|
Money matters: Storm Watch Update Part 1
Based on a an article by Jim Puplava March 2004
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
If you asked the financial experts why gold prices are up,
you will get different answers. To most on Wall Street the rise in the price of
gold is an anomaly, a nuisance, but nothing that should be taken seriously by
investors.
Gold’s rise in price in 2001 was attributed to the events
surrounding 9-11. The rise in price in 2002 was the result of the bear market
in stocks. In 2003 gold’s gains were the result of the Iraq War, then it
became the dollar’s fall.
There are always temporary explanations given for gold’s
spectacular rise, but very seldom are the words “bull market” used to
describe its parabolic rise. After all, what else would you use to describe a
450% advance in the Amex Gold Bug’s Index (HUI) the last three years? The HUI
has been as high as 256.84 before the latest pullback.
The price of the actual metal itself has moved from a low of
$255 in April of 2001 to today’s close of $417.60. The rise in precious
metals has been across the board. The price of silver bullion has moved from a
low of $4.06 to today’s close of $7.628. Platinum prices as well as palladium
are soaring again as well.
The rise in the price of precious metals has also been
duplicated by price increases in other commodities. It doesn’t matter whether
you are looking at oil, natural gas, copper, lead, zinc, corn, wheat, soybeans,
or cotton. They have all risen in price, some more than others, and some in
spectacular fashion.
The plain fact is that the commodities sector is in a new
bull market and the precious metals are in a new super bull market. Price
increases of 400-1000% are a bull market and not mere happenstance as some on
Wall Street would have you believe. Like all new bull markets in their
formative stage it has very few believers, Wall Street being one of them. Talk
to industry executives and very few can see beyond present prices.
The industry has been in the doldrums for so long it is hard
for many executives to see gold or silver prices beyond where they are today.
The lack of belief also applies to the gold newsletter industry where most
writers have been bearish, cautious, or hesitant with doubts whether present
prices can hold. This weekend’s edition of Barron’s featured an interview
with the dean of Dow Theory, Richard Russell. The seasoned sage of the
financial markets sees a big ugly bear market for stocks in the future. To
quote Russell, “I’m afraid we are coming into one of the worst bear markets
in history.”
Russell advises his subscribers to hold cash, gold and gold
stocks. Gold at $400 an ounce is “as cheap as dirt.” Russell sees gold
prices above $1,000 an ounce. Today on cable TV one financial anchor’s
response to the Barron’s Russell interview was that Russell likes gold, but
“he’s getting on in age.”
The wall of disbelief is still pervasive on Wall Street and
within the industry. Yet, despite the wall of worry, the metals have been
relentless in their climb, first gold and now silver.
This new super bull market has barely begun and at some
point this year, we will begin to see the price of gold rise in all currencies
around the globe. By yearend the prices of gold and silver will be far higher
than where they are today. The race to own real money is just beginning and
this super bull market has a long, long, long way to go. For those who want to
know why gold prices are heading higher (besides the mindless spin coming from
anchors and analysts), I have listed 7 fundamental reasons why gold and silver
are heading higher.
Gold & Silver
Fundamentals
1) Producer Hedge Book Reductions and the Decline in Central
Bank Gold Sales
For years the price of gold was kept suppressed throughout
the 1990s by large central bank sales. As prices were kept suppressed, many
mining companies sold their forward production. The combination of central bank
sales with producer hedge books brought additional supplies onto the market.
This kept prices low at a time demand for gold was increasing.
When interest rates were high and when gold prices were
falling, many companies made money by hedging their future production. It
became an attractive proposition. Contangos (the implied margin between six
-month LIBOR and six- month gold) lease rates were high. You could sell or
borrow gold and sell at attractive borrowing rates and invest the difference in
high-yielding paper instruments. Central banks made it attractive to borrow and
sell gold and invest the difference in high-yielding government paper. It
became known as the “gold carry trade.”
