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Money matters: Focus on Forsyth Partners
Part 2
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
In part 2 this week, we again focus on one of our preferred
satellite fund managers, UK-based Forsyth Partners, via a recent interview with
their managing director, Rossen Djounov.
How much trading goes on in your portfolio?
We’ve owned some funds for up to eight years, and some for
only four months. It really comes down to the skill of the manager and we stay
on top of this. The amount of turnover in the fund is a function of market
opportunity. For the two years prior to the last six months, most strategies
were producing positive returns. However, in the challenging environment of the
last six months, many funds were unable to prove themselves. At the peak we were
invested in 160 hedge fund managers, but over the last six months we have begun
redeeming and we are currently invested in close to 110 managers.
Does such a large group of managers dilute the fund’s
return?
This question assumes that there are a small number of
managers who have superior alpha generation abilities. However, we have found no
evidence that alpha is proprietary to a handful of managers. Alpha is cyclical
and portable and it’s not necessarily the same guys who produced it five years
ago who can produce it today.
What differentiates Forsyth in Asia from other fund of hedge
funds offered to distributors?
Distributors in Asia are increasingly appreciating the need
to look at their alternative investments, particularly in light of recent
scandals. The fact that we are regulated by the UK Financial Services Authority
gives investors confidence in our standards and operational procedures. One of
the distinguishing factors of our fund is that it can be converted into multiple
fully hedged currencies. With the weakness of the US dollar, many people have
been interested in multicurrency structures. The other feature that
differentiates us is that we offer investors an opportunity to earn an income
from their hedge fund investments. Our funds offer two share classes, one an
income option and the other a roll-up option. The income option is particularly
relevant to retirees. Usually they would be forced to liquidate from a fund in
order to receive an income, but we have a distribution share class that aims to
pay a dividend twice a year. This allows the investor to stay in the fund
without liquidating.
What do you think of Asian hedge fund managers? Do you invest
in any?
We do invest in Asian hedge funds. As the industry here is
fairly new, the average quality of the managers is probably superior to the US
and Europe, where the markets are more established. At the moment, it is only
the most skilled managers who have been able to leave their jobs to set up a
fund. However, because the industry is new, the skills involved for hedging in
the market and operating a hedge fund business have not been developed. You see
very few second-generation hedge funds in Asia. This gives the Asian hedge fund
industry a higher embedded risk, but this will change with time.
How do you think hedge funds will perform over the next six
months?
I am quite positive about the next sixth months. The market believes we are
now at the end of the interest rate cycle. So this important negative catalyst
has been eliminated. Also, with the US elections over, this source of
uncertainty has passed and managers can go back to taking a fundamental approach
to the market.
The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be
reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can
accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor
bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions
taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more
information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
Snap Shots: Nueng, song, sam. Here comes the digital fuzzies!
by Harry Flashman
There seems to be a common misconception that digital
photos are always sharp, probably because most are viewed in the tiny LCD
screen at the rear of the camera. However, if you go and take your memory
stick to the photoshop to get ‘real’ prints made, you may be very
disappointed with what you get back. Unsharp, fuzzy photos.
 The
reason is simple. Poor technique. Ant digital that offers something over
three megapixels, should be able to produce sharp prints. It is not the
camera’s fault. It is the photographer’s fault.
To take any photograph, the camera must be held very
still. For us human beings to hold something still needs us to stabilize
our arms, and this is done by bending the elbows and tucking them in close
to the body. The camera in many instances is also actually stabilized by
the forehead, so provided you can stand still (I often lean against a lamp
post or suchlike), the camera is held securely. This is the best case
scenario for cameras where you look through the viewfinder.
However, the new little digitals are a different story.
The fiddly little LCD viewing screen is looked at away from the face, so
the arms are no longer bent with the elbows braced. In fact, take a look
at this week’s photo and you will see that the photographer’s arms are
stretched out. Try standing like that holding an orange at arm’s length.
See how quickly you will get the shakes, trying to hold something
unsupported.
What you have to do is to bend the elbows again, and
try to keep the camera as close as you can to the eye. You should be able
to focus on the screen at a distance of less than 300 mm, (or if you are
older, use your reading glasses)!
I have to also admit that I do not entirely blame the
digital photographer. Even though most have an optical viewfinder as well,
it does not generally show the exact area of coverage. In addition, the
optical finder does not usually look through the lens such as in an SLR
camera, while the LCD image has come through the lens.
