Family Money: Charting a Safe Course

By Leslie Wright

When it comes to analysing and predicting the future movements of a stock market, or indeed, any individual stock within it, there are two different schools of thought on how to go about it.

These are known as Chartists and Fundamentalists.

Terms such as “wedges”, “flags”, and “head & shoulders” would be immediately recognised by golfers as key elements of a game well known for the odd wager.

They are also of critical importance to the investor who follows the ‘chartist’ theory of investment, where the technicalities can be even more bewildering and the stakes invariably greater.

“History repeats itself”

The guiding principle of chartism is that you can predict the future direction of share prices based on their previous behaviour - a philosophy which can be summarised as “the trend is our friend”.

Whilst the chartist approach to investment has become increasingly sophisticated as a result of advances in computing power, the following principles remain the cornerstone of their approach.

The chartist is always looking for price behaviour which forms certain key patterns when presented in a graphical format, such as those shown.

These are just two of the many patterns that would be likely to prompt the chartist into buying or selling activity.

It is not only the particular pattern price movements display that is important, but where an established pattern is broken that is considered to hold the key to the future direction.

This approach is discussed at great length and detail once a week in the Bangkok Post, to cite just one excellent example of a chartist at work.

For most amateur investors, however, such lengthy and technical discussions are a bit boring, especially in light of the amount of jargon that tends to creep into such analyses.

At the risk of being boring and technical, then, let me try to explain a few of the more important indicators that both professional chartists and amateur investors might look for.

Ups & Downs in Downs & Ups

‘Wedges’ are typified by price movements creating trend lines which come together at an apex with a noticeable upward or downward slant.

The first example is a positive indicator despite the falling wedge, whilst the second shows the likelihood of a further decline in the price, despite the upward slope of the rising wedge.

The chartist would therefore analyse the positive (or ‘bullish’) indicator in the first example as a time to buy.

In the second case, the point where the price breaks out of the rising wedge - but downwards - would be a time to sell.

This is usually considered to indicate a reversal in fortunes, often the end of a bull market, but also to signal the end of a market decline when the pattern is the other way up.

An example is shown below, with the left shoulder representing the point at which sellers come in (often referred to in the financial press as “profit taking”), with the subsequent trough representing the start of the ‘neckline’.

Buyers return at this lower price and push the price to a new high.

Profits are taken again, and the stock (or market) slips back - or “corrects” itself, as it’s usually termed - to the neckline.

If, as in this example, the market fails to regain this new high in its next peak, this will have been the head, signalling the end of the positive run.

The lower peak following the head makes up the right shoulder, after which the price will be expected to begin a downward trend, triggering renewed selling activity.

Fundamentally speaking

Chartism contrasts with the more common ‘fundamentalist’ or ‘value’ approach, typified by the well-known investment guru Warren Buffett.

Value investors are persuaded by factors such as a company’s earnings, dividends and book values rather than historical price behaviour and buy shares with a long-term outlook.

It would, however, be foolish to dismiss the growing influence of chartism investment theory as financial astrology. Why? Because most chartists follow the same essential principles, their predictions can become self-fulfilling.

For example, should the behaviour of a share price indicate a time to buy a certain stock, the weight of demand that is created to purchase the stock will tend to push the price to a higher level, whether or not other fundamental indicators support such a rise.

Similarly, when a price rise has been too steep, or unsupported by fundamentals, the chartist will recognise it is time to sell - and the resulting demand to sell can cause a major drop, and even a knock-on effect which can affect the whole market if the selling frenzy is massive enough.

Both these phenomena have been seen time and time again - and in a relatively small stock market such as the SET, a few significant buyers or sellers of a few key stocks can drastically alter the direction the index is taking.

Investment institutions nowadays, with literally thousands of stocks to track, use computers to perform much of this tracking, and many have developed sophisticated programs which place automatic ‘buy’ or ‘sell’ orders whenever the price reaches pre-determined levels.

This is all based on chartist theory, and eliminates the human tendency to chase after a falling market, or wait too long in an apparently rising one before taking profits.

