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Money matters: A short history of nearly every fiat currency
Part 2
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Since peaking at 121.29 in July 2001, the U.S. Dollar Index
(DXY) depreciated by 33.72% in U.S. dollar terms, reaching a cyclical low of
80.39 in December 2004. However, the move to 80.39 remained above a textbook
triple bottom pattern that formed between 1991-1995, as a series of bullish
divergences formed on the monthly stochastic study. In addition, the valuation
metrics denoted in the monthly studies had been lingering in oversold territory
since late 2002. With a possible retracement magnified by the establishment of a
potential Elliott Wave structure as prices tested the aforementioned triple
bottom, a significant technical development took place in April.
Graph 1
Specifically, the monthly close above the descending channel
top at 84.08 confirmed the valuation concerns and wave counts, by producing a
bullish long term trend reversal for the DXY. From a technical standpoint, price
action indicates that market sentiment has begun to shift in favour of the USD.
This caused us to shift from our long-held bearish technical view of the USD to
bullish.
Graph 2
The bullish trend reversal was also accompanied by a buy
signal on the stochastic study, thereby adding even more credence to the
breakout. Another key fact to note is that this trend reversal actually took
place one month before the political fallout in Europe. As such, the outcome of
the European referenda did not serve as a catalyst for the actual trend reversal
in the DXY, but it provided enough follow through to validate the reversal. (see
graph 1)
With the recent correlation breakdown between gold and the
DXY providing additional reinforcement to the USD, support at 85.68 and 82.00 is
expected to contain pullbacks for an attempt to close above initial resistance
that is located nearby at 90.49. A monthly close above 90.49 would re-affirm our
bullish outlook and project additional gains to our long-term target at 92.50
(the high for 2004), followed by 94.32 (the November 2003 high). Note that 23.6%
retracement of the January 2002-December 2004 decline is located near initial
resistance at 90.00, with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement located just above the
November 2003 high at 95.88. (see graph 2)
Prices will have to close below 81.03 on a monthly basis in
order to neutralize the bullish trend reversal from April.
After reaching a low of 0.8232 in October 2000, EUR/USD
reversed course and rallied to a cyclical high of 1.3663 in late 2004. This move
represented a 39.75% depreciation in the USD over roughly 4 years. However, the
long-term rally in EUR/USD began to show signs of exhaustion in December 2004
when prices formed a double top at 1.3561 on a monthly closing basis.
With the monthly stochastic study producing a series of
bearish divergences after lingering at overbought levels since early 2003, the
probability of a price retracement increased dramatically. While this later
triggered a valuation-driven retracement, the resulting monthly close below the
ascending channel base at 1.2931 in May produced a bearish long-term trend
reversal while simultaneously confirming a terminal 5-wave Elliott Wave
structure. This caused us to shift from our long-held bullish technical view of
EUR/USD to bearish.
Graph 3
Similar to the DXY, the bearish trend reversal was also
accompanied by a sell signal on the stochastic study, thereby increasing support
for a more favourable view of the USD. As this trend reversal took place
simultaneously with the political fallout in Europe and the decoupling of the
positive correlation between EUR/USD and gold prices, evidence began to appear
that gold was serving as an alternative to the USD. (see graph 3)
With political uncertainly set to continue to weigh on
EUR/USD over the short-term, the bearish long-term channel breakout indicates
that corrections to resistance at 1.2462 and 1.2743 should attract selling
pressure for an attempt to test the double bottom from 2004 at 1.1762, which
serves as our primary price target. A monthly close below this level would
project additional losses toward secondary support at 1.1536 and 1.1383. Note
that 23.6% retracement of the October 2000-December 2004 advance at 1.2381 has
already been exceeded, with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement conveniently located
just above our secondary support level at 1.1588.
Prices will have to close above 1.3056 on a monthly basis in
order to nullify our bearish long-term view.
Continued next week...
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The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be
reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept
any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any
responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not
taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please
contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: What makes a prize winner?
by Harry Flashman
One of the regular readers of this column wrote in to
ask just what makes a “good” photo, so I thought I would go back to
the days when I was a judge at amateur photography club competitions. And
a thankless task it was too! You make one person in 50 very happy and
alienate 49. Turn down all offers of being a judge.
 There
are many ways of marking a photo competition entry, and some judges have
separate scoring columns, something like wine judges. They look at and
give points for composition, sharpness, appropriateness of subject matter,
the zone system, tonal values and so it goes on. Very technical, very
demanding and very time consuming. And not all that accurate, as I have
often seen judges retrospectively awarding or removing points because in
the end picture number 43 “looks” better than picture number 27 which
somehow got more marks!
