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Money matters: The Strong Baht
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
As Pattaya Mail readers will have read recently there
has been worry in many quarters about the strength of the Thai Baht
(THB). This is coming from people who bring in income from overseas on a
regular basis, to Thai exporters and many other people are starting to
get worried as well.
Despite mixed economic indicators the baht continues to get stronger
against the major western currencies. In fact, recently, it has
appreciated 8% against the US Dollar whilst other regional currencies
have not done nearly as well; for example the Japanese Yen has only
risen by 2% over the same time period. So, why is this happening? One
train of thought is speculation. If this is the case then the Bank of
Thailand needs to step in before the baht gets too strong and the
country then fails to meet its economic targets.
Another reason given is that the US Dollar has got considerably weaker.
Also, the Bank of Thailand is blaming capital inflows into Asian
countries. Really, the problem lies in a combination of all of the
above. Basically, at the moment, Japan and Asia are seen as being
stronger than the West, therefore the interest rate differential will
reduce over the short term as interest rates in this part of the world
will continue to rise. This is a valid theme - will Thailand be a full
play on this? Thailand’s main concern is to avoid across the board baht
strength. US Dollar-China Remimbi-Thai Baht is the key relationship
here.
As all but those who have been visiting Mars recently will know, the
controversy thrown up over the sale of Shin Corp has been massive. The
impact of this on the baht was exacerbated by the further sale of a
major steel company and this could encourage yet more speculation and
other acquisitions would re-enforce this trend by raising the
possibility of Japanese, Koreans, Singaporeans and others coming over on
a buying spree.
With regards to the UK, during the last quarter of last year, the baht
strengthened very slightly against GB Pound (GBP) dropping from THB77 to
THB75 per GBP1.00. Since the anti-Thaksin movement gained momentum, it
has strengthened weekly until is now in the 65 point something range on
ATM rates - or around a 16% gain in strength compared to 4 months ago.
When Thaksin made his statement concerning the sale of Shin Corp, that
he would not explain it and all would become clear in due time, what has
now become clear is that the massive baht buying in Singapore has
contributed to strengthening the currency. What may take time to become
clear is whether the increased baht purchase power allows another
currency to be bought cheaply, which in turn would devalue the baht ...
there aren’t huge daily traded volumes in the baht market and therefore
a transaction the size of the sale of Shin Corp. can have a huge effect.
Also, the resolution of the recent political situation has now created
increased confidence amongst foreign institutions about investing here.
Following his “not stand as PM again” statement, it may have spurred
them to invest the funds they’ve been holding back due to uncertainty.
Remember that the annual average rate of foreign-funded BOI sponsored
investments, under Thaksin, has been only 10% of those under Chuan.
Forget the cash total - look at the number of projects if you want a
clearer picture. Small investors cannot negotiate the preferential terms
that the big boys could demand of the government.
There are plenty of conspiracy theorists who believe that everything
reeks of manipulation and trawl over every detail of movements in the
Shin Corp. share price before and during the sale, even drawing
parallels with George Soros shorting and almost destroying the Burmese
economy in 1999 with USD1.4 trillion.
Many would argue that the problems are being caused by foreign money
coming into the country. Not necessarily so; that money was coming in at
much higher rates some months ago. The actual inflow of foreign money is
drying up.
Others would say that the present strength of the baht is due to
offshore trading, pointing to what happens when the local markets close
and the US markets open - the baht on many occasions has gained another
10 satang, the next day another 10 satang ... they believe that somebody
is manipulating this strengthening - and as we keep saying it doesn’t
take too much to influence a currency traded in such small volumes.
Anyway, this is the view of a cynic and we all know what Oscar Wilde
said about cynics, they “know the price of everything and the value of
nothing”.
As regular readers of this column will know, I am an optimist when it
comes to finances - providing you know when and where to be optimistic.