So whether you are persuaded by the merits of the chartist approach, or feel more at ease with a value-based approach to investment analysis, the degree of research and expertise required to apply such strategies to a portfolio is generally beyond the private investor.

However, you should be able to see the patterns outlined above in many real life examples in the financial press and market performance charts.

Reading the investment reports for any investment funds in which you have placed your money should give you a good indication of the particular approach they adopt.

If you have any comments or queries on this article, or about other topics concerning investment matters, write to Leslie Wright, c/o Family Money, Pattaya Mail, or fax him directly on (038) 232522 or e-mail him at [email protected]. Further details and back articles can be accessed on his firm’s website on www.westminsterthailand.com.

Leslie Wright is Managing Director of Westminster Portfolio Services (Thailand) Ltd., a firm of independent financial advisors providing advice to expatriate residents of the Eastern Seaboard on personal financial planning and international investments.

The Computer Doctor

by Richard Bunch

From Stan, Pattaya: I am going to buy a new PC and have decided I want the best performance money can buy. I have decided on the top Pentium III processor, i.e. the 550Mhz. I want lots of storage space as I deal a lot with graphic applications including CAD. Do you think I should use SCSI drives or will the standard be OK? Can you advise and perhaps enlighten me as to the difference?

Computer Doctor replies: Firstly, Intel has announced the Pentium III 600 MHz this week so if you really want to go for the top system, then this processor is for you.

On the subject of SCSI drives, SCSI stands for small computer systems interface and should be the first choice for users of applications like CAD/CAM, desktop publishing, and digital media content creation that continue to use high-performance workstations as their computing workhorses.

These applications demand a lot from the systems I/O power. Whist the newer IDE drives have made some inroads into the SCSI market, Benchmark tests on Ultra2 SCSI drives reveal significant performance improvements over their IDE bedfellows.

Ultra ATA is still a single-threaded I/O interface limited by the ability to execute only one I/O request at a time. This restricts total data throughput speeds. In contrast, SCSI is a multi-threaded I/O interface. This means it can process multiple I/O requests concurrently. The SCSI bus remains free until a device has information, command, data, or status, to send on the bus, orchestrated by the SCSI host adapter. A hard drive or other device with an outstanding request disconnects from the SCSI bus until it has information to send. This technology allows multiple devices to process requests simultaneously and is an effective way to overlap the mechanical drive delays required to locate data. It is also an effective way to share the bus bandwidth among all connected devices. With SCSI, the throughput of all drives can be combined for data throughput of up to 80 MByte/sec.

SCSI’s multi-threading does not just provide benefits in multiple peripheral environments. SCSI’s multi-threading also allows multiple requests to be processed simultaneously by one device in a single application automatically. This queuing of commands allows the drive to re-order the requests to minimize the total time required to service them. Command queuing can be especially valuable in workstations with a single hard disk drive.

In general terms the SCSI drive will cost around 3 to 4 times as much as its IDE counterpart. In addition to this, remember you will need a SCSI controller card. Personally I prefer these to controllers on-board a motherboard. The cost of a good controller card is in the region of 15-20,000 Baht.

If money really isn’t an object then go for the SCSI, it really is unbeatable and the performance it will give you will I am sure amaze you.

Send your questions or comments to the Pattaya Mail at 370/7-8 Pattaya Second Road, Pattaya City, 20260 or Fax to 038 427 596 or E-mail to [email protected].

Successfully Yours: Rungthip Suksrikarn

by Mirin MacCarthy

Khun Rungthip Suksrikarn, the managing director of the 250 Room Sunbeam Hotel in Pattaya, is like many Thai women: charming, hard working, successful and quietly competent.

Born in Bangkok some thirty odd years ago she somehow combines and balances her business interests, frequent trips abroad, family life and children, and personal interests of exercise, singing, dancing and with ease and flair. Dare I say it - Thai women seem to be born to easily outdistance their Thai male counterparts and indeed anyone of any gender anywhere. What is their secret? Fortune smiles on the brave or the determined? I believe it is hard work and application.

Rungthip is the eldest daughter in her family. She has two brothers and her parents were originally in real estate, but are now retired. Her grandfather migrated from China.