Judging photographs is like judging wine - very
subjective, forget the objectivity! When I judge a photograph, the initial
impact is what is important. Does the photograph leap off the wall, or
does it hang there limp like last year’s calendar?
After the initial impact, I then look to see how the
impact was achieved. Was it through colour, or contrast, or subject
matter, or cropping or design? And then, was that impact done in a
technically correct manner?
Many amateur photographers also think that if the
judges are going to like a photograph of a fungus, they will be twice as
impressed with two fungus photographs, and three fungus photographs must
surely get them a gold medal! For some reason known only to amateur
photography clubs, these entries are always entitled Fungi I, Fungi II and
Fungi III.
Probably the most important attribute to any photograph
is for the judge to immediately work out what the shot is about. Who or
what is the “hero”? It really has to jump out at you, which gets us
back to what I call the First Rule of Photography, which is to walk
several meters closer before you pop the shutter.
The other factor that will detract from the impact is
fussy backgrounds that distract the eye from the central subject. Even
fungi! Always be aware of backgrounds and try to select some better ones,
or move the subjects, to make a more pleasing result. Good photographs do
not happen. Good photographs are made! I might call that the Second Rule
of Photography.
It is only at this stage that I begin to look at the
technical details. Is the shot in focus? Is the horizon horizontal? Is the
print processed sharply with good colour rendition?
I should have mentioned that the size and framing is
important too. No judge at a photo comp is going to struggle to squint at
a 6x4 print, no matter how good it is in other respects. The size you get
back from your friendly photo shop is related, in most instances, to the
size of a 35 mm negative. The 6x4 print is very roughly of the same
proportions as the 35 mm negative, so what you see on the negative can be
reproduced on the photographic paper. This is great in theory, but does
not necessarily correspond to the subject you want to photograph. Not
everything, or everyone, fits neatly into a 6x4 format. Enlarge (and crop
where necessary) to around an 8R size (10x8) at least; however, do not go
too big, or your print will tend to lose sharpness and definition, and the
colours will tend to lose their intensity.
A simple frame should also be used, to keep the main
feature being the (hopefully) prize winning photograph. Gilt carved heavy
wooden frames take away from the impact, not otherwise.
So what really does make that prize winner? In a word, it all comes
down to impact. If you have a shot that, in your opinion, has the power to
jump off the wall, get it blown up to an 8R, simply framed and hang it in
your home. As I mentioned at the outset, the end result is subjective, so
your opinion is just as important as mine. Just don’t shoot fungi!
Modern Medicine: Is depression going up?
by Dr. Iain Corness, ConsultantUnfortunately,
when you look at writing something about depression, it can be depressing,
all on its own! Depression is unfortunately an integral part of life and
living, and there cannot be many people who can say they have never been
depressed in their lifetime. Does this mean we are all mentally disturbed?
Fortunately, no!
Whilst we all sail between depression and elation (which
we medico’s call Euphoria, just to be different), it is only when the mood
stays down in the depths that it becomes a problem. The (relative) highs and
lows are just part of the normal range. When your cat dies you feel sad, and
when you win 10,000 baht you feel great. These are “normal”.
However, the extremes of these moods do exist in the
community, and are very prevalent. When we begin to look at the various
incidence rates the whole situation can become quite interesting. Did you
know, for example, that women get depressed twice as much as men, but the
suicide rate for men is five times that for women? Did you also know that
the World Health Organization (WHO) is predicting that by the year 2020
depression will be the major contributing factor to the burden of disease in
the developing world (and that could be us, if the baht stabilizes and all
these Free Trade Agreements work)!
Other interesting facts emerge from the world-wide study
of depression. In women, the highest rates of depression occur in the 18-24
year age group, while in men it peaks in the 35-44 year age group. Men
really are from Mars and Women are from Venus perhaps?
Of course, the statisticians have managed to come up with
other associations, which may or may not be relevant. Such as the statistic
that 50 percent of people with depression also suffer from some physical
problem or illness. For me, it is a case of the chicken and the egg. Which
came first? Are these people depressed because they have an illness or does
the depression make them more prone to illness? The answer is probably a bit
of both. For example, the risk of Ischaemic Heart Disease (Angina and the
like) is three times greater in men diagnosed as having depression, and it
has also been found that depression is present in 45 percent of patients
admitted to hospital with a heart attack.