Basically, you could borrow gold from a bullion bank at a
very low interest rate and then invest the difference in high yielding paper.
It is similar to what is going on in today’s bond markets where large
investors and institutions can borrow short-term and invest long-term and
pocket the spread.
Since 2001, interest rates have fallen dramatically, gold
prices have firmed and the production of gold itself has fallen. It is no
longer profitable to borrow and sell gold short. In fact it can be financially
dangerous as several mining companies have found out.
In a rising gold market, a profitable gold company doesn’t
short its future production. Instead they profit from future price increases
since their production is leveraged to a rise in gold and silver prices.
Furthermore, in a rising gold market, shareholders of gold companies have been
bringing enormous pressure on management to unwind hedge book positions.
In the last few months aggressive hedgers such as Barrick
Gold and Cambior have announced an end to their hedging policies. Gold hedging
has made Barrick Gold a major under performer in this new super bull market.
Barrick’s stock is up only 33% over the last few years compared to a gain of
450% for the Amex Gold Index of unhedged gold companies.
The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
Snap Shots:Be prepared
by Harry Flashman
The other day I missed on a wonderful photo
opportunity. Driving along a back road I saw a herd of water buffalo,
standing knee deep in an expanse of water, doing whatever water buffalo do
while getting soggy feet. No wonder I read about so many Isaan buffaloes
get sick in Ms. Hillary’s column. But back to my photo opportunity. It
was a picture postcard shot. Early morning, reflections in the water,
great lighting. It was a shot you could sell for $1000 and fortunately I
always carry my camera bag with three lenses and two camera bodies. It was
a cinch. And I had no film in either camera body, or even in the bag! Be
prepared. (By the way, never pass up an opportunity thinking that you will
come back later and get it. It never happens again!)
Apart from not getting the "shot of the
month" there are a few other reasons to carry a (loaded) camera with
you at all times. One is after close encounters of the accidental kind.
Unfortunately in Thailand there are also thousands of accident
opportunities, with most of them riding motorcycles. My local insurance
consultant was the one who reminded of this. He recommends to all of his
firm’s customers that it is prudent to keep a camera ready, just in
case. A photograph in these instances can say much more than one thousand
words, especially if they are all in Thai! As well as helping the police
to attribute blame in the right direction, it also helps the insurance
company. Be prepared.
One of the significant reasons not to carry a camera in
the car at all times, however, is the fact that it is asking to be stolen
(and generate another claim for my insurance consultant friend to deal
with) if it is on view. Put it in the glove box, do I hear you say? Please
don’t. The temperatures that can be generated in auto glove boxes is far
greater than cameras should have to endure, never mind the film.
There is a simple answer for all this and it is not a
camera bag, which does advertise the fact that you have a camera on board
(hopefully expensive from the thief’s point of view). The answer is one
of those polystyrene coolers. They come in various sizes and are very
inexpensive. A few hundred baht only at your local supermarket. You can
pop your (loaded) camera in it, shut the lid and put it in the boot, or
under the seats. The temperature will not get too high, it is away from
inquisitive eyes, and well protected. Perfect. Well prepared!
Now there are those people who are not driving around
looking for the "shot of a lifetime" or to record a motorcycle
kamikaze attack, but for these people I still recommend having some sort
of camera with you. In these cases, one of the ‘film in a box’
disposable cameras makes sense for you. Go the little bit extra and buy
the waterproof disposable ones. Songkran only comes once a year (thank
goodness) but there are other times when you might want to snap something
in the wet weather, such as during the storms or torrential rain in the
rainy season. Rain pictures can be quite spectacular. A Kodak disposable
that is safe for up to 15 metres underwater (that’s some storm) is only
around 600 baht and includes the film. Bargain! Very well prepared!
Finally, just to remind you to be prepared, remember
the lyrics of the ditty about the boy scouts penned and sung by Tom Lehrer
(over which he was taken to court by the Boy Scouts Association in
America). It went as follows:
"If you’re looking for adventure of a new and
different kind,
And you come across a girl scout who is similarly
inclined,
Don’t be nervous, don’t be bashful, don’t be
scared.
