Money matters: Financial Market
Part 3
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Increases in interest rates and declines in stock prices
would undoubtedly reduce domestic demand further at this critical time. Also, as
the authors admit, “Large declines in the dollar and sharp movements in other
asset prices could damage balance sheets positions in ways that might also
restrain spending. Finally, such financial market developments might erode
business and consumer confidence.”
They manage to brush this aside by simply looking at the
their data sample and concluding, “However, these contractionary effects
likely would be substantially (and perhaps more than fully) offset by the
positive effect on net exports of dollar depreciation.”
We’ve already said that none of the other economies had the
same debt burden, the same asset bubble, the same trade imbalances, a current
account imbalance of this proportion but perhaps the biggest flaw is the
thinking that a currency devaluation could lead to a huge take-up in US exports.
US growth and consumption rates have been totally exceptional
in relation to the other global economies over the last few years. The other
growth stories around the world have been largely on the back of the US economic
success story. There is nowhere to be seen an obvious consumption market for US
exports on the scale that would be necessary to address a deficit of this size.
On top of that, the effect of a U.S. recession would be devastating for China,
the Asian Tigers, Latin America, Canada, India as well as Europe too.
MBMG has strong opinions on how things will pan out, but like
everyone else we’re only really guessing. Unlike the researchers, we admit
that we’ve never been here before, and we recognise that none of the quoted
data has even the most passing resemblance to where we now find ourselves.
In fairness they don’t claim to be assessing the likelihood
of disruption – “The authors intent is not to formally test the disorderly
correction hypothesis - that hypothesis does not specify the source of the
shocks that induce adjustment, nor the causal chain leading from those shocks to
key financial and economic variables, with sufficient clarity to allow such a
test. Rather, our intent is merely to assess whether an important number of past
external adjustment episodes in industrialized economies evidenced features
similar to those described by the disorderly correction scenario.”
But then why bother to undertake the study at all if no valid
comparative data is available. Why write a research paper studying in great
detail a data set of 23 totally distinct, different, inappropriate and
inadmissible episodes of current account adjustment in response to fears about
the effects of current account adjustments in the USA?
Why identify what factors caused the seven episodes of
greatest economic expansion and greatest economic contraction within this data
set if, fundamentally, not one of the episodes stands up as directly comparable
evidence. Why exclude the emerging market data because of the criteria of
foreign currency debt (which also applies to many developed country examples
within the survey), when we would argue that great parallels could be drawn from
the experience of many developing economies in the past decade?
For example, Mexico in 1995, the Asian countries in 1997-98
and, most recently, Argentina. After 2001 all point to an association between
current account adjustment and contractions in GDP, especially when a currency
crisis accompanies the current account reversal.
Ultimately we don’t believe that the experience of these
developing economies would be a good road map. We don’t dispute that they are
more reliant on foreign currency denominated debt than industrial economies and
therefore, they suffer greater balance-sheet deterioration in the face of the
currency declines associated with adjustment.
But there are very many similarities in terms of the extent
of leveraging, asset bubbles, growth rate discrepancies and economic imbalances
which would merit a detailed study.
Undoubtedly the detail in which the authors have analysed the
economic and financial indicators across 23 episodes and across the expansion
and contraction episodes in particular is an impressive work of scholarship.
Impressive but sadly and, ultimately, irrelevant.
Detailed over are the 23 episodes – I just don’t see any
relevant structural similarities between where the US is at in 2005 and where
the US was in 1987, where Canada was 1981 to 1993 or the UK in 1989 or
Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Sweden,
Norway, New Zealand, Finland, Ireland, Greece have even been.
If history has any precedent for where we might be heading, I don’t think
that the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System International Finance
Discussion Paper Number 827 takes us any close to finding it. Please contact us
if you would like a copy of the above paper.
The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be
reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can
accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor
bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions
taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more
information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: Medium Format - is it worth it?
by Harry Flashman
For
all of my pro photographer life I had medium format cameras as part of the
equipment I used. There was no getting away from the fact that to show an
art director a 6 cm x 6 cm transparency on the light box was much more
impressive than squinting at a 35 mm slide. Mind you, when you dropped a 5
inch by 4 inch transparency down beside them, it looked more impressive
again.
