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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
Out with the Old and In with the New
MBMG Group were fortunate that, despite the recent troubles
in Thailand, its affiliated portfolio manager, and managing director of
award-winning MitonOptimal Guernsey, Scott Campbell, continued with his trip to
Bangkok and presented his views to more than 150 attendees at a series of
briefings across the city and in Pattaya.
Thailand’s volatile political environment combined with the
incredible pressure that was building in the debt-ravaged Greek economy, prior
to the riots and multi-billion dollar international bailout package, created an
anxious backdrop that highlighted the palpable fears of local investors and
raised the questions:
* Is the Western world going to be dragged down into renewed
recession by the contagion of the sovereign debt crisis that looks set to
consume Europe?
* What does that mean living here? Will the momentum of the
Asian recovery be sufficient to outstrip the potential second fall of the West
and how will domestic political risk affect the Thai economy?
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the three-time S&P-award-winning
Campbell says that even though foreign investors remain bullish on the growth of
emerging markets, Thailand might fail to capitalize on its strengths to become
one of the best investment markets in Asia if politics continues to weigh on the
economy.
The currency markets provide an indication that country risk
has already affected Thailand’s performance and recovery over the past year or
so. Despite complaints from local business chiefs and exporters, any suggestion
that the central bank has been intervening in the money market to bolster the
baht seems very unlikely given the very visible build-up of dollar reserves that
have been generated by ‘selling’ baht. In reality, Thailand’s seemingly “strong”
baht has actually underperformed the region’s other currencies by about ten
percent.
“That is almost entirely down to the local political
situation. Currency is a barometer of political risk and the Thai Baht has been
pretty much flat since last year [on a trade-weighted basis]. If the political
risk gets sorted out, then you may see the Thai Baht appreciate just to catch up
with the other regional currencies which it has lagged during this time,’’
according to Campbell, adding that the fundamentals for the whole Asian region
are still very positive.
Campbell added, ‘’Asia, along with other emerging markets,
will continue to be the best place for investment for the next 30 to 40 years.
Over the past 10 years, western stock markets have done nothing while Asian
stock markets have grown three-to-fourfold.’’
Thailand is certainly part of that developmental shift, but
political uncertainty has dampened economic growth since problems arose in 2004,
a point reinforced by observers such as Templeton’s Mark Mobius and John Sheehan
of Global Markets Asia. The turbulence has not only slowed Thailand, it has
enabled some other countries in the region to overtake South-east Asia’s
second-largest economy in terms of growth. This can be seen by comparing the
kingdom’s economic growth, foreign-exchange rates and stock market valuations
with those of comparable economies in the region.
‘’If you take the superior GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
growth rate of a jurisdiction like the Philippines and apply this higher rate to
Thailand’s growth from 2005, it can be seen that by the end of 2008 Thailand’s
GDP would be somewhere between US$30 billion and $40 billion higher than now,’’
says Sheehan.
Problems in Europe loom large on the economic radar, however.
Even though Greece received the largest ever financial bailout package offered
to a single country, it failed to yield the desired bounce in the markets.
Despite the huge problems that Greece faces, its public debt, which is
equivalent to about 125% of GDP, is a small proportion of the EU’s overall
deficit and the fears that the contagion will spread to Portugal, Spain, Ireland
and even the UK, are very real.
“Some people are predicting that in the long-term we won’t
remember the problems of the last few years as a financial crisis, because that
will be subsumed by the emerging sovereign debt crisis in Europe,” says
Campbell.
He believes there is at least a 30% chance of the established
Western economies being dragged back into recession by the problems in Europe
and possibilities of a hollow recovery. Whether this will happen or not should
become clear in the figures of major economies, such as the US, when they are
published in the early second half of the year, with job creation and growth key
indicators to follow.
Regardless of the situation in Europe, the clear fact is that
Asian economies and other emerging markets will dominate the global markets for
many years to come, a time when the former world powerhouses will continue their
decline. Campbell says this is down to simple fundamentals and economic cycles.