So what kind of person gets depression? The personality
profile includes those who are “worriers”, perfectionists, shy and
socially anxious, and those with low self esteem. It also includes people
with low thyroid function, infectious diseases, cerebral (brain) blood
vessel disease through diabetes of increased blood pressure, chronic pain
and cigarette smokers.
The apparent differences between women and men may also
be more imagined than real. That females report twice as much depression as
males may be a reflection of the male upbringing, where boys are taught that
it is “weak” to show their emotions, which subsequently results in
under-reporting their symptoms.
So what can be done about this depression epidemic?
Fortunately modern treatment is producing some worthwhile drugs which can
elevate the mood without making the person into a zombie. However,
medication should not be thought of as the only way to go about it. A
pocketful of pills and you are instantly better is not what happens. There
should also be careful psychological assessment and assistance given with
the planning of activities, the sleep cycle and structured problem solving.
Early intervention is important too, so if you are
getting depressed, now might be the time to do something about it.
Learn to Live to Learn: Postcards from Oxford – Part Three
with Andrew Watson
 Nick
Hazell: “Questioning is a good thing”
Still
in Oxford. The weather is still closing in, allowing another opportunity
to spend real time with real people. Nick Hazell is one of those rare
figures who inspire you immediately by their effervescent example. A
senior teacher at Bangkok Patana, he’s genuinely funny, dry as the
Gobi. He’s the kind of guy who will cycle to and from airports.
“Why?” Because he can. He’s fearless and unremitting in his quest
for knowledge and ways of interpreting information. His exam results are
fantastic. If the obsolete world of unquestioning approaches to
education might regard Nick as subversive, then the brave new world of
21st century International
Baccalaureate inspired pedagogy positively embraces him. His students
love him. Nick Hazell is where it’s at.
AW: Why education, Nick?
NH: I ran out of other options.
I wanted to do something professional and intellectually challenging
which involved travel. I set out with international schools in mind. My
first international school was the Overseas School of Colombo. Before
that I spent three years working in schools for the Ministry of
Education in Japan.
AW: What were the other options?
NH: There weren’t any. I worked in a
refrigerator warehouse, drove 7ฝ-ton lorries. I was a van driver
and a motorcycle despatch rider. I once dressed up in a green fluffy
parrot suit and handed out balloons on the street in Sheffield. I had a
proper job for an IT company. I even had a corporate AMEX account, but I
fell out with the management.
AW: Didn’t they like the parrot suit?
NH: Funny.
AW: Has teaching fulfilled your ambition?
NH: Oh, yes. In every way.
AW: You fell out with management in the IT
firm. Why?
NH: Ethics, Andrew. Very important. Throughout
my long undistinguished career, I have realised that it’s very
important to have values when you manage; because you’re managing
people and people are important.
AW: How do you react when others aren’t
ethical, especially if they are your manager?
NH: Depends on the situation. But I’d
probably let them know at some point. Probably by resigning. Actually,
I’d like to follow the advice of Howard Gardner and you’ll remember
this, Andrew – the point he made was this – take time trying to
change things but if you can’t, leave. Go and find somewhere which is
ethical and closer to your own values.
AW: But consider terrorism. If you leave it as
it is, without having changed it, obviously it’ll still be the same.
NH: I wouldn’t look at it in that way. In
fact, my views are quite radical and would probably be regarded as
subversive. I expect that my analysis is different from mainstream
analysis. I’d be interested in getting students to analyse what
terrorism is. What’s that expression? “One man’s terrorist is
another man’s freedom fighter?” I think we are experiencing global
hegemony where one dominant superpower is pursuing policies and acting
out policies, in which terror has been used in the actions pursued. Just
because we have a hegemonic power, I don’t accept that it can set
rules for others to comply with that it doesn’t adhere to itself.
AW: Is there an analogy to be made with
teaching?
NH: Look, I’m talking about values and an
analysis of a contemporary political situation. For instance, some
people might say that Bush, Blair and Sharon are their “axis of
evil” and are just like any other evil despot, like Bin Laden. You
might as well throw Berlusconi in there as well. Oh, and Howard, whilst
we’re at it. But getting back to the context of the school.
International school missions and values basically reflect a western
humanist and ethical relativist position. Personally, I take issue with
that. I don’t want to be an ethical relativist. I want to be an
ethical absolutist. For example, stoning a woman to death in Northern
Nigeria for being raped. I’m not going to tolerate this!
