COLUMNS
HEADLINES [click on headline to view story]:

Money matters

Snap Shots

Modern Medicine

Heart to Heart with Hillary

PC Blues - News and Views

Personal Directions

Psychological Perspectives

Money matters: Scott Campbell’s views on Thailand cont.

(written at the start of May 2004)

Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.

Continuing our mini-series on the views imparted by Scott Campbell, the portfolio manager whose ‘Growth Fund’ has been judged by S&P to be the best in its sector for the last 6 years, during his first ever visit to Bangkok, last month we turn our attention, once again, to property.

I have been recommending an underweight position to global commercial property for some time now and recent research has led to a further reduce recommendation and sale within our portfolios. There are two major reasons for this strategy.

The first is the recent and imminent further rise in global interest rates. Like bonds and equities, rising interest rates off 45-year lows is not bullish for the asset class. Commercial property is essentially valued on a yield basis and as Government bonds rise, so too do the expected yield on property investments. By way of example, an office building with rental income of US$1,000,000 is currently priced at 8% capitalisation to give a valuation of US$12,500,000. If the expected rate of return rises with bond yields to say 10%, then the capitalisation of the building falls to US$10,000,000 or a fall of 20%. Of course, leveraged commercial property investment vehicles will fall even further with a 50% gearing example in the example above causing a fall of 32%. A blow out in interest rates to 12% means a fall to US$8,333,000 or 33% un-geared. Valuations by directors and independents of commercial property funds are using historically low capitalisation rates and this is the time to start reducing rather than increasing exposure. The income yield will be swamped by the fall in capital value.

The second reason is the behaviour of listed property funds in recent times. My experience of listed commercial property trusts is that they tend to lead property unit trusts or other collective vehicles with physical property assets at director valuations by 6 months. The market tends to discount the expected moves in interest rates in advance in much the same way as they do earnings of industrial and financial companies. The Real Estate Investment Trust Index (REITs) in New York price 200 day moving average has been broken in April.

The decisive breakout in April on interest rate concerns is a lead indicator for physical commercial property assets and funds. This index is obviously US focused but the same concerns and price action is happening in the entire developed world. Rising interest rates in the Western world are not indicative of a time to be overexposed to commercial property there regardless of location, location, location?

Residential Property - Bubble?

Led by articles in the FT last weekend and various features in the Economist over the past 18 months, is the housing bubble. Since 1956 UK house prices have risen, in real terms, at a trend rate of 2.1%pa. This has made housing an excellent investment but prices have gone through huge cycles. At their peak in 1973, prices were 43% above trend and in the 1988 peak they were 36% above trend. At the end of last year they were 37% above it. Tony Dye, of past fame for losing his job at Phillips and Drew for calling the Tech bubble in 1999, says UK house prices could fall by 30% over the next five years to bring prices back to trend. The usual argument of “affordability” dynamics have changed does not wash according to a study by Andrew Farlow of Oxford University. In Sydney the problem is even worse and Reuters noted in the weekend that properties have doubled in the past six years and now only offer yields of 2.5% and it now takes in excess of 30% of family income to service the debt. All this at 45 year low interest rates and expectations are that rates will only increase over the next 30 year life of the mortgage. The Western world housing market is definitely in a bubble, you only need to ask Japanese, Hong Kong, and most Emerging Market property investors about their yields, debt servicing and large falls in capital value over the past few years.

The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please contact Graham Macdonald on graham@mbmg-international .com


Snap Shots: How give black and white some sparkle

by Harry Flashman

The first commercially available film was black and white, and the older readers will remember those days. It is in fact only relatively recently that colour became the norm for amateur photography.

After you got your snaps back in bright colour, nobody wanted to shoot in black and white (B&W) anymore, other than a hard core band of photographers who could appreciate the stark contrasts that B&W could give, without the distractions produced by colour. Anyone who has seen Ansel Adam’s prints will attest to that.

Having had a query sent to me recently about shooting in B&W, I dug deep in the archives. Pauline, this is for you! And anyone else who would like to experiment.

