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Money matters: Do pigs have wings?
Part 1
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
A Happy New Year to all our readers. The time has come to
talk of many things and to see if pigs have wings. Given some of the forecasting
that is going on for 2005 it may seem to some people that pigs really can fly.
One noted economist recently said that he expected the Dow Jones 30 to be at
11,800 by the end of 2005. Given the economic circumstances that prevail at the
moment and ridiculously high P/E ratios I think I would prefer to listen to the
Walrus.
I believe that the markets are in for an uncertain year over
the next twelve months but that there is still money to be made if you know
where to look. Below you will find the MBMG International Investment strategy
update for the next three months.
For those of you that may be considering a lump sum
investment then you should really only consider doing a Personal Portfolio Bond
because of the almost unlimited investment choice, whereas if you just invest
with one finance company then you are limited to a comparatively small range of
funds.
If anyone is considering investing on a regular basis –
monthly, quarterly, etc, then we are presently recommending Generali, Friends
Provident International and Zurich International because of the superior fund
selection they have.
For those of you who already have funds then you may wish to
consider what I have written below. We are also happy to advise on any other
funds that you may wish to discuss.
The basic concept that we like to follow is core/satellite -
i.e. we look for a core fund holding that works for all situations and we
personalise that with a satellite holding of funds that weight the core in
favour of a client’s individual requirements.
It follows, therefore, that the core fund must satisfy the
basic requirements of all clients. In general these can best be described as
consistent growth and/or income (income in reality is a form of growth that is
available and accessible on a regular basis) with security. Our core holdings
are actively managed portfolios of all five asset classes - cash, property,
equities, fixed interest and alternatives.
However, each client has a highly individual appetite for
risk and therefore a very different potential for reward.
Our core philosophy is efficient investment – at every risk
point on the spectrum the investment should offer the maximum reward for that
level of risk.
In practice this isn’t always a constant. For example,
there is currently nothing at the extreme high risk end of the scale that is
acceptably efficient and so all our portfolios are showing an unusually high
degree of commonality.
Our basic maxim is ‘what if?’ For every view that we hold
about the markets, we always wonder what would happen if we’re wrong and as
far as possible seek managers who aren’t tied to one way positional moves
without any security of something else happens. We talk openly with the
marketplace about any funds that are interesting and if we’re not fully able
to form a clear view then we will always seek expert external analysis.
Our main takes are still the
same:
1) Recently we stated that extreme volatility was likely to
persist in both directions in the market – it was an extremely dangerous time
to be taking any positions in markets that are not clear cut – therefore
arbitrage and low volatility strategies were likely to be good performers. This
has paid off handsomely – although most volatility has been to the upside,
meaning that equities have also performed well, our core and satellite holdings
have matched the strong returns from the equity markets at a fraction of the
level of inherent risk. We will continue to maintain this strategy.
What if we’re wrong? This strategy is still likely to
yield high single/low double digit returns – the only exception would be if we
get clear, flat investment horizons going forwards – in that case, these will
underperform but should still make small profits – i.e. they would represent a
missed opportunity not a disaster. However, the risks associated with buying
into a very limited equity opportunity are just too high right now.
2) A couple of months ago we also said that equities and
property are overvalued and will correct sharply sometime in the near future.
These, therefore, are best avoided unless via some methodology (e.g. long/short
or market neutral) where the return of the investment isn’t correlated to the
performance of the markets. UK residential property markets have just reported
their sixth consecutive month of decline. World stock markets, though, have
moved higher, driven, we believe, almost exclusively by a Fed-injected liquidity
bubble that looks extremely prone to an imminent burst. Long/short and market
neutral managers have slightly underperformed long only equities but strongly
outperformed property – in both instances at only a fraction of the risk. We
continue to favour non-correlated strategies.
What if we’re wrong? If the equity markets continue to
go up strongly (and that would be little short of miraculous) then we would
continue to underperform while still recording positive gains.