Poor camera holding technique is not just seen with
digitals, I have to point out. With today’s Point and Shooters which are
so small that they practically fit in one hand, the tendency is to do just
that - one handed photography! Let me assure you that while one handed
picture taking may look sharp, the end result photograph won’t be.
How many times have you seen a photographer holding the
camera in one hand, raising the fingers on the other hand, as he says,
“ning-song-sam” (or even “one-two-three”)! The answer is many,
many times. And each one of the resulting photographs is not as sharp as
it should be.
The simple fact of the matter is that to get sharp
photographs, the camera must be held still while the shutter is held open.
Now, in most daylight situations if the camera is set on “auto” it
will select a shutter speed of around 1/125th of a second, and while that
sounds “fast” it really isn’t. You will still get noticeable
“softness” in the final print if the hand holding the camera has
allowed any movement.
The secret really is in the grip. And it is a two
handed one. You will not see any professional photographer taking shots
with one hand free. I also recommend that you take a short breath in and
then hold it while gently squeezing off the shutter. Many cameras will
also have two “hand/finger” impressions on either side of the camera
body. They are not there for decoration. Use them!
And for the digital people holding your camera away
from yourself, try looping the camera strap around your neck to tether the
camera just a little more firmly, and as already mentioned, try to keep
the camera as close to your eye as you can.
Modern Medicine: Tics and Tourette’s syndrome - what the “F’s” that?
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
One of my favorite jokes involves a parrot
that was prone to ‘bad’ language, and consistently used the “F” word.
After threatening the talkative bird with dire consequences, its owner put it in
the freezer chest for five minutes. After being retrieved, the parrot was asked
if it would now behave. “Yes,” said the shivering parrot, “I won’t say
the “F” word again, but what did the effing chicken say?”
Tourette’s syndrome can also be related to the magic
“F” word, and is usually seen in children (not parrots) around the age of
5-7 years. Boys outnumber girls three to one!
So is this just a case of little Johnny parroting off (sorry
about that, couldn’t help myself) dirty words he has heard at home? Actually
no. This is a developmental problem that comes under the general heading of
‘Tics’ (as opposed to ‘ticks’ that are parasitic problems).
Tic disorders can affect up to almost 20 percent of children
at some stage of their development. At one end of the spectrum are children with
brief episodes of single tics, whereas at the other are children with chronic
multiple tics, including our friend Tourette’s syndrome.
Tics are abrupt and recurrent involuntary motor or vocal
actions. Motor tics include eye blinking, grimacing, nose twitching, lip
pouting, shoulder shrugging, arm jerking, head jerking, kicking, finger
movements, jaw snapping, tooth clicking, frowning, tensing parts of the body,
and rapid jerking of any part of the body are simple tics. More complex ones
include hopping, clapping, touching, throwing, arranging, gyrating, bending,
biting the mouth, the lip, or the arm, head-banging, picking scabs, writhing
movements, rolling eyes upwards or side-to-side, making funny expressions,
sticking out the tongue, kissing, pinching, writing the same letter or word over
and over, and tearing paper or books.
However the tic can also be vocal, with simple ones being
coughing, spitting, screeching, barking, grunting, gurgling, clacking,
whistling, hissing, sucking sounds, and syllable sounds such as “uh, uh,”
“eee,” and “bu.” The complex vocal tics can involve complete phrases
such as, “Oh boy,” “you know,” “shut up,” “you’re fat,” “all
right,” and “what’s that.” Take that a little further and you get
repetitive bad language (which we medicos call Coprolalia, because we love big
words) and that is the best known example of Tourette’s syndrome.
Children who have these tics can be looked upon as fools by
their peers, and there is a no more predatory group than other children. Parents
also can feel helpless in these situations. Form the medical point of view, one
has to treat the entire family, not just little Johnny with the foul mouth!
Most children with tics can lead normal lives, and the tics
themselves usually slow down in teenage years. Parents should be encouraged to
get support for themselves from various organizations such as the Tourette
Syndrome Association ([email protected]). With a good understanding of tics
and related problems, including acceptance from teachers and education of the
child’s peers, most children with tics do not need regular medical follow up.
Parents and children need to understand that although all
these symptoms relate to an underlying brain disorder, breaking the cycle may be
extremely simple - for example, just allowing the child to have a short “tic
break” in a long school lesson may be enough.
Drug treatment can be used, though there are differences in
opinion on the efficacy, with some researchers claiming only 30 percent can be
helped; however, tic severity and frequency can be reduced. Studies of
risperidone in Tourette’s syndrome have shown that it is efficacious too.
