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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
A man’s home is his castle, part 2
The London Telegraph recently reported, “Rising unemployment
and a failure of mortgage lenders to offer cheap home loans will mean property
will stay unaffordable for too many consumers, forcing prices down in a second
wave of house price falls.”
Capital Economics is forecasting that the price of housing in the UK will fall
by ten percent in 2010 and another five percent the year after that. If they are
right then prices will fall back below the recent low of six months ago. Some
think they are being too pessimistic but, even if there is a recovery quicker
than everyone thinks then it will be accompanied by a rise in interest rates
which will put extra, unwanted pressure for lower house prices. If people
believe Capital Economics is being overly gloomy then it is just as well they
did not see the recent Fitch report which is predicting a 17% drop.
Whilst it is true there has been a recovery in the price of housing over the
last three months, this is only because owners will not sell at a lower price
than they think they should. They can hold out for a price they want because of
the chronic housing shortage in the UK.
Capital Economics do not think this is sustainable as there is every chance of
large scale redundancies occurring in the public sector in the near future. This
will help to push the unemployment total through the three million mark which
will force tens of thousands of people to see their houses.
Apart from the last three months, any expat still holding property back in the
UK will have experienced more than just a sense of loss in the last 18 months.
While it is clear that there are regional variations between markets in the UK,
overall there has been very real degradation of value throughout the whole
property market. Anyone with a large mortgage will be feeling the pain even
more, as their hard-earned assets fall, while their debt to the bank feels
increasingly like a millstone around their neck.
And while some welcome the reduction in mortgage interest rates through the Bank
of England easing its base rates to historical lows, a significant increase in
mortgage lending from banks has so far failed to materialise, leaving the
property market languishing, and overall heading lower.
From a distance, it’s hard to know what to do. Sell now and crystallize any
losses, exit the market, and hope you don’t miss any bounce back? But sell to
whom? Or grit your teeth and wait the slump out…as long as your bank manager
will let you. Sadly for those who have chosen to hold their ‘bolt hole’ back in
the UK in the hope it recovers in value, 2008 was a very tough year. In the 12
months to December 2008, the UK Property 350 Index slid almost 54% from a high
of 3875 and, as indicated above, it is a brave man who can say with confidence
the worst is over.
As we have seen already, to make matters worse, many respected analysts are
predicting this is just the first year in a prolonged downturn in the property
market, and the ‘good times’ are still many years off.
Yet in all this doom and gloom there is a product that provides ‘peace of mind’
to UK property owners worried about their asset values sliding further. It is
called “UK Property Protector”. This helps UK property owners protect themselves
against further falls in the value of their homes. What it does essentially is
insure your property against further losses of value. This is done by signing up
for a derivative option known as a CFD or Contract for Difference that retains
its value against the UK Property 350 Index. You simply pay a one off ‘premium
payment’ equal to 5% of the estimated property value and in return get a hedge,
based on the UK Property 350 Index against further falls in the value of UK
properties. The hedge is not protected (i.e. it reduces in value and ultimately
lapses if the value of the property increases) but it is open ended and can be
realised at any time that suits the plans of the home owner.
To illustrate the point, let us imagine a fictional Mr. Smith who owns a
property which was estimated to be worth GBP200,000 at the end of 2007 with an
outstanding mortgage of GBP80,000 and therefore equity of GBP120,000. He has
seen the market slip in the last 12 months and the reality is that even in that
area it’s likely to be worth anything between GBP170,000 and GBP180,000 if he
can find a buyer today.
Mr. Smith is now really worried it could slip further as unemployment increases,
industry slows, exports and international trade drop and it is looking like it
will take some time for the market to recover. He’s also concerned about his own
position if he is due to repatriate back to head office.
Luckily Mr. Smith made a one-off payment of GBP10,000 to buy a
Property-Protector premium in December of 2007 to protect the value of his
property against any further falls in the market. By the end of last year the
value of that insurance was over GBP96,809 (See chart).
Although Mr. Smith is concerned that the value might fall further and that
normally he might just leave the policy in place and continue to use it to
insure the property value, he took the opportunity at the end of last year to
redeem his policy, pay off the mortgage and use the spare proceeds to reinsure
the value of his property at current levels, paying a new open-ended premium of
GBP9,000.