So if bigger is better, or size matters or suchlike,
why not use 5x4 all the time? Size of the camera and ease of use covers
all that. While I have taken a 5x4 on location, it practically required a
team of native bearers to carry it, the film holders and light-proof bags
and the tripod and compendium. No, 5x4 is wonderful in the studio and
impractical in the wild (unless your name is Ansel Adams and you are
prepared to wait days to get the clouds in the right place).
Having decided that medium format was going to be
needed and that it was much more practical than 5x4, it was necessary to
see what was on the market and how did I find them in use. Fortunately,
since there was quite a nest of photographers in the area it was possible
for me to try out various models before taking the plunge myself.
The first was the Pentax 6x7. I was initially attracted
to the fact that it was like a larger 35 mm camera. A full range of lenses
were available from fish-eye to 1000 mm telephoto. I was sure it was going
to be ‘my’ camera - till I used it! The sheer physical size of the
thing made it unwieldy. 184 mm wide, 149 mm high and 156 mm deep (and that
is the body only). And what did it weigh? A whopping 2.4 kg, that’s
what. Then there was the delay between depressing the shutter and the
horrible ‘thunk’ inside as it all happened, the shutter shuddered and
the mirror clanked its way out of the way! No, it wasn’t a Pentax 6x7.
I then tried the Mamiya RB 67 Pro-S. This is not like a
35 mm camera, but rather like a large box with a film holder on the back
and a viewing screen on the top. Difficult to get used to initially, but
it certainly took sharp photos, but the interlocks eventually wore me
down. To take verticals or horizontals with this 6x7 camera you had to
flick levers and turn backing plates - it was all too fiddly, though there
are pro photographers out there who swear by their Mamiyas.
However, the medium format camera that everyone spoke
about in hushed tones were the Hasselblads. These had the largest system
with four cameras, over 20 lenses and interchangeable backs, including
Polaroid. You can practically photograph anything with a Hasselblad, and
even though it is medium format, even the motor-driven ones are not as
heavy as the Pentax. While there is a waist level view finder, most
photographers opt for the metering prism viewfinder which was so accurate
you could almost dispense with light meters. It really was the case of a
quick adjustment, trial with Polaroid, and if it was OK, blast away.
I have to admit I loved my ‘Blads, but as the years
rolled on and 35 mm film became even sharper, the need for medium format
became less. Even the art directors began to see that unless you wanted to
blow the image up to the size of the side of a house, 35 mm was quite
satisfactory.
But there was still a great satisfaction to be had from using the 6x6
camera and looking at the gorgeous transparencies. Unfortunately, except
for some very specific reasons, medium format has been superseded and now
with the digital revolution will soon be museum pieces. However, if you
ever do see a medium format camera going for sensible money, do get it and
try it. You will get a satisfaction from your photography that is hard to
beat, especially compared to today’s auto-everything electronic marvels.
Modern Medicine: Monitoring your own BP
without fears or tears
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Blood pressure is something we all have. If
you haven’t got Blood Pressure, then you are dead because your heart (the
pump) has stopped pumping.
While we all have Blood Pressure (BP), high blood pressure
(hypertension) is not what we want, as it can lead to many medical emergencies
and strokes. Hypertension is life threatening. Normal tension is not.
Blood pressure is the measure of the force of blood inside an
artery. We get this number by putting pressure around the arm with an inflatable
cuff until the artery is squashed flat, then slowly lower the cuff pressure and
when we hear the blood squirting through again, that is the peak pressure,
called the systolic. The actual units of measurement are called millimeters of
mercury, and come from the old sphygmomanometers (BP recorders) that measured
pressure with a column of mercury.
However, there is another pressure we measure, and this is
the resting (or ambient) pressure, called the diastolic. With today’s
automated home blood pressure recorders the screen will indicate this one too.
This is the lower of the two readings and BP is expressed as systolic over
diastolic, and is shown, say for example, 140/90.
High blood pressure is often referred to as the “silent
killer,” because it usually has no obvious symptoms and most people cannot
tell if their own blood pressure is high unless it is measured. Home blood
pressure monitors make it easy for you to measure your BP.