Learn to Live to Learn: Transaction and Transformation
with Andrew Watson
A few weeks ago, I wrote of a global society
characterised by rampant consumerism, increasing division between rich and poor
individuals and nations, and the threat of a ‘clash of civilisations’,
perhaps not diminished hugely by George Bush’s inauguration speech, whose
detractors continue to perceive a refusal to acknowledge a different cultural
concept of government. In the context of this place we inhabit, where
postmodernism merges with capitalism and the chaos and complexity of human
interaction is of a global proportion, I would like to ask, in a global context,
“What kind of leadership is required for International schools in the 21st
century?”
Clockwise
from top left - Jesus Christ, Mandela, Gandhi, Luther King, Pele, Picasso,
Lennon – all transformational heroic leaders – what made them so?
Research generally feels it necessary to delineate between
‘Management’ and ‘Leadership’, whilst recognizing that in order to be an
effective leader, management skills are essential. The role of managing an
International school (or any organisation for that matter) can be regarded as
‘transactional’, i.e. dealing with a series of transactions on a day-to-day
basis. Managing the minutiae, you might say. Leadership can be seen as something
altogether different. Think of the great leaders, the heroes! Here are a few of
my own (apart from my family of course): Jesus Christ, Mandela, Gandhi, Luther
King, Lennon, Pele, Picasso. What is it that made them great leaders? Clearly,
they possessed consummate skills, which dealt with their minutiae apparently
effortlessly, but they had something else besides. They are inspirational
figures, brimming with intelligence, initiative, imagination, integrity,
intuition, compassion and strength of character. They affirm, they celebrate,
they inspire. Their words and deeds make you want to follow them. But here’s
the trick, they know the words, they possess the capacity for the
deeds. And then still, something more. I think maybe it’s something to do with
what Picasso called, “The ability to think like a child”, perchance to
dream? At the other end of the spectrum, it is, as a former Principal of mine
correctly observed, “small people who diminish others”. Leadership is about
‘transformation’, through oratory, vision, initiative and example.
In order to deal effectively with a broad range of interest
groups in International schools, including owners, boards, parents, students and
teachers, I propose that both management and leadership require highly evolved
and efficient knowledge and skills in a number of key areas, and with
leadership, that elusive something extra. First, both require the ability to
listen. Many listen, but do not hear, either through incapacity for language
comprehension (anyone speak Latin nowadays?) or the refusal to acknowledge what
is being said, due to something like, a hidden agenda or preconceived ideas. I
see something similar in Visual Arts, amongst those who either haven’t been
given the gift of vision, or the opportunity to learn how to see, or to understand
what they are seeing. To extend the analogy, it is extraordinary to witness
those who refuse to acknowledge the evidence of their own eyes, or the lessons
of their own teaching. This is resistance to learning by the way, and should be
distinguished from questioning what you are being taught, which I would regard
as a necessary part of 21st century teaching and
learning. Education is filled with presumption, assumption, preconception and
dogma, and I suggest that the task of teachers in general and leaders in
particular, is to dismantle these towers of illusion. Listening to other people
is a real skill, because it must necessarily include questioning your own
position, and being ready to be persuaded of another. On this basis, how many of
us can say we truly listen? How many of us have uttered the words, ‘I make my
mind up straight away’ or ‘I know what I like’ or ‘I know immediately
whether I’m going to like someone (and nothing can change my opinion!)’,
claims which preclude the need to listen or the possibility of understanding, of
enlarging our cognitive capacity. Wilful ignorance, my mum used to call it. But
it takes great courage to consider another’s view, cowardice to hide behind
truth. Extraordinary, the lengths people will go to, in persistently deluding
themselves. I remember Ceaucescu, and many other dictators besides. The worst
kind of delusion is self-delusion and listening is the antidote to delusion.
Courage comes in many forms and is a necessary ingredient in leadership. Courage
is neither taking the easy option, nor escaping something terrible by luck -
it’s a conscious decision to do with making a difference.
Initiative is a tremendous word and something beautiful to
possess. Teachable, I’d say, although I have come across some profound
fossilized resistance to it in my time. I just love to promote the idea that
‘anything is possible’ and that ‘nothing is impossible’. (Having said
that, I’m sure that Hitler thought the same, but that, on the 60th
anniversary of Auschwitz, is another column). Where would the world be without a
positive mental attitude? The enemies of initiative are orthodoxy and dogma.
