoker attempting to quit experiences a lapse. A “pharmacological” explanation proposes that a lapse exposes the person to the effects of an addictive substance, in this case, nicotine, which reinstates a strong craving, thus motivating attempts to acquire more of the drug.
There is also believed to be an effect produced by “nonpharmacological” factors. It has been shown in animal studies that cues associated with a drug that are presented during a lapse can increase the animal’s motivation to reacquire the drug. The appearance of the cigarette itself, the feel of the cigarette between the fingers or the lips, the ritual of lighting up, and the taste and odor of smoke are examples of some of the stimuli associated with smoking.
A third explanation involves so-called “cognitive and affective” reactions, thoughts and emotions which occur as a result of a lapse. According to this idea, a person who experiences a lapse responds with negative thoughts and feelings that undermine his success at quitting. For example, a person who lapses might prematurely conclude that he has failed to kick the habit. He might further label himself a failure, experience feelings of guilt, and depression. These thoughts and feelings promote a resumption of smoking.
Psychologist Laura Juliano of American University and her colleagues at Johns Hopkins conducted a study to in an attempt to illuminate the role of a lapse in promoting a smoking relapse. Smokers were recruited to take part in a “practice quit attempt,” rather than a stop-smoking program. All participants were instructed to quit smoking for 4 days. The subjects were randomly assigned to one of three groups. Following the 4 days of abstinence from smoking those in two of the groups were instructed to lapse by smoking five cigarettes provided by the experimenter. Those in one of these groups lapsed by smoking cigarettes containing the usual amount of nicotine. The other group was provided “denicotinized” cigarettes, containing negligible amount of the drug. A third group was not induced to lapse.
Subjects were monitored for a period of six days following their “lapse” (or no lapse) to determine how long it would take for them to spontaneously resume smoking. Results showed that those in the nicotine and denicotinized conditions did not differ in any significant way from one another. At the end of six days 45% of the nicotine group and 40% of the denicotinized group were still abstaining. This suggests that exposure to nicotine following smoking cessation might not be an important factor affecting relapse.
Compared to the two lapse groups, the no lapse group fared significantly better. At the end of the six days of follow-up 70% of those who had not been induced by the experimenter to lapse were still abstaining from cigarettes. This finding supports the idea that conditioning, cognitive, and emotional factors may play a critical role in influencing people to relapse following a lapse in smoking cessation.
The finding that nicotine in cigarette smoke did not play an important role in the lapse to relapse process provides greater insight into the process by which many smokers fail in their attempt to abstain from smoking. As a clearer understanding of the elements of smoking relapse emerges from psychological studies like this one, clinical and health psychologists will be better able to design effective treatments to prevent the progression so many smokers make from lapse to relapse.

Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his home State of Louisiana, USA, and a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at Asian University, Chonburi. You may address questions and comments to him at [email protected], or post on his weblog at http://asianupsych.blogspot.com

A Female Perspective: Love and Marriage

with Sharona Watson

Sometimes, when I look around me, I think there is so little love in the world. Too often, it seems like a rare diamond, lying hidden beneath the earth for too long and sadly, too many people never discover its beauty. But I truly believe that love is there for everyone to find. You just have to believe in the possibility of dreams coming true.
That doesn’t mean you have to be careless with your love. In some ways, I suppose it means that you have to believe in being a romantic, that one day lightning can strike and your life will be changed immediately and forever, for the better.
Of course, romantic love is not the only kind of love; there’s the love of friendship, the love of family, love between mother and child, the love of brothers and sisters. But I want to focus on the kind of romantic love that turns into marriage. In which case (I digress) it could be between two men, or two women, right? After all, gay marriages are becoming more and more “popular” and are legal in (some states) of the United States, the United Kingdom and other countries. Good luck to any couple in love, I say!
I feel very lucky to have fallen in love. When it came, it was one of the more pleasant bombshells that fell about the Kibbutz. Andy tells his own story about how we met, which can go on for hours and I always take the mickey out of him when he tells it. But mainly, I am going to admit now in public, it’s true. In 1982, when I was fifteen and he was seventeen, he came to Israel. At this time, hundreds of lovely young boys from around the world would come to the Kibbutz as volunteers, working in our apple orchards or fish ponds. Can you imagine?! It was as if the world was coming to visit! And there were lots of handsome ones to choose from; dark, blond, everything. Even if they were from England, after two weeks they were almost brown and beautiful. But when I saw Andy, it was different.
On August 3rd 1982, our eyes met and something special happened. I felt that my life had changed. As a human, I realized I could no longer live in a world without feeling love. I remember the feeling very clearly. Oh, look at me! Running away with myself! To cut a long story short, Andy left to finish high school and then go to play soccer at university in the United States. He took with him a locket of my hair. I didn’t see him for eight years. Then one day in 1990, he returned as he had promised he would and we have been together ever since.
People often ask, why did he leave you in the first place if he loved you so much? Well, I think that maybe you have to have been in love to understand the answer. If Andy had stayed in Israel in 1982, he would have always regretted not having chased his destiny. Our souls had become one and wherever he had gone, I knew in my heart that he would come back, one day. Now, I’ve cut a lot of the story but its heart is a shared belief – in love. When he proposed to me, in Rio de Janeiro in 1991, it was a perfect place to make our love public and permanent.
Love is a complex and strong emotion. People will go a long way for love. Do crazy things. For those of my generation and older, who haven’t found what they are looking for, whom fate hasn’t struck with that special someone or moment, what are you supposed to think? It is so difficult to keep believing in something which you have never felt or seen. But I say: keep believing. The moment you stop believing is the moment the possibility of love happening, ends!
As we get older, as we become more set in our ways, maybe we become less able to compromise in the way we live our lives? One of my friends told me recently that she could not find a partner. She is thirty eight. So I asked her what happened to the last one she tried, and she complained that he had snored too much and that he squeezed the toothpaste from the “wrong end”.
Perhaps it’s easier to meet someone when you’re really young because you learn about living together before you learn about living alone. In marriage, if there’s one thing you have to do, it’s compromise. In fact it’s like an endless series of compromises and that’s why remembering that you love that person is so important. I try and take a minute or two every day just to think about why I love this man I live with. Sometimes it takes longer to come up with an answer, but I come up with an answer. I have to say that initially, I wasn’t really a big believer in the institution of marriage. There wasn’t a strong record of it in my family. Whereas in Andy’s family, there seemed to be a silver or golden wedding every other year. So I needed some convincing. I was only twenty five when I got married and when you think of all those years which (God willing) you’re going to spend with one person, well, it’s kind of scary. “Two paths” as the best man said at our wedding, “become one” but the journey can be tough, difficult and at times painful. It’s as if you haven’t just bought into love, you’ve bought the whole package. But it’s love that keeps you on the right path. So in the words of the song, I suppose that makes love the “horse”, pulling the “carriage” of marriage behind it. One thing’s for sure, though. You can’t have one without the other.
Next Week: Discussions and Arguments
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