Electronic battery-operated monitors use a microphone to
detect blood pulsing in the artery instead of having to listen with a
stethoscope. The cuff, which is attached to your upper arm, is connected to an
electronic monitor that automatically inflates and deflates the cuff when you
press the start button. First you place your upper arm inside the cuff. Then
press the start button on the monitor and wait for the reading to be displayed.
The monitor also records your pulse as well as your blood pressure. While these
electronic devices are by far the easiest to use, they are also the most
expensive, but can be an invaluable tool in self-monitoring.
There are a few rules, or guides, to getting reproducible
results from home monitoring. You should not have just eaten or used any tobacco
products. Do not take medications known to raise BP (such as certain nasal
decongestant sprays), or do strenuous exercise before taking your BP readings.
Avoid taking your blood pressure if you are nervous or upset. Rest at least 15
minutes before taking a reading.
Other important factors are that BP is higher in the mornings
and lower at night, so take your recordings at the same time of day. There can
also be differences between your two arms, so use the same one each time too.
The very rough guide as to “normal” and “high” BP is
as follows. If your BP is less than 140/90 then it is most likely of no problem.
If however, either the systolic or diastolic is over 140/90, then this ‘may’
indicate a problem.
The other very important factor to remember is that one BP
reading does not mean that your BP is always at that level. That goes for the
so-called normal, or even the hypertensive readings.
In the initial stages, take three readings a day, then drop
it back to daily. Record the readings each time, and if consistently up, see
your doctor. By the way, if you are already on blood pressure medication, let
your doctor adjust the dosage - not you!
Learn to Live to Learn: Risk, what risk?
with Andrew Watson
Notwithstanding unforeseen variables,
there is a certain quantifiable risk in all choices. When advising
students on their potential choices for university, I am always
astounded how many seem to consciously avoid the thought of Oxford,
Cambridge, Yale, and Harvard as if it’s a world to which they can’t
belong, a party to which they’re not invited!
I’ve been shocked when I’ve heard teachers who
have never been to Oxbridge misrepresent the institutions as being
“full of snobs”. Funnily enough, my brother is a case in point. He
could have chosen any university in the world, his ‘A’ levels were
that good. I urged him to consider Cambridge and he replied that he
wouldn’t, on the grounds that “I don’t like the people, they’re
all snobs”. I asked him to list the people he knew from Cambridge.
After ten minutes he came up with two names. One was our father. “Is
he a snob? Do you like him?” He accepted the folly of his presumptuous
prejudice but went ahead and chose Liverpool anyway but for more sound
reasons. But I did wonder, what harm would there have been in trying?
After all, he didn’t know anybody from Liverpool!
Following on from last week’s column, ‘Aspiring
to Excellence’, according to Oscar Wilde, “an idea which carries
with it no risk ceases to be an idea”. There are low level, medium
level and high-level risks, calculated risks and recklessness and
that’s where judgment comes in. Of course, people who are free to
choose may choose wrongly, as Handy in “The Age of Unreason” (1990)
points out; “This is the age-old paradox. Sin is the other side of
freedom’s coin. A world without sin would be a world without choice.
Individual freedom can easily mean freedom not to care.” Uncontrolled
growth, without care, attention or strategy, can be cancerous,
poisonous, whilst a tree born of love and integrity will bear luscious
fruit.
On the basis that the future is unseen, what is there
to fear? Let’s just do it! This kind of philosophy has often been
viewed as potentially subversive, rebellious, even anarchic, so little
surprise that organisations, mired in restrictive practice, or stuck in
a time warp, might want to repress such sentiment, conversation or
activity.
Yet it is, I propose, a far greater risk not
to allow these natural tendencies to be expressed than to channel them
through safe and navigable waters. A school is a great place to learn
about the good, bad and ugly sides of life, from within what we hope is
a caring, nurturing and challenging environment.
Over and over again I have heard serious authorities
on many subjects talk of “risk taking” but what do they really know
about the business of risk? It appears to me that if many like the sound
of the word, few seem to understand what it entails.
Allowing a student in school true self-expression
feels (or felt, depending on which century you consider yourself a part
of) like a risk, but it isn’t! A (western) teacher (because I
recognise that this is a western-centric statement) who resists
questions, or who interprets questions as insolence, who scents
insurrection instead of intellectual stimulation, has reached the end of
the road. Really. And the student knows it.