People entrenched in their views, resistant to change, who view change as a
chore, can never be effective leaders in the 21st century,
because I propose, their education, experience, energy and personal philosophy
must reflect the complexity and chaos of the world they inhabit. Of course, it
is by no means certain, in the ‘Wild West’ of International Schools, (or
‘Brave New World’ if you prefer), that individuals will have reached the
position of Manager or Leader by demonstrating any of the qualities mentioned
hitherto. Some might be the equivalent of gunslingers that have shot down their
rivals, a point tacitly recognised by George Walker, Director General of the
IBO, when writing about the relationships between boards and heads; “I fear
that most heads who have been deputies arrive at their first board meeting with
no relevant experience at all”. (Walker, 2004) Attempts to ‘teach’
transformational leadership have proved more difficult than teaching
transactional management, although there are professional bodies in the UK and
US (such as the UK National Education Assessment Centre (NEAC) which aim to do
just that.
Letters, please, to sirwatson @hotmail.com
Next week: Leadership for our time
 Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
I don’t know if this topic has been discussed before but I’m curious to know
if all foreigners marry bar girls? I was told this is true according to other
ex-pats and Thais. “This is especially true if there is a big age difference
who smokes, drinks, tattooed and ill mannered,” as one ex-pat puts it. Is this
true or are they blowing off hot air?
GH from UK
Dear GH from UK,
No, all foreigners do not marry bar girls, but as your expat source of
information put it so succinctly, older foreigners who do come under the heading
of “who smokes, drinks, tattooed and ill mannered” do marry bar girls. The
answer is fairly obvious. Who else wants these sorts of people? Who else would
put up with them? Only the bar girls - and it’s at a price, Petal. At a price!
Then these men have the brass neck to write to Ms. Hillary and complain. And
before I get a rash of complaints, not all older men who smoke, drink and have
tattoos are exactly as described above. The important adjective is the “ill
mannered” aspect. Those are the people will write in and complain, won’t you
all, my ill mannered Petals?
Dear Hillary,
I would like to react on last week letter (22nd of January) mailed to you by
Mighty Mouse. For me it is unbelievable that Mighty Mouse is complaining that
much. If Mighty Mouse is not happy with the situation he mentioned I would like
to advice him to stay away from Partya (sic). My suggestion is to move
for Pyongyang so he will be sure he can walk one straight line to his goals
(besides a few military check points). People move to Partya (sic) for a
living or a vacation for some reason. Some people start complaining or doing
this all the time. Stop complaining and concentrate for more important things in
life. It will make you live longer.
Gert from the Netherlands
Dear Gert from the Netherlands,
Thank you for your letter and trying so hard with the English language (it is
difficult tongue to manage, but you should have been able to spell Pattaya,
Petal). The little Mighty Mouse was not really being very serious, and I think
he wrote his letter after a wine and cheese party, overindulging as little mice
will do when the cat’s away! However, I agree with you that everyone (and not
just Mighty Mouse) should stop complaining about their lot in life. There are
more important (and happier) things in life (especially when all choclatey and
washed down with champagne!). (Thank you again, my wonderful Man Looking for an
Honest Car Dealer, who left Hillary some Guylian chocs and a very nice bottle of
bubbly.)
Dear Hillary,
Thanks to your regular promotion of chocolates and champagne as being on every
girl’s wish list, I am currently fitting out a shop in preparation for selling
a great variety of the world’s best chocolates together with a vast selection
of French champagne.
My chocolates are hand made and comprise of dark and milk chocolate, some filled
with familiar tastes such as caramel and marzipan, and others with all natural
cordial cherries imported from Belgium. Other ingredients include sweet, creamy,
fresh butter, delicious whipping cream, pure cane sugar, fresh roasted nuts,
pure flavourings and the freshest fruit purees.
My champagne stock includes Kraemer Brut Cuvee Close, Grande Annee which is aged
for a minimum of five years, Bollinger and, of course, Dom Perignon 1985
vintage.
Forget diamonds and pearls, no girl can resist these treats and she will be
putty in any man’s hands should he buy them for her. Perhaps your luck will
change Hillary, and you will become putty in Mistersingha’s hands.
Minnie Mouse
Dear Minnie Mouse,
It would need a crate of Vintage French champagne to turn Ms. Hillary into putty
in that wretched Mistersingha’s hands. A bottle of Bolly from Mistersingha? A
20 year old bottle of Dom? You’ve got to be joking, Petal. He can’t even
come across with his promised bottle of Babycham, not even 20 days old!
However, I do agree that your choccy and champers shop sounds absolutely divine.
