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HEADLINES [click on headline to view story]:

Money matters

Snap Shots

Modern Medicine

Heart to Heart with Hillary

Psychological Perspectives

A Female Perspective

Money matters: A look at Thai baht

Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.

We recently researched the recent history of Thai baht exchange rates and this is what we uncovered - Thailand adopted a floating exchange rate regime (similar to now) prior to 1963. However, this regime was ended on 20 October 1963 and Baht was linked to U.S. dollar at a rate B20.80 per U.S. dollar. Prior to this Baht had included a gold standard but to allow the Bank of Thailand to retain the pegged exchange rate, the gold content of Thai Baht had to be reduced for several times. This process basically prevented volatility in Baht value against the US$ but, especially when the Nixon administration caused the depreciation of the US$ in 1971 which in turn caused the deprecation of the Baht, it added to Baht volatility against other currencies and also caused reduction of the country’s gold reserves. To avoid further reduction of gold reserves, the BOT introduced a band of up to 4.5% fluctuation range in May 1972 and then up-valued the official rate to B20.00 per U.S. dollar in July 1973.
In March 1978, the Baht’s link to U.S. Dollar was broken as the exchange rate regime was changed from one that was pegged to the U.S. dollar to a system pegged to a weighted basket currency of Thailand’s major trading partners (which is what China claims to be doing currently). Initially the basket comprised of US$, West German mark, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen. Again, the Effective Rate was allowed to float within a limited range (Controlled Floating Rate). In 1979, the Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia and subsequent Chinese retaliation caused a flight of capital from Thailand. In attempt to ease this liquidity crunch, the interest rate of Non-resident Foreign Currency Accounts was permitted to float, the interest rates on Baht accounts were also boosted and a number of currency controls were relaxed. By 1981 the then soaring US$ had increased the costs of imports while depressing the receipts of exports. In response Thailand twice devalued the Baht initially by 1.08% to B21.00 per US$ and then in July that year by 8.7% to B23.00. Between the years 1984 and 1990, the basket of currencies was revised twice ultimately being composed of 10 currencies of Thailand’s major trading partners. In addition to the original components Sterling, Malaysian Ringgit, Hong Kong Dollar, Singapore Dollar, Brunei Dollars, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Pesos. In November 1984 Thai Baht underwent the biggest devaluation that it had experienced changing from B23.00 to B27.15 per U.S. dollar, representing devaluation by 14.8%. During the period of 1984-1997, the Exchange Equalization Fund (EEF) defended the Baht value against the U.S. Dollar by using some monetary and financial measures in line with the pegged exchange rate regime. These interventions by the Central Bank were intended to assist exports and stop capital outflow. A “managed float” was used to control the currency, but market forces led to the collapse of this system amid the Asian currency crisis in 1997.
Since 2 July 1997, Thai Baht has been freely floated with value of the Baht determined by market forces. The Bank of Thailand intervenes in the market only when necessary, in order to prevent excessive volatilities and achieve economic policy targets. Part of the attraction of the floating regime is the enhanced flexibility and efficiency in monetary policy implementation. This allows Thailand to operate within the terms of the free markets and is intended to increase confidence of both domestic and international investors. Initially, to protect the domestic economy against speculating. a two-tier currency market was created to separate exchange rates for investors who bought Baht in domestic and overseas markets, although by January the following year this had been unified, creating a genuine traded value for Thai Baht at any given time.
From 1979 until the free-float was implemented Baht exch rates were as follows -
31 December 1979 20.425
31 December 1980 20.630
31 December 1981 23.000
31 December 1982 23.000
31 December 1983 23.000
31 December 1984 27.150
30 December 1985 26.650
31 December 1986 26.130
30 December 1987 25.070
30 December 1988 25.240
29 December 1989 25.690
28 December 1990 25.265
30 December 1991 25.255
30 December 1992 25.520
30 December 1993 25.540
30 December 1994 25.090
29 December 1995 25.190
31 December 1996 25.550
That’s the past, going forwards we expect the Baht to continue to ply a gradually depreciating mid-path between the currency performance of Thailand’s major trading partners, most notably US$ and Euro, but not forgetting Yen. Therefore the clues to Baht’s performance this year come from its own economic performance and from that of the US, Japan and the Eurozone. In the course of this research we also tried to evaluate the accuracy of published forecasts for THB rates over the last 10 years. In general the performance of forecasters has been poor. Few people have accurately forecast what has happened, i.e. the strengthening of Baht during the two years following Baht bottoming out, the weakening of Baht again once it had touched 36, and the couple of bouts of strengthening and one bout of further weakening since then. We expect the current short term strength to follow its course but then once Baht has become clearly overbought expect a further bout of weakness.
By 2015 capital flows mean that we should expect a Baht that looks 10% weaker against its weighted basket than today. This is potentially interesting for investors - but only if you can pick a currency with a clearly weaker prognosis than Baht (such as US$) and only if your borrowing requirements match the term of that prognosis (say 2 years) and only if you can afford the risks of currency markets behaving as irrationally as they always have in the past, should you even contemplate buying Baht assets with anything other than Baht liabilities. Buying Thai property with loans in, e.g. Singapore Dollar, could prove to be much more expensive than many borrowers might realize. Caveat Emptor!