However, like all things that seem easy, there can be traps for the unwary. The concept hinges on a condition called ‘reflectance’, which determines the degree of ‘grey’ depicted in a black and white print. Imagine a red boat against a blue background. If both have the same degree of reflectance, then the B&W film will produce two very similar shades of grey. In colour, you have a vivid contrast, but in B&W you have a grey boat against a grey background. No contrast at all.

The answer to this lies upon being able to alter the relative reflectances of the different colours in the scene. If you could make the red stand out more, as far as the film in the camera was concerned, then you would get a different shade of grey between the boat and the background. Fortunately, this is not all that difficult.

The trick requires filters. Not the crossed star, soft focus or centre spot type filters, but coloured filters, with the usual ones being red, yellow and green. What these coloured filters do is to let the light reflected from its own colour to pass freely through the filter, but other colours are ‘held back’ to various degrees. In this way, for example, using the red filter, the light from the red boat passes through more easily, while the blue background is held back. The final effect is a light grey boat against a dark grey background.

Even more simply, the more light that gets through, the lighter the shade of grey. Use of a green filter when taking a landscape also produces a stronger variation of the greys resulting from the different green shades. To increase the effect even further, add a polarizer to the coloured filter and you will really get some contrasting shades in the final B&W print.

The next step is difficult to predict because many factors that may alter the reflectance, but prior experimentation will take away some of the guesswork. As in all things, practice makes perfect.

Now while so far it sounds as if all you have to do is to screw on a couple of coloured filters and you become the 21st century’s answer to Ansel Adams, there is another factor to consider. All these coloured filters require an increase in exposure times to get enough light on to the film emulsion. A deep red could require 2 times the usual exposure (called 2 ‘stops’), denoted by a 4X. At this stage just believe me that you halve the “X” factor to get the number of stops!

The upshot of all this is that you can end up with a shutter speed of around 1/8th of a second or even slower, particularly if you are shooting with a tiny aperture of say f22 to get good depth of field. This is far too slow to hand hold the camera. The fix? It’s called a tripod. Ansel Adams used one, and so should you if you want those pin sharp black and white images worthy of archiving.

So that’s the story of B&W. Use ‘contrast’ coloured filters, use a tripod and get great B&W prints. Remember that you can get B&W films now that can be processed in C41 colour chemistry, so you can get your pictures done at your favourite photo processing outlet.


Modern Medicine: Syndrome X. A new “X”treme sport?

by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant

No, not an “X”treme sport, but rather far from it. Unfortunately Syndrome X, which is otherwise known as the Metabolic Syndrome, is a classic example of what we medico’s call ‘co-morbidity’. This is the situation where one disease process or ailment affects, or “X”aggerates, another disease process you may have. In these situations, the combined effects can be life threatening. It is also a syndrome possessed by around 40 percent of adults over 40.

Now there can be many occasions when you have more than one ailment at one time. You can have a sore throat and a broken leg all at the same time, and these conditions have no real bearing on each other. The broken leg will get better and the sore throat ditto.

However, the combination of diabetes and obesity can be disaster waiting. The combination of diabetes, smoking, obesity, hypertension and high triglycerides (blood fats) is cardiac dynamite. Your conclusive heart attack is a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’. The risk factors stemming from all those conditions become not a case of simple addition, but are multiplied.

The problem from your point of view is that most of these factors come on very slowly, and become part of your daily living. You’ve smoked for years and never had a smoker’s cough, so why stop now? Every time you get some trousers made the waistband has to be that little larger. Your belt has been let out two more holes over the past two years. Your doctor said you had a “Little bit of blood pressure” three years ago, but you haven’t been back to check, as you feel quite OK in yourself. Your ‘triglycerides’? “My what?” Your blood sugar? “It was OK last time it was checked five years ago!”

The big problem is that the “Little bit of blood pressure”, even say 150/100, can produce a very dangerous situation when the person with that BP has elevated blood sugar as well. Or smokes. It is the multiplication effect again. Whereas you can (almost) ignore mild elevations like 150/100, if you have nothing else wrong, ignoring it when there are other conditions co-existing brings up that co-morbidity problem again. And the likelihood of a cardiac calamity.

