BANGKOK, Thailand – Thailand is steering through economic headwinds with increasing caution, as the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) slashed its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 2.8% to just 1.8%. The sobering adjustment, announced Monday, reflects mounting global trade disruptions, especially the looming threat of U.S. tariffs, and the heavy burden of household and business debt.
Despite a 3.1% growth in the first quarter—buoyed by strong performance in agriculture—the NESDC warned of gathering storm clouds in the second half of the year. Manufacturing remains sluggish, and the broader economic winds are shifting in line with global slowdowns.
“Thailand is facing strong crosscurrents,” said NESDC Secretary-General Danucha Pichayanan. “While government spending and tourism offer some buoyancy, we must navigate carefully through volatile global trade and rising debt levels.”
The agency emphasized the need for businesses to brace for rough waters ahead, urging preparation for potential trade disruptions and caution in financial planning. Meanwhile, the government is expected to unveil support measures following high-level discussions scheduled for later Monday.
With public debt near its ceiling and consumer spending weighed down by inflation and credit constraints, Thailand’s economic vessel must maneuver skillfully to avoid the rocks of recession. The revised 1.8% growth projection is, according to the NESDC, a realistic compass point in today’s turbulent seas.
As global tides shift unpredictably, Thailand’s economy may not be sinking—but it’s certainly sailing through stormy waters.
