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Graham Macdonald MBMG International Ltd. Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize |
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Structured Products are sometimes not what they seem
It is vital people know how to navigate safely round the
minefield of personal investment products. Two of the biggest areas of concern
are pensions and “structured products”, a group of risky financial instruments
that are typically promoted as “100 percent capital protected” but more often
than not can leave investors in the lurch. In this column, I’ll focus on
structured products.
Structured products are offered to investors under a variety of names by banks,
building societies and financial advisers. They normally run for fixed terms of
three months or longer and are variously described as “guaranteed”, “protected”
or “dynamic”. In some cases they are given impressively complex titles such as
“capital accumulator auto-call option”. The implication is that that these
reassuring titles confer a higher level of investment security. The reality is
that the opposite is all too often the case; structured products frequently
carry additional higher risks, such as “counterparty risk” which can render the
investment worthless.
The counterparty is usually a bank, insurance company or financial institution
which provides the “guarantee” or “protection” in return for the majority of the
investors’ capital being deposited within the counterparty’s own fixed interest
instruments such as zero coupon bonds. A zero coupon bond is a fixed interest
instrument that actually does not pay out the interest earned but rolls it up
increasing the price of the instrument until it reaches a predetermined value at
a specified point in the future, providing the capital protection element of the
product.
In extreme cases counterparties may require over 99 percent of an investment
deposited in such instruments, leaving less than 1 percent investable. This
means that effectively 99 percent of your investment is invested in and reliant
upon the solvency of the counterparty and only 1 percent is invested in the
underlying asset. Consequently derivative instruments or high leverage may be
used to try to juice up the returns this small exposure can generate. The
returns on any structured product are therefore dependent in very different
extents on the leveraged performance of both the underlying asset (often an
index, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average) and, far more significantly,
the guarantor’s deposit vehicle. When Lehman Brothers, whose collapse helped
accelerate the global financial crisis, filed for insolvency in September 2008,
investments “guaranteed” by the failed bank, most notably those promoted in the
UK and Singaporean markets, were rendered worthless overnight.
This was hardly an isolated incident. The Profitable Group promoted a “Boron CLS
12.5% return Bond” that ended in tears with reports of litigation in Singapore
from investors unable to recover their capital let alone any return from the
“guaranteed” contracts. Only a few years earlier structured products known as
“precipice bonds” had spectacularly failed due to another risk - that of
leverage - when the markets fell way beyond expectations. These had offered
higher market participation, promising big returns in rising markets, but at a
cost of a punishing downside penalty and little in the way of a safety net if
the markets should fall.
When equity markets fell by almost half from the peak in 2000 to the lows in
2002, leveraged investors bearing a 2 percent drop in their investment for every
1 percent the market declined were virtually wiped out. The Investment
Management Association (IMA), which represents the UK fund management industry,
has for some time been at loggerheads with structured product providers over the
transparency of their plans, saying that the disclosure requirements for
products which compete in the same market as funds need to be similar.
I would argue that it should be much higher; structured products are more
complex and very often investors face a very high transparency risk. Many
Singaporean and UK investors were shocked to find out that what they thought
were safe deposits, akin to fixed term deposits, were in fact high-risk bets
based on the survival of Wall Street’s shakiest banks. The weaker the bank, the
greater its need and the higher the price it will pay for capital. So it is
often the weaker banks that offer the best zero coupon rates. Other dangers
include “guarantees” that are not what they seem to be.
Recent examples of this include:
- “Guarantees” issued by small subsidiaries that may not carry the full faith of
the major institutions.
- “Guarantees” that only cover a small part of the investment value.
- The use of low-cost subordinated instruments, like sub-prime or toxic notes,
rather than an institution’s primary debt structures.
- The use of a remote jurisdiction whose legal structure makes enforcement of
the contracts practically impossible.
The nature of many structured products is that the beginning and end values are
supposedly defined, but there is no investment valuation available for the
period in between. Basically, how can you put a price on something that has no
value?
In short, not only do investors often not understand the risks of what they are
investing into or the contractual nuances but also, in many cases, they have no
idea what it is worth at any given point between the start and the maturity of
the investment.
As a result structured products have become the natural hiding place for every
kind of illiquid or untraded asset whose value is impossible to establish with
any degree of certainty in advance of its expected maturity date such as
forestry products, traded or second-hand life insurance or endowment policies or
litigation funding.
Does this mean that all of these products are a scam? No, not necessarily. But
the risks become much higher when dealing in assets that are difficult to tie
into any referenced valuation. In general, the longer the term of these kinds of
investment, the greater the risks are. Worse still, risks don’t stop there.
Structured products at the current time are either tainted with interest rate
risk or liquidity risk. Interest rate risk relates to the fact that even if the
counterparty remains good for the “guarantee”, the market value of the guarantee
itself can fall dramatically simply because of interest rate fluctuations and
currency exchange rates.
If interest rates increase from today’s record low levels at any point during
the life of the structured product then whatever intermediate value the
guarantee has in the open market will be adversely affected. Assuming rates
remain low now but return to “normal” levels of say 5 percent in five years time
then a 10 year structured product’s “guarantee” would fall in value by around 20
percent at that time - a big hit to take on a “low-risk” investment.
If you have invested in, for example, a USD product with another currency then
the risks are compounded even more.
Financial structuring and engineering has become the tail that is wagging the
dog. The world has been so turned upside down that there are now structured
products available in which banks pay investors a small fee in return for the
investors agreeing to guarantee the future value of the bank’s investments and
assets. The right structured notes on the right terms in relation to the right
assets may have some validity but too many of the structured products that are
currently available suit the product designers and distributors much better than
they suit the investors.
We should not forget that the credit crunch was largely brought on by the
combination of financial engineering and greed which resulted in the failure of
Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies funds which were left
holding the toxic baby when the music stopped on Wall Street’s game of pass the
risky debt parcel.
The current wave of structured products for retail investors now seem to be
trying to pass that risk to individual investors instead while allowing the
banks to continue generating huge fees at our expense. Forewarned is forearmed -
most structured products should be seen as predatory financial instruments,
something that marks a very clear and very present danger on your investment
radar. To beat the bank you have to take some risk. How much is up to you but
the best way to protect yourself against any downside is to remain liquid.
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the
above article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a
result of any actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the
above article. For more information please contact Graham Macdonald on
[email protected] |
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