Columns

HEADLINES [click on headline to view story]:: Money matters; Snap Shots; Modern Medicine; Heart to Heart with Hillary; Let’s go to the movies

Money matters: Graham Macdonald MBMG International Ltd. Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize

Is China helping or hindering? Part 2
The global economy is not exactly strong at the moment. The West has an over-supply of debt and the East has too much production. The crisis has been hidden by almost zero interest rates and governments printing money which has done no good for their country’s balance sheets. Even as the West cuts its spending, the East is not creating as much as it would have hoped for. Worse, it is adding more production to boot.
If we just look at China, we can see it has too many people with not enough money and too few with too much. The immediate future will govern what happens to it for decades to come. Is the economy beyond help? No, definitely not but it is difficult to read. Just look at the views of two of the world’s greatest investors:
1. Jim Rogers - He is very bullish on China and believes that, “China is going to be the most important country in the 21st century.”
2. Jim Chanos - He is very bearish on China and believes that, “China is Dubai times one thousand, if not a million.”
Now if two such eminent gurus have such diametrically opposed views what chance do the rest of us have? If you just looked at basic facts as shown by China then you would have to think Rogers was right. The population is massive and they are so competitive in everything they do. The numbers speak for themselves. America has nine cities where the population is over one million people. The UK has three. China has 160. The Chinese government plans to build twenty more cities that will each cater for more than 20 million people EACH. This would then mean China has to oversee the biggest migration the world has ever seen. China’s GDP went up with double digit growth each and every year.
Given all the above, how can Rogers be wrong? The production and manufacturing plants worked 24/7 and the West bought almost everything China threw at it. The Chinese were so happy with this situation they even lent the West money with which to buy more of its products. It seemed like Utopia as China produced exactly what the West wanted at an incredibly low price. Apart from borrowing money from China to keep this going, the greedy consumers in the West mortgaged their own properties to continue financing the dream.
This is where Chanos comes in. When things started to go wrong in America and the rest of the Western world, the Chinese boat started to rock as well. In less than a year, the Shanghai CSI 300 fell by nearly sixty-six percent. Vital Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) dried up as companies and investment funds found out the money was needed more at home. Suddenly China was hit with what we had suffered in the West. How could all this be sustained? How would they cope with all the overcapacity? What would happen to the export market on which the Chinese economy is so reliant?
People who support the Rogers argument come back with such facts as retail spending is up sixteen percent year on year and industrial production is up by almost the same as well. Even more impressive is the fact that housing startups increased, for the second year running, by over fifty percent in 2009. Also, they point out that domestic consumption is on the rise with over 900,000 cars being sold each month. Exactly the same is said for household appliances and personal items such as mobile phones. Finally, the Rogers followers point to the USD2.3 trillion that China has in foreign reserves all over the world.
Things look good yes? Er, no. China has more problems that it likes to admit. Hundreds of millions of the population live on less than five US dollars a day. It is an environmental disaster in the making with people already suffering illnesses caused by excess pollution. Then there is what happened in Hunan where the local government ripped down nearly four kilometres of a perfectly good modern flyover - so they could build it again and take advantage of central government handouts. My personal favourite is the brand new city of Ordos in Inner Mongolia. It is standing completely empty.
The author of China’s water crisis, Ma Jun, reckons that two thirds of China’s six hundred cities are facing water shortages of various degrees of severity. To solve this, Ma reckons China needs another 40 billion cubic meters of water each year to keep the urban areas supplied properly. It is impossible to work out how much more is needed for rural citizens.
So, who is right and who is wrong? Well, both Rogers and Chandos have good arguments to support their ideas. China’s problems are not small but neither is their desire to be THE nation in the 21st century. As with everywhere else people will make a lot of money and lose a lot as well. It is the nature of things and this applies to China as well.
I make no apology for re-stating that I believe the markets are still sticking their heads in the sand about what has happened since the credit crisis began. The recent surge in the world’s indices since the lows of March 2009 are due to governments printing money, not because things are getting better naturally. We need to be careful about China’s investment bubble but this should not be too much of a problem if we know what is going on. The much bigger problem is the banking cover up in Europe - more of which later. Once this has been done then we can start afresh.