The Kondratieff Seasons (see graphic), a long-term economic model that
essentially explains boom and bust, give a clear outlook on investment
opportunities and asset and equity allocations. This combined with a look at
population growth, development and demographics paints a positive picture for
Asia.
‘’The region is exporting within itself. This has shown that
Asia is much less dependent on the west than it was which is very positive.
Asian demographics also are positive with the population distribution being
similar to that of the United States Baby Boom era. An economy that has a bigger
chunk of people at the bottom [age group] is in a much better shape than the
economy that has bigger chunk of people at the top. India, for example, will
progress through the baby boom stage and isn’t projected to reach the top heavy
state that is starting to impact on the growth of the US today until 2050. In
long term trends this is a theme very supportive of emerging markets growth for
another 40 years or so.’’
“Of course, there will be business cycles, stock market
crashes and credit crunches, but for the next 40 years or so, until the major
Asian economies get top-heavy, the region will be the driver of global growth,”
he adds.
This changing global dynamic is seeing other economic
phenomena migrate from the West to the East. “In the past, a high-risk portfolio
was emerging market bonds, Japanese equities and developing market property. At
the same time a low-risk one contained US government bonds, German blue-chip
companies and UK property but now, the situation is completely reversed.’’
Asian commercial property is particularly attractive in many
cases with low gearing ratios and good yield carry. And while Asian growth may
lead to higher interest rates, the strong carry differential will be partially
protected by economic growth leading to higher rents and occupancy rates.
Campbell remains bullish on gold as one of the allocated
asset classes and based on a number of technical and fundamental factors expects
gold prices to ultimately rise to between USD2,000 and USD2,500 an ounce. Gold
has been one of the asset classes that have helped Campbell to achieve
exceptional outperformance over the last ten years; a period in which the Dow
Jones Industrial average has fallen by around 30% and the gold price has
increased almost fivefold from its lowest point to current levels of around
USD1,200 an ounce.
From a personal investment point of view, expatriates living
in Thailand need to have a balanced global portfolio, diversified across cash,
gold, hedge funds and property. But they should also try to keep their regular
costs and expenses covered off in Thai baht to reduce currency risk.
If you live in an emerging market and you have liabilities,
costs and debts, you need to match those off in the local currency. If your
expenses are in Thai Baht, they should be covered off in Thai Baht. The reason
why people traditionally did it the other way round is because it made sense
when the emerging markets were in a disinflationary cycle while the west was
bullish - but now it is the other way round.
People who have investments and savings in western currencies
would do well to hedge those risks by looking at strong Asian currencies such as
the Singapore Dollar. Campbell actually manages one of the only global funds to
hedge in Thai Baht and Singapore Dollars.
Despite the current global and local uncertainties, Asia and
Thailand remain strong investment markets, says Campbell, “If you’re living in
this part of the world it is a very positive thing. It is where all the growth
and the change is going to be.”
What is the best way to avoid any pitfalls? Follow the Scott
Campbell credo of multi-manager, multi-asset alpha allocation in the currency
that best suits your individual needs.
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
The Twelve Commandments
I realize that the historic Ten Commandments have been popularized in
some religions, but that does not stop me from proposing my 12
Commandments, as these are not rules for living, but merely rules to get
better pictures.
While there are plenty of photography books for sale
in the bookstores, most of those are of the genre, How To Photograph
Mountain Lions or similar. (The answer is with a very long lens, don’t
bother buying the book.)
So here are my 12 commandments, which if you follow
them through, I will guarantee you will get better photographs. And get
more fun out of your photography.
The first is simply to take photographs every day.
Photography, like any sport, recreation or pursuit is something where
the more you do it and practice it, the better you get. With memory
cards and the like, it is no more expensive to shoot four as it does to
shoot one!
The one major fault in most amateur photographs is
taking the shot from too far away. From now on, make the subject the
“hero” and walk in several meters closer to make the subject fill the
frame.
Focusing! With modern auto-focus cameras the most
obvious focusing problem is where the subject is off-center. The magic
eye doesn’t know this and focuses on the central background, leaving
your close-up subject soft and blurry. Focus on the subject and use the
focus lock facility of your camera.