The good news for Mr. Smith is that he is now mortgage free, and his financial
position has improved by GBP66,809 despite a GBP20,000 fall in the value of his
property.
In fact, the very good news for Mr. Smith is that since that point the 350
Property Index is down by a further 12.6% - Mr. Smith’s second Property
Protector that he bought would now be worth over GBP20,000 already!
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on
[email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
The world’s best portrait photographer?
 Since
portraits of people represent around 90 percent of all photographs,
there have been more than just a few portrait photographers, both
amateur and professional. Names like Irving Penn and Richard Avedon come
immediately to mind. Many portraitists, especially as photo technology
improved, have produced spectacular portraits with dramatic flash strobe
lighting, or have used amazing props to give the photo just that little
something extra, but was that really needed? I would suggest No!
Look at this week’s photograph, that of the eminent historian Thomas
Carlyle. It was taken in 1867 and is ranked as one of the most powerful
portraits in the history of photography. I have written about this
before, but it stands repetition. This is photography with a capital P!
Now look again - technically it is imperfect. There is blurring of the
image, but when you realise that the shutter was open for probably
around three minutes, then you can see why. The sitter could not
possibly remain motionless for that period of time.
The dynamics of this shot come from the very first principles of
photography - painting with light. It is not the subject - it is the way
you light the subject. The light is falling on the sitter almost from
the side and slightly above. One eye is partially lit and the other in
shadow. The hair and beard show up strongly. The photo is totally
confrontational.
Analyse further. If the face had been front lit, and both eyes, the nose
and the mouth were all clearly visible then there would be no air of
mystery. The dark shadow areas of the photograph have made you look
further into it. You begin to imagine what the features were like. You
also begin to imagine what the person was like. You have just
experienced the “perfect” portrait.
The shot was taken by Julia Margaret Cameron (1815 – 1879) a British
lady who had been raised in India, in the days of the British Raj.
Surrounded by servants, she had never had to do anything for herself,
and yet, in her late forties she took up the new fangled notion of
photography. This was not the age of the point and shoot simplicity we
enjoy today. This was the age of making your own photographic plates by
painting a mixture of chemicals all over it - chemicals you mixed
yourself - exposing the plate in a wooden box camera and then fixing the
negative in more chemicals and finally making a print.
It was the 29th of January 1864 when Mrs. Cameron finally produced her
first usable print. She had made the exposure at 1 p.m. and in her diary
recorded the fact that by 8 p.m. she had made and framed the final
print. (And you think you are doing it tough if you have to wait two
hours, instead of one!)
However, she would not have managed to photograph so many of the
notables of the era had it not been for her next door neighbour, the
Poet Laureate, Alfred Lord Tennyson. After Tennyson saw his portrait he
persuaded his eminent friends to sit for her as well. Most of these
portraits were different from the Thomas Carlyle photograph in that they
were taken in profile. Mrs. Cameron felt that the innate intelligence
could be more easily seen in the profile and this may have been the
result of the influence of the quasi-science of Phrenology, whereby your
cranial bumps showed your true talents, which was all the rage at that
time!
Julia Margaret Cameron contributed to photography by showing that it is
the eye of the photographer that dictates the photograph, not the
“smartness” of the equipment.
So you can stop reading the photographic magazines to see if you should
buy the latest offering with 300 megapixels and one zillionth of a
second shutter speed and dedicated flash power for up to three
kilometers and just go out and take photographs with what you have got.
Look at what is in front of you and “make” your own photographs “work”
for you. Thus endeth the inspirational lesson. Thank you Mrs. Cameron.
Class dismissed!
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Testing, testing, testing
At this time of year many people are taking advantage of the
reduced prices on check-up packages which are on offer. These packages list
the tests which can be done, with most having an item called “complete blood
count”. However, when the patients later ask, “What were my AIDS results?”
or “What is my blood group?” or similar. In most instances I have to
disappoint them, because unless the specific test for HIV antibodies, or
blood group, was requested, there will be no record of it, even though the
initial test was called a “complete blood count”.
The sad part is a “complete blood count” is actually very far from complete!
