BANGKOK, Thailand – The Thai stock market rebounded with renewed energy on Friday, September 5, as the SET Index rose 12.25 points to close at 1,264.80, with a trading value of 51.7 billion baht. The surge reflected investor optimism following the parliamentary vote that selected Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party, as Thailand’s 32nd Prime Minister.
Many securities analysts and brokerage firms share a positive short-term outlook, noting that political clarity and the new government—even with a short four-month term—could drive confidence and economic activity. Analysts predict the SET Index could approach the 1,300-point mark, just over 30 points from Friday’s close. The key question remains whether political momentum will be enough to push the index to that level.
The recent market activity is largely driven by investor psychology. With political uncertainty easing, worries over the 2026 budget are expected to dissipate, and the 157-billion-baht economic stimulus funds pending disbursement may be released to support existing projects. Investors anticipate that the Bhumjaithai government will prioritize visible economic results to pave the way for next year’s general election.
However, several headwinds remain. Thailand’s economy is facing a slowdown, with GDP projected to grow only around 2% this year, and possibly just 1% in the second half due to weaker exports affected by trade retaliation measures. International tourist arrivals are also expected to fall short of forecasts, foreign investor participation in the stock market remains limited, and global economic uncertainty, especially from the U.S., continues to weigh.
Falling interest rates, however, could provide some support. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 0.25% in September, while the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee may lower rates once or twice in October and December, potentially redirecting liquidity into the stock market.
Despite optimism, most brokers remain cautious. They have set a year-end target of 1,300 points, with a few more bullish forecasts projecting up to 1,350 points, compared to the 1,400-point close at the end of 2024. Analysts are likely to revise their year-end targets after the new government settles in.
The Bhumjaithai government faces high stakes. Its performance over the next four months could influence investor confidence and shape political outcomes in the next general election. The stock market will serve as a barometer of the government’s effectiveness, particularly in reviving the economy and addressing cost-of-living concerns.
The SET Index’s 12-point surge on Friday was largely a short-term reaction to political clarity and speculative trading. Whether it will climb to 1,300 points will depend on the government’s tangible economic performance—or at least on how convincingly the new finance minister can restore investor confidence.
