BANGKOK, Thailand – The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has warned that escalating global trade tensions, particularly tariff policies from the United States and retaliatory measures by other major economies, are likely to have significant impacts on Thailand’s export sector in the second half of the year. The central bank now expects GDP growth in 2025 to fall below 2.5%.
Mr. Sakkapop Panyanukul, Assistant Governor for Monetary Policy at the BoT, said in a media briefing that these trade policies are reshaping the global economic and financial landscape, with long-term structural consequences for Thailand. The impact on the Thai economy will be felt through several key channels.
In the short term, five major export industries—electronics, electrical appliances, machinery, automobiles and parts, and processed agricultural products—are expected to suffer the most. Businesses in these sectors have already begun delaying investment plans due to uncertainty.
The BoT noted that although Thailand’s external stability remains sound, financial markets have become more volatile. The baht has appreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar since April 2, while stock markets and bond yields have moved in line with regional trends. No abnormal transactions from institutional investors have been detected so far.
Export performance is expected to visibly weaken in the second half of 2025, with key export products potentially facing stiffer competition as other countries redirect shipments to the same markets as Thailand or even into Thailand itself. This includes items such as electronic parts, metals, and chemicals.
Additionally, a slowdown in global economic growth—especially among major trading partners—along with falling commodity prices may affect Thailand’s exports and tourism revenues. Weaker global demand could also ease supply-side inflationary pressures.
As for monetary policy, the BoT has not confirmed whether it will adjust the policy interest rate or revise the inflation target at the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on April 30. However, all factors—including energy prices, currency volatility, and inflation outlook—will be taken into account.
The BoT emphasized that the current trade environment requires swift adaptation. In the short term, Thailand must accelerate negotiations with the U.S., strengthen domestic safeguards, and prevent misuse of the Thai market for rerouted exports. In the long run, Thailand should diversify export markets, enhance its supply chains within the region, and restructure the economy to remain competitive in the global value chain. (TNA)