The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]

Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman

Sun-lighting or electronic-lightning?
I was given a very interesting DVD the other day. Produced by the Nikon people, it was a video on how to manipulate the available light to produce the best possible photographs.
Being a Nikon produced video lesson, there was a very strong message to use Nikon equipment, and I will admit to using Nikon myself until I was seduced by the ease and simplicity of the Panasonic Lumix.
The video began with using available light (the sun), but then showed that in many instances to make the photograph record all the details, it may be necessary to use additional flash(es) to get rid of shadows which are too deep. The flash units being touted were from the Nikon Speedlight series, and the final shot of a gnarled old fisherman on the docks beside a fishing boat at sunset took eighteen (yes, 18) flash units selectively lighting the foreground with the fisherman, the middle ground, the background, the fishing boat and then the boat captain.
The result was sensational, and having been previously involved in marathons required in producing such a shot, I could appreciate the vision of the photographer and his skill in balancing all the light sources. However, 18 Speedlites at around 20,000 baht each comes to around 360,000 baht. Now you can see why pro photographers charge such high fees. For the photograph itself 1,000 baht. For knowing how to do it 99,000 baht! By the way, most pros don’t own such equipment, but lease it for the shoot, with the leasing costs naturally being passed on to the client.
Today I want to mention a very common lighting problem, and how to get around it without 18 flash heads. This is where the background light is very much more bright than the lighting for the foreground. This will always occur when taking photographs indoors in the daytime, particularly if there are large picture windows lighting the interior of the house. Ever tried taking shots of the interior of a room at noon? The garden, through the window, comes out perfectly, while the interior of the room comes out so dark you are lucky to distinguish anything. The other time this happens is when you are photographing ‘contre jour’, that is when the camera is facing to sun, so the subject’s face is in shadow.
In both these situations, the camera’s electronic brain selects aperture and shutter speed settings to allow the bright source to be ‘tamed’, but this unfortunately makes everything in the shadow end of the photograph even darker.
The simplest way around this is to lessen the difference in light levels between the background and the subject in the foreground. There are many ways of doing this. Here are a few.
In the room situation, increase the lighting in the interior of the room by turning on as many lights as you can. Now decrease the lighting coming in from the windows by drawing the curtains! This is best if the curtains are made of gauzy material. They still let light through, but not in the same intensity. Set the exposure details from the room itself and shoot away.
Now the contre jour problem. This is where you can use the photo technique called ‘Fill-Flash’. This is done by using your camera’s flash to remove the deep shadows caused by the sun being behind the subject. The secret is not to have the flash overpowering the sun, but just enough to almost balance the light intensities between sun and flash, but sun must be the greater to ‘back light’ the subject.
Without getting too technical, if the aperture for the background is f11, then select f8 in the flash. With digital cameras it is even easier to strike the right balance. Just review each shot as you take them. If the flash is producing the ‘rabbit in the headlights’ appearance, then progressively wind down the strength of the flash until the face is lit, and the background is still recognizable.
Finally, you can always just zoom in until the face almost fills the viewfinder and the camera will give you the correct settings without any flash at all.

Modern Medicine: by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant

Go to bed with a good cook!