Tripods I mentioned frequently, but one of these will
expand your picture taking no end. Camera shake becomes a thing of the
past, and you will take more time to compose your shots.
Always carry a spare memory card. There is nothing
worse than trying to delete on the run following the shot of a lifetime.
Keep your interest and pride in your work by making
enlargements of your better photos. At around 80 baht for most places,
this is very cheap and enlargements do make good presents at Xmas time
too.
We all get lazy and it is too easy to end up just
taking every picture in the horizontal (landscape) format. Make it a
habit to always take at least two shots of each subject - one in the
horizontal format and the other in the vertical. You can get some
surprising results that way. Don’t be lazy - do it!
With color photography, which covers about 99.99
percent of most people’s pictures these days, the one major factor to
give your skies and seas and scenery some color oomph is the use of a
polarizing filter. Get one and use it every time the sun shines.
You will always miss some “classic” shots and regret
it later, but you certainly will never get them if you don’t have a
camera with you. With so many incredible photo opportunities in
Thailand, you should be ready at all times!
To give your daytime shots some extra sparkle, use
“fill-in” flash. Most new cameras have a little setting that will do
this automatically for you - even with point and shooters. If you
haven’t, then spend some time learning how to do it. It’s worth it when
you see the results you get.
To give yourself the impetus to go out and take
photos, develop a project and spend your leisure time building up the
images. It can be flowers or fashion, cars or canaries, but fix on
something and follow it through. It’s worth it, just for the fact that
it makes you become an “enquiring” photographer.
Finally, at the end of every year, give the camera a
birthday by buying it some new batteries. You won’t have a problem
damaging the sensitive innards with neglected battery acid and the
camera’s light metering system will work correctly every time. It’s
cheap insurance.
Here is the list.
1. Take more shots
2. Walk several meters closer
3. Use the focus lock
4. Buy a tripod
5. Carry a spare memory card
6. Make enlargements of your better prints
7. Use different formats
8. Use a polarizing filter
9. Carry your camera with you
10. Use the flash during the day
11. Develop a project
12. Change the batteries
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Viagorous exercise?
The headline this week should be enough to get the interest
of some of the older chaps out there. Correct? Unfortunately I can take no
credit for the catchy wording, this was something I stole from our Miss
Hillary, and how she knows about this, I dare not ask.
Now ‘exercise’ is something that is talked about, but
most people equate this with gymnasiums. Some of my friends attend these
sweat palaces on a regular basis, and if nothing else, they are getting some
regular exercise at the same time. I too have tried them, but I am afraid
that pedaling a stationary bicycle to nowhere does not hold my attention for
long.
Unfortunately the commonest advice a doctor gives out at
the end of the year is to lose weight and get some exercise. Was that part
of the advice after your annual physical check-up? Very likely.
However, there seems to be very little real understanding
of what exercise should consist of, how often, what type, how long and what
about sex? However, getting a little serious, exercise will be good for you,
provided that you pick a form of exercise that is not harmful for you!
Now I know that looks as if I have put my money on both
horses in the race, but take that sentence at its face value. Enough
research has been done to show that regular exercise is beneficial for
everybody, in both the physical and psychological aspects, but, and it is a
big ‘but’, all forms of exercise have relative bodily risks, and this has to
be taken into account before you buy a pair of expensive jogging shoes and
tackle a 10 km trot in the middle of the day. True stories - a medical
colleague in Australia took up playing squash when he turned 50 and dropped
dead on the court of a heart attack, and another acquaintance of mine turned
40, decided he wasn’t fit, bought a bicycle to ride to work each day and was
run over by a bus.
I read an article that advised non-slippery shoes for the
novice exerciser and suggested you choose appropriate exercise according to
your ability. Never exceed your limit. Remember that it is not the harder
the better. If you have acute medical problems (such as fever, or pain),
stop exercising. If you have chronic medical conditions (such as
hypertension, diabetes, ischemic heart disease and arthritis), seek advice
from your doctor or physiotherapist beforehand. All of these I agree with.
If you are happy to take your body to your medical advisor when it is sick,
take it back to your doctor for advice on how to tone it up as well.
