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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
Light at the end of the Tunnel? Part 1
Some people think the world financial system is now over the
worst of it and is getting better by the day. Well, let’s look at this in more
depth. Fullermoney recently did some interesting analysis. Going from January
2008 to late September 2009, it compared write offs and credit losses with
capital raised. The implications are there for all to see (table left).
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Total
Total
All Financial Loss ($ bn)
Capital Raised ($ bn)
Worldwide 1623.2 1340.8
Americas
1076.1 754.1
Europe
504.8 480.0
Banks / Brokers
Worldwide 1137.5 1085.3
Citigroup 112.2 109.4
Wachovia 101.9 11.0
Bank of America 69.6 99.3
Merrill Lynch 55.9 29.9
UBS 52.8
39.9
HSBC 50.1
28.6
Insurers
Worldwide 247.8 137.3
AIG 101.4
92.3
GSEs
Freddie Mac 119.6 57.7
Fannie Mae 118.3 60.5
(Source: Bloomberg LLP, as at 21.9.2009) |
What is inferred is obvious. Even if we accept that the above
is right, it does not mean that there is no more to come. There is still a lot
of debt out there and it is not all going to be paid off. Also, it does not help
that the US government allowed its banks to re-value toxic assets in other ways
so the books don’t look so bad.
Let’s go back a bit further so we can take this in. In October 2007, the total
capital value of the world’s stock markets stood at USD62.5 trillion. In October
2008, this figure was USD36.6 trillion. In just twelve months, almost USD26
trillion was lost. Does anyone really believe we are in the process of getting
most of this back? Not in a month of Sundays. There is only one way of making
things look better than they are and that is to re-evaluate things. As the old
quote goes, there are “lies, damn lies and statistics”.
We can retreat into history a bit more. From a low of about 2% of disposable
income in 1945, US debt service rose to almost fifteen percent a couple of years
ago. In terms of total debt/GDP, the ratio was only about 150% in 1945, but that
was with public debt from the war years at 120% of GDP. By 1950, the war debt
had been cut down to about 70% of GDP, with private debt still at about 35%. At
the height of the bubble years - 2005 to 2007 - total debt in America hit 360%
of GDP, only 60% of it owed by the federal government.
Then we were hit with the bottom falling out of the stock markets as well as
other assets such as property. In Q1 of 2009, the Americans were told that they
had not seen such real values in stocks for over forty years. As intimated
above, the price of housing was on the way down too. By early summer this year,
twenty five percent of US home owners had a mortgage that was more than the
actual value of the property owned - negative equity had come to America. The
only thing on the way up was…debt.
In this column, we have looked at alternatives to the US dollar before. It is
interesting to note that Kuwait has asked for a brief postponement of a united
Arab currency and other ideas are also on hold. However, this will not last and
it will not help the US either. “Looking forward, there will increasingly be
other options to the dollar,” says World Bank president, Robert B Zoelick.
Asia is raising enough money to cover any losses but the rest of the world is
really struggling. Those companies which have not managed to tempt inward
investment via either bond markets or government bailouts are going to have to
try the right issues way. If this does not work then the stock markets are going
to suffer yet more problems.
To be continued…
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on
[email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
The three-legged race is on
There are some items all photographers should have in addition to their
camera - and that is a polarizing filter and a tripod.
That one polarizer can do so much to enhance your shots, you will begin
to wonder why you don’t leave it screwed on the end of the lens for
ever! (But, ambiguously, there are many times when it is not needed!)
 Jake
the Peg (Rolf Harris).
However, a tripod can do much more than just enhance your shots. This
three legged device will open up completely new avenues in photography
and let you produce new and different images that are otherwise way
beyond your reach.
So what can you do with the tripod that you can’t do without? The first
and most obvious is time exposure shots. The whole secret of time
exposure is to keep the camera still, and you won’t do that by holding
your breath, leaning against a tree and gripping the camera tightly, let
me assure you. As much as you try.
Twilight photography and night photography opens up a whole new range of
pictures and effects. Just the simple expedient of being able to keep
the camera steady while you shoot 30 seconds or longer exposures will
result in some great photographs. Try taking a shot just after sunset,
for example. Set the camera on f11 and give it 30 seconds. You will be
very pleased with the results.
