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Money matters: A short history of the only real currency (part
2)
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
What does the Market
have to say?
Gold traditionally has strong support near the 65 week
moving average, currently near $418.5, which is fast approaching. Also,
note the positive divergence via the MACD histogram (graph 1) that is
currently forming. This tells me that a bottom in gold metal may be near.
Judging by the commercial trader’s data, it could happen very soon,
possibly within the next week or so.
GRAPH 1
Also take notice how the time frame between each
subsequent pullback to the 65 week moving average has been decreasing,
i.e. 16.5 months, 13 months, 9 months, 4 months, and recently just less
than two months. What does this mean? It means that the range is getting
tighter and tighter and that a large price movement is in store for gold
in the near future.
The commercial traders appear to be adept at timing
major tops and bottoms in gold metal. As you can see from graph 2, the
commercial traders typically have a net short position of 50K or less
during major bottoms. During major tops, the commercial traders typically
have a net short position of 150K and above.
GRAPH 2
The net short position recently topped out at 166K, and
as a result, gold metal pulled back from the 440s to the low 420s.
The current net short position as of July 19th is 84K.
This is good news because it indicates that a major bottom may be close,
possibly within the next week or so. Remember, we want to see the
commercial net short position fall to 60K or below for a major bottom.
While many newsletter writers and financial websites
are now super bearish on gold stocks, they are starting to look
interesting to me. Gold stocks are outperforming relative to the metal,
which is bullish. You can see that a downtrend line has been broken on the
HUI/Gold ratio chart (graph 3).
The chart (graph 3) is my original long-term HUI/Gold
ratio chart, along with major buy/sell signals as noted via green/red
arrows. The system is as follows:
Major buy signals are generated when downtrend lines
are broken. The 50 MA is then used as a support level to keep an
investor/trader in the major run up. After the buy signal is generated, as
long as the ratio chart stays above the 50 MA, investors should hold their
gold stocks. Major sell signals are finally produced when the ratio
subsequently falls below the 50 MA support.
It appears that a trader/investor can ride the majority
of an uptrend and be out during the big consolidations and pullbacks by
employing this simple method.
I noticed that Alexander Hamilton of Zeal published an
article on a HUI/Gold ratio trading system recently. Alexander Hamilton
writes a great weekly newsletter.
GRAPH 3, 4
A short-term chart of the HUI/Gold ratio (GRAPH 4) shows that the
broken downtrend line is now acting as support. This is a good sign.
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The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be
reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept
any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any
responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not
taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please
contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: Could you make it as a pro photographer?
by Harry Flashman
 I
have written about this a few times over the years, and I was reminded of
this the other day when one of the readers sent in a couple of his
photographs, asking if there might be a market for them. I believe just
about every semi-serious photographer dreams about getting paid for his
pictures. And it does happen. Pattaya coin collector Jan Olav Aamlid went
up the Pattaya Park Tower with a bunch of loonies called BASE jumpers who
jumped off the parapet and floated to earth via parachute. Jan Olav got
some photographs that ended up being published in Norway and he got paid
handsomely. Jan Olav, in fact, couldn’t believe just how much!
When Harry Flashman became a “Pro” do you know what
my best piece of equipment was? No, it wasn’t his camera. No, it
wasn’t the flash lighting gear. No, it wasn’t the tripod. It was a
book!
That book was written by a Canadian Professional
Photographer, Richard Sharabura, and was called “Shooting your way to a
$-Million”. Now well out of print (it was published in 1981) it is still
the best book I have ever read as far as being a handbook for budding
professional photographers. I still have my copy, and still refer to it
every so often. The advice is just as pertinent today as it was twenty
four years ago. Anyone who has ever contemplated any form of “pay me for
my pictures” should read this book. Previously when I wrote about this
book, local amateur Ernie Kuehnelt went looking and managed to locate a
second hand copy through Amazon Dot Com, so it is still possible to find
copies.
The opening paragraphs state, “No other profession
spawns more eager hopefuls. No other profession calls so many and chooses
so few.” Sharabura goes on “... Practically every photographer has a
preconceived notion about what he (or she) will shoot or not shoot. This
is probably one of the most common stumbling blocks to financial
success.”