The Finance Ministry’s spokesman, Somchai Sajjapong said the continued
strengthening of the baht to 38 to the dollar stemmed from an inflow of
foreign funds and cited the listed steel company acquisition. However,
he believed the appreciation of the local currency would proceed in the
short run. The Bank of Thailand is closely monitoring the baht movement.
Should the baht strengthen for long due to an improvement in the
economic fundamentals, he said, the ministry would consider how the
appreciation would have an impact on the country’s exports. Despite the
country’s exporters complaining, he thought that exports had not yet
been adversely affected at current because purchase orders are normally
placed around 2-3 months in advance.
What he really means is that he hopes things settle down and things
revert to normal which is a long term gradual decline in the value of
baht which means that you will end up getting more for your money.
Everyone agrees on this. The only questions they are not united on is
“When” and “against what”?
Timing is extremely difficult with currencies and most asset classes but
the second question may be easier to answer - over the next eighteen
months expect euro, Swiss franc and yen to be stronger than baht, US$ to
be weaker and AUD and sterling to be somewhere in between.
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The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be
reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept
any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any
responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not
taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please
contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: Be Prepared –
and you don’t have to be a Boy Scout
by Harry Flashman
 One
of the advantages of digital photography is that you will not run out of
film, so in theory you are always ready to get that shot of a lifetime.
However, even the digital buffs can find themselves out on location and
have left the memory stick at home! (True story that happened to a
friend of mine last year.)
Another true story is that you can make money with your camera if you
are in the situation of doing some industrial espionage. But again, you
have to Be Prepared.
Here is a true tale of such espionage. While driving along, I spotted a
totally unfamiliar looking car. Slowing down to allow the car to go by
it was noticed that it had no name badges or stickers and was being
closely followed by another vehicle full of monitoring equipment.
Smelling that I was on to something, I gave chase.
And a chase it was. Let me assure you that these guys when they’re
testing vehicles “under cover” do not want photographers along for the
ride. I pursued them for around 50 kilometers till eventually I ran them
into a dead end street, where I blocked them off and approached with
camera in hand. Out sprang all the Japanese occupants, “No photo! No
Photo!” was their cry. “Solly, solly,” I replied. “Takee plentee
picture!”
I shot off a complete roll and quickly had them processed and faxed one
picture to a magazine editor in the capital. He immediately arranged for
courier service (this was before the days of having scanners and emails
and such) to pick them up and the photographs ended up on the front
cover of Japan Auto, as well as being published in the US, Australia and
the UK. I had discovered a new diesel powered car on test that was
scheduled for release in two years time. That 50 km chase and one roll
of film was time and money spent wisely. The end result was several
hundred dollars in my bank account.
So how can you be ready to score your scoop and get your hands on some
ready cash? Well the first thing you have to do is keep your eyes and
ears open. If you know an event is going to take place, you are several
jumps ahead of all the photographers who do not know about it, aren’t
you?
There is a second thing you must also be diligent about. You must have
the camera ready to go. In other words, it has film and battery, or
memory stick in it and is ready to take pictures. You cannot ask the man
about to jump off the bridge if he’ll wait till you nick into the Kodak
shop and get some film first. In this business, opportunity only knocks
once, and many times, damn quietly too.
As part of this being ready concept, I recommend that you screw a wide
angle lens on your waiting camera too. In my case it is a 24 mm f 2.8
“fast” lens. Why? Because the wide angle lens gives you a much greater
depth of field (than when using a longer lens), and you are much more
likely to get the subject in focus than you are otherwise, as the depth
of field is much deeper – particularly if you are doing a “grab” shot.
The other aspect in using the wide angle is that when you rush in close
you end up getting a much more dramatic shot than otherwise (another old
newspaper photographer trick). But you do have to rush in close!
The final part of the being ready bit is to make sure your camera is
well protected while you tote it around with you while waiting for the
shot of a lifetime to bob up in front of you. Use a good, thickly padded
camera bag. The leather carrying case doesn’t cut it, I’m afraid.