If you truly trust a student, if you allow them to
become real, three dimensional people, you will be rewarded by
witnessing their blossoming and they will love you for it. Treat them
with suspicion, or disdain, make them feel oppressed and they’ll make
your life a misery and you’ll deserve it. “Flat people are those who
have only one dimension to their lives” (E.M. Forster).
Fear of allowing self-expression might be
understandable, even instinctive sometimes, but it’s the first response,
one which we must always seek to travel beyond.
Similarly (and I touched on this last week as well),
when taking a ‘risk’ on a student, there really shouldn’t be any
risk involved at all. If they are a ‘weaker’ student, you provide
them with the support they need to succeed, whatever it takes.
That’s the deal. It includes academic and pastoral support as and when
required and close liaison with the parent/guardian (I once heard of
student whose father was referred to, in her presence, as “your
fee-payer”- shocking!)
Nonetheless, parents are not paying big bucks to be
told half-way through a course that there child isn’t up to it, or has
committed a series of (carefully selected) indiscretions and has become
“unsuitable”. You have to see a race through to its end and in
general, aim for ‘A’ grades, not ‘C’s! (You might very well
think that private fee paying schools should be providing the former!)
Anyway, what kind of risk assessment would advocate brinkmanship in
results? Aim high!
A school exists for the students, not the teachers,
not the administration. So you have to listen to them.
Educational guru Chris Wright in St Peter’s High School,
Stoke-on-Trent, UK, basically has his school run by the students and his
message is simple; “Give them responsibility and they respond.” That
is when a school truly begins to be a “learning environment”, risks
‘n all.
Akio Morita, aka “Mr Sony” once said, “The
emphasis on people must be genuine and sometimes very bold and daring,
and it can even be quite risky, but no matter how clever or crafty you
are, your future is in the hands of the people.”
Next week: Spencer’s Great Idea
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
What do you do about house guests that keep on arriving from the old country
(the UK)? I’ve had five sets this year and it looks like there are more coming
for Xmas. If I had nothing else to do other than entertain old friends then it
would be fine, but I have work I have to do as well as commitments with charity
organizations that I don’t want to let down. I don’t want to give old
friends the cold shoulder, but I’m at my wits end, honestly! What should I do?
Bed & Breakfast Barbie
Dear B&B Barbie,
You have already answered your own problem, my Petal. Your friends are really
just looking for B&B, so point them at one closest to you, so that they can
come round some evenings for dinner and a chin-wag. Accommodation is so cheap in
Thailand that your friends won’t mind at all. For 500 baht a night they will
have somewhere that’s clean, air-conditioned and secure. That’s about six
pounds a night. Travellers can afford that. Go ahead and welcome them all, but
just book them into a real B&B.
Dear Hillary,
What do you do about your husband drinking too much? He has a drink after work
every day, drinks with dinner and then drinks after dinner at home, or goes down
the pub with his mates. This is surely too much? He is not violent or anything,
but I just worry that he can’t be doing himself much good with all this
drinking. Please don’t suggest I go drinking with him as I do not drink. In
fact I think it’s quite horrid, though I know you like the bubbly!
TT Wife
Dear TT Wife,
If you are so sure he is doing himself a mischief, then why don’t you get him
to go for a check-up? If the doctor says he’s OK, then be guided by that. If
the doctor says he’s not OK, then he has to be guided by that. Wisdom of
Solomon really. I think I’ll have a glass of fizzwater to celebrate!
Dear Hillary,
My girlfriend does drive, but hasn’t got a license, so I have been trying to
teach her to drive properly, but there are many problems. The first is that my
Thai is minimal and her English not much better, so technical terms like “let
the clutch out slowly” are impossible to get across. The second problem is
that my pick-up is very large and she has problems estimating the sheer size of
the vehicle. The third snag is that she seems to have very little of what I’d
call “road sense”. Do you know of any places I could send her to learn to
drive, Hillary?
John
Dear John,
Always a perennial problem. In Thailand most people get their license first and
learn to drive later. How this happens, I am not sure, but just take it as read
that it does! I have never been successful at teaching people to drive, so I
know the problems. There is also an even greater problem in that your insurance
is null and void if you have an accident with an unlicensed driver at the wheel.