Stoning a woman, who has been raped, for being raped, is not right by
anyone at anytime, any place. I suppose an ethical relativist would have
to allow it as admissible. Actually, I take issue with the word
tolerance as well. I don’t think it’s appropriate or
acceptable either. It conjures up an image of a pluralist society in
which different kinds of people steer clear of each other. In this
sense, tolerance is different from understanding, which is
what we should be teaching. Of course I could be accused of cultural
arrogance in asserting that my set of moral absolutes is what everyone
should be following, which puts me in a bit of a moral dilemma.
AW: So how do you teach?
NH: In my teaching, I say to them, “This is
why”. Sometimes they agree, sometimes they don’t. Whilst exploring
these ideas, they’ll come to understand themselves better and where
their ideas come from and this process of critical analysis will lead
them to change. So for example, a fiercely patriotic American student
might start to question the decisions taken in his name by his
government. But it’s not unpatriotic to question. Questioning is a
good thing … of course, I could be wrong…
[email protected]
Next week: Postcard from Umbria\
 Heart to Heart with Hillary
Hello Hillary,
The plaintiff (sic) letter from Lemonade has touched my soul. (“I am
trying to buy a second-hand car. I don’t have much to spend, but I
want a good one. I have trudged in and out of so many car sales outlets,
I am starting to get depressed. The sales people don’t want to talk to
me and none of them seem to be able to speak English. Don’t they want
to shift the vehicles in their forecourts? Have you any foolproof way to
make sure I don’t buy a lemon? Lemonade.” August 6th) I have a car
parked up in Thailand that he can have. It’s a Corolla, bought new by
myself about 13 years ago and this is accident-free, has been regularly
serviced and hardly driven (65K Km only). It has been parked up at the
home of a Thai friend for many years and looked after by his driver.
If Lemonade can come up with 175K baht it’s his and good luck to him.
He needs to contact me at [email protected] for more information as I am
in UK at present.
Keith B. Bradbury
Dear Keith,
Thank you for responding to Lemonade’s plaintive (not ‘plaintiff’,
Petal, that’s a legal term) letter. If she (it was a she, not a he)
has not managed to get something by now, expect an email. Since this is
being printed in the column, there might even be others reading this who
could be needing a 1992 Corolla. May the fleetest of foot be the winner.
I must admit I never thought I would end up being a car saleslady! Do I
get a commission, Keith?
Dear Hillary,
I think most of the problems that I read about between the farangs and
the local Thai ladies really must just be communication. If the farangs
knew what these women wanted, they would be able to live better than
they do. Do you agree it’s just communication, Hillary? (I won’t
call you “Petal” as you might get upset!)
Jerry
Dear Jerry,
You have got to be joking, Jerry (I won’t call you Petal, as that is
too good a term to be wasted). The ladies that I hear about in these
columns have no problems with communications at all. “Darling, buy me
motorcy so I can go to market and get things for you.” He understands,
and he does. “Darling, buy me house so I have place for you when you
come back.” He understands, and he does. “Darling, buy me gold so I
can give to my mother.” He understands, and he does. Every week there
are outpourings from another broken farang heart, who understood what
was being asked of him, and handed over, despite all the books, articles
and the wisest advice in my columns. Advice given in English, so the lad
from Birmingham cannot claim he didn’t understand the advice either!
These people don’t want to hear about the traps, and that’s what
they are. Traps, and nothing else. They blind themselves and end up
paying the consequences, both in emotional grief and in cleaned out bank
accounts. The ladies communicate very well, Jerry. It is the farangs
that cannot communicate with their own brains that is the problem. They
let another part of their anatomy do the thinking, and it isn’t too
bright either.
Dear Hillary,
Would you like a success story for your column? Remember the song “I
got you babe” (Sunny and Cher) about two people who fall in love and
think love will pay the bills? Well it does not work in the UK or
America or anywhere, as we all know. Two years ago I met a bar girl in
Pattaya who was from Isaan. She was intelligent and very proud of her
family - did not like her work - but as many do, did it for survival
reasons. She went back to her village two months after I met her and has
now her pride back and works in a simple family business and earns less
than 150 baht a day. I send her money every month and visit her village
two times a year - and when I visit I am treated like a family member by
all her family. We intend to get married in one year’s time and I know
you have got to provide for the one you love, no matter where you live
in the world, but the rewards in Thailand are well worth it.
A success Story
Dear A success Story,
Hillary prints success stories, when successes send them in, but the
successful ones are people who are happy in their relationship and do
not need advice from Hillary, so this is one reason why you do not read
them too often. Your point is well taken and should be understood by
everyone who is contemplating entering a relationship anywhere in the
world. Love (alone) does not pay the bills. There is an obligation to
provide and I am very pleased to see that you have accepted that, and
that it is working out for you, but remember too that one couple is not
every couple. And also, you have a little way to go yet, my Petal!
