JD Power casts doubt


It appears that every manufacturer is touting just how ‘green’ they are, with Hybrids on the lot today and EV’s just around the corner tomorrow.  But is that concept one which reflects reality?  Or is it some sort of hype to boost sales, when their variants with internal combustion engines are cheaper?

The study ‘Drive Green 2020: More Hope than Reality’ concludes global hybrid and EV demand is likely to account for only a small proportion of total vehicle sales over the next decade, despite multi-billion-dollar investments and fast-paced development in the car industry, according to global marketing information company JD Power and Associates who commissioned the research.

JD Power’s research postulates that hybrids and EVs combined will account for just 7.3 percent – or 5.2 million units – of the 70.9 million passenger vehicles forecast to be sold in 2020.  In other words, 92 percent of new vehicles at the end of the next decade will still be gasoline/diesel powered.  So much for the oil supply dwindling.  JD Power’s study obviously does not feel we will be forced into driving EVs.

However, Nissan-Renault, for example, is expecting EVs alone to account for around 10 percent of total vehicle sales by the end of the decade – while JD Power estimates only 1.8 percent.  But even if we accept Nissan-Renault’s figures, that still leaves 90 percent conventional gasoline/diesel power.

EV’s are still being developed (Nissan Leaf, Chevrolet Volt, Tesla for example), but it looks very doubtful that they will be a dominant part of the automotive future.