3) In November our fixed interest view was that the market
was on the brink of turning positive - treasuries having already started their
correction and while there might be one or two more rate movements upwards in
the near term, they already offered value again and it was a good time to move
back in there. We are very happy with the results this has produced, although
the turning point has probably now been passed and even though no great returns
have been generated over the last couple of months, the Euro treasuries in
particular look good and remain a buy. Rotation from equities could lead to
dramatic increases in bond values that would make short-term profit taking
worthy of consideration. For now, we’re buying selectively.
What if we’re wrong? Even if interest rates increase,
slowing growth constraints mean that this can only be very temporary – one
rate rise is feasible; more than that very unlikely. If we’re wrong it can
only be in terms of premature timing, but that is less likely now than it was
two months ago. That would mean a small short term underperformance which would
be recovered soon. There is scope here although with some risk of short term
volatility.
More next week…
The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be
reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can
accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor
bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions
taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more
information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
Snap Shots: Kirlian photography and Kirlian cameras
by Harry Flashman
Kirlian photography is not new, despite claims to the
contrary. What should be more correctly referred to as the ‘Kirlian
effect’ was demonstrated at the end of the 19th century and was then
known as ‘electrography’.
 However,
it did not get the publicity it needed to catch on until a Russian
electrical technician Semyon Davidovitch Kirlian and his wife Valentina
Kirliana published a paper in 1950 in the Russian Journal of Scientific
and Applied Photography in which they described the process, now known as
Kirlian Photography.
‘New Age’ followers seized upon this as being able
to photograph the ‘aura’ of a person, and, at long last, show to the
unbelievers that all the ‘bio-energies’ had a basis in science.
Kirlian photography has been linked to telepathy, orgone energy, N-rays,
acupuncture, ancient eastern religions, and other paranormal phenomena.
I am not going to get embroiled in semantics as to
whether the Kirlian effect and the aura can be used for medical diagnosis
(as is claimed), or whether Reiki practitioners have sparks coming out of
their fingers when they are ‘healing’. However, I can reveal what is
being recorded on film, and what you need to have your own ‘Kirlian’
camera.
First off, the Kirlian effect is ‘real’, but what
is being recorded is not paranormal; it is a phenomenon called ‘Corona
Discharge’. Corona discharge is seen in lightning and the sparks that
come off your fingers after you walk on nylon carpets. This used to be
done as a party trick by Nikola Tesla (1856-1943) who used to introduce
new discoveries with his body glowing and sparks flying from his
fingertips. Tesla, by the way, was a brilliant inventor, and it was he who
introduced the concept of alternating current, used today, rather than
Edison’s direct current.
The corona discharge that is recorded by the Kirlian
photographers requires the object being subjected to an electric current
and the size and colour depends upon moisture that is present on the skin,
and this is why inanimate objects do not give off a discharge as do
animate ones.
Terence M. Hines, a psychology professor says,
“Living things (like the commonly photographed fingers) are moist. When
the electricity enters the living object, it produces an area of gas
ionisation around the photographed object, assuming moisture is present on
the object. This moisture is transferred from the subject to the emulsion
surface of the photographic film and causes an alternation of the electric
charge pattern on the film. If a photograph is taken in a vacuum, where no
ionised gas is present, no Kirlian image appears. If the Kirlian image
were due to some paranormal fundamental living energy field, it should not
disappear in a simple vacuum,” he said.
One team that spent some time examining the Kirlian
effect has found a list of 25 factors that can effect a Kirlian
photograph, including thickness of the skin, recent physical activity, and
yes, mental stress. All of these affect the amount of moisture on the
skin. Other factors include voltage level, voltage pulse rate, atmospheric
gasses, the internal force and angle of the object held against the film,
and barometric pressure. In effect, a single person can come up with
different ‘auras’ simply by changing finger pressure and the amount of
moisture found in the skin. That’s the science. As for the psychic
energy claims, you can make up your own mind!
To make your own Kirlian photographs you will need a high frequency
generator, as well as a camera, and ‘fortunately’ the old Polaroid
SX70 works well here. A quick check on the internet came up with the
following outfit that you can buy. The price includes HV/HF generator,
Polaroid camera body, camera case, sample instant Polaroid film
(3.25" x 4.25", type 669 or equivalent), instruction manual
(click to view pdf file-81KB), interpretation guide (click to view pdf
file-540KB), 11x17inch Laminated Poster, and “Life’s Hidden Forces”.