She went to school in Bangkok and took a BA in marketing from the Sukothai Tamatirad University. Why? “Because I intended to be a business woman in the future. I did not want to be anyone’s employee.”

Rungthip had a part time position as secretary in an insurance company while she was completing her degree. This is where she became proficient in the English language. However, her life really changed ten years ago when she married and found herself in the centre of hotel management. “I never thought I would go into the hotel business.” Her new Father-in-Law had built the Sunbeam Hotel in Pattaya, but since all of his family were in real estate in Bangkok they did not want to relocate. The running of the Sunbeam was then given over to Rungthip and her new husband.

Next, her husband involved himself with real estate here as well and left the hotel business to her. She took the position on with typical gutsy determination, installing her brother as resident General Manager and concerning herself with sales and marketing and positioning the hotel in the international market.

All this she has achieved, seemingly effortlessly, while simultaneously bringing up her own family of two boys, aged nine and seven, and a girl, aged two.

Rungthip has had no formal training in hotel management. “Experience to me is my teacher,” she says simply. Beneath the shy smile you can sense an iron will; she will make it work, regardless.

She is not all work and no play, however her non-commercial interests revolve around the entertainment industry. She became very animated talking about this and the words came out in rapid-fire succession. “My father taught me to dance when I was eight years old. I love exercise and singing and dancing. Latin dancing - especially, the cha cha, the rumba and the tango. We opened a dancing club at the Sunbeam a year ago. You can dance every Friday and Saturday from midday to 8 p.m., that’s a lot of hours if you can take the pace. Then there is dancing in the lobby lounge from 8 p.m. to midnight.” No wonder Rungthip looks fit (gasp!).

Success to her is to be able to achieve her ambitions. Her aims for the future are to make her hotel more internationalised, to open it up to more markets. “I would like to have another hotel also. I love the business, and I love to do it. I have good clients, they become friends and they return every year. That is why I feel successful.”

Rungthip values honesty above all else. In addition she feels it is very important to be good to the staff and treat them well. “Some of our staff have been here for ten years, that’s a long time.”

Her secret is ‘Service’. “The standard of a hotel’s service is very important. The hotel business means service. This means how to get to know the guests and what they want, also to keep them happy and wanting to return.”

Her advice to anyone wanting to go into the hotel industry is, “Do you love to serve? Do you have it in your heart? If so you can do it.”

After an hour with this remarkable lady, it is obvious that she has all those qualities, plus a determination to succeed. Wrap that all up in a petite Thai lady and you have a most formidable business woman.

Snap Shots: Investigate people’s backgrounds!

by Harry Flashman

The majority of shots in your snapshot album are of people. Right? Well, it is that way for 9 out of 10 amateur photographers. However, there are many things that you can do to help make even the simplest “grab shot” stand out from the run of the mill.

The first tip is to look at the background before you pop the shutter button. This requires you to practice looking through the viewfinder with the critical eye. It means that you look beyond the breathtakingly beautiful model posed before your lens and stretch your focus through to the background. Number 1 rule - make the background contrasting where possible.

close up

This simply means to have a light background if the person you are shooting has dark hair, and the reverse for those with blonde or white hair. Now to get this may require you to move the model, move yourself or move the location. And let Harry here assure you that this is worthwhile. No matter how good the shot looks as you try so diligently to get a pinpoint focus on your subject - if there is no contrast between subject and background you will be disappointed in the final photograph. The person’s hair will disappear into the background. This is especially so when photographing the very dark haired people of Thailand. Just look at some of the news photographs in this issue of the Pattaya Mail and you will see just what I mean.

So what can you do if you are stuck with the wrong background? OK, there are several things you can do. The first is to turn on your electronic flash and even set the camera on automatic with it. Now walk close to the subject and pop the shutter and the flash. What happens here is that the flash will light up the foreground subject, but run out of steam by the time the flash burst reaches the background. By selectively lighting the foreground subject you have achieved that contrast necessary.

So you haven’t got a daytime flash facility on your camera - what now? Well, very often you can move the subject forward, away from the background and Mother Nature might supply you some light to lift the subject. Even direct overhead light can provide a rim of light around the hair, enough to contrast with the dark background.

