BANGKOK, Thailand – Thailand’s stock market outlook remains positive in August, supported by a broader recovery in corporate earnings, improving foreign investment flows, and expectations of continued growth in key sectors, according to Bualuang Securities. Piriyapol Kongwanich, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management at Bualuang Securities, said the earnings recovery is expanding beyond a limited number of industries, marking a shift toward a broader earnings recovery.
Market earnings forecasts have improved, with SET earnings per share (EPS) estimates rising 4.2% in July and 6.3% from the beginning of the year. The upward revisions have expanded from energy, petrochemicals, and packaging sectors to include hotels, transportation, banking, retail, and finance. This improvement in earnings revision breadth has helped reduce downside risks for the Thai stock market.
Piriyapol said previous global manufacturing recovery cycles have typically attracted around 162–200 billion baht in foreign capital inflows over 10–12 months, driven by sectors such as energy, petrochemicals, and packaging, which together account for around 28% of total market earnings. He added that the global manufacturing cycle remains supportive, with the global manufacturing PMI reaching 52.2 in June, marking the 11th consecutive month of expansion.
If the global manufacturing upcycle continues, foreign investment is expected to keep flowing into Thai equities, particularly global-facing companies. Foreign investors bought Thai stocks worth around 49 billion baht in July and 76 billion baht since the beginning of the year, reversing last year’s net selling of approximately 110 billion baht.
Bualuang Securities recommends a strategy combining defensive dividend stocks with high-growth opportunities, focusing on four investment themes. The first theme is Thailand’s next power infrastructure investment cycle, supported by progress on the Power Development Plan (PDP) and Direct Power Purchase Agreements (Direct PPA). New investment is expected to expand into transmission systems, benefiting companies such as GULF.
The second theme focuses on high-dividend stocks with strong earnings, particularly telecommunications companies. The sector is expected to benefit from rising average revenue per user (ARPU) and declining network costs. Bualuang expects ADVANC’s second-quarter 2026 profit to grow 24% year-on-year, while TRUE’s profit is forecast to rise 48% year-on-year.
The third theme is tourism recovery driven by government policy. Hotel operators are expected to pass their earnings bottom in the second quarter of 2026 before entering the high season later this year. Government tourism stimulus programs, including the “Thai Travel Plus” domestic tourism campaign, are expected to support hotel operators. The program is expected to offer 500,000 travel privileges, with the government covering 50% of accommodation costs up to 3,000 baht per person, along with a 500-baht e-voucher for food and travel services.
The fourth theme is selective consumer recovery, with certain segments showing stronger growth despite uneven overall consumption. Bualuang highlighted opportunities in IT retail, department stores, and energy drink companies such as CBG. The brokerage expects improving earnings, returning foreign investment, and policy support to create a more favorable environment for Thai equities in the second half of 2026.
