PATTAYA, Thailand – Foreign policy analysts and international financial experts have weighed in on the most intense Thai-Cambodian conflict in 14 years, warning of its uneven impact on tourism. While both countries face fallout, Cambodia is bearing the heavier burden — especially along its once-bustling border zones.
According to geopolitical scholars and economic think tanks, the skirmishes have not only triggered travel warnings from foreign governments, but also dented international confidence — at a time when both nations are depending heavily on tourism to support post-pandemic recovery.
Despite Thailand being more frequently associated with the conflict in international headlines, data suggests Cambodia’s tourism industry is suffering more severely. Unlike Thailand, Cambodia lacks robust tourism promotion agencies, large fiscal reserves, and strong public welfare systems to cushion the shock.
One major blow: the sharp decline in Thai nationals crossing over to gamble at casinos along the Cambodian side of the border — a critical source of income for border economies like Poipet. These crossings have halted almost entirely since border closures took effect, leading to severe revenue losses.
In contrast, Thailand’s main tourism hubs — such as Bangkok, Pattaya, Chiang Mai, and Phuket — are far removed from the conflict zone. Bangkok is situated over 260 kilometers from the affected border region, while Pattaya lies on the opposite eastern coastline, and Phuket is in the south along the Andaman coast. These cities continue to generate the highest tourist income in the country, according to data from The Vacationer, a global travel platform.
“Thailand has both core and casual tourist bases,” said one analyst, “while Cambodia still relies heavily on short-term traffic — much of it from across the border.”
Although the conflict has stirred short-term instability, full-scale war is considered unlikely. Thailand also holds a significant advantage in military power across all dimensions.
Economic and political incentives on both sides continue to outweigh the desire for prolonged confrontation. However, analysts caution that broader regional tensions — including disputes in the South China Sea and Myanmar’s internal crisis — could complicate de-escalation efforts.
In terms of GDP contribution, Thailand’s tourism sector makes up around 12% of the national economy, supported by over 35 million international visitors in 2024. Cambodia’s tourism share stands at about 9% of GDP, with just 6.7 million foreign arrivals. The disparity in both scale and resilience means that while both nations face headwinds, Cambodia may have far fewer tools to weather the storm.