Likewise, a “little bit of extra weight” that we all excuse ourselves for carrying, may (just ‘may’) be fine for someone with no other medical conditions, but represents an enormous risk factor for someone with the Metabolic Syndrome.

For those who like figures with their information, here are some chilling ones. Between 87-100 percent of people with fatal coronary heart disease, or a non-fatal heart attack had at least one of the following risk factors - smoking, diabetes, increased blood fats and high blood pressure. Syndrome X, or the Metabolic Syndrome, is characterized by having Diabetes, increased blood pressure, and raised blood fats. Can you now see the importance of doing something about weight, blood fats and blood pressure? I for one would not like to be sitting with a condition that gives me between 87-100 percent chance of a cardiac problem.

So what is this week’s message? Quite simply, if you have diabetes, do something about the other risk factors. Stop smoking to start with and then get your BP and blood fats checked. If you don’t even know what your blood sugar level is, then get a check-up and find about all of it!

In the meantime, take 100 mgm of aspirin each morning. It is cardio-protective. I do!


Heart to Heart with Hillary

Dear Hillary,
We have been here for six months and I suppose we are considered very well off. I have a problem though, and I don’t know if it is related to the fact that we have money. I have an increasing attraction for our new young maid. She is very beautiful and charming and appears to be interested in me too. We have not spoken about this, but I will hold her hand when we are in the street and she does not pull away. I know my husband would not approve of this so I have not said anything to him either. Should I tell him? Should I tell her? I am unsure of what to do.
Angela
Dear Angela,
You are certainly new here, aren’t you, Petal. Holding hands with another woman is perfectly normal and acceptable behaviour here in Thailand. It does not indicate a romantic relationship beyond a simple friendship, and certainly not the one you are implying. What you should do is sit down and think about why you are looking to have any sort of an ‘affair’. Has the relationship with your husband lost its sparkle? Start holding his hand, instead of the maid’s.
Dear Hillary,
Discovered Rambling Sid Rumpo the other day in an anatomy classroom. He was, as usual, nadgering his artefacts but took time off to write a quick verse in the cunning old Celtic tradition.
“Whilst thinking of Hillary
I burst a capillary,
Is she a butterfly,
Like a fritillary?”
Mistersingha
Dear Mistersingha,
You are the one starting to ramble, my reneging Petal. And even if like Rambling Sid, your nurglers are irritated and you have numutization of your third sensory strunod (thank you Neddy Seagoon, 1952) you also have no concept of rhythm and rhyme. Allow me to pen a couple of lines myself.

“Mistersingha, you’re a pain,
You’re reneging again,
You promised some goodies,
Some chocolate foodies
And Miss Hillary’s bottled champagne.”
When I receive the promised gifts I will take you off my black list (the immigration police are not the only ones with such lists!)

Dear Hillary,
My aunt came to Thailand last month for a visit. I was excited, as I had not seen her or my uncle for some years. Imagine how I felt when my aunt arrived without my uncle, but she had a man from Bangkok in tow. She said my uncle did not feel like travelling at his age (in his eighties but my aunt is much younger) but she didn’t want to disappoint me by not coming. She didn’t say anything about the ‘boy’ she was with, but I know they stayed in the same hotel room, but I didn’t ask about the sleeping arrangements. (I only have a very small studio so they couldn’t stay with me.) She did not explain anything, but didn’t hide anything either. Honestly, Hillary, should I tell my uncle or should I tell my aunt she is not welcome here again? I am so confused. Please help.
Confused of Chonburi.
Dear Confused,
What exactly are you confused about, Petal? That your aunt should have a rent-a-boy in tow? That your uncle didn’t come? Do you really know the whole story? After all, as you say, you didn’t ask and I’m sure you also didn’t ask what was the relationship between your aunt and your uncle. For all you know, they could be the leaders of the local swingers group, or into ‘open marriage’. The problem is just the fact that you did not find out what really was the situation. My advice would be to live and let live. Your aunt would not have been so open if she was hiding anything. From your point of view I would not say anything unless your uncle asks. After that, the truth is always best, but I think the arrangement was probably one that your aunt and uncle were OK with, and so should you.
Dear Hillary,
I used to be very friendly with a girl in a local cafe and often used to just pop in for a coffee and to say hello, as her English was not very good. About three months ago she disappeared and the new waitress could not tell me where she had gone. I bumped into her in a shopping centre the other day and her English was much better, so I decided to ask her out for dinner. She told me she couldn’t go as she was working in a bar, but I could see her there. I was just so disappointed. How could a sweet young girl from a restaurant turn into yet another bar girl? I still like her a lot. Should I try to get her to leave?
Marty.
Dear Marty,
In a word, No! There’s an old saying - You can take a girl out of a bar but you can’t take the bar out of the girl! If that’s what your sweet young thing wants to do, you have to accept it. She has her reasons for working there, and they are probably financial. You do not need to start a relationship based on financial need and your presumed ability to supply the cash to cover that need. Beware, young Marty. Beware!