It’s all too difficult, Petal. Keep looking for a Thai driving school. There
is always one in most cities. Best of luck!
Dear Hillary,
My husband is a member of an international club here in Thailand and is talking
about having an exchange student stay with us for a couple of months later this
year. When he spoke about this a few months ago I agreed, even though we only
have a two bedroom apartment. Now I find that he is arranging to have a young
woman from America come over for work experience and she is to stay for three
months as well. This is unsettling for me. This is the first time I have lived
overseas, though my husband has been an expatriate most of his life. Is this
normal in this country, or is there something wrong about all this? I don’t
want to be alarmist or appear mean, I’m just not sure of what happens in these
cases. Can you help, Hillary?
Worried
Dear Worried,
What do you want Hillary to do, my Petal? Do you want me to take the exchange
student in, or what? You also don’t mention what you get in exchange. Perhaps
if it’s for an unlimited supply of champagne and chocolates I might even be
interested. You are worrying over nothing. Exchange students are selected as
being good representatives of their own countries, and as the hosts in the host
country, your husband (and you) have also been chosen as being upstanding people
in the community. If you have a teenage daughter, or have friends with one, this
will also make your life easier. You don’t have to ‘mother hen’ the young
woman. They are sent over here to experience our culture, as part of their own
growing up. It is a great idea, and you should be very happy to be involved.
Just stop fretting!
Psychological Perspectives: Ugly smokes and the psychology of persuasion
by Michael Catalanello,
Ph.D.
By now, many have seen the new cigarette
packs bearing graphic images of people with ailments caused by tobacco use.
Since March 25, color photos depicting stained and misshapen teeth,
diseased lungs, breathing tubes, and other gruesome smoking-related
diseases and deformities have been required on all cigarette packs sold in
the Kingdom.
The intent of this move, of course, is to remind smokers
of the cosmetic and health risks of smoking, and presumably discourage some
from engaging in this noxious habit. Psychologists use the term
“persuasion” to characterize messages like these, which are intended to
influence people’s attitudes and behavior. Because persuasion is so
prevalent in contemporary life, we might not always be attuned to its
presence.
One common form of persuasion, the television
commercial, has long been a mainstay of our popular culture, enticing us to
favor one product over its competitors. Advertising billboards clutter our
urban landscapes with words and images intended to persuade onlookers to
adopt the latest fashion or consume the hippest beverage. During election
campaigns, posters bearing the solemn faces of the Thai political elite
sprout like mushrooms after a monsoon rain. E-marketers and scamsters
litter our inboxes with spam, hoping to pique our interest in elaborate
schemes to transfer large sums of money from Nigeria, or convince us that
certain parts of our anatomy are in dire need of artificial enhancement.
You might try to escape the onslaught of persuasion by
retreating to the local beaches. There, too, vendors and hawkers regularly
approach, offering an endless variety of products and services; belts,
hammocks, pendants, watches, lighters, fabrics, or a relaxing seaside
massage and manicure. If you are male, try walking down Pattaya’s Soi Six
to experience a variety of persuasion that is particularly enticing. Even
friends, coworkers, and family members attempt to influence our attitudes
and actions with their respective arsenals of persuasive tactics.
Psychologists have identified at least four major
ingredients of persuasion: the communicator, the message, the medium by
which the message is delivered, and the audience. Researchers have
investigated how each of these ingredients can influence the effectiveness
of messages intended to persuade.
The credibility of the communicator is an important
factor in determining the persuasiveness of a message. Communicators
without apparent selfish motives are generally more believable than those
who stand to benefit from a change in our attitudes or behaviors. Using
Thailand’s anti-smoking campaign as an example, if smokers perceive the
messages as coming from impartial scientists and health experts, they are
more likely to be favorably influenced than if they view it as originating
with opportunistic bureaucrats or corrupt public officials. Also, we are
inclined to be more influenced by those we perceive to be attractive, and
more similar to us.
The content of the message is another important factor.
Here, researchers have investigated whether well-reasoned, logical appeals
are more effective than appeals that target the emotions. The answer seems
to depend upon characteristics of the audience. Those who are highly
educated, analytical, thoughtful, or involved, respond best to more logical
appeals. Less well-educated audiences, and those that are disinterested,
seem more influenced by peripheral cues, such as the appearance or
likeability of the communicator. The cigarette campaign seems to have
chosen an appeal that is primarily emotional, possibly eliciting fear or
disgust.