Modern Medicine: A Stent in Time Part 2
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Last week I dealt with Coronary Angioplasty, and mentioned
the fact that the use of Stents has become more common, and often associated
with Balloon Angioplasty.
Angioplasty was first performed in 1977, and more than 1 million procedures
are done worldwide each year, according to the latest figures at my
disposal.
Some stents are being designed with clot-busting medication (called ‘drug
eluting’ stents), or with radiation, because studies show that both may be
effective in preventing arteries from narrowing a second time.
In approximately one-third of all cases, the blockages may return and the
artery becomes narrow again. Re-stenosis can happen within six months of the
procedure, and its causes are not entirely understood. It may be linked to
newly formed plaque deposits, clot formation caused by the rough, irregular
opening created by the original angioplasty, scar tissue from insertion of a
stent, or thickening of the arterial wall in response to the stretching of
the artery.
Although re-stenosis is not uncommon, it does not affect every patient, and
the prognosis for many angioplasty patients is excellent. Studies have shown
nearly identical survival rates for bypass and angioplasty patients over
five years following the original procedure, and of course, insertion of a
stent is much less traumatic than open heart surgery.
How do they do this technique? First a special dye is injected into the
bloodstream. Then a thin catheter with a guideline is fed into your arterial
system through the femoral artery in your leg, near the groin, or an artery
in your arm. Using X-rays that detect the flow of dye, the cardiologist
feeds the catheter through the circulatory system, up to the heart, and into
the blocked part of the coronary artery. The doctor then replaces the guide
catheter with a balloon-tipped catheter. The balloon is inflated, and the
plaque is compressed against the arterial wall.
When a stent is then used, it is placed over the catheter and inserted after
the artery has been cleared using balloon angioplasty. When the balloon is
inflated, the stent expands and stays permanently in the artery, and the
lining of the artery will eventually grow over the surface of the metallic
stent, to make the inside very smooth.
All surgical techniques have a degree of “risk” attached to them, but
advancements in treatment have resulted in angioplasty success rates of 96
to 99 percent. The biggest risk is collapse of the artery, which can trigger
a heart attack and requires emergency coronary bypass surgery.
The chance of having a heart attack is between 1 and 3 percent, and the risk
of dying during angioplasty is less than 1.5 percent. Emergency coronary
bypass surgery rates for angioplasty patients range between 0.2 and 3
percent, but those are fairly pessimistic figures, in my experience.
Depending on the severity of the blockage and the number of blockages, the
procedure can take anywhere from 30 minutes to three hours to complete.
This procedure is generally done under local anesthesia, though you may be
given a sedative to help you to relax, while your cardiologist does all the
work!
Of course, sometimes this whole procedure can be avoided. While some of the
causes (age, gender, family history) of coronary artery disease are out of
your control, there are lifestyle choices that often contribute to
blockages. Important factors are obesity, smoking and physical inactivity.
While these factors can contribute to coronary artery disease, they can be
modified. Receiving appropriate treatment for cardiovascular risk factors
such as high blood pressure, diabetes, and high cholesterol will reduce the
likelihood of developing severe coronary blockages.
Smoking I will deal with next week. As an important cause of disease cannot
be overstated. And that is not just lung disease. Smokers should not miss
next week’s column.
 Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
A couple of months ago my husband of 20 years called me a bitch with no
provocation from me at all. I decided to teach him a lesson, and slept in
the spare room that night. He has not spoken to me since then and I continue
to sleep in the spare room and now I am thinking of leaving him. He just
laughs and shrugs it off when I challenge him about it. What is your
opinion, Hillary?
Extremely Annoyed
Dear Extremely Annoyed,
Perhaps if you bark at him again you will get the answer. However, don’t
worry too much, both of you can’t remain in the dog-house forever!
Dear Hillary,
When we go to the beach every Sunday, our day is spoiled by the never ending
stream of beach vendors all trying to sell bolts of material, food,
sunglasses, inflatable toys, model airplanes, candy floss, massages or nail
polish. What can be done about them? Surely the person in charge of the area
could tell them to go, but it doesn’t seem to stop them. Isn’t this against
the law or something? Have you the answer to this problem?