PC Blues - News and Views: Good news and Bad news

As the joke has it, which do you want first?

Micro$oft will enforce ‘Sender IDs’

This is good news, and may be a major step in the war against spam. Microsoft has said it will begin enforcing this policy on October 1st. Users of Hotmail, MSN and Microsoft.com will be affected (will benefit?).

This policy depends on something called Sender Policy Framework (SPF). Originators of emails, such as e-mail providers and Internet service providers (ISPs) [not the common user such as you or I], will need to publish SPF records for their internet domains. Receivers of emails can check the source of the emails against the SPF, and accept or reject the email accordingly. If the email source does not match the SPF record, it can be rejected out of hand. If there is no SPF, the matter becomes more tricky. Microsoft has said it will inspect such emails more closely.

Sender ID could provide a way to close loopholes in the current system for sending and receiving e-mail that allow senders to masquerade, or “spoof,” their message’s origin. This would eliminate the spate of ‘returned’ emails such as those we received last time I reported.

Naturally, if Sender IDs are adopted world-wide, recipient email servers can drop all messages without a Sender IDs as well as those where the Sender IDs don’t match. Spam will be severely constrained under these circumstances.

In my view, this is a good policy, and we should be grateful for the Evil Empire for throwing its weight behind it.

What must you do? Badger your ISP or email service provider to adopt SPF, to publish SPF records, and to filter incoming mail accordingly. My source says that ‘tens of thousands of SPF records have already been published’, but there must be billions to go: just how many domain names are there in the world? And how many with email addresses? I shall award a small prize to the closest answer by the end of next week [probably a tin of spam].

Bad news: XP2 service pack

I reported recently that the forthcoming service pack (upgrade) to XP2 was now delayed until August. Further news has come my way to the effect that it doesn’t work very well.

Micro$oft releases ‘release candidates’ of its software for people to try out, and report errors or difficulties. The service pack release candidate 2 has been tried out by the CRN Test Center. On three out of five machines, the systems crashed, and the Test Centre could not recover Windows.

They had to go back to Micro$oft and ask what to do. The company told them how to get out of the problem, and uninstall the service pack, but didn’t comment on the reason(s) for the crash. By the way, the instructions fall into the category of “don’t try this at home, folks”.

Having undone the installation, they found that all the device drivers had been uninstalled. The system was able to recover all but one: the Matrox graphics card. The folder for this had vanished, and had to be recovered from the Matrox web site.

They then found that the previous service pack (SP1) had also been removed from the system.

I have seen commentary on the internet: some people, including companies, have said they successfully upgraded their systems using this release candidate. Now private individuals may care to try such things out: that is what release candidates are for - Micro$oft welcomes their feedback. For companies to risk their survival on such things is ignorance bordering on insanity.

As a general warning, many third party software utilities may no longer work under SP2. There again, some of these utilities will no longer be required: that is the purpose of the service release.