Interesting that you picked on that Sunny and Cher song - remember what
happened to them?
Psychological Perspectives: Some thoughts on internet pornography
by Michael Catalanello,
Ph.D.
The internet has become a mainstay of
contemporary society, a virtually indispensable tool for education and
research. It provides ready access to information, opinions, news,
entertainment, products, services, email, chat, and, of course,
pornography.
In recent years, sexually explicit pictures, literature,
and movies intended primarily for the purpose of eliciting sexual arousal
have become easily downloadable from the internet. The increased
availability of such materials has added a new dimension to the age old
debate about the effects of such material on viewers and societies. The
arguments are familiar.
Religionists sometimes insist that the acts depicted in
pornography are immoral, and that they entice those who view them to harbor
sinful desires or commit immoral or sinful acts. Others avoid the morality
issue by arguing that pornography promotes unhealthy attitudes and behavior
among those who view it regularly or excessively.
Some express concern that pornography, particularly in
its more extreme or violent forms might inspire or promote antisocial
behavior, especially violence against women. Some feminists argue that
whether or not pornography leads to violence, it is inherently degrading to
women, promoting male dominance and a view of women as sex-objects.
The “pornography as catharsis” perspective proposes
that exposure to pornography acts as a “relief valve,” preventing the
deviant acts others suggest it causes. In her web article, “The Porn
Myth,” post-feminist author Naomi Wolf suggests that, far from
inducing men to rape women, pornography makes men less interested in
traditional sex. According to Wolf, “The onslaught of porn is
responsible for deadening male libido in relation to real women, and
leading men to see fewer and fewer women as ‘porn-worthy.’” She
supports this absurd argument with anecdotal evidence of conversations she
claims to have had with “young women” on “college campuses.”
According to Wolf, “…how can a real woman—with
pores and her own breasts and even sexual needs of her own (let alone with
speech that goes beyond “More, more, you big stud!”)—possibly compete
with a cybervision of perfection, downloadable and extinguishable at will,
who comes, so to speak, utterly submissive and tailored to the consumer’s
least specification?” She can’t be serious!
Wolf, in my view, seems to be describing a fetishistic
disorder, in which a person develops an abnormal obsession with an
inanimate object, like shoes or women’s underwear, and becomes incapable
of becoming aroused in the absence of the object, in this case pornographic
materials. Although such cases undoubtedly exist, it is a safe bet that
they are not representative of “a whole generation of men,” as
Wolf suggests.
While Wolf’s analysis seems rather extreme, the
possibility of adverse effects for some consumers of pornography cannot be
automatically discounted. I’m thinking of those whose primary source of
knowledge about sex comes from pornography. Such material can clearly be
misleading.
When my generation was coming of age in the early
‘70s, we admittedly gawked at the nudes in the pages of men’s magazines
like “Playboy” and “Penthouse”, but also had access
to popular, authoritative works like David Ruben’s “Everything You
Always Wanted to Know about Sex,” and Alex Comfort’s “The Joy
of Sex” with all those tasteful illustrations. I wonder if today’s
youth have access to similar resources, or if they get their sex education
instead from watching porn.
Because pornographic sites must compete in an
overcrowded market worth billions, many try to distinguish themselves by
pushing the envelope in depicting extreme or otherwise unconventional sex
acts. As a consequence, young, immature, impressionable, and/or sexually na๏ve
individuals might develop bizarre ideas concerning the prevalence and
acceptability of certain deviant activities in the general population.
The psychological literature on the effects of
pornography at present appears inconclusive. Although some correlational
studies suggest an association between pornography, especially violent
pornography, and a potential for sexual violence, it goes beyond the limits
of this research to suggest that pornography causes such behavior.
Pornography is, after all, only one factor among many that may influence a
person to behave aggressively. Nevertheless, I don’t think we can on the
basis of research rule out the possibility that violent pornography could
have adverse effects on some people. At the very least, it seems neither
flattering, nor beneficial to women.
Because the literature provides no clear answers, it is
easy for unscrupulous or unsophisticated individuals to misrepresent
psychological findings to support their own respective political agendas.
This can result in public confusion and misunderstanding of the issues.
Those who cite scientific research in support of censorship go beyond the
limits of current research. Besides, if history is any indication,
prohibition of commodities that are in demand serves only to increase their
allure, while eroding personal liberty.
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Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his home State of Louisiana, USA, and a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at Asian University,
Chonburi. You may address questions and comments to him at [email protected], or post on his weblog at
http://asianupsych.blogspot.com
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