Sharabura believes in being a generalist. In other
words, you should be able to shoot anything. And I mean everything. It is
no good saying to a potential customer, “Sorry, but I only shoot camels
in mid-summer!” You have no idea of the number of photographic jobs that
can come from one initial request to shoot one particular subject. I began
with a shot of a concrete truck, which expanded into a glamour calendar,
then an engagement shot and a wedding - all from the same corporate
executive. Be versatile is the answer!
There is no secret to becoming versatile. Just as the
tennis pros play lots of tennis to get to the top, so do the photographic
pros shoot lots of film to get to the top.
A good exercise is to pretend you are now the ace
photographer for this newspaper! Just take a look at the different
pictures in any newspaper and see what I mean about being versatile. There
are photos of visiting celebrities, holes in the road, funerals, schools,
construction sites, sporting tournaments, floods and even babies.
Each weekend give yourself an assignment and go out and
cover it pictorially. Here’s a few for you to try: public transport,
road chaos, motorcycle helmets, your local temple.
Go out and illustrate your topic, as if the editor had
told you to cover it. Make your shots describe the action, scene or
activity. Think about how you are going to do it and how you are going to
show it. Make the subject the “hero” and the main item of interest in
all the shots.
Do all that and you are already thinking like a
“pro”. Do it enough times and you will take shots like a “pro”. Do
that enough times and people will pay you like a “pro”.
The same can happen for you - just keep on shooting film and eventually
someone will pay you for your hobby! And being paid for something you like
doing is a real buzz! But remember that like all things - practice makes
perfect!
Modern Medicine: Mammograms and BSE
by Dr. Iain Corness, ConsultantScreening
for breast cancer is still a subject that seems to be controversial, though
honestly, I do not know why. The sensationalist press feeds on fear, and by
instilling fear into women about breast cancer will always sell a few more
papers. It is not so long ago that one of the international news magazines
had a front cover story on breast cancer screening, with the inference being
that it was probably all a waste of time. Despite mammograms and suchlike,
there were cases that escaped detection until it was too late and other such
negative predictions. Was it all then a waste of resources and money?
Ladies, let me assure you that it is none of those.
Unfortunately, the cancer detection story is one that suffers from a problem
which can be associated with an inexact science. Since we can put men on the
moon, clone sheep (and even rabbits in Chonburi, apparently) and other
incredible facts, we should then be able to diagnose human conditions with
pin-point accuracy. Unfortunately wrong!
Diagnosis and detection are “real time” arts, not
sciences, even though we would like them to be. Sure, we use “science”
as a tool, but that is all it is. A tool to help us see the problem. Just
like we can use a telescope to see things at a distance - even if we can’t
see the object, that doesn’t mean to say it wasn’t there. The telescope
was facing the wrong way; the object was behind not in front.
There has been a bit of that thinking with mammograms of
late. A lady has three annual clear mammograms and then finds she has
advanced breast cancer during year number four. Was the testing useless?
Again I ask you to look at the “real time” situation.
So today cancer was found. When did it “start” to grow? This week, this
month, this year? The answer depends upon the type of the cancer. Some fast
growing cancers would be impossible to pick up, even if the person had
monthly mammograms. The slow growing variety can be picked up years ahead.
Unfortunately mammography cannot be a 100 percent indicator - we are not
that good - yet. But it is still one of the best diagnostic procedures we
have. And it is better than nothing.
Likewise, Breast Self Examination (BSE) has its
detractors as well as its proponents. Sure, a lot depends upon how well the
woman carries out this self testing, but again, surely it is better to look
than to carry on in blissful innocence?
I do not believe the doomsayers who would tell you that
the outcome is just the same. Breast cancer is like all cancers - the sooner
you find it, the sooner you can deal with it and the earlier treatment is
administered, the better the outcome. In fact, did you know that studies
from the American National Cancer Institute show that 96 percent of women
whose breast cancer is detected early live 5 or more years after treatment?
This is called a 96 percent five year survival rate, one of the ways we
measure the severity of life threatening cancers. If it were a 10 percent
figure - in other words, after 5 years only 10 percent of the people were
still alive, then I would probably also feel that predictive testing was not
all that worthwhile. But it is not that bleak an outcome - 96 percent are
still alive and many go on for many, many years.
Ladies, talk with your doctor regarding breast screening,
and ignore sensationalism in the popular press!