So what else can you do? Well, if you have an SLR and can manually adjust the lens aperture you can use selective focus to help you. Use the longest lens you have (or the zoom at the highest number), move the subject as far away from the background as possible and move in as close as you can to the subject. In this way you have used the optical qualities of the lens to keep a sharp focus on the subject and throw the background into a hazy, out of focus blur.

Probably the last item to consider is colour. When all else fails, or is impossible, position your subject against a contrasting coloured background. This time, it is often better to place your subject very close to the background, rather than away from it as we have been doing so far. You want to illuminate the background just as much as the foreground, so you highlight the colour contrasts. A yellow dress in front of a red door, for example.

So you think you are still in trouble? Well, there’s only one thing left, and it is the advice I give all the time - walk several yards closer! Make the person, your subject, your “hero” fill the frame in the viewfinder. This way you have now almost totally eliminated the background. No longer is it a problem. In some ways it is the perfect solution.

Investigate the background this weekend before clicking the shutter.

Modern Medicine: Another Wonder Cure!

by Dr Iain Corness

Yet again the pharmaceutical world has managed to get itself banner headings across the globe. “Arthritis pill beats Viagra as best seller,” says the headline from some chap writing for Associated Press. Certainly attention grabbing.

I must admit that my first thought was that somehow this new arthritis cure-all was able to give Willy the Wonder Wand a new lease of life as a sort of pleasant side effect. However, this was not the case as I found by reading further. The new wonder cure is purely for pain relief from arthritis. Reading further down the story it appeared that this new drug was supposed to fix the aches without drilling holes in your stomach the way the more usual arthritis drugs do.

Even further reading showed that the manufacturer claimed that the new wonder cure “MAY (my capitals) cause fewer ulcers than other drugs” although the American Food and Drug Administration still required the manufacturer to put the same warnings about stomach ulcers on this new drug as they have to with the other older drugs for pain relief.

All of a sudden, this newspaper article did not look as informative as it did before. Even the reference to Viagra was somewhat suspect, especially when the writer said, “A significant amount of usage of Viagra was recreational and after a while the users got over the novelty of it.” This quotation was attributed to a Jack Lamberton, an analyst from a securities firm and apparently a part-time comedian. Who is he trying to kid? Recreational? Were all these old men supposed to use Viagra for PROcreational purposes? Come on!

Looking at this article a little bit further, and as a medico I began to feel more and more that I was being manipulated by the drug companies. This has become an increasing ploy of the pharmaceutical industry of late. Produce a demand in the general public and the doctors have to go along to write prescriptions to fill an apparent need. Meanwhile the drug company profits go through the roof.

The correct way to introduce any new drug is to fully test it, put the reports of the tests into the MEDICAL journals (not the popular press) and have their reps detail the doctors so that the medical profession can decide how and when this medication should be used. When the demand is coming from the patient, this is not the best way for either the patient or the profession.

I tend to look back at the other “wonder drugs” that the drug companies have released in this way. Take Prozac for example, the newspapers were running articles on this drug before it appeared in the legitimate medical press. Again this produced a demand (and expectation) in the general public before it was proven to work in clinical practice. Do not get me wrong - it is not a bad drug, but it is not the panacea for all depressive ills.

No, I tend to be very sceptical of these breakthroughs that the patients tell me about, rather than the other way around. There are no real wonder cures, I’m afraid. Even Viagra has had more than a few drawbacks - especially when used for “recreational purposes” and thank you Jack Lamberton!

Dear Hillary,

We live in a condominium in town, and while it is very handy to everywhere in Pattaya it can be a little noisy at times, especially at night! My husband, who sleeps like a log, never hears anything and does not understand that I wake very easily and am having sleepless nights because of this. It also makes me irritable. We have a contract for another nine months in this condo so I can’t just move. What advice have you got for me?