The reason for this is simple. There are so many tests that can be done,
that testing would go on for weeks if you wanted “everything” checked. For
example, the Australian Royal College of Pathologist’s Manual of Use and
Interpretation of Pathology Tests that sits on my desk lists 150 pages of
tests that can be carried out. These include such items as a Reptilase Time,
something I have never requested in 40 years of practice, or a red cell
Galactokinase; ditto.
In check-up packages we are just casting a ‘wide net’ to see what
abnormalities we can turn up to use to find the definitive diagnosis. One of
the commonest tests is called the “Complete Blood Count” (CBC), or in some
countries called the Full Blood Count (FBC).
The CBC does provide important information about the kinds and numbers of
cells in the blood: red blood cells, white blood cells, and platelets. A CBC
can help us evaluate symptoms such as weakness, fatigue, or bruising and
even directly diagnose conditions such as anemia, infection, and many other
disorders.
The CBC test usually includes the white blood cell (WBC) count as these
cells protect the body against infection. If an infection develops, white
blood cells attack and destroy the bacteria, virus, or other organism
causing it. White blood cells are bigger than red blood cells and normally
fewer in number. When a person has a bacterial infection, the number of
white cells can increase dramatically. There are five major kinds of white
blood cells: neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, eosinophils, and
basophils. The numbers of each one of these types of white blood cells give
important information about the immune system. An increase or decrease in
the numbers of the different types of white blood cells can help identify
infection, an allergic or toxic reaction to certain medications or
chemicals, and many conditions (such as leukemia).
The red blood cell (RBC) count is also part of the CBC. Red blood cells
carry oxygen from the lungs to the rest of the body. They also help carry
carbon dioxide back to the lungs. If the RBC count is low, the body may not
be getting the oxygen it needs. If the count is too high (a condition called
polycythemia), there is a risk that the red blood cells will clump together
and block blood vessels (thrombosis).
Another test is Hematocrit. This test measures the amount of space (volume)
the red blood cells occupy in the blood. The value is given as a percentage
of red blood cells in a volume of blood. For example, a hematocrit of 38
means that 38 percent of the blood’s volume is composed of red cells.
Hemoglobin (Hb) is the substance in a red blood cell that carries the
oxygen. The hemoglobin level is a good indication of the blood’s ability to
carry oxygen throughout the body.
There is also the platelet (thrombocyte) count, which is an important part
of the CBC. Platelets are the smallest type of blood cell and play a major
role in blood clotting. If there are too few platelets, uncontrolled
bleeding may be a problem, such as occurs in Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever.
So even though the CBC does test for many factors, there are still another
149 pages of tests that can be done! If you want to know your blood group,
or your HIV status, you have to ask!
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Hillary,
I am a friend of Dr Iain and as I enjoy his medical column I read the PM, most
weeks. I always read your column and Graham Macdonald’s and am amused and
entertained by your column; it has a ‘style’ of its own.
Can I tell you about a friend of mine. The story is almost 180 degrees from your
tales of boy meets girl, boy gives girl car and house, girl dumps boy and takes
car, house and contents of bank account, boy complains to Hillary.
My friend, mid forties, good career and prospects met an incredible Thai lady.
She is from a wealthy old family, she graduated from a Thai university in BKK,
then grad school in UK, now number three in huge family business, but really the
driving force. Tall, beautiful, elegant, family wealth, independent wealth, a
real class act.
They met thru work, lunched together for a year, dated for about a year, are now
a ‘couple’. So touching to be with them, their love for each other is palpable.
He has never met her parents and they say they never will meet him. They do not
go to prominent places together, never hold hands or show any affection in
public. Her sister (who he knows well) recently married, he was not invited to
the wedding. They go out together, in a large group, but rarely as a twosome.
Their joy is holidays out of Thailand where they can relax and be a loving
couple.
He is totally unacceptable as a husband for her, even tho at 37 she would have
problems finding a Thai husband.
As I say, it is ironic because it is diametrically opposed to the situations
that you often document. At the lower end of the socio-economic scale the ex-pat
is a pot of gold at the higher levels he is a bucket of clay.