Did you know that the very best landscapes during daylight hours are
also best taken on a tripod? To get the huge range of depth of field
necessary for these shots, you will end up with slow shutter speeds. The
tripod ensures there’s no blurring. Those flowing milky, misty
waterfalls are also best taken with a tripod as again a slow shutter
speed is required to capture that effect.
Even nature shots are done best with this piece of equipment. You can
set up the camera and then leave it, so that the birds, etc., can get
used to its presence, and then with a cable or remote shutter release
you can get the nature photos of a lifetime.
Another type of shot that needs a tripod is the panorama. A compilation
of images which when placed together form a wide angle view of any
scene. This can only be done exactly with the use of a tripod.
Even when shooting still life images, the use of a tripod makes these
shots a breeze. You can set up the shot and then make minute adjustments
while looking through the viewfinder. Again you can use a slow shutter
speed to be able to use very small apertures (around f22) to get the
very fine detail into the shot.
So what should you look for and what should you spend? There are several
items in the specifications that you should ensure is on any tripod you
buy. The first is that it is heavy with strong legs when extended fully.
The “locks” on the legs must also be secure. Another item is that the
actual swivel head incorporates a spirit level, so that you can ensure
the top swivels in a true horizontal arc. The tripod head should also
have calibrations, so you can swing it a definite number of degrees. A
removable “shoe” is also a good item, as you can then position the
camera on the tripod, but also remove the camera to take other shots but
then replace it in exactly the same position. The legs should be able to
be spread out widely so that you can get the camera very close to the
ground, and finally if you can get one, see if the tripod shaft can be
removed and turned upside down, as this can get your camera completely
at ground level and also immediately above an object placed on the
ground.
How much will this cost? Expect to spend a minimum of 6,000 baht. My own
Manfrotto cost a lot more than that, let me assure you, but with now
more than 20 years of faithful service, it has been a bargain!
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Can gluttony be a killer?
I was watching Evan, my four year old, the other evening. We
had gone to a restaurant with some friends from America who gave him their
extra french-fries from their plates. It was almost as if he had entered a
competition to see how many fries he could pick up with one hand, and then
how many of those he could cram into his mouth at one time. A prime example
of gluttony.
In Evan’s case, gluttony might kill as he could have choked to death. Not
that he would have minded. Death by french-fry is probably more acceptable
to a four year old mind than death from gluttony at age 44.
Unfortunately, our diets are far from healthy these days, and that includes
both food and drink, especially the kinds of drinks that come in dark green
or brown bottles. I am sure you know the types.
The problem here is the fact that being overweight puts a strain on the
cardiovascular system, which sends the blood pressure up. That in turn
affects all the organs and systems, and everything goes pear-shaped from
there on, as well as your body shape.
In these situations, the combined effects can be life threatening. We call
it co-morbidity and is also called ‘Syndrome X’ and is also possessed by
around 40 percent of adults over 40. The combination of diabetes and
obesity, for example, can be a disaster waiting. The combination of
diabetes, smoking, obesity, hypertension and high triglycerides (blood fats)
is cardiac dynamite. Your conclusive heart attack is a matter of ‘when’ not
‘if’. The risk factors stemming from all those conditions become not a case
of simple addition, but should be multiplied together.
The problem from your point of view is that most of these factors come on
very slowly, and become part of your daily living. You’ve smoked for years
and never had a smoker’s cough, so why stop now? Every time you get some
trousers made the waistband has to be that little larger. Your belt has been
let out two more holes over the past two years. Your doctor said you had a
“Little bit of blood pressure” three years ago, but you haven’t been back to
check, as you feel quite OK in yourself. Your ‘triglycerides’? “My what?”
Your blood sugar? “It was OK last time it was checked five years ago!”
The big problem is that the “Little bit of blood pressure”, even say
150/100, can produce a very dangerous situation when the person with that BP
has elevated blood sugar as well. Or smokes. It is the multiplication effect
again. Whereas you can (almost) ignore mild elevations like 150/100 if you
have absolutely nothing else wrong, ignoring it when there are other
conditions co-existing brings up that co-morbidity problem again. And the
likelihood of a cardiac calamity at age 44.
Likewise, a “little bit of extra weight” that we all excuse ourselves for
carrying, may (just ‘may’) be fine for someone with no other medical
conditions, but represents an enormous risk factor for someone with the
Syndrome X.