The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]


Snap Shots: Irving Penn – the B&W Master

by Harry Flashman

While Irving Penn is one of the best photographers America has produced and handled all media, formats and films, for me, his Black and White work stands out as some of the most spectacular photographs of his era. He had an eye for photo and design that was unique, so it is worthwhile spending a little time to look at this great man and his works.
He was born in 1917 in Plainfield, New Jersey. Realizing early that his talents lay somewhere in the artistic world, he enrolled at the age of 17 in a four year course at the Philadelphia Museum School of Industrial Art, where he trained for a career as an art director. At this stage he had no thoughts of becoming a photographer.

Pablo Picasso by Irving Penn.
His first art work experience was as an office boy and apprentice artist for Harper’s Bazaar magazine drawing shoes.
After graduation he had positions as an art director, but he was not happy or convinced that this was all that life was going to offer him, so he went to Mexico for a year to devote himself to painting.
One year was enough to convince Penn that he was not going to make it as a painter and he returned to New York and took a job with Vogue magazine as a junior art director. His work was noticed by the senior art director, but the staff photographers could not deliver the pictures that Penn saw in his mind, which encouraged him to take the photographs himself.
This was the start to a great career. He continued with Vogue, with just a small break for the war effort, and his first exhibition of magazine covers was held in 1947 at the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York.
For me, his work is unique because of his use of light and other devices to isolate his subject from the background. One example of this was his series, taken against a totally plain background, of workers in their working clothes with their tools of trade being the main item to lead the viewer to the industry concerned.

An example of Penn’s work.

He is also the master of side lighting to produce a dramatic atmosphere to his photographs. Look at the shot of Picasso for example. The pose, the close up aspect, the one dramatic eye fixing you, the Spanish hat as the clue – all these items are true art director material – but Irving Penn was an art director who could take the photograph as well.
His use of photographic equipment was also very varied. Since he would envisage a shot before he took it, he would then work out what he felt would be the best equipment to use to produce the shot. His formats were also varied, from 35 mm Leica and Nikon, through to medium format (6x6) Rolleiflex or Hasselblad and then all the way through to giant 8x10 Deardorff plate cameras.
His talents have not gone un-noticed. He was voted as one of the top ten photographers in the world in 1958 and has had his work exhibited internationally as well as some sell-out shows in his native America. Included in these are those in the Museum of Modem Art, the Metropolitan Museum of Art, the Addison Gallery of American Art, the Baltimore Museum of Art and at the Museum of Modern Art in New York (1975) and at the Metropolitan Museum (1977). Published books include ‘Moments Preserved’ (1960), ‘Worlds in a Small Room’ (1974) and ‘Flowers’ (1980).
Irving Penn and his extraordinary capacity for work, versatility, inventiveness, and imagination in a number of fields including editorial illustration, advertising, photojournalism, portraits, still life, travel, and television is someone who truly is a “Master Photographer” and studying his work one wet afternoon will go a long way towards improving our own photography.