The form of exercise should be one that you enjoy, and it
may be gymnasium work, or jogging, or walking, or swimming or something else
reasonably vigorous. It should be such that you raise a sweat, but not to
the point of dehydration! Do not wait until you are thirsty. Take
appropriate breaks. Do not over-exert yourself. Forget about “powering
through the pain barrier”. Leave that for drug-fuelled cyclists in France.
As well as the form of exercise, there is the frequency.
At least three times per week, 20-30 minutes (or more) is necessary each
time, to derive the maximum benefit. But always remember, if there is
dizziness, fainting, shortness of breath, chest pain, vomiting, nausea or
severe pain during exercise, stop exercising immediately and seek medical
advice as soon as possible.
Now I did mention horizontal folk dancing and some of you
have been impatiently reading, while nervously fiddling with your expensive
packet of Viagras, Kanagras, Cialis and other lead-in-your-pencil
medications (I draw the line at tiger willy). OK, what about sex? The
advisability of this form of exercise when you have some chronic complaint
(such as hypertension, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, etc.), should be
part of the advice you get from your doctor beforehand. The danger of over
the counter willy stiffeners is that you don’t get advice with them.
A fitter body means better sex. OK?
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
As my computer was down, I used my husband’s lap top which he
had left at home between trips. I clicked on his ‘favorites’ and was taken aback
by the number of porn sites he has been visiting. Is this something I should
worry about? Or has he tired of me (we have been married for 14 years)? He has
been lusting after all these women dressed in lingerie and stockings, and I
don’t even possess a pair of stockings in retaliation. My girlfriends said to
just ignore it, all males like to fantasize and I should do nothing. I don’t
know if they mean that, or have they got designs on my husband? This does upset
me. What do you think I should do? I am worrying myself sick over it.
Marje
Dear Marje,
The first piece of advice I have for you is to stop
snooping in your husband’s lap top. You may be married, but everyone, including
spouses, is entitled to some privacy. The second piece of advice I am giving you
is to stop discussing your private lives with your girlfriends. After all, how
do you know that some of them haven’t got the lingerie and stockings already.
The reason there is so much porn available, and thousands
of sites, is because your husband, and people like him, need some kind of
outlet, or respite from the stresses of today’s living. For most men, it is just
a fantasy, as your girlfriends said, but having said all that, if he is spending
much of his salary on these sites, which can happen, let me tell you, Petal,
then this viewing of porn has become an addiction, which may require some sexual
counseling. Check the credit card entries, this may give you some idea of the
perceived problem or otherwise, but be aware any entries from these sites will
not state “Porno Pix Pty”.
Dear Hillary,
I am a middle aged woman from the UK and I have a Thai
boyfriend who is a few years younger than me. OK, quite a few years younger than
me, but we enjoy each other’s company and seem well suited to each other in
personality. I’m not the one for wild drinking parties or drugs, and neither is
he. He satisfies me in other ways too, I am sure you know what I mean. I enjoy
him. However, when we go anywhere, like to a restaurant, I have to put up with
people whispering behind my back, as if I have committed a crime or something,
when these self same people are there with their very much younger Thai
girlfriends. What’s sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander they say. Why do
people carry on like this, Hillary? Do you know?
Jenny
Dear Jenny,
Anyone who dares to do something out of the ordinary gets
disparaging comments from others. The same chaps who take their Thai girlfriends
to the UK get the same treatment as you are getting now. “Trophy wives” is the
label they get, so yours is a “trophy husband”. In most cases it is simply just
jealousy, so ignore them and continue to enjoy your life and your boyfriend, my
Petal. When you’re finished with him, you can always send him on over to me!
Dear Hillary,
I was in Bangkok last week, staying at one of the better
hotels (I won’t say which one), and went to the hotel’s own disco. Long story
short, I ended up having a few drinks with a young lady and invited her to stay
the night with me, but as we came up from the disco we were set upon by the
night staff who demanded I pay 1,000 baht for her to stay with me and also she
had to leave her ID card with them. I have always believed that when you order a
double-bed room, the second person was covered in the price. Is this not the
current way in Thailand? I also believe it is not a good idea to leave your
personal details with anyone, such as the Thai ID card, such as was demanded of
my girlfriend. Is this normal, or was I just being ripped off? I did pay and she
did leave her ID.
