BANGKOK, Thailand – Kasikorn Research expects the Thai market to closely monitor global gold prices, foreign fund flows, and the US government shutdown this week (October 13–17), along with statements from Federal Reserve officials. The baht is expected to trade in a range of 32.50–33.00 per US dollar, while the SET Index may find support at 1,270 and 1,245 points and resistance at 1,300 and 1,315 points.
Last week, the baht briefly strengthened to 32.40 per dollar after the Bank of Thailand left its policy rate unchanged at 1.50%, before weakening again amid concerns over slowing economic growth. The baht hit a two-month low of 32.82 per dollar before partially rebounding to 32.70 per dollar by Friday’s close.
Thai equities were volatile last week amid lack of new market catalysts and negative domestic inflation for September, raising concerns of potential deflation. The SET Index peaked at 1,317.88 points midweek but fell sharply after regulatory measures affected a major parts manufacturer and concerns arose over governance issues at a leading airline, closing at 1,286.98 points, down 0.51%.
This week, Kasikorn Securities expects Thai stocks to trade within the support and resistance levels mentioned above. Key external factors to watch include the US government shutdown and foreign capital flows, along with foreign economic data such as August industrial production in Japan and the Eurozone, September consumer price indices in the Eurozone, and September Chinese economic indicators, including exports, producer and consumer price indices, and yuan-denominated lending.
