BANGKOK, Thailand – Thai Airways International Public Company Limited (THAI) is set for its second major share lock-up release on August 4, with nearly 19.8 billion shares previously held by creditors becoming eligible for sale, raising investor concerns over potential market pressure. The shares, totaling 19.802 billion, represent around 70% of THAI’s issued and paid-up shares. They were issued to creditors under the airline’s business rehabilitation plan, with a conversion cost of 2.5452 baht per share.
The first lock-up release took place on February 3, involving 6.6 billion shares. For the second round, THAI plans to facilitate sales mainly through institutional investors in Thailand and large foreign funds via Big Lot transactions to reduce the impact on the market price. The company said shareholders will not gradually sell the unlocked shares through normal trading channels. Market analysts have offered different views on the possible impact.
Tisco Securities expects selling pressure to be limited compared with the first lock-up expiry. The brokerage noted that savings cooperatives, which were among the key groups holding THAI shares, had already sold part of their holdings before the second release. If additional sales were planned, the market would likely have received signals beforehand. Tisco maintains a “Buy” recommendation on THAI with a target price of 7.80 baht, saying the airline is now stronger following debt restructuring. The brokerage highlighted Thailand’s continued popularity as a tourism destination, THAI’s extensive international network, improved cost controls, organizational restructuring, upgraded services, and fleet modernization as factors supporting long-term growth.
However, Krungsri Securities warned that selling pressure could be stronger than during the first lock-up release. The brokerage said the market environment has changed, with THAI facing new challenges including higher fuel costs linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and weaker passenger numbers. During the April-June 2026 period, THAI passenger numbers reportedly declined 8% year-on-year, putting pressure on second-quarter performance.
Krungsri also noted that the unlocked shares originated from debt-to-equity conversion and were acquired at 2.5452 baht per share, meaning holders could realize significant gains if they choose to sell. Despite the potential pressure, Krungsri maintained a “Hold” recommendation with a target price of 5.70 baht, saying investors should monitor THAI’s share performance after the second lock-up expiration.
The upcoming share release marks another important test for THAI after its rehabilitation process, with investors watching whether creditor sales will create short-term volatility or whether the airline’s recovery story can continue to support the stock.