Sorry about the headline, I meant to write “Go to bed with a good book!” however there is good scientific evidence that the “good cook” advice is actually good for your mental health. Being married to the good cook can actually stave off Dementia and Alzheimer’s Disease.
As we get older, and we are all living longer (especially those who read and follow the advice in this column), we become more likely to suffer from aging of the brain and a decrease in cerebral function. A severe drop in cerebral function may be just called Dementia or one particular variant is called Alzheimer’s Disease.
Now we have known for some time that if you don’t use your muscles, they waste away. By not using your hands for physical work, the skin on your hands gets thin. However, we also know that if you use your muscles again, the muscle tissue builds up and becomes strong once more. If you use your hands again, the skin builds up and becomes thicker. The message is that all is not lost! Recovery is possible.
However, we were always told that the one organ of the body that could not reverse the wasting process was the Central Nervous System. Once it started to fail, that was it. Dementia was just around the corner.
That view has recently been challenged and the results are comforting, to say the least. Experiments have been carried out that showed that by inducing stress in an animal resulted in chemicals being released. This on its own was nothing new, but what was new was the fact that some of these chemicals produced a difference in the brain’s anatomy! The idea that the brain could not change was incorrect! It could be ‘short-circuited’ resulting in a new wiring pathway.
What was even more exciting was that if the animal was restored to its own ‘safe’ and non-threatening environment, then the brain reverted to its pre-stressed anatomy! It was possible to ‘re-wire’ the brain.
In turn this has led to much research into the effects of stress and its reversal, and then on to Alzheimer’s Disease (if I have remembered to spell it correctly)! And if it were possible for its reversal too!
Returning to the research, we have shown that stress can physically damage nerve cells used in storing memory. We have also found that mindless watching of the goggle-box also produces a decline in brain function. In fact the numbers are more worrying than that. It has now been found that people with no stimulating leisure activities, and who are couch potatoes instead, are nearly four times more likely to develop dementia compared to those people who have leisure stimuli and do not waste hours in front of the TV.
Taking that a step further, and turning the scientific data around to be useful, it has been found that in being the converse to the couch potato, intellectually stimulating leisure activities had a ‘protective’ effect for the brain and its capabilities. What is more, they have also found that if you are doing a job you enjoy, then this was again protective, but a dull job with no stimulus or challenge was another way to head downhill.
This does not mean that we all have to take up chess tomorrow, because in place of intellectually stimulating hobbies, it has been found that even physical exercise itself stops memory loss and stimulates growth of nerve cells.
And so to the “good cook”. Another protective factor appears to be marriage! Those who have never married have twice as high an incidence of dementia than those who are married. So there you are, rather than say that your wife is driving you insane, it appears that she is driving you towards sanity instead.
So the secret towards staving off dementia and Al whatsisname’s disease is to have a job you enjoy, get some exercise, watch a very limited amount of TV and settle down with that good cook (sorry again, that should have read “a good book”).

Heart to Heart with Hillary

Dear Hillary,
It’s nice to read about a lady farang being ‘taken to the cleaners’ instead of the usual suckers in this ‘land of smiles’ where money talks really loudly and losers (like myself) can’t even afford to take a baht bus ride (farang price; which is a bit ironic because I guestimate that many Thais in Jomtien and Pattaya are a lot better off than a farang on a pension) to where they want to go, and have no choice other than to walk to their destination or stay put.
Having said that, I do think that bar girls and sex workers in Thailand are badly ripped off by greasy old sex tourists. If a pot-bellied, bald 60 year old male wants to sleep with a beautiful 20 year old girl (and younger), he should pay accordingly; at least 5,000 baht a night and not the derisory 25 euros (1,000 baht) he is now getting away with. The Thai authorities should step in and safeguard these girls’ interests. That same greasy old sex tourist would be paying a heck of a lot more for similar services in Europe.
Yours, a sad old walker (that is ‘walker’)

Dear Sad Old Walker,
Are we reading from the same hymnbook, my Petal? “Lady farang being taken to the cleaners”? I know I’m getting woolly-headed in my old age, but I don’t remember that letter.
Now to the second part of your letter, where you are suggesting that 60 year old overweight bald male tourists should be subject to a 500 percent escalation in dormitory fees - I don’t quite understand this at all. Firstly, there are no “sex workers” here and you can verify this by asking any policeman. Secondly, it is against the law - you can check the statutes on this fact. So you see, the “Thai authorities” (the police) are already safeguarding the interests of those girls who work in the bars, so you can stop worrying. Incidentally, this is a type of discrimination you are proposing. What about 60 year old tourists that still have hair, or who are not overweight? Will they be made to pay your new schedule of fees too? Your “new order” needs refining, Petal.
By the way, I’m sorry you have to walk everywhere, but I’m sure the exercise is good for you.