For those who like figures with their information, here are some chilling
ones. Between 87-100 percent of people with fatal coronary heart disease, or
a non-fatal heart attack had at least one of the following risk factors -
smoking, diabetes, increased blood fats and high blood pressure. Syndrome X
is characterized by having diabetes, increased blood pressure, and raised
blood fats. Can you now see the importance of doing something about weight,
blood fats and blood pressure? I for one would not like to be sitting with a
condition that gives me between 87-100 percent chance of a cardiac problem.
So what is this week’s message? Quite simply, if you have diabetes, do
something about the other risk factors. If you are overweight, do something
about it. Stop smoking and get your BP and blood fats checked. If you don’t
even know what your blood sugar level is, then get a check-up and find about
all of it! Gluttony can kill.
In the meantime, take 100 mg of aspirin each morning. It is known to be
cardio-protective. I do!
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
What is the situation here as far as dowries is concerned. I have been living
with this girl I met in the local bar for a few weeks and I have been up to her
home town to meet her folks, and they seem to be OK sort of people. Her mother
looks after her child from a previous marriage. My girl is now saying that her
parents expect us now to get married and we must go back to her village for the
ceremony, and that I should pay the dowry for her as well as paying for the
monks and the marriage ceremony and party. I asked her how much did they expect
and she tells me around 200,000 baht will cover everything. Honestly Hillary,
that is a lot of money, being a bit short of 4,000 pounds, and I don’t know that
I really want to go through this at that sort of money. I understand this may be
the custom out here, but I want your opinion on it.
Andy
Dear Andy,
Dowries are still expected in some regions of Thailand, but 200,000 baht is a
bit steep for a blushing bride you met in a bar, who has been married before and
already has one child being looked after by her mother. Are there any others
hiding round the corner? Any contract of marriage should not be entered into
when there are doubts, and you are certainly showing more than a few doubts (not
that I blame you). You do not say how long you have been in Thailand, but I get
the feeling you are a newcomer. A ‘real’ marriage, which is recognized in both
Thai law and the UK, is not the one in the village, but is done at the local
amphur office. You asked for my opinion, Petal, and here it is - run!
Dear Hillary,
I would like to invite one of the girls from my work to go to dinner, but I am
unsure of the way to go about it in Thailand. She is very reserved, and I am
told she comes from a “good” family. Should I offer to have someone as a
chaperone? Or is this not necessary these days?
Andrew
Dear Andrew,
Goodness me! There are some old-style gentlemen left in this world! Honestly, my
Petal, most educated Thai women are quite emancipated these days, but if you
want to be very politically correct, I would suggest you just ask her if she
would have dinner with you next Thursday night, and if she would like to bring a
friend, that is quite alright by you. If she turns you down, I will keep
Thursday night free, as long as there is French champagne on the menu!
Dear Hillary,
The young Thai women all seem so fashion conscious around here, plenty of
designer label stuff, but why do they still wear those silly platform sole shoes
that went out 20 years ago. Up to the very minute on top and 20 years behind on
the bottom. Can you tell me why, Hillary?
Tom
Dear Tom,
I have been asked this question before, but it is really very simple to
understand. How far is it from a motorcycle seat to the ground? About an average
Thai lady’s leg plus 5 cm. So that they don’t fall over at traffic lights, they
need the extra boost for the length of their legs to reach the ground. Simple,
my Petal. Most things in Thailand are, when you stop to think about the reasons
behind anything which appears strange to you.
Dear Hillary,
Some time ago, you were asked some advice by a worried Mum. I am also a worried
Mum. Our daughter is aged 15 (going on 35) and is becoming a real handful. She
is a smarty, answers back to me (especially when her father is not around) and
exceptionally willful. She is also bigger than me, so I cannot really give her a
well placed clip behind the ear as I was once able to! Her standard of behavior
is just not acceptable as far as I am concerned and her school work seems to be
slipping as well. Is there anything that can be done, or that I should be doing?
Worried Mum (II)
Dear Worried Mum (II),
It is certainly a trying time, with young teenagers. Since the school work is
slipping, I would suggest a timely and private visit to the school counselor is
in order as well as asking around the other mothers as to how they see your
daughter’s attitude. It might just be an attention seeking form of behavior, or
on the other hand, you might just have a five star brat. Is there any suggestion
of drug taking? You really do need some professional help here, and this column
is not the place for that. Contact your local ladies’ clubs as some of them have
the name of a trained psychologist on their books. And best of luck. It might be
a case of grinning and bearing for a while, I’m afraid, but do arrange
professional help.