Tell me where it is, and I’ll spend many hours window shopping. Send me a free
trial sample and I’ll even let you apply my personal crest above the entrance,
with “By Appointment to Ms. Hillary, the Queen of Chocolates and Champagne.”
Oh! I can taste the fizzy bubbles already, my Petal. Don’t let me down, like
that dreadful Mistersingha person!
By the way, have you thought of doing a champagne and cheese night with your
friend Mighty Mouse? Could be an interesting evening.
Dear Hillary,
Bumped into Peasmold Gruntfuttock the other night in the Ganderpoke Bar. There
he was, with tethered nadgers and dinglingiron complaisant, bemoaning the lack
of Biggles impersonators in town. “Try Hillary,” said Rambling Syd Rumpo,
pulling up a bollard. “Loomers on her posset and the best ‘Chocs away!’ in
the business!”
Mistersingha
Dear Mistersingha,
You are starting to worry me. Are you hearing the voices again? Do you feel you
have been specially selected from on high to carry out a mission for mankind?
Start taking the tablets again, Petal. You really need them this time.
Psychological Perspectives: Global warming and the psychology of the commons
by Michael Catalanello,
Ph.D.
As representatives of many nations met at
the World Economic Forum in Switzerland last week, global issues like
climate change, HIV/AIDS, poverty, and the war on terrorism were once again
in the news.
One of the most threatening and intractable problems
discussed at the meeting was that of global warming. Carbon and other
greenhouse gas emissions, byproducts of human activities since the
industrial revolution, have long been implicated in adversely affecting the
Earth’s climate. Scientists generally view this warming process with
alarm, due to its predicted effects upon changing seasons, shifting ranges
of plants and animals, changing global weather patterns, reduced
agricultural yields, melting polar ice sheets, rising sea levels and
worldwide coastal flooding.
The timeline for finding a solution to this problem is
frighteningly short: ten to twenty years by most estimates. Nevertheless,
despite limitations on greenhouse gas emissions prescribed by the 1997
Kyoto Protocol, developed countries have yet to curb these damaging
emissions. In fact, many nations have actually increased emissions, some by
as much as 17 percent over 2000 levels.
Thinking about such global problems and their potential
for wreaking irreversible havoc upon our planet and quality of life can be
an unsettling experience. Although stories about these problems do
regularly make headlines, it appears as if efforts to address them in an
effective way have, to date been insufficient. As a psychologist, I
naturally wonder what, if anything, my profession might have to offer by
way of contributing toward solutions to such problems. Might the science of
human behavior and mental processes have a contribution to make to saving
our planet?
It may be that we humans are too shortsighted to view a
problem that may occur 20 or so years down the road, as one that we need to
address today with urgency and sacrifice. After all, prosperous developed
nations that attempts to limit or cut back on greenhouse emissions must be
willing to face the prospect of reduced profitability, and limited economic
growth as a result. Perhaps the psychology of profiting at the expense of
the ecological health of our planet needs to be critically examined, and
replaced by a more globally responsible alternative mindset.
Such a mindset is offered in the form of an analogy by
Garrett Hardin in his 1968 article entitled, “The Tragedy of the
Commons.” A commons in medieval Britain consisted of pastureland that was
shared in common by a number of the herdsmen of a village. The benefit to a
given herder to add a sheep to his herd can be represented by +1. The cost
of the additional sheep which grazes on the commons, is represented by
–1. This cost, however, is shared equally by the all of the herdsmen. The
cost to the individual herdsman who adds the sheep, therefore, is some
small fraction of –1. This cost/benefit analysis reveals the economic
incentive for each herdsman to continue adding sheep to his herd.
Eventually, of course, we reach a point where the land has become so
overgrazed that it is useless to all.
This analogy points out the failure on the part of each
herdsman to identify his individual interests with the interests of his
fellow herders. In his 2002 book, High Noon, World Bank Vice
President J.F. Rischard identifies the global commons as our globally
shared resources, such as the air, oceans, water, atmosphere, and forests.
According to this view, it is in the interest of each member of the world
community to submit individual needs to the collective needs of the global
commons. The planet is, therefore, managed as a community resource.
Is it possible to change the mindset of individual
nations of the world to identify their respective national interests with
the interests of the global community? Considering the urgency of the
situation, is there sufficient time for this change in mindset to take
place before it is too late? The ecological health of our planet, our very
survival may depend on it.
Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his home
State of Louisiana, USA. He is a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at
Asian University, Chonburi. Address questions and comments to him at [email protected]
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