Specifications - Shipping Weight: 7lbs, dimensions: 15in x 11 x 6, Power:
110/120V or 230/240V, please specify). And all that, which will allow you
to make money at ‘alternative’ fairs will only set you back USD 745.
Modern Medicine: The Polymeal - Great news
for wine and chocolate lovers!
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Latest data out of Europe is great news for
many people. 150 ml of wine and some dark chocolate taken every day has the
potential to reduce your chances of heart attacks by almost 75 percent! The
redoubtable Ms. Hillary will live forever!
A couple of years ago the scientific community put forward
the proposal that we were now in receipt of enough evidence that certain
pharmacological agents could reduce the chances of catastrophic cardiovascular
events. Some of these I have mentioned before, such as the 100 mg of aspirin
that I (and you) take daily. Other ingredients in the wonder Polypill included a
statin, three antihypertensive drugs, and folic acid. It was postulated that
taking this pill would reduce cardiovascular events by 80 percent. It would
certainly reduce cholesterol and stop high blood pressure as well as making the
blood less likely to form clots. All theoretical ‘good medicine’.
Certainly this would be expensive good medicine, but there
are doubts that the world is ready to pay for such preventive measures. So
researchers used this concept to look at foods that have been shown to produce
health benefits. We all have to eat, so ‘healthy’ foods would not be an
extra drain on our finances, but what should be included in the “Polymeal”?
The researchers from the Erasmus University in Rotterdam came
up with a list of ingredients which were more natural, safer, and probably
tastier than the Polypill and could reduce cardiovascular disease by more than
75 percent.
Data on the ingredients of the Polymeal were taken from the
medical literature. The evidence-based recipe included wine, fish, dark
chocolate, fruits, vegetables, garlic, and almonds. Data from the Framingham
heart study (one of the forerunners in this preventive health research) and the
Framingham offspring study, were used to build life tables to postulate the
benefits of the Polymeal in the general population after age 50.
The results were spectacular. Combining all the ingredients
of the Polymeal would reduce cardiovascular events by 76 percent. For men,
taking the Polymeal daily represented an increase in total life expectancy of
6.6 years, an increase in life expectancy free from cardiovascular disease of 9
years, and for women 4.8 years increase in total life expectancy and a life free
from cardiovascular disease of 8.1 years.
So what is in the Polymeal recipe and what will each
ingredient do? First off, daily consumption of 150 ml of wine reduces
cardiovascular disease by 32 percent. Fish (114 gm) eaten four times a week
reduces cardiovascular disease by 14 percent. 100 gm of dark chocolate eaten
daily reduces systolic blood pressure by 5.1 mm mercury and diastolic blood
pressure by 1.8 mm equating to a reduction in cardiovascular disease events of
21 percent. A total of 400 gm of fruit and vegetables consumed daily produced a
reduction in blood pressure similar to that observed with chocolate (4.0 mm
mercury systolic blood pressure and 1.5 mm mercury diastolic blood pressure),
producing a likely reduction in cardiovascular disease of 21 percent.
Daily consumption of 2 gm of fresh garlic reduced total
cholesterol concentrations and they assumed a reduction of 25 percent in
cardiovascular disease events for garlic. Consumption of 68 gm of almonds daily
should produce a 12 percent reduction and if you like you can throw in olive
oil, echium oil, soya oil, soya beans, tomatoes, oat bran, cereals, nuts, tea,
and chickpeas too for extra benefits.
So there you have it - the wine and chocolate diet to good
health! And thank the Dutch researchers!
Learn to Live to Learn: A natural disaster, a human tragedy
with Andrew Watson
At the outset, I would like to add my voice of
condolence to the victims of the tsunami in general and the people of Thailand
in particular. A ‘natural’ disaster has become a very human tragedy and
those of us who remain physically untouched by it, remain profoundly moved and
emotionally affected. Even as the victims continue to be discovered, a period of
mourning has begun. In Jerusalem, when disaster struck, as it did with horrible
regularity, albeit of a very human (indeed inhuman) design, the communities came
together to share their grief. It was a necessary first step towards healing. I
know that the schools of the region will make their feelings known on an
individual basis but I hope that I speak for all the educational community when
I say to all those affected by the tsunami, “we are with you”.