James
Dear James,
You were being charged a “joiner” fee, which is pretty
standard in most up-market hotels. When you take someone in for the night, more
hotel facilities are used (towels, soaps, etc.), so I suppose they can justify
the fee. I have no idea whether that is the standard fee, but in general, the
more expensive the room, the higher the fee. As far as the ID card is concerned,
my Petal, be thankful that the hotel does this. What would you have done if your
disco companion which you say was your “girlfriend”, whom you had known for a
whole two hours, decamped in the middle of the night with all your valuables.
And all you know is that her name was Lek. At least with the ID recorded the
police do have a chance of finding your Lek from the 10,000 other Leks in
Bangkok, remembering that Lek is just her nickname, not her name of the ID. This
system is a safeguard for you, Petal.
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in Pattaya
The A-Team: (Scheduled)
US, Action/ Adventure/ Thriller – Follows the exploits of a
colorful team of former Special Forces soldiers who were set up for a
crime they did not commit. Going “rogue,” they utilize their unique
talents to try to clear their names and find the true culprit. Starring
Liam Neeson and Jessica Biel. Mixed or average reviews.
The Karate Kid / The Kung Fu Kid: (Scheduled)
US/ China, Action/ Drama/ Family/ Sport – Stars a talentless
kid who is only in films because his father is so powerful in the
business, and is producing it. The kid is a spoiled brat, in my opinion,
and if I could get away with it, I wouldn’t even acknowledge the film’s
existence. Also stars Jackie Chan, and it was filmed in Beijing
emphasizing tourism sites, which apparently the Chinese required as part
of the deal. Internationally the film tends to be referred to as “The
Kung Fu Kid” despite its origins as a remake, because in fact what the
kid does now is Kung Fu. Generally favorable reviews, which I can’t
believe.
Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time: US, Action/
Adventure/ Fantasy/ Romance – Some of the rather unique moves that you
make in the video game this film is based on, such as running along
walls at an angle to the ground, are duplicated here, much to my
delight, as I enjoy the game. And there’s some sense of the game’s
action and visuals. The film stars Jake Gyllenhaal, a quite luscious and
appealing Gemma Arterton, an enjoyable villain in Ben Kingsley, and a
lot of fun in the comedy of Alfred Molina. It’s a sort of old-style
Arabian Nights story, pretty silly really, set in medieval Persia when a
nefarious nobleman (Kingsley) covets the Sands of Time, a legendary
dagger that allows its possessor to turn back time. All the silliness is
okay, and beautifully done, and with delightful performances, but ruined
for me by the editing of the action sequences, of which there are a lot.
They’re all rapid-fire sequences devoid of any narrative structure,
giving only impressions of battle, with no idea of who is doing what to
whom. I don’t like this way of depicting action sequences – for me, it’s
made a number of halfway decent movies unwatchable. Mixed or average
reviews. Thai dubbed at Big C.
The Losers: US, Action/ Crime/ Mystery/ Thriller –
Delicious and delightful action film, full of fun. However, it’s an
action film, so if you’re not fond of fights and fury, you won’t be
amused. Of its type, it has a much better script than you have any right
to expect, full of laughs, and with a great attitude. It’s a tale of
betrayal and revenge, in which the members of an elite Special Forces
unit are sent to the Bolivian jungle on a search and destroy mission,
and are then double-crossed. Left for dead, the black ops team root out
those who targeted them for assassination. With an appealing Zoe Saldana
(of Avatar fame), and directed by relative newcomer Sylvain
White, definitely a director to watch. I particularly appreciate the
clear and understandable action sequences, where you can actually follow
what’s happening – and only semi-rapid editing. Very violent, so
be warned. Only mixed or average reviews, but I like it. Not at Big C.
Robin Hood: US, Action/ Drama – Robin Hood as
gladiator, brought to life by director Ridley Scott, and starring
Russell Crowe, all grunting and scowling. It does have impressive
visuals and some great sweeping battle scenes, and strong performances,
but it took me a long while to get interested in the main characters
during the back-story, and the 1199 AD events of King Richard on his
last crusade. However, once the story got going, I did get involved.