Mike
Dear Mike,
Thank you for the nice words about the column, and I shall pass on your messages
to Dr. Iain and Graham Macdonald. I am sure they will be delighted to know
someone has praised their prose.
However, I don’t really agree with your summation of the situation.
Generalizations are always dangerous (even this one). There are many, many
examples of mixed marriages in Thailand, including those from which the children
have risen to positions such as senators in the Thai parliament.
The situation as you describe it with this couple is not as dire as you are
presenting. Their relationship is one that they have worked out as being
commensurate and suitable with her position, in an obviously prejudiced
household. She is, as you have said, independently wealthy - so why don’t they
just elope, if they are so much in love? Let me answer that, Petal. Because she
is tied to her family by her own culture and she does not wish to break that
bond, even though racial prejudice is present in her parents. Racial prejudice
is not something that Thai society invented either. It is present in many, many
cultures, as I am sure you would have to agree. I would also not agree with your
statement that at 37 she would have problems finding a Thai husband. Being from
a rich family with a huge family business, there would be plenty of potential
husbands taken from other rich Thai families.
No Mike, my Petal, your friend and his lady are where they are, because it works
for them, even though it does not fit with your culture or societal mores.
Certainly in the poorer socio-economic area the foreigner does represent a pot
of gold, even without a rainbow, but not all foreign husbands married to a Thai
lady from the impecunious end of town end up needing to complain to Hillary.
However, you do sound like a nice man, with good intentions. I am attracted to
men such as that, especially after a year of weekly champagne (French, darling)
and chocolates. (Please make sure you underline “For Hillary” on the package(s),
or otherwise the wretched delivery boy will snitch it.)
Dear Hillary,
Why do the Thai girls all wear those molded plastic and rubber bras that look
like two dumplings attached to the front of their chests? It is obvious that the
lumps don’t belong to them, but come from their bra manufacturer. I’m like a lot
of guys and like a nice pair on a girl, but real ones, not rubber ones, please.
Tim the T-man
Dear Tim the T-man,
I presume you mean Tim the Toyman, you naughty little Petal! I must admit that I
have never heard the girls in the lingerie shops asking if madam would like one
lump or two, as I have heard in some five star restaurants over coffee. Perhaps
something swinging is going on behind the kitchen swinging doors, that Hillary
is unaware of. Dearie me! Since Thai girls were standing behind the door when
the chests were given out (the Russian ladies made it to the front row), we have
to do something to catch the eye of Toymen like you, Tim. So you have discovered
our secret. Don’t tell everyone, that’s a good boy.
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Although promised,
Julie and Julia didn’t show up here last week; a number of people
are very disappointed, as they were really looking forward to seeing
Meryl Streep’s near-legendary performance.
Now playing in Pattaya
Best Bet: Disney’s A Christmas Carol
Disney’s A Christmas Carol: US, Animation/ Drama/ Family/ Fantasy –
Brilliant! Don’t miss it if you at all like animation. Not all of it
warm and comforting as you might expect from Disney, most is instead a
dark and grim tale, and a faithful recreation of the Charles Dickens
classic – one of literature’s most haunting morality tales.
Mixed or average reviews, but I can’t recommend it highly enough. Shown
in 3D, which in this case is a marvel, and only at SF Pattaya Beach.
(surcharge.)
It is, in fact, so faithful to the original text that it is a bit
difficult to follow at times, since the vocabulary and the grammar are
as used by Dickens. The film for the most part is leisurely presented
and takes its time; some of the long passages of silence are truly
scary. It has a spooky stillness about it, broken up now and again by
passages of action to please the kiddies and the backers.
But talking about kiddies, it is so frightening, horrifying, and just
plain scary at times that I question whether kids under 10 should be
taken. Be forewarned.
It’s a remarkable piece of acting for Jim Carrey. I also have to
mention the brilliant use of music, which I thought was exceptionally
apt and expressive throughout, and which rises to a marvelously rousing,
full-throated climax during the closing credits.
Couples Retreat: US, Comedy – A comedy centered around four couples
who settle into a tropical-island resort for a vacation. One of the
couples is there to work on their marriage, and the others fail to
realize that participation in the resort’s therapy sessions is not
optional. Generally unfavorable reviews.