Learn to Live to Learn: The Wright Man
with Andrew Watson
It was dark now. Encased in our glass canopy, Chris
Wright and I talked deep into the night, warmed by candles and fuelled
by his sensational desire for informed debate. Occasionally, a cloud
would move aside to reveal a full, incandescent moon, bejewelled by
stars. Sometimes, it truly seems that it is only through darkness that
we can see the light. If I felt slightly seduced by Chris Wright’s
oratory, the inquisitor in me demanded to know yet more. I really wanted
to get to the heart of what this Guru thought was the role of education
in combating extremism. As ever, he considered the question in quiet
earnest before answering.  Chris
Wright: “The search for truth is far from simple”
CW:
“For seven years (1995-2002) I worked at an international school in
Jerusalem, Israel, first as Deputy Principal and then as Director. In
late September 2000, the Al Aqsa Intifada broke out. Within a matter of
weeks the situation in Israel/Palestine lost its moral bearings. Few
people could remember a spiral of violence with the horrendous intensity
of this one. The situation degenerated into a seemingly unbreakable
cycle of vengeance. On returning to the UK in
2002 we were soon to face the outbreak of the war against Afghanistan
and then Iraq, followed by the cycle of terrorism which erupted in their
wake, culminating most recently in the series of terrorist attacks this
summer in London. I work in a city which has seen a rise in right wing
nationalist groups, and a growth in racist attitudes.
So when you ask me, what is the role of education in
the face of such extremism? My answer is this: I believe that
educationalists have a critical role to play in enabling students to
understand the world in which they live, to fight against stereotypes
and prejudice which is often peddled by the media, in which a dynamic of
hate is being played out. This dynamic works in a number of ways:
Firstly, it sees the enemy as ‘the other’ – and by so doing
dehumanizes the enemy. The other becomes faceless, and personality-less.
It is easier that way to attack and kill them.
Secondly, hate does not differentiate – instead of
talking about this or that Israeli, this or that Palestinian, this or
that Muslim, people talk about the Israelis, the Palestinians, the
Muslims, as though all Israelis were the same and of the same viewpoint,
and as though all Palestinians were the same. In fact there are many
different shades of Israelis, Palestinians and Muslims. There are many
peace-loving Palestinians and Israelis who are working together to bring
about a speedy end to their horrific conflict. The majority of Muslims
take to heart the peaceful message of Islam and distance themselves
completely from the terrorist activities of others who act in the name
of Islam.
Thirdly, language is used as a form of propaganda –
is the Palestinian suicide bomber a freedom fighter who has been
stripped of every form of dignity and now only has his life to play with
or is he a nameless terrorist who is determined to wreak havoc on
a peaceful state? What distinguishes President Bush or Prime Minister
Blair who wage a dubious war on Afghans and Iraqis from the despots they
wish to usurp?
As educationalists, we are not only conveyors of
knowledge; we want our pupils to be critical thinkers and not just
transmitters of society’s stereotypes, hatred and prejudice. But the
search for truth is far from simple. It takes courage to enter into
dialogue with “the other side” and recognise a different opinion.
President George Bush proclaimed: “Either you’re with us or you’re
with the terrorists.” (One myopic relic once said as much to me –
“either you’re in, or you’re out!”) It is so easy for the
world to become divided into friends (who can get away with murder) and
enemies (who won’t get away with anything). So, we decide that Saddam
Hussein must be in league with al-Qa’ida, even though he’s murdered
many of their fellow Islamists. And when a bomb goes off in Bali, in
Britain there’s a sudden jump in support for a war against Iraq.
Educationalists should do all they can to help
students to understand the complex nuances of what is really going on,
and why. It requires us to see things from other people’s points of
view. And it prompts us to make constructive efforts to resolve
misunderstandings, deal with grievances, look for compromises and
restore relationships. It may not get the adrenalin going, or generate
dramatic pictures; but it works. And it usually costs much less - in
dollars and in lives - than a hail of not-so-smart bombs.”
I don’t know about you, but I was deeply moved by
these words. We sat in silence as the impact of this teaching began to
resonate within me. Reassuring, too, that we spoke the same language and
how rare a talent this man possesses, I considered, to be able to
unravel with such apparent ease, a conundrum which continues to perplex
many, if not the majority. And there’s the rub. In this sanctuary of
truth, we were safe and at ease but education happens “out there” in
the field, in the “real world”. To paraphrase Tolkien, “We still
have the dark, foreboding hills of Mordor to climb.”