Jan

Dear Jan,

Earplugs may help. The soft foam compressible ones are available in large pharmacies. They are small cylinders of sound reducing foam that you roll between your fingers before putting them in your ears. Inserted, they expand to the exact shape of your ear canal effectively stopping sound conduction. They are comfortable to wear and easy to remove and insert and are cheap and reusable. Their only disadvantage is that you will not hear anything, including the alarm or the telephone. If your log of a husband snores then this may be an advantage. An expensive way is to double glaze your windows and you would need your landlord’s permission for this.

Dear Hillary,

My maid is becoming increasingly lazy. When she first came, she was armed with references from her previous employer who said she was wonderful, spoke English, good with animals, fabulous ironer - in fact just the maid I had always hoped to get. It became obvious in the first month that she was not really as good as she had been described, but I persevered, patiently explaining what I wanted and expected. However, after six months I see she is doing less and less around the house and even spending shorter hours than she is contracted for. I have mentioned this to my husband, but he does not appear to care and says that the maid is my territory. She is great with our cats while we are away and is 100% honest, though. What do you suggest I do? Sack her? Retrain her, but how? Or just put up and shut up?

Katie.

Dear Katie,

I suggest you attempt to retrain her. No easy task but small improvements can be accomplished. An “honest” animal-loving maid is a bonus. Start with your working environment. Thais don’t want to work if it is not fun. If she likes Thai music have it playing softly in the background. Smile at her a lot, this is very important, and speak to her. Give her small gifts occasionally, gooey cakes and sweets are always acceptable. Address her time keeping first. Every time she looks like leaving a half an hour or more early, say with a surprised smile, “Oh! Do you want to leave early today? Well that’s O.K. if you work the extra time tomorrow.” Thais are very conscious of maintaining face. No criticism is unacceptable to them. The only way to get round this is to say, “It’s my mistake, I did not show you properly before...” Then go ahead and personally demonstrate how you want a particular task done. No more than one of these “retraining” attempts a week, or she may leave permanently early.

Ironing can be a problem, especially if she doesn’t improve after a demonstration. Send all silk clothes out to be dry-cleaned. For anything else that is not done reasonably (note I said reasonably, not perfectly) you may simply smilingly give them to her the next day and ask her to re-iron.

It is always a face-saver in Thai society to lay the criticism at a “superior’s” head. Make your husband the bogeyman. Say, “My husband is not happy with me because I didn’t show you how to do xyz properly. He likes the xyz really neat like this.” The other option you have is ask her to really dust, clean and tidy one different room each day, or give her one extra task to do each day. Finally, be aware you are just not going to be able to get the same standards of housekeeping here as overseas. Try to learn to live with cobwebs on the curtain rails and dust under the bookcases if you can. Save your retraining efforts for the things that really aggravate you.

GRAPEVINE

Dining Out: Thoughts of Boris, Barishnikov and Borscht

by Miss Terry Diner

The variety of restaurants in Pattaya is enormous. There are many ‘stand alone’ national restaurants with their own special cuisine on offer. The Black River Russian Restaurant on Pattaya Second Road (almost opposite the old Mike’s) is one of those.

The restaurant itself is very new, having been going for less than one year. The d้cor is quietly understated, with marble and mirrors everywhere complete with black tables and chairs to fit in with the Black River theme.

The menu is in that quaint Cyrillic Russian alphabet, with an English translation underneath. It starts with Russian pancakes with a variety of accompaniments such as sour cream, fried eggs, ham or even jams. Prices range between 80-120 Baht.

Next section is the Appetisers, again very Russian with egg stuffed with red caviar at the top of the list at 200 baht, going through to various squid dishes, to tuna, shrimps, herring, assorted meats and some vegetarian offerings, all between 60-210 Baht.

There are several soups between 80-160 Baht with such wonderful names as “Kvass”, “Pelmeni” and “Borscht”, many mains, generally in the 160-220 Baht range, with a good selection from fish, squid, chicken, pork and other meats all done in typical Russian style. For those who must eat Thai, there is also a small Thai food section at the back of the menu.

We were fortunate to have the delightful Anna, from Vladivostock, as our dining companion and cuisine interpreter for the evening. We were then made ready for some authentic Russian experiences!