Modern Medicine: Rectal bleeding and frog’s bottoms

by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant

Little Johnny was overheard by his teacher describing to his classmates how to insert a firework in a frog, saying, “You slip it up its ass.” The teacher immediately said, “Rectum, Johnny, rectum.” “Wrecked ‘em? Blew ‘em to bits, more likely!” replied Johnny!
So after that irreverent (but not totally irrelevant) beginning let’s look at rectal bleeding, without using a mirror. The rectum is the last portion of the large bowel that ends just before the anus. Bleeding from this area can be a herald sign of a mild or life-threatening matter, which is why all episodes of rectal bleeding must be investigated.
Depending upon how high up in the gastro-intestinal tract is the cause of the bleeding, it may be seen as black, tarry stools, maroon stools; bright red blood on or in the stool, blood on the toilet tissue, or blood staining the water in the toilet bowl bright red. Treatment can range from relief of symptoms and let Mother Nature do the rest, to antibiotics, blood transfusion, or even surgery. It all depends on the cause.
There are many potential causes, including Hemorrhoids (piles) which are swollen rectal veins in the anal and rectal area. They can cause burning, painful discomfort, as well as bleeding. External hemorrhoids are small swellings that are easy to see (with the mirror) and quite painful; however, internal hemorrhoids are usually painless. A feeling of incomplete emptying may be noted with bowel movements. Treatment focuses on relieving these symptoms with the use of stool bulking agents and softeners, and if necessary, ligation of the bleeding piles.
Rectal fissure is another. This is a tear in the lining of the rectum caused by the passage of hard stools, which can lead to mild rectal bleeding of bright red blood. Exposed nerves and vessels result in moderate to severe pain.
Diverticulosis, I dealt with a few weeks ago, and these little pockets on the bowel wall can also bleed. The stools are dark red or maroon. Pain is usually absent but surgery is required in up to 25 percent of these patients.
Bloody diarrhea is often seen in Bacterial dysentery, which we have all had to a greater or lesser degree. Responsible organisms include Campylobacter jejuni, Salmonella, Shigella, Escherichia coli, and Clostridium difficile. A most unsavory bunch! The treatment depends upon the organism, but generally intravenous fluid replacement and an anti-spasmodic and broad spectrum antibiotic will bring this under control.
Another common cause of rectal bleeding is Inflammatory bowel disease especially in young adults - typically those younger than 50 years of age. Bleeding occurs in small to moderate amounts of bright red blood in the rectum, usually mixed in with stool and mucus. Associated symptoms include fever and abdominal cramps. This condition generally settles with steroids.
The list does not stop there, as there are also conditions like Angiodysplasia, which is a vascular problem that involves enlarged veins and capillaries in the wall of the right colon. In the elderly, these areas become fragile and can bleed.
Of course, the one that everyone worries about is bowel cancer. We lump these together under the general heading of tumors and polyps. Polyps bulge out from the lining of the colon. Bleeding occurs when large polyps develop. They can be hereditary, and are usually harmless, but some types can be precancerous.
Both benign and malignant tumors are frequently found in the colon and rectum. Those people older than 50 years are most affected; however, tumors can be found in younger people. It should also be noted that less than 20 percent of people with tumor or polyps will have rectal bleeding. However, when bleeding does occur, it is usually slow, chronic, and minimal. Diagnosis requires careful evaluation with colonoscopy.
Rectal bleeding from a traumatic cause is always a critical concern. Rectal damage from a gunshot wound or foreign body insertion can result in extensive infection or rapid and fatal blood loss.
And yes, there’s more! A common source of bleeding is hemorrhage from the stomach or duodenum. This can occur after someone has swallowed a foreign body that causes injury to the stomach lining or bleeding stomach ulcers.
The list does go on, but these conditions are rare; however, the message is that rectal bleeding must always be investigated, unless Little Johnny is the culprit.