[email protected]
Next Week: Integrity
 Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
I’ve been reading your articles for a couple of years. I like they way
you handle all these stupid people that came up with stupid questions.
You did give them the right answers the same as I thought. I am a
musician performing seven days a week in Bangkok. I am a French citizen
of Asian origin. We are all living in Thailand and making our living
here. What I would like to say is that anybody who is not happy living
in Thailand or complains too much about Thai people, they can leave the
country. Go back to their country, lock themselves in the room and watch
TV alone. I speak Thai as good as my mother tongue. Please print this in
your column to let all these idiots to know. I am not rich but one day I
promise you I will send you the French Champagne and the chocolates that
you like. Hillary, you are a lovely lady. I love you.
Johnny
Dear Johnny,
What can I say? Protestations of love from talented French musicians!
You wouldn’t be Charles Aznavour, would you? Pity, I would imagine
he’s worth a few baht these days (if he’s not dead). Hillary is
flattered, and will probably have to rush off to the rest room and
refresh my lippy and powder my nose, just in case you op by! Thank you,
Petal. Thank you! And I agree with you as far as foreigners are
concerned. If you don’t like it here, then quietly go back to where
you came from, and leave all the others to enjoy this country in peace.
The initial mistake is this - many foreigners believe that Thais want to
change things and are (silently) asking the interlopers what they would
do under the circumstances, when in fact, the Thais have not asked at
all. This country has got to where it is without foreigners showing them
“better” ways of doing things. If Thailand changed to be like the
UK, Europe or other western countries, then the foreigner would complain
that life here is too restrictive. You are welcome to come here and live
quietly. When Thailand wants to draw on your undoubted experience,
Thailand will give you a call. In the meantime, don’t sit by the phone
is what Johnny is telling you (and his new girlfriend Hillary).
Dear Hillary,
I am an attractive Caucasian girl with my fair share of rich male
boyfriends. I am taken out to expensive restaurants where I am wined and
dined. At the end of the evening my partner always gives me a gift. My
problem is that I am sick and tired of receiving the usual diamond
bracelets, gold watches or precious stoned pendants. I would die for a
box of chocolates or a bottle of champagne. Hillary, I am aware that you
are able to procure these simple gifts from your many male admirers. I
need to know how you do it. I was hoping that we girls could get
together one night, frock up in our best evening attire and strut our
stuff one night. Are you willing?
Minnie Mouse
Dear Minnie,
Hello again Minnie, and I am glad to see you are starting to let us all
into the secrets of your life. And what a spoiled little coquette you
really are. The reason you don’t get chockies and champers is quite
simply because you are too easy with your favours. Hillary could get
cartloads of Cartiers and diamonds from De Beers too, if she were to let
her standards slip. No, young girl, keep them at arms length, don’t be
an easy mark or lay, down too quickly. Tell them firmly that it’s
chocolates and champagne at best, nothing else. I am sorry too, that I
can’t get together with you, but the night air is not good for me
these days, and all the champagne makes my head spin. By the way, why
don’t you try and meet up with Mighty Mouse, you would be able to send
each other into a mindless vacuum. Finally, remember Eric Althwaite?
Interests were local rain gauges and shovels. He seems an exciting
individual these days.
Dear Hillary
My work colleagues have all decided that I am gay because I don’t live
with anyone, while they all are living with a succession of local girls.
Every week I hear another tale of woe and how they have been cleaned
out. Every week I thank my lucky stars that this is them not me. They
just go straight back into another relationship, which ends up just like
the previous ones - a disaster. They seem to think that I have something
against women, while I don’t, but they keep on saying, “Got a feller
yet?” I haven’t got anything against gays either, it’s just that
I’m not one. How do I get them to understand at work?
Getting Annoyed
Dear Getting Annoyed,
Jai yen yen! Maintain a cool heart! They are only keeping this up
because you continue to rise up (to the bait). When they get no reaction
from you, they will stop. It may seem hard, but just ignoring them will
produce the desired result. By the way, don’t comment on their
relationships and they will give up commenting on your lack of
relationships too.
Psychological Perspectives: Crescent City in crisis
by Michael Catalanello,
Ph.D.
The beautiful city of New Orleans became
a city in crisis after being devastated by powerful category 5 Hurricane
Katrina on Monday, August 29.