Be prepared!"
And I am sure he meant that you should have a camera
handy!
Modern Medicine: A word of warning to the expat community
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
This newspaper recently published some
(frightening) facts for the UK expatriates in Thailand, with the proposed
abolishment of their National Health Scheme entitlements. The word from the
British Health Secretary is that people will now have to prove they spend at
least six months each year in the UK to get the free care, even after they may
have spent a lifetime of contributing to National Insurance. Scary thought!
The NHS is apparently emphasizing that expatriates will still
get access to the British NHS in an emergency. However, this is as far as it
will go.
Other countries have similar schemes, with similar
restrictions. If you want to live outside your home country, then tough luck
Charlie. When you think about the implications, it is fairly frightening.
Basically, we are all on our own!
The problem we all have to face is that of getting older.
Anno Domini brings its own rewards in the form of heart attacks, strokes,
ulcers, cancers, fragile bones, arthritis and even Alzheimers (if I can remember
how to spell it correctly).
What you have to then understand is that your home country’s
‘safety net’ may not be there any more. You are going to have to knit one
yourself! Fortunately, it is possible to remain here, and get medical cover, but
the sooner you do it the better. It’s called Medical Insurance.
Of course, there are also those of you out there who will
proudly say, "I never get sick!" and for you I sincerely hope that
idyllic state continues. Of course, even if you do escape prostate cancer, lung
cancer, breast cancer, heart attacks and strokes, there is still the chance of
getting run over attempting the 50 metre dash across Pattaya Second Road any
evening. The message is just that none of us are above the risk of ill health or
injury.
The important word in that last paragraph is "risk"
- that is what insurance is all about. You are minimizing your risk of financial
exposure by contracting with an insurance company for them to cover your medical
bills, which is in turn taking on the "risk" of whether you get sick
or not. They hope that you will pay more in premiums than you cost in medical
bills, averaged out over the period of insurance. This is really high level
gambling, so let’s hope the government doesn’t hear about it!
Now the insurance companies do not go blindly into this
agreement with you. They demand to know your current state of health and family
history to work out if you are a "standard" or "high" risk
candidate. That is, I believe, fair and equitable.
However, it is also incumbent upon you to check just what you
are being covered for, and what exclusions they have applied. Caveat emptor is
the name of the game (or get a good agent).
Also check how long the company will cover you for. Some
companies do not want to know you after you turn 70. These companies are
certainly limiting their "risk" exposure in the marketplace!
So what should you do? Well, I would suggest that you do as I
have done and check with a reputable insurance agent as to what exactly the
policy will cover. Will an ailment become the subject of exclusion, after years
of being accepted as a standard risk, and will I get thrown out after a certain
age? Check today!
 Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
This week I visited my favourite chrome pole palace and my
eyes almost popped out. She was not your average dancer, she was in a class of
her own, making the stage come alive as she moved, bumped and swayed through her
bracket of songs. I know nothing of her background but her foreground is mind
boggling. She has movie star looks with flawless skin tightly wrapped around a
tall, lithe body that has more curves than an F1 circuit. I bought her a drink
and learned that she has never married, has no kids, doesn’t own a water
buffalo and her parents are healthy and wealthy. She doesn’t smoke, drink or
eat garlic and is not motivated by money. Her only wish is to meet somebody who
will be kind enough to teach her English so that she can read and study her set
of Encyclopedia Britannica. Have I finally met Pattaya’s perfect go-go girl?
Mighty Mouse
Dear Mouse,
No you have not, my squeaking little Petal. I have told you
before about smoking those cigarettes made from funny tomato plants. Not only is
it against the law, but it gives people delusions and they start talking like a
Mickey Spillane pulp paperback. Come on now, we both know this person does not
exist. English teachers do not go to chrome pole palaces to run English classes,
even if the said go-go dancer is standing on the complete set of Encyclopedia
Britannica. In the meantime, I have spoken to your doctor and he says to double
the tablets immediately.
