Export growth in Q3 likely to slow down

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BANGKOK, 11 July 2011  – Expansion in Thai exports is anticipated to slow down in the third quarter of 2011, according to the Centre for International Trade Studies (CITS) of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. 

CITS Director Aat Pisanwanich reported that the Export Composite Leading Index stood at 100.5 in May, dwindling from 100.7 in the previous month and the lowest in eight months since October 2010, and this could reflect the potential slowdown of the Thai export expansion in the third quarter.

Thai expors in the third quarter are expected to expand by 14.7%, worth 57.4 billion US dollars, which is slower than the growth rate of 15.4% in the second quarter. As for the whole year’s estimate, exports are likely to increase by 13.2-17.3% with a total value of 221-229 billion US dollars.

Mr Aat also pointed out risk factors for the export business in the third quarter to include the persisting global economic fluctuation and the oil price hike.

Regarding the plan to increase the minimum wage to 300 baht per day of the new government, the director said the measure will cause the production capital to rise, and the industries that will be most affected are those producing food, textile, garment and wood products.