Dear Hillary,
I’d like to add my bit to the letter from the chap calling himself “Your fan from the USA”. You’ve got a lot of fans out here in the sandbox too, but there’s no bubbly allowed out here, French or otherwise, and I’m sure a bottle of distilled water from the cooling tower wouldn’t do much for you. We read you on line every week, and yours is the first column we read. All the best for 2010.
Gary from the Sandbox

Dear Gary from the Sandbox,
Well, isn’t that just the nitty-gritty of it all out there in the sandy country. Such privations! No bubbles! I certainly couldn’t live there, my Petal, even though the bottles of bubbly were not too thick on the ground in Thailand in 2009 either, I can tell you. We all had to tighten our belts, even me. Keep reading, and I’ll think of you each week. (I tell such terrible lies some days!)

Dear Hillary,
Have you ever tried crossing the road here in Thailand? You take your life in your hands as nobody slows or makes any effort at avoiding you. Three times this week I have had to jump out of the way of those dreadful public taxi buses and I feel this can do the image of Thailand no good at all. What do you think, Hillary?
Pedestrian Paul

Dear Pedestrian Paul,
Have I tried crossing the road? What a ridiculous question! Of course I’ve tried crossing the road. That does not mean to say that I have always been successful though. Honestly, you men do amaze me at times! I agree that the sight of people like you jumping ineptly out of the way of rampant taxi buses will do our image no good at all. Perhaps you could try ballet lessons? However, if you find that crossing the road is totally impossible, then just take the arm of one of our old folk, and then using them as a shield, force your way through the belching buses.

Dear Hillary,
Why are there so many lady-boys in Thailand? Everywhere you go there seems to be a lady-boy these days. Every bar has at least one, they are soliciting on the sidewalks and there are complete shows made up of them. Now I have one in the office next door. When will it stop? What’s the answer Hillary, as I am sure you will know what to do.
Katoeys R Us

Dear Katoeys R Us,
Hillary will know what to do about what, my Petal? About the soliciting lady-boys at the side of the road? My advice is to have nothing to do with solicitors who work on the sidewalks, use only qualified solicitors that work in legal offices. Either way you are going to be out of pocket (I was going to say ‘screwed’ - naughty me), but at least with the ones in the law offices you can complain to the Law Society.

Let’s go to the movies: by Mark Gernpy

Now playing in Pattaya

Under the Mountain: New Zealand, Adventure/ Fantasy – New Zealand teen adventure/ horror film about redheaded twins battling intergalactic planet-smashers who live under the dormant volcanoes of Auckland. For the young-at-heart movie fan who doesn’t mind a family friendly film with magical adventures, mystical strangers, and massive monsters.

Tai Hong: Thai, Horror/ Thriller – This omnibus film consists of 4 short stories of death and horror based on items appearing in Thai tabloids, directed by Poj Arnon (Bangkok Love Story) and three new directors.

My Valentine: Thai, Comedy/ Romance – A girl who hates Valentine’s Day meets three young men, each determined to make her his Valentine. The usual Thai rom/com from the same people that came up with Before Valentine last year.

Mulan: US/ China, Adventure/ Drama/ Romance – Based on the Chinese folk heroine Hua Mulan who, when her country is threatened by invaders, sneaks away from home and dresses up as a man to join an all-male army where she eventually assumes a historically critical role in defending her nation. It’s the same story of a cross-dressing heroine in ancient China that has been told in many films before, including the 1998 Disney animated feature. This new version is a large-scale effort, similar to other historical costumed battle epics that have come out of China in recent years, all beautifully-produced. In a Thai-dubbed version only, but spectacular nonetheless.