Dear Hillary,
I am a little worried that my husband has been playing up
recently. He has been going to bars with his workmates after the office closes
and seems to be staying out longer and longer. I have told him he has to let me
know when he is coming home, as I have often got jobs for him to do around our
condo, and he has to have time to prepare the dinner for all of us (we have a
pet poodle). When I went through his pockets the other evening I found a
business card for a bar in one of the more seedy areas in town. Have I got a
real worry here or not, Hillary? Please let me know.
Anxious Annie
Dear Anxious Annie,
You sure do have a problem, Annie my Petal, you surely do. If
my partner were to be telling me to come home and cook the dinner after I spent
all day in the office, then I’d even go to bars myself, just as retaliation.
Time you learned to cook and fend for yourself. I hope you and the poodle have
some lovely romantic candlelight dinners together. Just watch out that its coat
doesn’t singe. Wake up, Annie. Time for you to be looking at what you are
doing, not what he is doing.
Dear Hillary,
I am a 61 year old expat who has recently been visiting
Thailand. I am currently having a house built here. I have taken up with a 21
year old bargirl. I think she is into leather and bondage because when she saw
my wallet she wanted to get tied to it. What do you think are the chances of a
long term relationship?
Mark. D. Sade
Dear Mark,
How long? Depends on how long you keep your wallet filled,
Petal. You could also try keeping your money in a sock, rather than a leather
wallet if you think leather’s the attraction.
Dear Hillary,
Have you ever tried crossing the road here in Thailand? You
take your life in your hands as nobody slows or makes any effort at avoiding
you. Three times this week I have had to jump out of the way of those dreadful
public taxi buses and I feel this can do the image of Thailand no good at all.
What do you think, Hillary?
Pedestrian Paul
Dear Pedestrian Paul,
Have I tried crossing the road? What a ridiculous question! Of course I’ve
tried crossing the road. That does not mean to say that I have always been
successful though. Honestly, you men do amaze me at times! I agree that the
sight of people like you jumping ineptly out of the way of rampant taxi buses
will do our image no good at all. Perhaps you could try ballet lessons at the
Chiang Mai Ballet Academy so you could jump with elegance in a “pas de chat”
manoeuvre (or perhaps that should be a “pas de bus” number)? However, if you
find that crossing the road is totally impossible, then just take the arm of one
of our old folk, and then using them as a shield, force your way through the
belching buses. The new pedestrian crossings may make a difference, but I think
it is more likely that this will assist the buses, as then the pedestrians will
all be herded into the same area, and they can get more than one with one lunge.
The crossings are really pedestrian aiming strips. No matter whether you wear
light or dark clothes, you can be picked out against the black and white zebra
stripes.
PC Blues - News and Views:
Bill Gates goes Blogging
by Monitor
The past few weeks have seen Micro$oft getting close to
blogging. At Micro$oft’s annual gathering of top business leaders in USA,
Bill Gates recommended blogging as a business management tool
(news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/3734981.stm). Speaking at the Micro$oft CEO
Summit, Gates said that blogging, together with an alert system called RSS,
is an effective aid to keep interested parties informed.
RSS will be in the next generation of the Micro$oft
Operating System, codename Longhorn.
‘Blogging’ is a contraction of ‘web logging’, a
process of keeping an online journal, or diary. People have been doing it
now for ten years. In a business context one can see the advantage of
having a website dedicated to a project, updated by the participants
whenever there is something of significance, and all parties being notified
that a change has occurred.
There are other ways of using internet technology to
coordinate work. At the simplest level, you create an email mailing list of
everyone who needs to know about the project, so that a member will email
the whole list whenever something changes. Unfortunately, whenever someone
joins the group, or leaves, everybody’s copy of the list needs to be
changed, which is an unnecessary inconvenience.