Personal Directions: Inspiring you - now you’re the coach!

by Christina Dodd

Many people ask me: “Just what is coaching all about? … and how can I use it in my daily life?” I take time to explain that coaching professionally takes training, mentoring and experience, but we can all be coaches within our own lives or with people we work with. Now it is your chance to take some of these coaching skills and improve results for yourself, your family, or your company.

Seek opportunities: coaching isn’t appropriate in every situation, but you would be amazed how many times it can be used - so keep your mind and your eyes open for opportunities to use your coaching skills in daily life - the next time you have a problem you can’t see a solution for, or someone knocks on your door and says “How do I do this?”, or you want to delegate a piece of work.

An effective way is to STOP: to gain perspective, sometimes what we need is to:

Step back - get away from the heat of the situation and give those involved room to view the situation from new angles

Think - remove the emotion and think through what is happening, what the options are, what needs to happen, what resources are available

Organise your thoughts - consolidate your thoughts into an action plan, with measurable steps and review points, if appropriate

Proceed - implement the action plan, review and learn

This simple technique can diffuse customer or employee disputes (or even those with your spouse!) and ensure any actions you take are more calm, calculated and less emotional. This increases the chances they will be the right actions!

Believe in others: not everyone necessarily has the skills, aptitude or drive to be chief executive, or employee of the month, or sales person of the year, but most people have the ability to perform at above the level they might believe, or that we might believe ourselves, on first glance. How could you raise your own game? What more could your team achieve with the right support, encouragement, training and resources?

For this to really work, we all have to work hard to turn off that little nagging gremlin that sits on our shoulder, telling us we’re no good, it will all go wrong, or we’re all doomed! Too often we listen to that voice about ourselves, but we also believe it readily about others. Turning down the volume on that voice and finding belief in ourselves and others helps us all to play a bigger game.

Shut up and listen: a good coach never hears those words (or never admits to it!). When was the last time you honestly properly listened to others around you or even to yourself? Over the next two weeks play with being much more attentive as a listener. Focus on what the other person is saying, what they are communicating, rather than worrying about what you are going to say next. Reflect back what they have said - the emotion, not just the words - to show you have taken in what they have said to you. (NB This is VERY powerful when talking to sales prospects or customers!).

Early in a coach’s training, they will often learn that the word ‘listen’ is an anagram of the word ‘silent’. Not meaningful in itself, but a useful reminder that it is easier to listen when we have shut up ourselves! Let your staff talk you through their issues, and their ideas for solutions, before you jump in and tell them what to do. You may be surprised by what they come up with - and perhaps next time they won’t have to trouble you!

Check in with others: whether you are pushing yourself to higher performance, or encouraging those around you, providing accountability is a useful coaching skill. This could be as simple as putting an appointment in a diary to review your progress and reward success, or it could be a performance plan with a member of staff as part of an HR structure.

For accountability to be truly effective, you will need to have made specific, measurable commitments against which progress can be assessed. “I’m going to try and use coaching skills next week” is a bit woolly, but “I will find five opportunities to use my new-found coaching skills with direct reports in the next week” allows easier measurement of progress. And if you are providing accountability to others, be sure to remember the last three points - perspective, belief in potential and listening. It would be a shame to show good coaching by having accountability and then to blow it by talking over your staff and harassing them for underperformance.

What questions can you ask? When these coaching opportunities arise, be aware of your language as you ask questions and listen to the responses. Try starting the majority of your questions with the word “what”, and see the type of response you get. And whenever you ask people to list factors, solutions, opportunities, resources or ideas, don’t let them finish until you’ve asked “What else?” at least twice!

As a “bonus” coaching skill, combine the “what” question with listening, and allow silence after your questions. Just because someone has stopped talking doesn’t mean they have stopped thinking, so don’t rush to interrupt those thoughts with another question. (Hint, more than 30 minutes silence can unnerve most people and may be too long!). It is interesting how many ideas emerge, and of what great quality those ideas can be, if you allow some silence for someone to formulate them.

Time for you to do something! In your diary, or in the margin to the left of this section, jot down the ways that you can start using coaching skills in your daily life in the next seven days. What can you do to create opportunities? What situations can you see where perspective would be beneficial? What might others achieve if you have faith in them (or yourself)? What might you hear if you truly listen to others? What impact might it have on those you listen to?

