PATTAYA, Thailand – The Economic and Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce has lowered Thailand’s GDP growth projection for 2025 to 1.9% from the previous estimate of 2.0%, citing the economic damage caused by recent severe flooding in the southern provinces. Hat Yai district in Songkhla, a major commercial hub, was particularly affected.
“We estimate that the economic losses from the flooding in Hat Yai over the past month exceed 40 billion baht, which is expected to reduce GDP by approximately 0.22%,” said Wichian Kaewsombat, Assistant Director of the Economic Forecasting Center.
Additional negative factors influencing the revision include a slight drop in international tourist arrivals, now expected at 32.8 million instead of the previously forecast 33 million, partially due to the southern floods. Tourist spending per capita has also decreased as visitors become more cautious with expenses. Furthermore, public sector demand in the third quarter of 2025 contracted by nearly 4%, contributing to the downward adjustment of GDP.
Looking ahead to 2026, Thailand’s GDP growth is projected to slow further to 1.6%. Key risks include potential trade barriers, financial constraints, high household debt, delays in the 2027 fiscal budget affecting public investment in Q4/2026, and ongoing tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border, which could impact trade and supply chains.