Another way is to create a newsgroup, which anyone
interested can review, and anyone authorised can post to. This is a useful
division, for often there are more people interested than there are active
workers. However, there is no way here of knowing when something has
changed other than by looking. Also, the content is fragmented into
separate messages, and one must rely on the title to guess at the content -
very unreliable.
A third way is to maintain a full-blown website. This is
usually expensive, and out-of-date.
The technology of blogging is now reasonably mature, and
this, together with a mechanism for alerting users to changes, makes it a
convenient tool for dissemination of information. Micro$oft, itself, has
700 employees who maintain blogs.
Blogger.com
... is one of many free web-based services which allow
people to create their own blogs. It was bought by Google in February last
year, and has recently had a facelift
(news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/3694691.stm). When they bought it, it had a
user base of some 200,000. A competitor, LiveJournal, claims over 3
million, of which about half are active.
Google are considering incorporating their search
technology into Blogger, so that users can efficiently search blogs.
Imagine how this would aid business. Not only would you be able to review a
project blog, but you would also be able to search it, and other company
blogs, for particular information. A company can seek economy of effort on
a grand scale.
The normal way of updating your blog is to log on to the
blog, and edit it, through a web browser. Google will be adding an email
interface - convenient for people who are mobile. Nokia is developing
software so that you can maintain your blog through a mobile phone -
including adding pictures.
Needless to say, a blog is not merely a text object.
Pictures, diagrams, blueprints, plans, video and sound clips can all be
added.
How do I make my own blog?
If you want to try it out, register with one of the free
websites, like blogger.com, above, or Blog*Spot or Live Journal. A search
on Google will find plenty of alternatives.
When you register, you will be asked for a username and
a password. Plan this. Any common nickname will probably be in use, so use
your initials, followed by a magic number, say, your date of birth. Use a
good password - you don’t want anyone hacking your blog. Take the
password from an old internet kit card: one that you aren’t using any
more.
What do you write in this blog? It is for learning only,
so it doesn’t really matter. You might care to write about the weather
every day: temperature, wind, what sort of clouds there are. If you have a
garden, you might want to keep a record of the funguses that appear. I
started a blog listing the steps in learning to write a blog. My first
problem came when it rejected my (jpeg) picture, saying it was not jpeg! I
would not recommend you write a blog exposing details of your business for
all to see. Nor would I recommend you slag off your neighbour.
Try it out for a week, and let me know what problems you
hit.
Google IPO
follow-up
In order to issue shares to the public, a company has to
disclose facts to the SEC. Google did so recently.
The two founders own about 31% of the company between
them: Larry Page owns 15.7%, and Sergey Brin owns 15.6%. When the IPO takes
place, it is expected that these two will get 3 billion US dollars between
each. This makes them rich, but only worth 1/10 of Bill Gates (Currently
28.93 billion USD, according to www.quuxuum.org/~evan/bgnw.html).
Of particular interest is the plan to issue two types of
shares, one type having more (ten times?) the voting power of the others.
In other words, they will sell shares, but they won’t sell control!
On the other hand, they have set up an ‘ethics
committee’. See news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/3732475.stm, for
more details.
Personal Directions:
Dealing with people
by Christina Dodd
“I will pay more for the ability to deal
with people than for any other ability under the sun” - John Rockefeller
We do not have business problems. We have people
problems. When we solve our people problems, our business problems are
substantially resolved. People knowledge is more important than product
knowledge.
Successful people build pleasing and magnetic
personalities, which is what makes them charismatic. This helps in getting
friendly cooperation form others. A pleasing personality is easy to
recognize but hard to define. It is apparent in the way a person walks and
talks, his tone of voice, the warmth in his behavior and his definitive
level of confidence. Some people never lose their attractiveness regardless
of age because it flows from the face and the heart.