Heart to Heart with Hillary

Dear Hillary,
I read your article published in the 24th of February’s edition of the Pattaya Mail and it disturbed me. It was regarding your reply to Delboy. It is frightening to me that someone would hold such a low opinion for the future of children in Thailand. Is the outlook really that bleak – or maybe you have just forgotten yourself – or just given up hope of a better fate for the people of Thailand.
I would really like to here (sic) from you and maybe you might deem my feelings worthy of printing. I would be interested to find out your ethnic origin as I would find it hard to believe that a farang would be so candid with a disrespectful view of a people.
Matthew
Dear Matthew,
Goodness me, Petal! Were we reading the same newspaper? My light-hearted reply, I shall print again. Delboy was bemoaning the fact that the farangs dress so badly and wrote (in part) “Seriously though, I’m lucky enough to be a volunteer teachers assistant at Anubaan Chiangmai, but I notice a large percentage of the children aren’t really interested in learning English. Do you think it could be that the Farang they see around town puts them off? Delboy”.
I replied in similar vein, “Dear Delboy, Glad to see you are back in Thailand, and enjoying it as much as ever. Probably the reason that the children aren’t interested in English communications is they’re not old enough to know how to use an ATM yet. Give them a couple of years. Teach them “Herro sexy man!”, “Sit dow pleez”, “Wun moah beeyah?” and they’re ready for a long and fruitful association on the economic front with farangs, no matter how they are dressed.” Please read it again, Matthew. Do you think I am being disrespectful? Have you never passed by a beer bar, and heard those words, “Herro sexy man! Sit dow pleez. Wun moah beeyah?” And ponder on my words, “on the economic front with farangs”.
Quite the contrary to what you are suggesting, I believe that the children of Thailand do have a better future than yesterday’s children who have now grown into adults. With appropriate education, the young will not need to make money from the bar trade, but will have worthwhile and well paying careers. But by the same token, there are certain young ladies making far more than me every month! If money is your only yardstick, then “Herro sexy man! Sit dow pleez. Wun moah beeyah?” is also a well paying career.
And as to my ethnicity? Petal, Hillary is a child of the universe.
Dear Hillary,
Once again I have to ask for your help. I’ve done it again, falling in love with a Thai woman who has happily ripped me off, while smiling. No wonder they call this place the land of smiles. With what they’ve got out of me, half of Issan should be smiling, or at least financially better off. I thought I had met Miss Right. She always seemed so pleased to see me, but I think it was my bank account she was smiling at. I know I did not know her very long, but I honestly thought it would be better for us to be together while we got to know each other better, and keep her away from the bars. That was a dumb idea, as all it did was get her to know my financial state better, which is now a lot worse when she left taking as much as she could carry, and then some, what with motorcycle and house in her name. This is really just a warning for other poor saps, as I know you can’t get the money and stuff back for me. But how do you get some honest company round here?
Sam the Sucker
Dear Sam (the Sucker),
Some people are slow learners, my Petal. There is nothing wrong with that, but you should know yourself better by this stage in your life. I am sorry that your Miss Right turned into Miss Nothing Left, and I appreciate your trying to warn others to be more careful, but you are the person you should be warning, before all others. If you must take Miss Right as a live-in companion, that’s fine, but why make her the owner of property bought with your hard-earned money? Sure, it is easier, rather than going through the legals of having holding companies and other ways of retaining ownership, but it leaves you vulnerable, doesn’t it? And if Miss Right turns out to be Miss Wrong, there you go again. When you analyze it, she did not rip you off – you ripped yourself off! When you put yourself in the cage full of lions (and lionesses really) you must expect to be bitten. But surely by now it would be ‘once bitten, twice shy’? I am not suggesting that you have to live like a monk on your own, but I am saying that you have to be a little smarter and remain in control of yourself, your property and your finances. And that is the very best advice (and help) I can give you, Petal. Best of luck in the future.