We began with the Herring with Onion. A strong fish dish but the vinegar cuts the oiliness of the herring. This dish comes with slices of hot black bread. A great appetiser. This was followed by a tomato dish. Slices of cold tomato with what appeared to be just grated cheese and some mayonnaise on top. What was hidden, till you ate it, was the garlic! A sensational taste that was probably the highlight of the evening for me. If you like something with a real garlic kick, this is it.

The next item that Anna insisted we try was the traditional Russian thin salty pancake with red caviar. Good sized portions and if you like caviar this is the dish you want. Not bitter at all, as some caviar I have tasted. It was excellent and was madame’s pick.

By now we were getting more than slightly satiated, but Anna had not finished with us (they eat well, these Russians!) and out came two steaming bowls of Pelmeni soup. These are pork and beef dumplings in a chicken stock. Again a very flavoursome soup and exceptionally filling.

When the “Golubtsy”, a meat stuffed cabbage leaf arrived I was ready to capitulate. It was lovely, Anna, but so much! If that were not enough, she then trotted out a dessert of prunes with nuts and whipped cream. Oh Anna! Oh those Russians! What a banquet! Great food and something totally different.

There is also a Russian Dance cabaret after 11 p.m. so if you want to have a really Russian evening stay after dinner. It is worth going, even if just for the food!

Animal Crackers: Elephants: Spot the Difference!

by Mirin MacCarthy

Elephants are very plentiful in Pattaya, with several elephant villages or kraals dotted around the outskirts. You will all have by now become used to the sight of these huge beasts quietly loping along Sukhumvit Road or along Beach Road at Jomtien in the evenings.

“Asian or African?”

The elephant is the largest animal in the world and is descended from even larger animals such as mammoths and mastodons, so its “pedigree” goes back to before mankind itself.

There are two main types of elephant - the African and the Asian, and most people will tell you the difference is in the size of the ears. African ones have the larger. The principal reason for this is climatic. The elephants use their ears as heat exchangers to cool their blood running through the veins in the ears. The African environment is hotter and drier than that of Asia, hence the smaller ears in our local variety of elephant.

However there are many other differences between the two species.

TUSKS - In the African species, both the male and female elephants have large visible tusks. In the Asian species only the males have large visible tusks. The females have small tusks called tushes that are not usually visible.

HEAD SHAPE - The African elephant only has one dome on the top of its head, and the forehead is slightly sloped. The Asian elephant has two distinct domes at the top of its head.

BACK SHAPE - The African elephant’s back is swayed, and the highest point is at the top of the shoulders. The Asian elephant’s back is more rounded, and the highest point is at the top of the head.

SKIN TEXTURE - The African elephant’s skin is more wrinkled, whereas the Asian elephant’s skin is smoother.

TOENAILS - Elephants actually have five digits on each foot, but not all of the digits have nails. Generally, the African elephant has four nails on the front feet and three nails on the back feet. The Asian elephant generally has five nails on the front feet and four on the back feet.

TRUNK - There is a projection on the end of the elephant’s trunk that is referred to as a “finger.” The African elephant has two “fingers” on the end of its trunk, and will use a grasping motion when picking things up. (This is much like the way we use our thumb and forefinger.) The Asian elephant has only one “finger,” so it has to curl the end of its trunk around anything it wants to pick up.

So next time you meet an elephant on Sukhumvit Road you will very quickly be able to identify where it comes from!

Auto Mania: Where to from here?

by Dr. Iain Corness

I mentioned the Economist Report the other week and since then I have had time to sit down and wade through it. The reading was fairly dry, as most of it tended to be in code, with acronyms everywhere necessitating referral to the back all the time to see just what types of cars they were referring to. The rest of it was number crunching with estimates and forecasts of future production. However, there were some interesting facts in it.

The biggest estimated increase will be in “mini” cars with a projected increase over the next four years of almost 40%. These are defined as very small vehicles, less than 3 metres in overall length, generally with a less than 1 litre engine and two door configuration. These are your Daihatsu Mira’s and Toyota Starlets and even smaller. The real reason for the growth in this market area is price. As we have all had to tighten our respective belts, it has meant that we have had to look at cheaper replacement cars as the older models become too expensive to maintain.