Browned Off on the Beach
Dear Browned Off on the Beach,
Yes, I do have the answer, my Petal. Go to a less populous beach! The
vendors are only there because there are so many people. There are still
many beaches along Thailand’s coastline that are deserted. Be a little more
adventurous and stay away from the well known beaches, drive further along
the coast and enjoy some untroubled sunbathing.
Dear Hillary,
I am beginning to think the lyrics in the old song “If You Wanna Be Happy
for the Rest of Your Life, Never Make a Pretty Woman Your Wife” are right on
the money. On one hand, I am the luckiest guy in the world to have such a
caring, intelligent, and incredibly gorgeous girlfriend. I mean she is a
complete knock-out - a perfect 10. But, on the other hand, that is causing
me many headaches living here in Pattaya. As you know, most men come here
with one thing on their mind. And, no matter where we go in this town, there
are always a slew of pot-bellied, follically-challenged middle-aged swine
completely and unabashedly leering and ogling at my girlfriend. Their
lecherous eyes stare at her as if she were a piece of meat on sale at the
Pattaya Market, and some go so far as to say lewd comments or use their
worst pick-up lines on her. The worst part is their complete lack of respect
and tact. They act as if I am not even there. I would never think of staring
at a woman the way they do to her, especially if I see she has a boyfriend
or husband. I think they feel that since there are lots of bar-girls around
town they can treat any woman like that here. I have to do everything I can
to restrain myself from punching their lights out. I wish I could go to
their country and stare at their poor wives and girlfriends that they have
left back home for their trip of adulterous debauchery here in Pattaya with
the same sort of lust in my eyes as they have when gaping at my girlfriend.
I wonder what their reaction would be? Probably they have as much respect
for their wives and girlfriends back home as they have for the women here.
What do you suggest? Should I just do my best to ignore these neanderthals,
or should I start learning Muay Thai and give them a good kick in the ass?
The Boxer
Dear Boxer,
I do feel for you. There are unfortunately too many of these people who come
to our shores. Whilst their lack of breeding shows them up as what they
really are, it still doesn’t fix your problem, does it Petal? Probably what
you have to do is to start avoiding the haunts where these creatures hang
out. I have said many times that if you don’t want to be part of the ‘beer
bar’ scene, then don’t hang around beer bars. You have a lovely lady who is
“caring, intelligent, and incredibly gorgeous”, so why are you spending time
in the ‘meat market’? Mind you, I am a little worried that your “caring,
intelligent, and incredibly gorgeous girlfriend” has not yet managed to curb
some of your aggression. Kicking ass and punching out lights is decidedly
anti-social behavior, I am afraid. Physical violence will not fix your
problems, my Petal. Changing your social circle is the answer. There are
plenty of places you can go in Pattaya where the males do not indulge
themselves in loutish behavior (so you should not either). I note as well
that you wrote, “I would never think of staring at a woman the way they do
to her, especially if I see she has a boyfriend or husband.” Boxer, you
should not be staring at any woman in a disrespectful way, with or without a
boyfriend or husband. Take your nice girl to nice places and life will turn
for the better.
A Female Perspective: Being popular
with Sharona Watson
Popularity is a funny thing. It seems like
it’s something which many people crave but other people don’t seem to care
about at all. There are many things which contribute to the need or the
desire to be popular: class, culture, education, experience, sex. Men and
women seem to approach the subject differently but maybe inside themselves
what they seek is the same – some kind of acceptance from those around them.
I think there can be little doubt that men go about trying to be popular
with women in a different way than they do when they seek popularity amongst
men. When men are at their most pathetic, (it’s kind of funny in a sad way)
they do things to try and convince each other of their masculinity. In some
cultures, like the British, some continental Europeans and a few other
Anglicised countries, a lot of popularity drives seem to be centred around
the pub, where I suppose there must be some kind of peer pressure to drink
as much as you can, as quickly as you can.