Embracing spiritual exploration
This may be controversial, but when I consider how the
approach to what I have termed, ‘Spiritual Exploration’ has changed from the
time I was in school, I sense that fear has dominated the agenda. Fear,
characterised by ignorance, of the positive message that spiritual exploration
can provide.
I’m doing it myself by using the term ‘spiritual
exploration’ when I really mean ‘religious education’. For fear of causing
offence, or misunderstanding.
Over the last twenty years or so, the politicisation of
religious education has coincided with a culture of immediate gratification,
proliferation of means of mass communication, wanton consumerism, idolatry of
actors, actresses, soccer stars. False idols and profits have marginalised
prophets. It was almost forty years ago that John Lennon illustrated the decline
of Christianity by proclaiming that the Beatles were “more popular that Jesus
Christ” (they sold more records but not as many books).
OK, so it doesn’t help that those running the religious
shows often seem to be speaking a different language, seem to be of and from a
different age, dressed in strange, unfamiliar, unfashionable garb, apparently
unable to provide answers to modern day questions. Behind in their marketing
strategies!
‘Liberal’ religious belief is out of fashion, primarily
because Western liberal humanist enlightenment appears to preclude belief in
something that cannot be rationalised or scientifically proven. Doubting
Thomas’s proliferate, on the grounds that they have no proof.
But religious belief and religious education goes beyond
epistemology. It is not just an exploration of spirituality, but a journey of
faith, an examination of the individual in the context of humanity and human
history. It is as if (and I am writing from a western point of view) the
planners and politicians have lost faith and sight in the purpose of providing a
forum for examining spiritual belief through Religious Education.
Or have they? Religious Education is in the English National
Curriculum, but so is something called PSHE (Personal, Social & Health
Education) and so is Citizenship, tacked on in typically English fashion as the
result of a perceived lack of ‘values’ in English society.
But hold on. What’s the point of having Religious Education
if not to imbue students with the basic tenets of living together in society in
peace and tolerance? To examine multifarious religious beliefs locally,
regionally and globally? What are the Ten Commandments if not rules for
co-existence? PSHE and Citizenship must be a cultural relativist’s idea of
heaven! Religious education without the religion!
Don’t tell me that in the international school system there
is no place for religious education. On the contrary. In Thailand, Buddhism
represents a beautiful, gentle opportunity to embark on spiritual exploration,
which can give students the opportunity of choosing a path to enlightenment of a
spiritual as well as a scientific dimension.
There are courses studied within international schools and
international education which deal with religion – for instance in the IB
diploma, the World Religions option and Islamic History course. But these are
optional, and the point I am making is, why?
In this century and the last, when so much of the conflict
seems to involve, if not be as a direct result of, religious intolerance of one
kind or another, why are we denying students the opportunity to not only learn
about comparative religions in the world, but heed the common message of them?
At a recent IB regional conference, I was surprised (and yet
shouldn’t have been) and disappointed that many were willing to voice their
resistance and opposition to ‘Faith’ schools (such as Christian, Muslim and
Jewish schools), on the grounds that an ‘international’ course like the IB
diploma, which preaches tolerance and intercultural understanding, was
incompatible with schools whose identity was defined by religion.
Some found the idea of having an International Faith School
oxymoronic. Nothing could be further from the truth and the fact that
experienced educators were willing to make such statements merely served to
illustrate to me how rotten the religious education barrel had become.
Faith schools have an absolutely vital role to play in
affirming students, families and communities who wish to maintain strong
religious affiliation and at the same time, through the teaching of an
externally authorised course, they provide an opportunity for students to
embrace the central tenets of their religion through the educational programme.
I’d go as far as to say that not only are the central
aspects to international schools (tolerance and the celebration of diversity)
compatible with Faith schools, but they existed in religion long before they
appeared in national and international educational curricula.