Japan has legislation and registration bonuses to encourage this market with Suzuki, Toyota and Daihatsu the top manufacturers, but Europe is also moving in this direction. Fiat have a 600 which is the top seller over there, but VW will have its Lupino and Peugeot a shortened 106 coming too.

The largest single segment in the world market is the lower medium sized cars. These are around 1300-2000 cc and less than 4.2 metres in length. Typical examples of this group are the VW Golf and the Toyota Corolla.

These vehicles tend to be “platform” based, where the one common base can be delivered in many forms, from saloon, hatchback, MPV, SUV and sports/cabriolet variants. The forthcoming GM Zafira, to be made here in the Eastern Seaboard Industrial Estate, should be one of these. Europe is the biggest producer in this area of the market with VW being the leader followed by Renault. There are also important manufacturing centres in North America and Japan.

There are so many manufacturers in this group that this is where the most intense competition will lie. The keenest bargains will be found here in the next four years. The British 2 Litre Saloon car motor racing is really just another showcase marketing tool for these manufacturers, hence their willingness to shovel countless thousands of Pounds into this formula. With an estimated 13 million cars being produced in 2004 there will need to be plenty of aggressive marketing to move these out of the factory parking lots and into garages throughout the world.

The second largest increase in the segmented market will be SUV’s according to the Economist. They expect the output to move up to almost 6 million units, an increase of 25% on the current levels. These Sports Utility Vehicles (if you hadn’t guessed what SUV stood for) are things like the Land Rover Discovery or the funky looking Toyota Rav 4. The quite awful Daihatsu Terios is also in here - be terrified in a Terios! If you haven’t driven one, then don’t. I am quite fond of Daihatsu as a manufacturer, but the Terios is not one of their better offerings.

The North American market is the driving force for the world SUV output, with around 50% of the total being manufactured and sold over there. To extend the market, the manufacturers are also offering luxury versions with Lincoln and Cadillac SUV’s being amongst these.

Europe is slowly warming to the SUV concept, with even Porsche bringing one out in the next couple of years. Will this be the world’s first 150 MPH SUV I wonder? The other major European manufacturers are also gearing up for these models, with VW and Fiat in the forefront. Some of them will just be variants of the common platform from the lower medium sized cars, but are classified as SUV’s.

Japan already built several of these types of vehicle and are beginning to export these, with Toyota, Isuzu, Mitsubishi and Daihatsu (gawdblessem) all in there. Nissan and Toyota are also planning local build in North America, based on their pick-up range, to get a toehold in that large slice of this market.

The big losers will be the dedicated sports cars, according to the pundits, although there will always be the high end buyers for Porsche, Ferrari and Jaguar. All I can say is Hallelujah. I’d rather drive an old sporty car than a new SUV. What about you?

Autotrivia Quiz

Just about everyone thought that last week’s question was just so easy. Which was the first East-West engine Front Wheel Drive production car? Sir Alec Issigonis’ BMC Mini of 1959 (goodness, was it that long ago) was the popular vote. Sorry, the correct answer was the twin cylinder DKW of 1931. And so much for Rule Britannia!

Yes, all these FWD E-W engine Corollas, Lasers, Aspires, Mazda 323’s, etc., are just following the ground breaking work of the hard working engineers at the DKW factory, who’s initials by the way do not stand for “Das Kleine Wunder” (the little wonder) but actually came from “Dampf Kraft Wagen” (the steam car), an experimental vehicle built by the founder Jorgen Skafte Rasmussen in 1916.

Of course, Sir Alec Issigonis was a sporting motorist in his own right, having built a lightweight monoposto in 1939. Adolf’s bunfight stopped the UK competitions, but Issigonis was present at the first sprint meeting run after the war (28th October 1945 for the nit-pickers out there) run on Filton Aerodrome near Bristol. Sir Alec was a smart Alec and won his class too. So there’s more trivia than you can shake a stick at!