It’s loud, noisy, and confusing in the modern way of showing battles,
where clarity is sacrificed for jittery, jumpy editing, and you are left
with visual impressions, not information. I appreciated much of the
craft, but I didn’t have much fun. Mixed or average reviews. Not at Big
C.
Shrek Forever After 3D: US, Animation/ Comedy/
Family – The further adventures of the giant green ogre. Still a fun
movie for the family – at least I was solidly amused. The story: Now
domesticated and bored, Shrek makes a pact with deal-maker
Rumpelstiltskin to get the real ogre feeling once again, but is duped
and sent to a twisted version of Far, Far Away. With the voices of Mike
Myers, Cameron Diaz, Antonio Banderas, and Eddie Murphy. At Pattaya
Beach only. Mixed or average reviews.
Iron Man 2: US, Action/ Adventure/ Sci-Fi/
Thriller – Starring Robert Downey Jr. Not quite the breath of fresh air
that “Iron Man” was, but this sequel comes close, with solid
performances and an action-packed plot. I particularly liked Mickey
Rourke. Mixed or average reviews. At Pattaya Beach only.
The Bounty Hunter: US, Action/ Comedy – Gerard
Butler plays a down-on-his-luck bounty hunter who gets his dream job
when he is assigned to track down his bail-jumping ex-wife (Jennifer
Aniston). Critics say the two leads are as attractive as ever, but the
script doesn’t know what to do with them. Generally unfavorable reviews.
At Pattaya Beach only.
Poh Tak / Po Taek: Thai, Comedy – Directed by
popular comedian-turned-director, Mum Jokmok, this is a comedy parody
that explores lives in front of and behind the cameras of the Thai film
industry. Features many of the regulars on Mum’s very popular TV show.
Sex and the City 2: US, Comedy/ Drama/ Romance –
Perhaps you will be pleased with this; most critics aren’t, and have
given it scathingly unfavorable reviews. The TV series was hugely
successful in some circles, so maybe you are among its fans. The girls
this time take on the United Arab Emirates, though it’s actually shot in
Morocco. Rated R in the US for some strong sexual content and language;
15+ in Thailand.
Sam Yan: Thai, Comedy – Usual regurgitation of
tried and true Thai slapstick comedy. A dead passenger on a bus returns
to haunt the driver, and two other tales. Rated 18+ in Thailand. In Thai
only.
Furry Vengeance: US, Comedy/ Family – Live-action
animals with animated mouths. Generally unfavorable reviews. At Big C
only, and Thai-dubbed.
Staying happy in Paradise - the Counseling Corner
A Connection for Life: Body and Psyche
Richard L. Fellner
All of us have heard of it - the ‘mysterious’ effects
of the psyche on the human body. Indeed, latest studies show that we can
imagine our constitution like the fuel pump in a car: its performance
defines whether our ‘vehicle’ can drive with full force, if it starts to
stutter - or in extreme cases even breaks down. Whether our soul suffers
or groans will always affect its ‘life partner’: our body.
Heart and circulatory diseases, such of the digestive
system, problems with spine and joints, but also fluctuations in hormone
levels or neurotransmitter imbalances: psychological burden is often a
contributing cause. Also, mental states seem to influence the incidence
of atopic dermatitis, diabetes and sexual problems as well as on the
progression of cancer, as recent metastudies illustrate.
But let’s look the other way now and ask ourselves:
what can we do to make it easier for our body? Most of all, it is
important to cut down on all forms of stress (even if purely
psychological), addictions and bad eating habits, all of which are often
associated with depression as well. Meditation and yoga are great to
improve physical and mental balance. Counseling and psychotherapy can
help to get rid of the ‘millstones of the soul’ - often surprisingly
quickly - and thus relieve our bodies from the creeping loss of vitality
and energy.
Richard L. Fellner is head of the Counseling Center
Pattaya in Soi Kopai and offers consultations in English and German
languages after making appointments at 0854 370 470.
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