A pleasing personality is a combination of a person’s
attitude, behavior and expressions. Wearing a pleasant expression is more
important than anything else you wear. It takes a lot more than a shoeshine
and a manicure to give a person polish. Charming manners used to disguise a
poor character may work in the short run, but reveal themselves rather
quickly. Relationships based on talent and personality alone, without
character, make life miserable. Charisma without character is like good
looks without goodness. The bottom line is, a lasting and winning
combination requires both character and charisma.
Life is an echo
A little boy got angry with his mother and shouted at
her, “I hate you, I hate you.” Because of fear of reprimand he ran out
of the house. He went up to the valley and shouted, I hate you, I hate
you,” and back came the echo, “I hate you, I hate you.” This was the
first time in his life he had heard an echo. He got scared, went to his
mother for protection, and said there was a bad boy in the valley who
shouted, “I hate you, I hate you.” The mother understood and she asked
her son to go back and shout, “I love you, I love you.” The little boy
went and shouted, “ I love you, I love you,” and back came the echo.
That taught the little boy a lesson - that our life is like an echo: we get
back what we give.
Life is a boomerang
Whether it is our thoughts, actions, or behavior, sooner
or later they return, and with great accuracy.
Treat people with respect on the way up, because you will
be meeting them on the way down. The following is an interesting story taken
from The Best of Bits & Pieces.
Many years ago two boys were working their way through
Stanford University. Their funds got desperately low, and the idea came to
them to engage Ignacy Paderewski for a piano recital. They would use the
funds to help pay their board and tuition.
The great pianist’s manager asked for a guarantee of
$2,000. The guarantee was a lot of money in those days, but the boys agreed
and proceeded to promote the concert. They worked hard, only to find they
grossed only $1,600.
After the concert the two boys told the great artist the
bad news. They gave him the entire $1,600 along with a promissory note for
$400, explaining they would earn the amount at the earliest possible moment
and send the money to him. It looked like the end of their college careers.
“No boys,” replied Paderewski, “that won’t do.”
Then, tearing the note in two, he returned the money to them as well.
“Now,” he told them, “take out of this $1,600 all of your expenses and
keep for each of you 10 percent of the balance for your work. Let me have
the rest.”
The years rolled by. World War 1 came and went.
Paderewski, now premier of Poland, was striving to feed thousands of people
in his native land. The only person in the world who could help him was
Herbert Hoover, who was in charge of the US Food and Relief Bureau. Hoover
responded and soon thousands of tons of food were sent to Poland.
After the starving people were fed, Paderewski journeyed
to Paris to thank Hoover for the relief sent him.
“That’s all right Mr Paderewski,” was Hoover’s
reply. “Besides, you don’t remember it, but you helped me once when I
was a student at college, and I was in trouble.”
Goodness has a way of coming back; that’s the nature of
the beast. One doesn’t have to do good with a desire to get it back. It
just happens automatically.
We see things not the way they are but the way we are
There is a legend about a wise man who was sitting
outside his village. A traveler cam up and asked him, “What kind of people
live in this village, because I am looking to move from my present one?”
The wise man asked, “What kind of people live where you want to move
from?” The man said, “They are mean, cruel, rude.” The wise man
replied, “The same kind of people live in this village too.” After some
time another traveler came by and asked the same question and the wise man
asked him, “What kind of people live where you want to move from?” And
the traveler replied, “The people are very kind, courteous, polite and
good.” The wise man said, “You will find the same kind of people here
too.”
What is the moral of the story?
Generally we see the world not the way it is, but the way
we are. Most of the time, other people’s behavior is a reaction to our
own.
For more information on our personal and professional
skills development programs, please write to me at Christina.dodd @asiatrainingassociates.com
Until next time, have a great week!
Social Commentary by Khai Khem:
Will zoning help solve our region’s problems?
Zoning issues involving Pattaya have
been long-standing debates due to the haphazard way in which the city and
its environs have grown. Conflicts of interests usually led to a stalemate
during which neither side advanced, but remained checkmated. This “lose,
lose” mentality can no longer be tolerated since it benefits no one in
the end.