So let’s stay with Issigonis’ little mini’s for a while, for this week’s question. There can hardly be anyone who has not either owned, or been for a run in one of these. The performance models were breathed upon by John Cooper, famous rear engine racing car designer (and driver, too). The “Cooper bricks” as they were called were easy to spot from the outside as there were three very distinct external differences (not counting the “Cooper” badge) between them and the normal “family brick”. For this week’s FREE beer, be first in correct with those three external features. Fax 427 596 or email to [email protected].

Fitness Tips: Exercise and Arthritis

by David Garred,
Club Manager Dusit Resort Sports Club

G’day Pattaya.

Lately, I have come across several people who are wondering if it is possible and if so how do they exercise safely when they suffer with Arthritis in one or more joints of their body.

Firstly, yes, you can still exercise (and thus improve the quality of your life) when you suffer with Arthritis.

In answer to the second part of the question let’s take a bit of a look at what is involved.

Arthritis can affect almost anyone, male or female, children or adults. In fact arthritis or musculo-skeletal conditions affect one in three of the population at some time in their lives. There are well over 100 different types of musculo-skeletal disorders and they are the single cause of disability in Australia for example.

Arthritis literally means inflammation of a joint, but this does not always occur. The term ‘musculo-skeletal condition’ is more inclusive and refers to problems with the joints, bones and muscles. Since it is not a single disease, symptoms vary considerably from one person to the next. Two of the most common forms are osteoarthritis, which primarily causes degeneration of the joint cartilage, and rheumatoid arthritis, in which the whole body is affected and the joints are inflamed.

How does exercise help arthritis?

Exercise helps relieve and prevent the problems associated with arthritis such as joint stiffness, muscle weakness, joint deformity, dependence on others, stress and depression. Weight bearing exercise can also help to minimise the effects of osteoporosis.

Exercise guidelines

Everyone is an individual with their own lifestyle, exercise preferences, physical capabilities and level (threshold) of pain. The following guidelines will help you exercise safely and effectively, but there is no single exercise rule that is applicable to everyone with arthritis.

* Find the right balance and rest.

* Include a variety of exercises to ensure a balanced programme that works on strength, flexibility and aerobic (Heart & Lung) conditioning for the whole body.

* If your joints are stiff, they need more exercise (BUT never force a stiff joint to move more than it is able). It’s a good idea to take all your joints through their full range of motion each & every day.

* If your joints are badly inflamed then rest is needed.

* When exercising concentrate on quality rather than quantity - you would be better to perform less properly than you would to perform more poorly.

* Move your joints slowly and smoothly - do not jerk them.

* Do not continue with an exercise that causes severe pain.

* If pain after exercise lasts for more than two hours, it means that you have overdone it - so do less next time. Perhaps you need to change your programme? Never use extra pain medication to mask exercise induced pain.

* If you have a joint replacement, check with your doctor or physiotherapist about what movements to avoid.

* Muscles and joints are exercised more effectively when they are warmed up - after a bath or a shower might be a very good start to your gym session.

Exercising in water is a good way to exercise your whole body because the buoyancy of the water supports the joints so they can move easily and freely. It also helps tight muscles to relax.

Did you know?

Joints that are injured are prone to osteoarthritis and repeat injuries further increase the risk of developing it. To reduce the chance of getting injury make sure you always warm up before exercise and if you do become injured, allow adequate healing time before returning to exercise.

Arthritis Statistics

* 4.58 million Australians have a long term musculo-skeletal disease (Australia’s population is only 18.5 million according to the 1997 census)

* 1.14 million of the above group have osteoarthritis

* The incidence of arthritis is increasing by 8% per annum

* 63,300 people with arthritis are 24 years of age or less

* 12.7% of people taking medications do so for musculo-skeletal or connective tissue disease

* The total cost to the Australian community of musculo-skeletal conditions is approximately $AUS 4.5 Billion ($US 2.9 billion)

If you are considering starting a Health and Fitness programme heed this advice and take it alone to your local professional instructor, sit down and have a good long chat. Believe me, the more information that you can give your instructor about your particular condition and set of circumstances the better we can apply that information to tailoring a programme to your needs. It helps us do our jobs better.

Carpe’ diem

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Updated by Chinnaporn Sangwanlek.