Denying our students the opportunity to be guided through
spiritual exploration, is akin to espousing sightlessness and avoiding the
issues just won’t do.
Who on earth would say, “We’ve been blind for this long,
what difference does another few months or years make?” when the possibility
of the gift of vision being returned exists?
Next week: Dr Virachai, the honorary consul
 Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
I do so much enjoy reading your column both for the problems that are raised
for your advice and the pithy answers that you mostly provide. I even find
your ongoing relationship with ‘mistersingha’ more entertaining than any
‘soap’ on TV, he’s so full of promise(s) isn’t he? But for downright
good sense and excellent advice you will be hard put to better that which
you gave to John the Singaporean on the 10th of last month. He, who’s so
afraid that his plans for a loving, comfortable retirement have been
dismissed by his current partner, would do well to heed your advice. No
attempt to have fun at John’s expense was made and the advice for him to
enjoy the days available whilst making other financial plans for the future
which he may or may not live to enjoy was spot on. Good on you Hillary, keep
it up, you are one of the Pattaya Mail’s stars.
David, Western Australia
Dear David from WA,
Oooohhh! Hillary is all thrilled. Finally I am a “star”! Thank you,
Petal, thank you! I do try to tailor my advice relevant to the incoming
queries, and it is nice that some of the readers can see this. Let us hope
that John the Singaporean does heed my words. However, as far as that
mistersingha person is concerned, and all his empty promises, I shall
continue to treat him with ignore until he makes good with the choccies and
champers. Did you see last year where he offered to send a small bottle of
Baby Cham? Baby Cham! Probably the second worst fizz-water in the world. If
you don’t believe me, you had a concoction that came from Australia called
Barossa Pearl that was even worse!
Dear Hillary,
Whilst not actually decrepit, we, the two undersigned,
fall into the category highlighted by Judgmental John, in that our legal
partners are both very young and indeed very beautiful - one Thai and one
Filipina and certainly bringing joy and happiness into our lives. (John
wrote to Hillary before the New Year saying, “I see these old farangs
walking around everywhere with what we back home in the UK call ‘trophy
brides’. Surely they don’t think that these girls actually like going
around with these old geezers? They only look at them as ATM’s and as soon
as they have emptied it, they’re off.”)
Both of us have lived in Asia for 30 years, both have
worked here in senior management positions, with considerable exposure to
the Asian environment and not an easy mark for gold diggers. In general,
young men are not preferred by the young ladies of Thailand because they are
seen to be very noisy, often drunk, naive, inconsiderate, cocky, and mainly
out for as much sex as they can get, for as low a cost as possible. Rippling
steroid induced muscles, heavily tattooed with inappropriate emblems do not
really make anyone really macho or attract women, panting for a
relationship. Judgmental John, obviously, has problems because, if he had
found his ideal companion he would not have the time to closely study us old
geezers and write to you, in criticism. It is clear that he is suffering
from an inferiority complex so perhaps should retreat to someplace of
meditation until he attains the age that would bring maturity and thus
attractiveness to the opposite sex. Sorry John, our brides do like being
with us, are very critical of those that snipe at our relationship and the
only ATMs in their lives is for the banks where they maintain their personal
accounts. Our suggestion Judgmental John, is put some pancake make up on
those tattoos, accept that one day you may be an old geezer looking for a
companion (without luck I am sorry to say if you do not change your
attitude), and go out and be nice to the girls. However, do not stop
watching us old geezers as you may learn from us! Oh and by the way, send
Hillary a bottle of Champagne for New Year. Hillary dear, love and kisses.
Jimmy and Tony
Dear Jimmy and Tony,
I am so happy to read your letter, Petals, and I am sure
that your wives are both as lucky as the pair of you appear to be. While
there are many tales of duplicity that come across my desk (makes a change
from chocolates and champagne which rarely come across my desk - especially
from mistersingha) there are probably far more examples of good strong
healthy relationships than otherwise. However, it is generally only those
that feel they have been hard done by that write in. The happy ones don’t
need advice. Everything in the garden is coming up rosy, generally without
the need for Vitamin V either.