It is becoming more obvious that without clear zoning
regulations, administration of the region will remain ineffective if not
impossible. To overcome the gap between policy and enforcement, clear
guidelines must be drawn up and initiated to accommodate improvements for
residents and the multi-faceted business community, plus tourists. The
“one size fits all” method simply doesn’t work anymore (although it
was fun while it lasted).
Zoning is in fact already a reality founded on personal
choice. Banglamung and its districts and sub-districts have evolved into a
collection of what Europe used to refer to as ghettos. No one seems to use
this word anymore, but its concept still thrives. Ghettos are not always
bad places and the term ghetto is not necessarily a derogative term. We
could just as easily describe them as semi-self-sufficient neighborhoods
or alcoves populated with people who clump together because of language,
common culture, availability of special requirements such as food,
housing, income, or access to basic services such as schools and health
care, or places of worship.
Communities are like the people who form them the world
over, including the slums, high crime neighborhoods, collapse of
infrastructure, pockets of poverty, inequality, lack of funding, et all.
Zoning our region will actually help by analyzing who
does what and where, so to speak. Until authorities have the whole
picture, with detailed data, they cannot meet the future needs of our
area. A boiling stew pot has its appeal for some, but a daily diet of the
stuff leads to indigestion and Pattaya has been suffering from a giant
bellyache for too many years.
Tourism is one sector of our region that is really
getting organized. This is a specialized industry led (I stress the word
led) by professionals who are determined to change the way visitors tour
our region and who understand what their clients want and how to give them
value for money. The tourist zones are evident and the delineation is
clearly marked. Yes, there are some hustlers that still prey on tourists,
and these need to be weeded out. Public information for tourists that help
them avoid the ruffians should be disseminated more effectively. Too many
visitors have no idea how this city works, where to go for help, what to
avoid, or how to help us help them. The language difficulties are at
present an insurmountable hurdle. But even Thais from other regions have
no idea what to do or where to go when they come here for the first time,
since Pattaya is so different from other parts of Thailand. Our
‘system’ here is aberrant, even for nationals. And pardon me for
pointing it out, but not everyone here is a tourist.
Most of Pattaya’s inner city main streets have been
improved and goods and services are for the most part modern and of high
quality. But side sois around the region are in desperate need of repair.
The biggest problem we have is related to space and traffic. Zoning the
region could allow masses of people and vehicles to bypass Pattaya and get
on with whatever they need to do without wasting time in gridlocked
bottlenecks that ring the city.
Residential and business communities are springing up
all over Chonburi Province, but Nong Prue’s population explosion is a
complicated mix of nationalities, occupations, lifestyles and agendas. Its
close proximity to Pattaya City’s amenities has been as much a curse as
a blessing.
The crowding in Pattaya has reached its zenith.
Businesses, shops and services (including government offices) must branch
out into the suburbs to prevent us all from standing on each other’s
shoulders while we fight for the basic human necessities of life and
fulfill our obligations.
Shopping for food is another hideous ordeal.
Food-gathering is no longer a fulltime lifestyle - mostly practiced after
the ice age - in case our international brand hypermarkets have not
noticed - unless one lives in this region where all the eatable food is
located in Central Pattaya. Jomtien; an area so populated it is a city
unto itself, has one small 24 hour supermarket that, bless the owners, has
been trying to serve a whole community single-handedly for two years.
I suggest potential investors take a REAL survey of
Nong Prue. The property market here for residential neighborhoods has
mushroomed beyond belief. Those huge family homes will one day provide
shelter for people who have to eat and from the looks of some of the
mansions being built, they are not going to shop at dirt markets, even if
they have to pile their cars and vans with food from other areas and line
their massive kitchens with deep-freezers. Some of old hands already do
that. Market researchers also know that when an area is so congested it
cannot function, money doesn’t change hands. “There’s money in them
there hills!” And no one is tapping into it but the property developers
who are aware that a mass exodus is coming. People get out, go around and
bypass slums and ghettos when they’ve lost hope in the structure.