Avatar: US, Action/ Adventure/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – Now the highest grossing film in the world ever, bypassing Titanic just a week ago. It got a lot of help, of course, from higher-priced tickets for 3D and IMAX showings. The Golden Globes awarded the Best Picture, Drama prize to Avatar, and its director James Cameron was named Best Director. In the movie industry this raises the prospects for the film at the Oscars coming March 8 (Thai time).

This is a truly major achievement and a technological breakthrough. It’s a film of universal appeal that just about everyone who goes to the movies will want to see. It’s gotten near-universal reviews from critics and fans. Of course it will win the Oscar!

In Pattaya, Major Cineplex and Pattaya Beach have a 2D version, which is in English and Na’vi dialog, with English and Thai subtitles as needed. Big C has a Thai-dubbed 2D version, no English subtitles. The only Cineplex to show it in 3D is Pattaya Beach, and unaccountably the 3D version does not have English subtitles for the Na’vi language, only Thai, while the 2D version has English subtitles in a special font and style. Not to have them is a big mistake.

You might want to see this in IMAX in Bangkok; the bigger the screen, the better. Reviews: Universal acclaim. Highly recommended; not to be missed.

The Road: US, Adventure/ Drama/ Thriller – A thriller set in a bare, post-apocalyptic America, where a father and son struggle to survive by any means possible. The film’s commitment to author Cormac McCarthy’s dark vision may prove too unyielding for some, but the film has hauntingly powerful performances from Viggo Mortensen and the boy, Kodi Smit-McPhee. Generally favorable reviews. At Pattaya Beach only.

Sherlock Holmes: US/ UK/ Australia, Action/ Crime/ Thriller – The Golden Globes best actor award went to Robert Downey Jr. as Holmes. This is a new take on the Holmes canon but once you get over the shock of seeing Sherlock played as an action figure, it isn’t all that bad. A bit of the old Holmes shows through. Purists, however, will not be amused. Jude Law plays Watson. Mixed or average reviews.

Best Supporting Actor / Yak-Dai-Yin-Wa-Rak-Kan: Thai, Drama/ Romance – Romantic comedy-drama about two childhood friends, one of whom was always in the shadow of his better-looking, more-popular friend. And when they grow into adults, nothing changes. A minor variation on the standard Thai rom/com, exploiting the inscrutable mysteries of the Thai courtship rituals.

Couples Retreat: US, Comedy – Four couples settle into a tropical-island resort for a vacation. One of the couples is there to work on their marriage, the others fail to realize that participation in the resort’s therapy sessions is not optional. Generally unfavorable reviews. At Pattaya Beach only.

The Spy Next Door: US, Action/ Comedy/ Family – Jackie Chan fans may be running to see this, but people in the real world think it’s a sad little movie entirely designed to set up Chan’s stunt sequences as he fights with pots, pans, and ladders. Reviewers say it’s flat and witless – one of Chan’s worst ever, a juvenile, generic, sitcommy mess that utterly fails to thrill or amuse. Generally unfavorable reviews.

Kru Bann Nok / To Sir With Love: Thai, Comedy/ Drama – An idealistic new teacher comes to an impoverished rural schoolhouse in 1970s Isan. There, he runs afoul of the local powers-that-be for being so daring as to try and educate the country kids. The film is homage to Isan life: most of the cast are from Isan, as is the director. No relationship to the 1967 Sidney Poitier film. At Big C only.

32 Tan-Wah: Thai, Comedy/ Romance – Yet another Thai “rom/com” with this one taking place on the 32nd of December, in which a young man with amnesia forgets which of his three girlfriends he truly loves.