And, of course,
What else?!

Why not book a coaching session to see where you can start? At Asia Training Associates / Lifecoach-asia we have experienced, trained and certified coaches who can pilot you through stormy and uncertain times. Our coaches will listen to you, act as a sounding-board and give you personal, solid, proven and innovative feedback and suggestions as to how you can move your life, your business, our society and even our world forward.

For more details about our life coaching services, personal and professional skills development programs, please email me directly at [email protected] or visit our website www.asiatrainingassociates.com

Until next time, have a fabulous week and take one step closer to reaching your goals!


Psychological Perspectives:  Gender inequality and HIV transmission

by Michael Catalanello, Ph.D.

Unprotected sexual intercourse is the most common means of transmission of HIV. Condoms used properly can be an effective HIV prevention method. Reproductive health and HIV prevention programs for young people typically address facts like theses.

Sexual abstinence and delaying sexual activity until marriage is sometimes promoted as an AIDS prevention strategy for young people. Although it is a well known fact that large numbers of young people do become sexually active, abstinence and delaying sexual activity by some young people is not unheard of. We might assume that young people who choose to abstain from sex and those who use condoms are out of danger of sexually contracting HIV.

We would be wrong.

Another strategy suggested for avoiding sexual transmission of HIV is monogamy. If sexual partners who are both HIV negative are mutually faithful, it is unnecessary for them to use a condom during sex. We would assume that married people and those confidently in committed relationships are out of danger of sexually contracting HIV.

Again, we would be wrong.

We normally assume that young people who become sexually active are doing so by choice, and those engaging in unprotected sex are doing so freely and with full knowledge of the risks they are taking.

Wrong again.

The reason we would be wrong to come to these conclusions has to do with an understanding of the phenomenon known as sexual coercion.

Contemporary discussions of the issue use the phrase, “sexual coercion” or “nonconsensual sex” instead of the more traditional term, “rape.” For many, the term “rape” conjures up images of a certain type of sexual coercion, perhaps a violent physical and sexual attack by a male stranger, upon a weaker, usually female individual. Sexual coercion, however, includes a broader range of behaviors we might not immediately consider under the category of rape.

A recent publication by YouthNet identifies the following experiences as examples of sexual coercion: “…attempted rape, forced penetrative sex (vaginal, oral, or anal), trafficking, and forced prostitution. It also includes sex obtained as a result of physical force, intimidation, pressure, blackmail, deception, forced alcohol and drug use, and threats of abandonment or withholding economic support. Transactional sex through money, gifts, or other economic incentives (especially in the context of extreme poverty) often has a coercive aspect as well.

Thought of in this way, sexual coercion would seem to be a more commonly occurring phenomenon, one that puts many young people at risk, not only of psychological trauma, but also of HIV infection.

Although men and boys are not exempt from sexual coercion, women are particularly at risk, due in part to what is known as gender inequality.

Gender inequality refers to the fact that we have different expectations about the behavior of men and women. Some differential expectations might be considered as interesting and fairly innocuous elements of our culture. For example, many societies retain the expectation that a man should offer a woman his seat on a crowded bus. Other instances of gender inequality may be more pernicious.

Controlling behavior, for example, is commonly considered a masculine trait, and undesirable in a woman. How does this attitude affect a woman’s ability to exercise control over her reproductive health? Do females exercise the same degree of control over their sexual activities as do males?

Does a married woman who suspects unfaithfulness on the part of her husband have the awareness and confidence to insist that he use a condom with her? Can she refuse sex at will? What if she has children and is economically dependent upon the man?

Experts recommend that reproductive health and HIV prevention programs include educational elements to address the influence of gender inequality, among other important issues related to sexual coercion. Mental health professionals who work with victims of sexual coercion need to develop sensitivity to issues of nonconsensual sex and gender inequality.

Dr. Catalanello is licensed as a psychologist in his home State of Louisiana, USA. He is a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at Asian University in Jomtien. Address questions or comments to [email protected]