The old expression, “from the wrong side of the
tracks” is an apt description of how Sukhumvit Road has cut our
‘city’ in half. Ten lanes of dangerous traffic and the annual accident
rate have taken its toll. Pattaya’s a hassle a lot of people just
don’t want to deal with anymore. The ‘wrong’ side of the tracks just
might be Pattaya. Four and a half months without a city government has
indeed “left a mountain of work undone.” We managed to survive the
vacuum. It’s the WORK we fear. Fear and suspicion is bred from lack of
information, rumors and misinformation. Tell us what’s happening in
detail and the public will adjust accordingly.
Psychological Perspectives:
The value of a psychological perspective
by Michael Catalanello,
Ph.D.
Welcome to a new feature in the Pattaya Mail, a series
of articles I’m calling, “Psychological Perspectives.” In this
series I will examine various issues of topical and local interest from
the standpoint of modern psychological theory.
I began preparing this series by asking myself what
value a psychological perspective on current events might have to offer
readers. Aren’t we, after all, inundated by perspectives by various
experts and commentators claiming special expertise in some area of
knowledge? What makes a psychological perspective particularly relevant or
valuable?
Modern psychology views itself as the scientific study
of human behavior and mental processes. As sciences go, psychology is
relatively young. The establishment of the first experimental laboratory
in Germany in 1879 is usually cited as marking the advent of psychology as
a scientific discipline. The subject matter of modern psychology, human
thought, emotions, and behavior, however, is quite old, dating from Greek
antiquity. Like its older siblings, the so-called hard sciences of
physics, biology and chemistry, the science of psychology developed from
roots in philosophy and metaphysics, the branch of philosophy which deals
with understanding reality and developing theories about our world and how
we gain knowledge.
One might legitimately ask what it means to consider a
field of inquiry such as psychology a “science.” What is it that
determines psychology’s status as a science, and what makes a scientific
approach to understanding our world superior to other approaches to
knowledge, such as pseudo-science or religion?
A typical answer to that question might start with an
appeal to scientists’ use of a certain disciplined empirical method of
inquiry known as the “scientific method,” or the
“hypothetico-deductive method,” in which theories are tested using
controlled experiments and rigorous observational methodologies.
Those knowledgeable about contemporary issues in the
philosophy of science will immediately recognize the problems associated
with the view that scientists adhere rigorously to a universal scientific
method. Modern philosophers have advanced convincing arguments that a
strict universal scientific method associated with scientific advance is
not identifiable from the history of science. Those arguments are beyond
the scope of the present article, however. Suffice it to say that
contemporary experimental psychologists have adapted certain methodologies
used in the hard sciences to the investigation of psychological phenomena.
Like all scientific knowledge, psychological findings are subject to
reevaluation and revision in light of new experimental findings and
theoretical insights.
Today, we are faced with unsettling world events such
as wars, terrorism, the recent prisoner abuse scandal in Iraq, suicide
attackers, and the spread of serious diseases acquired and transmitted by
human behavior. Aspects of these events might seem puzzling and raise
serious questions uniquely suited to psychological investigation. Yet the
findings of psychologists are often hidden from the public because they
are buried in dusty technical journals or cloaked by technical
professional jargon.
As a specialist in psychology I inevitably find myself
viewing current events within the context of my professional training as a
psychologist. In my view, research in psychology provides a valuable
context for understanding many of those events. I hope you will join me
during the coming weeks as we examine current news events, as well as
issues of local interest, and try to understand them in light of modern
psychological theories and research findings.
Dr. Catalanello is licensed as a psychologist in his home State of
Louisiana, USA. He is member of the Liberal Arts Faculty at Asian
University in Jomtien. Address questions or comments to: [email protected]
|