Psychological Perspectives: Is your workplace “psychologically healthy?”

by Michael Catalanello, Ph.D.

Have you ever thought about how aspects of your work environment might be affecting your psychological health? Perhaps there were times that you felt that your job was draining you of energy or making you “crazy.” On the other hand, if you are fortunate, you may have felt that your work situation was invigorating, making a substantial contribution to the quality of your life, to your ultimate fulfillment.
There is now a large body of research indicating how policies and practices in the workplace can have a dramatic impact upon the psychological health, performance, and productivity of employees. As a result, some organizations have made it a priority to provide innovative programs designed to have a favorable impact upon their employees’ mental and emotional health.
Experts in the field have identified five categories of psychologically healthy workplace practices: employee involvement; health and safety; employee growth and development; work-life balance; and employee recognition. Workplaces that institute practices that positively impact upon these areas have been shown to provide positive benefits to both the employer and employee.
Employees who are consulted by management and involved in decision making processes usually feel more empowered in their work. Toward this end, some organizations have instituted self-managed work teams, or engaged in participative decision making with employees. Providing structured opportunities for suggestions and input from employees is another way of increasing employee involvement.
Obviously, employees have lives and responsibilities apart from their work. Employers can promote the psychological health of their workers by helping them balance the competing demands of their lives. For example, some organizations allow flexible work arrangements, such as flextime and telecommuting. Some offer childcare and eldercare for employees’ family members. Programs like these can make a big difference for employees trying to balance the demands of work and their private lives.
Another way of encouraging psychological health in the workplace is to provide regular opportunities for employees to upgrade their job related knowledge and skills. Employers can promote this by offering regular workplace in-services, tuition reimbursement, leadership development, career development, and counseling programs. By offering opportunities for educational advancement, organizations can better attract and retain high quality employees.
Companies can also provide programs to promote the physical health and safety of their workers. For example, a mental health organization for which I once worked used to provide CPR training, workplace safety, accident prevention, and fire-fighting instructions to all of its employees on a regular basis. Some organizations offer their employees programs to help them quit smoking, increase cardiovascular fitness, or reduce weight. Health and safety programs can result in greater productivity and reductions in healthcare costs, absenteeism and accident/injury rates.
Management recognition of employees for outstanding contributions to the organization can also go a long way toward promoting a psychologically healthy workplace. Employee contributions can be recognized through monetary forms, such as fair monetary compensation, attractive benefits packages, performance-based bonuses and pay increases. Non-monetary forms of recognition, such as employee awards and recognition ceremonies can also be useful.
Communication obviously plays a vital role in any organization. Ideally, communication should flow freely from the bottom of the organization up to the top management, as well as from the top to the bottom. Some organizations provide regular on-going opportunities for employees to provide feedback to management through surveys, town hall meetings, focus groups, and an organizational culture that supports open communication.
Organizational policies and programs that promote a psychologically healthy workplace pay dividends to the organization, as well as the individual. Individuals within organizations that provide for employees’ psychological health typically report greater job satisfaction, higher morale, and a stronger commitment to the organization. Corporate attention to employees’ psychological health have also demonstrated increased productivity, reduced absenteeism, and reduced employee turnover. In fact, research has demonstrated that, all things being equal, an organization that makes the psychological health of its workers a priority is more likely have a healthy bottom line than one that doesn’t.

Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his home State of Louisiana, USA, and a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at Asian University, Chonburi. You may address questions and comments to him at [email protected], or post on his weblog at http://asianupsych.blogspot.com

A Female Perspective: Discussions and Arguments

with Sharona Watson

Am I alone as a woman in thinking that men sometimes seem incapable of having a serious discussion? Instead of having a pleasant conversation, where two people are putting different views, things can quickly degenerate into a slanging match, which before you know it becomes a bona fide argument.
When you have a disagreement with your partner, what would you call it? A discussion or an argument? It can be the most trivial thing, or a pretty big issue, it doesn’t seem to matter. In the end, especially if the woman is making her point forcibly, or ‘winning the argument’, the male seems to react very badly. It doesn’t seem that they like being proved wrong by a woman.
Doesn’t seem to matter what the subject is either. Take washing the dishes as an example. I grew up in a country with hardly any water, so you learned to be very frugal with water use. There are only two things which need to happen when I’m washing dishes: firstly, the dishes need to be clean. Secondly, I need to use as little water as possible. Actually, I find it difficult to understand how any dispute can arise from such a tedious chore. But here comes Andy (admittedly a few years back) trying to tell me to wash up another way, saying ‘his way’ used less water. I mean, have you got nothing better to do than to watch me wash up?
Anyway, the obvious answer was to put it to the test, which we did. And I used less water. Then he said, “Yeah, OK but you break more plates your way” and went into a pathetic sulk. I thought to myself, “That’s it, isn’t it? Men just have to have things done their way”.
I have put that theory to the test a few times, just for fun. On those rare occasions that Andy is allowed to watch football, I might throw in a remark about such and such not being a very good player. He reacts immediately, with something like, “What do you know about football?” Then he sees that I can’t keep a straight face and he laughs.
We had a great discussion recently about ‘perceptions’. Andy came into the house raving about some beautiful coloured shadow and insisted that I take a look. At first I couldn’t see it, until I held up a piece of white paper with a whole in it and looked at the shadow through it. Now, if you can prove something to me, I’ll happily change my view. Can men say the same? If you think about that colour in shadow thing, I suppose you could say that a person’s ability to understand something, whether it’s an object, subject or a situation, is limited by their education and their experience of it? Only when they experience it for themselves or are clever enough to believe the evidence of their own eyes, can they share another person’s understanding.
I think women are always inviting men to understand things in a different and often richer way and that men’s reaction is often to resist, just because we are women. That’s why they come to us all sheepish so often, apologising for their behaviour and telling us we were right all along.
Then there’s the situation where a man and woman are discussing something and the man suddenly claims that you’ve already had that conversation and you both decided on something that you haven’t. He’s playing dirty now, implying that your memory is going funny and usually tying this into his idea that a woman can’t control her chemicals. If you want a discussion to turn into an argument, men, this one will work every time.
Perhaps more worrying is when you do have a discussion about something and then you both remember it differently. Then, one evening, the woman is getting ready to go out and the man is surprised and says he had no idea they were meant to be going anywhere. It’s all down to communication, I suppose. But communication doesn’t always explain behaviour.
A discussion should involve consideration of a question or an issue with both people giving their opinion. For it to become an argument something has to disappear from the discussion and I think the thing which disappears is called respect. As far as I can see, the most obvious signs of this happening are someone interrupting you and not listening to what you are saying. Listening is definitely a skill and it needs practising.
Sometimes, even when I’m not being interrupted, I wonder whether the person I am talking to is really listening to what I am saying, or whether they are just waiting for the opportunity to carry on from where they left off last time they were talking. I’ve noticed that my husband is much better at listening to other people than he is with me, or at least it seems that way. Sometimes I wish he’d do me the same courtesy.
On the other hand, (maybe because he comes from a medical family) he has lots of patience. But when he loses it, he loses it. But it takes a lot to put him in that condition. He thinks he’s lost his Englishness and become more Israeli and that I’ve done the opposite, that we’ve swapped cultural pieces of each other. I don’t think I’ve become English at all. It’s true that when we argue, it’s kind of passionate and “Mediterranean”, waving our hands all over the place. Come to think of it, our discussions sometimes sound like other people’s arguments.
They say in Israel that two people equal three opinions and it can seem like that in our house. But when it’s all over and the dust has settled, the important thing is that you make up. You say sorry if you need to say sorry and you admit you were wrong when you were wrong. Or as I say to Andy, “After twenty minutes we decide I was right!”
Next week: Motherhood
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