Will the Thai antismoking campaign be successful? If the existing
research is any indication, it might make a difference for some. In order
to reach more educated and thoughtful individuals, however, these efforts
could be enhanced by programs to educate the public about the serious
health risks inherent in regular exposure to tobacco smoke. To be optimally
successful, educational campaigns would likely do well to rely heavily upon
authoritative communicators with a high degree of integrity and
credibility.
Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his home State of Louisiana, USA, and a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at Asian University,
Chonburi. You may address questions and comments to him at [email protected], or post on his weblog at
http://asianupsych.blogspot.com
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Sound and Vision
By Justin
Trousers
This week’s column carries a public health warning. If you are feeling a
little down and are looking for some light-hearted stories of kittens; then I
am afraid you will have to look elsewhere. Unless you are looking for stories
of blood soaked and dismembered kittens, in which case you should probably seek
help, but you can also continue reading; for our theme this week is mass
slaughter. First we have the Crusades where murder on a massive scale was
carried out in the name of religion. This was followed a thousand years later
by the genocide in Rwanda between groups of people separated more by occupation
than tribe, but who had their identity cards stamped as “Tutsi” or
“Hutu” by their colonial masters. Having been differentiated in such a
clear way gave a definable basis for hatred and the results were more piles of
bodies. Neither serves as a good advertisement for the human race; but they do
serve as a reminder that we are all lucky to be living on the beach in the
Kingdom of Thailand.
Movie
Kingdom of Heaven
Sir
Ridley Scott does epic spectacle very well. From humble beginnings directing
episodes of “Z cars” for the BBC in the 1960s, Scott has given us action
classics such as Bladerunner, Alien, Black Hawk Down and Gladiator. Now he has
turned his attention to the Crusades.
My memories of school are extremely fuzzy, but I recall the
Crusades being portrayed as a jolly adventure in which a band of really nice
religious guys went off to another part of the world to civilise the barbarians
and have a cup of tea. The reality was somewhat different. In 1096, as a
warm-up exercise, the crusaders massacred the Jews of France and Germany.
Finally arriving at the walls of Jerusalem in 1099, the crusaders entered the
city and butchered the forty thousand inhabitants. There then followed a
hundred years of mutual bloodletting between the Muslims and the Christians
before Saladin finally retook Jerusalem in 1187. The impact of the Crusades has
reverberated across the centuries and still haunts the current events in the
Middle East. Not an easy subject for a movie then, and the discussion boards
are already buzzing with comments from those with polarised positions, along
the lines of “your lot killed all those people”, cleverly riposted with
“yeah, but your lot started it.” Scott, with a $160 million budget to
provide entertainment rather than an almost certainly controversial historical
documentary, has chosen the retaking of Jerusalem by Saladin from the crusaders
as the focus for the story, peppered it with some real characters from history,
and added a love story to stop the ladies in the audience from fidgeting too
much while he serves up the mega-battle scenes that he is so good at.
Orlando Bloom takes the lead role as Balian of Ibelin who
defended Jerusalem against Saladin. At the start of the movie, Balian is a
blacksmith in a French village. In a very short time he is a Crusader and an
ace swordsman; and he ends up in Jerusalem, pledged to support the king who is
keen to maintain a truce with Saladin. Unfortunately, the king is in the
terminal stages of leprosy and is soon to die. His leprosy ravaged features
require him to wear a mask, thus disguising the fact that he is played by
Edward Norton. Once the king dies, the belligerent factions hold sway and war
with Saladin is facilitated by wiping out some passing muslims and killing
Saladin’s sister. The main bad guy is Reynald, played by Brendan Gleeson who
seems to have modeled his pink pigtails with extensive beard character on a
deranged version of Billy Connolly. Also making an appearance are Jeremy Irons
and Liam Neeson, with Eva Green as the love interest. Syrian actor Ghassan
Massoud plays Saladin who comes across as chilling but compassionate. Unlike
the butchery of the crusaders who originally took Jerusalem, Saladin killed
nobody once Balain surrendered the city.