Yam Ya-So-Thorn 2: Thai, Comedy – Thai comedy with popular comedian
Mum Jokmok, and this time with his daughter and son as well. Should
prove an amusing Thai down-home country comedy, with the regular
assortment of Thai TV comedians.
Ninja Assassin: US/ Germany, Action/ Crime/ Thriller – Seems to me
essentially a blood-soaked combination of physical stunts and digital
trickery, with the shyly expressive Korean pop star Rain, one of People
magazine’s “Most Beautiful People” in 2007. Not recommended, unless
you’re easily delighted by ultraviolence for its own sake. Otherwise,
this thinly plotted movie with low-grade thrills about a young ninja’s
revenge against his cruel trainers will disappoint. I found the shadowy
action too often incomprehensible, except in the general sense that
heads, limbs, and torsos are being severed in massive numbers. Ten
minutes after you leave the movie, all the battles will have blended in
your memory into a ceaseless muddle of sliced-off appendages, jets of
blood splashing artfully on walls, gurgling screams, and flashing
swords. But, to be honest, I guess there’s a cathartic value to all the
bloodletting. Rated R in the US for strong bloody stylized violence
throughout, and language. 18+ in Thailand. Review scores have dropped -
now “generally unfavorable” reviews.
The Twilight Saga: New Moon: US, Drama/ Fantasy/ Romance – It’s a
phenomenon, all right: in the US it had the biggest opening weekend of
2009, an astounding $142.8 million, the third highest-grossing opening
ever behind only The Dark Knight and Spider-Man 3.
Industry tracker, Box Office Mojo, further reports that on its opening
day, New Moon shattered the records for US opening day and
midnight showings, thanks to the rush of its fervent fan base. “The
distributor’s exit polling in the US indicated that 80 percent of the
audience was female and 50 percent was under 21 years old, which means
the sequel brought in more female and younger viewers than the first
Twilight.”
It was similarly a huge hit internationally. There’s no doubt about it,
the film is brilliantly calculated to appeal to its target audience,
virgins dreaming of safe love. So if you’re a teenaged girl with raging
hormones, you’ll love it! As you will the next in the series,
Twilight Saga: Eclipse, which completed shooting a month ago and is
scheduled for June 30 of next year, or just seven months from now.
Mixed or average reviews.
The Box: US, Horror/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – With Cameron Diaz, James
Marsden, Frank Langella. A suburban couple with a young child receives
a simple wooden box as a gift, which bears fatal and irrevocable
consequences. A mysterious stranger, delivers the message that the box
promises to bestow upon its owner $1 million with the press of a
button. But, pressing this button will simultaneously cause the death
of another human being somewhere in the world; someone they don’t know.
With just 24 hours to have the box in their possession, they find
themselves in the cross-hairs of a startling moral dilemma and must face
the true nature of their humanity.
The Echo: US, Horror/ Thriller – An ex-con moves into an old
apartment building, where he encounters a domestic problem involving a
police officer, his wife, and their daughter. When he tries to
intervene, however, a mysterious curse entraps him. (15+)
2012: US/ Canada, Action/ Drama/ Thriller – The end of the world, as
only Director Roland Emmerich can show it. Very well done disaster
movie to end all disaster movies. Mixed or average reviews. A
Thai-dubbed version is available at both locations.
Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans: US, Crime/ Drama –
Directed by Werner Herzog. A demented cop on the brink of insanity –
that’s Nicolas Cage. He plays a rogue detective who is as devoted to
his job as he is at scoring drugs - while playing fast and loose with
the law. He wields his badge as often as he wields his gun in order to
get his way. In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina he becomes a
high-functioning addict who is an intuitive, fearless detective reigning
over the beautiful ruins of New Orleans with authority and abandon.
Complicating his tumultuous life is the prostitute he loves (played by
Eva Mendes). Together they descend into their own world marked by
desire, compulsion, and conscience. The result is a singular
masterpiece of filmmaking, equally sad and manically humorous. Generally
favorable reviews, but a wide divergence of opinion. At Pattaya
Beach only.
Yom Pee Poa: Thai, Comedy/ Drama – A mischievous orphan becomes a
young monk in a temple where the ghost of his father appears to ask him
for help. (15+)
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