BANGKOK, Thailand – Thailand’s University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce estimates that flooding from September 25-29 will cause about 12.283 billion baht in economic losses, equivalent to 0.066% of full-year GDP. The Centre for Business and Economic Forecasting said the assessment covers Bangkok and 26 provinces across the Central, Eastern, Northern and Northeastern regions. Estimated losses range from 5.896 billion to 20.635 billion baht, depending on the actual extent of flooding and how quickly disrupted economic activity can recover.
The estimate covers five days of disruption, including the special public holidays on September 28-29 in Bangkok, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani and Samut Prakan. It does not include damage to homes, vehicles, inventories or agricultural production, which will be assessed after floodwaters recede.
Bangkok accounts for 57% of losses
Bangkok is expected to suffer the largest impact at about 7.014 billion baht, or 57% of the total estimated losses. The university attributed the impact to Bangkok’s role as a major economic center, with commerce and services heavily dependent on the movement of consumers and workers.
The surrounding provinces are estimated to suffer another 1.839 billion baht in losses, putting the combined impact on Bangkok and its metropolitan area at about 8.853 billion baht.
Chonburi leads Eastern region losses
The Eastern region is expected to record about 2.976 billion baht in losses, making it the second-largest affected region. Chonburi accounts for about 2.101 billion baht, the highest figure in the region. The assessment noted that flooding began earlier in Chonburi, while Pattaya experienced floodwater approaching one meter in some areas. The province’s reliance on tourism, retail and port logistics has also left businesses particularly exposed to disruptions in travel and transport. Other industrial provinces in the Eastern Economic Corridor have so far seen more localized flooding, with no reports of industrial estates being forced to halt production.
Retail, tourism and services bear the impact
The university said the main economic effects are being transmitted through consumer spending, tourism and urban services. Flooding has reduced spending at shopping centers, retail outlets, restaurants and petrol stations, while disruption to workers’ travel has affected business operations. The two special public holidays also reduced working days across four provinces with a significant share of the national economy.
In the East, flooding in Pattaya and other Chonburi tourist areas has led some visitors to cancel or postpone trips, affecting hotels, restaurants and related services. Daily workers and small businesses face particular difficulties because some lost income cannot be recovered later.
Logistics and distribution have also been affected as flooding on major roads disrupts deliveries to retail outlets in areas including Bang Kapi, Min Buri and Rangsit. Manufacturing has largely faced indirect disruption through worker travel and raw-material transportation rather than direct damage to factories.
Vegetable prices and Chao Phraya rice fields remain concerns
The university has observed higher prices for fresh vegetables, particularly leafy varieties, with prices to be monitored through the October 10-18 Vegetarian Festival. However, it expects any impact on headline inflation to remain limited and temporary.
Agriculture remains a concern in low-lying areas along the Chao Phraya River, including Chainat, Sing Buri, Suphan Buri and Ayutthaya, where water levels are rising as the annual rice crop approaches harvest. The university said the extent of agricultural losses will become clearer after floodwaters recede and field surveys are completed.
The estimated flood damage is equivalent to about 0.06% of full-year GDP and 0.26% of third-quarter GDP. The university said the current impact is not severe enough to change the direction of the economy for the full year, but prolonged flooding into the fourth quarter could add further pressure to economic growth in the second half.
University calls for targeted relief and water management
The Centre for Business and Economic Forecasting proposed three main areas of government action: rapid and targeted assistance for informal workers and small businesses, including debt-payment relief or recovery loans; faster water management in the Chao Phraya lowlands to limit damage to farms and industrial areas; and continued monitoring of prices and supplies of essential goods through the Vegetarian Festival. It also called for investment to improve Bangkok’s drainage system and for faster surveys and compensation for affected agricultural areas.