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now
playing in Pattaya
Best Bets: “This Is It”. “Surrogates”. “Slice”. “Law Abiding
Citizen”.
Michael Jackson’s “This Is It:” Brilliant! Don’t miss it! This
performance film, comprised of rehearsal footage for the show Michael
was working on at the time of his death, opened world-wide October 28
for two weeks only. Here in Pattaya it’s at SF Pattaya Beach, in
high-definition Digital format.
It’s a spectacular show with Michael at the top of his form, looking
great, and moving in a way that is a wonderment. Generally favorable
reviews, but I think it’s way better than that, and I highly recommend
you see it.
Kenny Ortega (director of the High School Musical series of
films) was Michael’s creative partner and the director of the stage
show, and he also directed the film. He says, “It will also show
Michael as one of the greatest entertainers in the world and one of the
industry’s most creative minds… I think the footage will show that the
process was something that Michael deeply enjoyed and that it was clear
he was on his way to another triumph.”
Indeed, that’s exactly what it shows!
Law Abiding Citizen: US, Drama/ Thriller – Terrific! I just got
around to seeing this after my inactive period following the heart
bypass, and I found this film quite entertaining and thought-provoking.
I’m sorry I couldn’t get my recommendation out sooner. Clyde Shelton
(Gerard Butler) decides to take justice in his own hands, getting
revenge on the murderers of his family as well as those in the justice
system responsible for setting one murderer free. District Attorney
Nick Rice (Jamie Foxx), one of those who helped set the murderer free,
tries to stop him. Rated R in the US for strong bloody brutal violence
and torture, a scene of rape, and pervasive language. In Thailand,
18+. Generally unfavorable reviews, but I highly recommend it anyway.
Surrogates: US, Action/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – I really enjoyed this,
and I think you will too. Set in a futuristic world where humans live
in isolation and interact through surrogate robots, a cop (Bruce Willis)
investigates the murder of the genius college student whose father
invented the surrogates. As the case grows more complicated, the
withdrawn detective discovers that in order to actually catch the killer
he will have to venture outside the safety of his own home for the first
time in many years, and enlists the aid of another agent (Radha
Mitchell) in tracking his target down. Mixed or average reviews.
Nevertheless, I recommend it highly.
Slice / Cheuan: Thai, Crime/ Thriller – You have to see this! I
know, you’re surprised, because there’s lots of gore. But there’s also
a very affecting love story between two adolescent boys, one deeply in
love with the other, which is not reciprocated on a sexual level, though
the two do eventually become and remain best buddies in spite of jeering
and bullying and physical mistreatment by their peers. Beautifully
acted by the two teenagers, this section has some of the best Thai
filmmaking since Love of Siam. How this all fits in with a story
of a hunt for a serial killer – well that’s what the film’s all about,
and you wouldn’t want me to give it away. Very highly
recommended. But hurry if you want to see it, because it’s doing poorly
at the box office. Thais don’t like such disturbing movies, and don’t
like to see their male stars with such dark impulses. 18+.
District 9: South Africa/ New Zealand, Drama/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – I
enjoyed this; it’s got a bit of everything in it, and for me in a
satisfying mix. Aliens are the nearly-dead survivors of an accident to
their space craft over South Africa. Rated R in the US for bloody
violence and pervasive language; 15+ here. Generally favorable reviews.
Bangkok Traffic Love Story / Rot Fai Faa Ma Ha Na Tur: Thai,
Romance/ Comedy – A romantic comedy about a 30 year old single woman who
is suddenly forced to give up her car and ride the Bangkok public
transportation system, where she falls for a maintenance engineer of the
BTS system.
Book of Blood: UK, Horror/ Mystery/ Thriller – The second story to
be adapted from highly-respected horror writer Clive Barker’s
collection. Rated R in the US for bloody violence, sexuality/nudity and
language.
The Rebound: US, Comedy/ Romance – Scheduled to open in the US maybe
sometime next year. In New York City, a single mom captivates her new
neighbor, a much younger man. About the trials of dating when you have
kids. Catherine Zeta-Jones. Rated R in the US for language,
some sexual content, and brief drug use.
The Scout: Thai, Action/ Adventure – Cute kids on an extraordinary
adventure at a scout camp. Nearby is an ancient castle in the forest,
which the teacher in charge considered a calm and harmless place – at
first.
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