 Andy,
filming in New York City for ‘Beyond the Beach’.
I could never understand it. I suppose one of the reasons for that kind of
‘pub culture’ existing in England is because the pubs shut so early – at
eleven o’clock, so people feel like they are under pressure and in a rush.
That doesn’t exist where I come from, a place where people have too much to
think about just staying alive and making a living. Anyway, it’s too hot to
drink a lot of alcohol in Israel. But I would have thought that it was too
hot here, as well. Happily for me, my husband has always run a mile from
drinking contests. In fact, he claims to have ‘shed most of his Englishness’
long ago. Although that didn’t stop him going in search of ‘Real England’
for ‘Beyond the Beach’ recently, nor prevent him from making a show in New
York City (where he is as I write) about the differences between the English
and the Americans.
What I have sometimes noticed in what I think are the worst possible
examples of male behaviour, is the willingness to let go of principles in
favour of being part of ‘the gang’. Maybe women do it too sometimes, which I
find particularly disappointing. For some reason, I always consider women to
be above that kind of thing. On the other hand, we have all seen and heard
that breed of woman known as a ‘gossip’ who just goes around spreading
rumour and innuendo about people, for one of two reasons (at least). First,
to satisfy some perverse private agenda. Second, because she is bored and is
too stupid to find something more worthwhile to do. Probably a combination
of the two. Probably find her in a pub most of the time.
However, the worst example of forgetting any pretence at decency for the
sake of popularity was one I recently saw with my own eyes, when an obese,
older, married man waddled into a group of his mates singing “I’m back in
the big time!” and then shouted about how (he claimed) he’d made himself
popular with a local girl, which he told them was largely as a result of his
excessive lager drinking. There were lots of women and children around at
the time and I thought it was completely inappropriate.
Whereas, when I told Andy the subject of this article, he emailed me from
the States with a quote by one of his heroes, a footballer called Roy Keane
(I’ve never heard of him); “I’m not in this game to be popular,” he said,
apparently. I like that because it doesn’t mean he wanted to be unpopular,
it means that he was not willing to sacrifice his principles just to be
popular. I was told that Keane walked out of the World Cup (oh dear, it’s
coming again soon!) because he thought that the organisation of his team was
such a shambles. This obviously takes a lot of courage. I like that too. As
it happens, kind of ironically, Keane I am told, seems to have become an
iconic figure. Maybe that’s it? If you truly don’t seek to be popular, you
have more chance of being so, because you won’t be tempted to lie, cheat,
deceive, brag or do stupid things in order to be so.
Whilst on the subject of footballers, I was also sent a very amusing quote
by the manager of Chelsea FC in London, a Portuguese man called Mourinho,
who was not sure if he was going to be watching a football match on
television between two rival teams. “It depends on my wife,” he said, “Maybe
there will be no permission.” I hear that Chelsea FC are so far ahead of all
the other teams, that she was probably arguing that he can afford to forget
about the other games! Maybe he was just trying to be popular with his wife!
I think a good way to understand popularity is to think of the role of
journalism. As a columnist for a newspaper, you might think that I am
worried about being popular. But I am not. I think that it is far more
important to be able to express ourselves freely than to worry about
something as impermanent as the idea of ‘being popular’. If we’re popular as
well, so much the better. As long as you show respect for yourself as well
as another person and are true to yourself, then it will probably happen
anyway. That’s why freedom of the press is so important and as Suchada
Tupchai pointed out recently in a Pattaya Mail editorial, it needs to be
defended. She is in good company. Peter Preston, of the Observer Newspaper
in London wrote, “Press freedom, a precious commodity in desperately short
supply, is an integral part of our wider freedom, not an issue for bullying
or physical threat.” (Peter Preston, The Observer, Sunday February 5, 2006)
It’s a funny thing. I suppose that in the end, being popular is just
something to be enjoyed, rather than to be desired.
Next week: Men on Marriage
[email protected]
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