I am glad the smug attitude of Judgmental John was enough
to spur you both into action. You both obviously have a good relationship
with your ladies that demonstrates that it is possible, for what is often
termed a ‘mixed’ marriage, to work. It depends upon the character of all
concerned in the relationship. Thank you for your letter on behalf of all
those who do not need my counsel (brilliant as it may be) and all the best
to all four of you in 2005.
Psychological Perspectives: Helping tsunami survivors deal with emotional trauma
by Michael Catalanello,
Ph.D.
Most of us, thankfully, have been spared
exposure to a natural disaster like a severe earthquake or tsunami. As
such, it may be difficult for us to imagine the traumatic experiences and
emotional responses of the many thousands of survivors of the disaster, let
alone those who perished.
Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) sometimes, but not
always, results when a person witnesses the actual or threatened death or
serious injury to a person, or experiences a threat to his/her survival.
A person suffering from PTSD is usually troubled by
re-experiencing the traumatic event through obsessive thoughts, nightmares,
or flashbacks. He may be fearful and avoidant of objects or situations
which serve as reminders of the event. Survivors who depended upon the sea
for their livelihood, for example, may become fearful and reluctant to
return to their former activities in or around the sea.
The suddenness, violence, and uncontrollability of the
earthquake and tsunamis, the high death tolls and massive displacements
occurring as a consequence, guarantee that many survivors have or will
develop troubling symptoms like these. Rescue workers, as well as disaster
victims are at risk for developing the disorder in the aftermath of the
Asian tsunamis.
Fortunately, there are effective psychosocial and
medical interventions to help people suffering from PTSD. Relief
organizations have already begun to establish education and treatment
programs to help these individuals overcome their fears, and return to
their former way of life. If you know a tsunami survivor or relief worker
so affected, there are some things you too can do to help.
Being a calm and caring friend to the survivor can be of
great benefit. You can do this by simply being present with him, and by
demonstrating a willingness to listen to his story. Don’t just listen for
the content conveyed by words, but try to understand the nonverbal messages
contained within the person’s body language, gestures, and tone of voice.
Be aware of the emotions the person is experiencing. Get into the
person’s skin, so to speak, and try to understand the event as he does.
Be willing to allow silence to allow the survivor to get
in touch with his feelings about his experiences. Provide evidence of
listening through appropriate eye contact, facial expressions, and verbal
expressions like “yes,” “uh-huh,” etc. Active listening involves
occasionally paraphrasing ideas expressed by the person. This is best done
in a tentative fashion, allowing the person to correct any
misunderstandings. As you infer emotions such as anger, sadness, or fear,
you can identify those feelings to the person, allowing him the opportunity
to acknowledge or further clarify his emotional experience.
Resist the temptation to offer glib advice or clich้s.
Avoid saying things like, “I know exactly how you feel,” “It could
have been much worse,” “You can replace what you lost,” and “You
just need to get on with your life.”
Survivors may wonder if they are going crazy, or feel
guilty for surviving while so many others perished. It may be helpful to
reassure the survivor that his emotional distress is a common reaction to
such an uncommon experience as an earthquake and tsunami, and that he is
not going crazy. Survival guilt, severe depression, debilitating anxiety,
or suicidal impulses can be a difficult nut to crack for the untrained
person, and may signal a need for professional help. A primary care
physician typically provides an initial point of contact for persons
requiring mental health services.
Unfortunately, qualified mental health professionals are
in short supply in the part of the world affected by this disaster.
Further, social stigma and cultural norms may make it difficult for a
survivor to seek mental health assistance. In most cases, cultural norms
and preferences are to be respected. If the survivor has strong religious
or philosophical leanings, he can be directed to clergy and other religious
authorities, many of whom may be skilled in helping people with PTSD.
Perhaps it is most important for survivors to understand that, although
things for them may never be the same, their feelings will change and
things will undoubtedly get better. Further, with time and a bit of effort,
they can develop a much different understanding of the meaning of this
event, resulting in a sense of peace and emotional relief that might
currently seem to them unimaginable.
Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his home
State of Louisiana, USA. He is a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at
Asian University, Chonburi. Address questions and comments to him at [email protected]
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