PATTAYA, Thailand — Kasikornbank (KBANK) expects the Thai baht to trade within a range of 32.40–33.20 per US dollar during the week of May 4–8, compared with the closing level of 32.55 on April 30.
The bank noted that the baht initially strengthened earlier in the week as investors sold US dollars ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting. However, it later weakened after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Thailand kept the policy rate unchanged at 1.00%, while adopting a more cautious economic outlook.
The central bank highlighted risks from slowing domestic growth, particularly pressures linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Regional currencies, including the baht, also came under pressure as global oil prices surged. At the same time, the US dollar strengthened due to safe-haven demand amid ongoing uncertainty over peace negotiations between the United States and Iran.
Market sentiment was further influenced by the Federal Reserve’s policy stance, which suggested interest rates may remain elevated for an extended period. Fed officials also expressed differing views on the future policy path, reflecting uncertainty over inflation risks that could rise due to geopolitical developments.
The baht touched a one-month low of 32.85 before recovering slightly toward the end of the week, supported by movements in the Japanese yen after Japanese authorities warned against excessive currency volatility.
Looking ahead, key factors for the baht include Thailand’s April inflation data, foreign capital flows, developments in the Middle East, and comments from US Federal Reserve officials.
In the US, investors will monitor several major indicators including factory orders, job openings, new home sales, ISM and services PMI data, April non-farm payrolls, unemployment figures, and weekly jobless claims. Market participants will also watch services PMI readings from China and the Eurozone for additional global economic signals.