I was concerned about the choice of Orlando Bloom as the
main character. He makes a fine elf but does not have the physical presence of
someone like Russell Crowe. But in this role, of a man who finds himself drawn
into the conflict and into the role of defender of Jerusalem through moral
choice rather than the pursuit of power, he delivers a strong performance.
There is enough of a storyline to maintain the interest and
it is all beautifully photographed and directed. Light, dust and men on horses
with flags conspire to provide some National Geographic style images. The
production crew spent almost a year building a full-size replica of the ancient
citadel of Jerusalem in Morocco. It is then comprehensively attacked in one of
the most impressive battle scenes ever captured on film. It is both savage and
beautiful, percussively violent one moment and then slipping into slow motion
with a soft score accompaniment. It’s what Ridley Scott does best and is
something to experience on the big screen; do not wait for the DVD release.
Hollywood has tried and failed to deliver historical epics
over the past couple of years (Troy, Alexander, King Arthur). Ridley Scott has
shown how it should be done. Miss Julie thoroughly enjoyed it too, and we
enjoyed a spirited theological debate on the way home; her stance being that we
should all live together peacefully, or else go away and find somewhere else to
live; or something like that.
If, having seen the movie, you are inspired to learn more
about the Crusades and their impact on the world today, then “Holy War” by
Karen Armstrong is an excellent, unbiased, factual account.
DVD
Hotel Rwanda
Triggered by the murder of the Rwandan president on 6th
April 1994, Rwanda descended into one hundred days of hell as Hutu gangs
systematically killed around one million Tutsis; and anybody else who got in
their way. In response, the international community pulled out their own
citizens, reduced the UN peacekeeping force, and held long discussions as to
the definition of genocide. But then we all said sorry afterwards and pledged
it would never happen again……
In the midst of the bloodshed, a Hutu by the name of Paul
Rusesabagina was the manager of the Mille Collines Hotel in Kigali. In the face
of ever-diminishing support from the UN peacekeepers, and increasing aggression
from the army and the Hutu gangs, he successfully protected hundreds of
civilians inside the hotel. Hotel Rwanda tells his story.
Don Cheadle plays the lead role. At first we see him as the
model manager of the hotel, impeccably dressed and working hard to keep the
hotel machine running smoothly, whilst keeping the local army generals happy
with cigars, alcohol and favours. At night he returns home to his Tutsi wife
and his children in the suburbs; and it is there that we get the first
indication that life is unraveling when his neighbour is attacked. The film is
extremely effective in portraying a society collapsing. Showing normal lives
being replaced by slaughter, even if the movie spares us an excess of
bloodshed, is a harrowing and thought provoking experience.
As the situation deteriorates, Rusesabagina has to cope with
an increasing number of refugees arriving at the hotel. In an attempt to
persuade the aggressors that he is still maintaining a high class
establishment, with paying guests who should be left alone to enjoy their stay
(an almost surreal hypothesis given the mayhem on the streets), he tries to
maintain a resemblance of normality by presenting daily bills to each room and
ensuring that the staff continue to perform their tasks. It’s a portrait of a
decent man trying desperately to protect his own personal family, and the large
extended family that he has inherited. Cheadle is utterly believable in the
role; and mention should also be made of Sophie Okenodo who plays his wife with
a mix of strength, fear and desperation. Nick Nolte is solid as the UN
representative who tries to help with ever-decreasing manpower.
As the story unfolds, Rusesabagina’s increasingly frantic
attempts to avoid the massacre of the hotel occupants make for riveting
viewing; especially as the story is true.
Director Terry George has given us a powerful movie
experience; one which left me feeling uplifted by the decency and humanity of
Rusesabagina; and ashamed that I was, however indirectly, part of the world
community that stood by and did nothing.
A visit to Rwanda.net will tell you more about Paul
Rusesabagina. Sadly it will also provide recent news updates that indicate that
the genocide continues both in Rwanda and elsewhere; albeit on a small enough
scale that it does not warrant a news clip on CNN. Perhaps if Rwanda was viewed
as being “strategically important” (e.g. had more oil), more would be done.
An important, interesting movie.
Next week, more about kittens, a review of Finding
Neverland, and some sentences about music.
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