In the aftermath of the storm, dead and decaying bodies
were left lying in city streets. Displaced, disoriented, and despairing
locals remained without food and water. By week’s end, according to news
reports, conditions in the metropolitan area were worsening. Water poured
through a deteriorated section of the levee system which ordinarily
protects the low-lying city from encroachment by the waters of Lake
Ponchatrain.
Just as it seemed the worst of this natural disaster had
passed, a man-made disaster erupted. New Orleans suddenly descended into
anarchy. Armed gangs roamed neighborhoods. Robberies, rapes, even sniper
attacks were reported. Stores and homes were looted, with some reports of
police and firemen joining in the illegal activity. A forklift was
commandeered, and used to break into a pharmacy. Neglected sick and elderly
people were seen dying in the streets. As I watched the live reporting on
CNN, my home town, “The Big Easy” seemed barely recognizable.
As a kid growing up in New Orleans, I developed mixed
feelings concerning hurricanes. Although I realized they represented a
danger, a part of me tended to view them as a colorful and exciting part of
the local culture. Like Mardi Gras, summer outings to Ponchatrain Beach,
and Christmas Day, the annual parade of hurricanes through the Caribbean
and the Gulf of Mexico sometimes introduced a welcome change from the
humdrum of our daily routines.
With each new hurricane season, my family would
inevitably find itself gathered in front of the TV to hear our trusted
local weatherman Nash Roberts give us the up-to-the-minute coordinates on
the latest tropical disturbances threatening the Gulf Coast. We sometimes
plotted their paths on hurricane watch maps provided by public service
organizations.
For me and my family, living in a suburb of New Orleans,
most of these storms never amounted to much. They would occasionally make
landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast far from New Orleans, or forge a
path through the waters of the Atlantic to threaten our neighbors on the
East Coast. New Orleans would occasionally be lashed by high winds, while
excess rains produced minor street flooding.
As kids, my friends, siblings, and I generally
considered a hurricane threat as potential for fun and adventure. Following
heavy downpours we would often enjoy wading, or riding bikes through
friendly neighborhood streams, while the city’s pumps struggled to remove
the water from our sunken paradise. School closings occasionally provided
an unexpected bonus.
New Orleans suffered significant damage and loss of life
in 1965 when Betsy, a category 2 hurricane, came ashore. Trees were
toppled. Branches and debris littered our streets. We were without power
for several days. School was suspended.
A very severe category 3 Hurricane Camille came ashore
in 1969. We were again left without electricity for many days. My brothers
and I were soon recruited by neighbors to help polish off gallons of
melting ice cream that had been stored in neighborhood freezers. What kid
could ask for more?
Weathermen and commentators always made a point of
emphasizing the dangerous aspects of hurricanes, and encouraged local
communities to remain vigilant. Nevertheless, the tragic stories of deaths,
demolished homes, and displaced families, which inevitably followed these
storms, seemed remote from our idyllic world.
Watching the latest chaos unfolding in my home town, my
emotions were torn. Although members of my immediate family wisely
evacuated to safety, the condition of their homes remains uncertain.
Moreover, it is unknown how long it will take to secure the levee system
sufficiently to allow the city’s pumps to restore the area to dry land,
and the city’s residents to return home.
A number of aspects of this tragedy scream for
psychological analysis: the apparent risks taken by those who defied the
mandatory evacuation order, the sudden rise of antisocial acts in the
aftermath of the storm, the desperation of those battling one another for
space on crowded busses evacuating the thousands of homeless refugees, the
apparent lack of adequate preparedness by local officials, the neglect of
flood prevention projects by federal officials.
Because this tragedy has hit so close to home, rather
than provide a detached psychological perspective, I will use this space to
express my heartfelt sadness and condolences to my family, friends, and
neighbors, the people of New Orleans and surrounding areas, and all those
affected by the storm.
This is our “tsunami.” Our people have lost loved ones. Our homes
are destroyed. The extent of our loss is still being realized. Our
beautiful, historic city has suffered irreparable damage. Although we will,
no doubt, recover from this tragedy, our city will never be the same. We
will never be the same.
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Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his home State of Louisiana, USA, and a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at Asian University,
Chonburi. You may address questions and comments to him at [email protected], or post on his weblog at
http://asianupsych.blogspot.com
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