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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
Can the Past help with the Future? Part 2
Warren Buffett has said, “I do think that piling up more and
more and more external debt and having the rest of the world own more and more
of the United States may create real political instability down the line, and
increases the possibility that demagogues [will] come along and do some very
foolish things.”
With this in mind, without doubt, one of the biggest problems
that seems to infuriate many investors is the inability of brokers and analysts
to accurately predict the markets even when history can, in certain
circumstances, point the way.
The use of regressive analysis, Fibonacci sequences and
historical data can help paint a clear picture of why what just happened has
happened, but it can fail to offer credible and accurate insight into the risks
and returns of future investments.
The ability to accurately predict future events is one of the
defining characteristics of science. The fact that market analysts fail to do
this suggests that either their model simply does not work or, despite all of
the convoluted data, the profession is really more of an art and that, at the
end of the day, too many brokers and advisors still act on gut instinct - a nice
luxury when you are playing with someone else’s hard earned cash.
As a result too much time and effort seems to be spent on the
reassessment, in hindsight, of major events - the collapse of the sub-prime
market, the fall of Lehman Brothers, etc., - to explain how they all really saw
it coming but for some inexplicable reason forgot to act to prevent losses.
This is little more than a financial parlour trick, a
revisionist sleight of hand that hopes to keep investors parting with their
cash. Nevertheless, I would always be less interested in knowing why investments
lost out in the past so as to see if and how that relates to the present and the
future and what should be done next in terms of sound advice.
A decade ago research by McKinsey & Co, a global business
consultancy, found that analysts had not learned these lessons and “were
typically over-optimistic, slow to revise their forecasts to reflect new
economic conditions, and prone to making increasingly inaccurate forecasts when
economic growth declined.”
The catastrophic events of the recent financial crisis have
done little, if anything, to change this outlook in that the sector is overly
bullish, as a report published earlier this month by McKinsey Quarterly
reveals: “Alas, a recently completed update of our work only reinforces this
view - despite a series of rules and regulations, dating to the last decade,
that were intended to improve the quality of the analysts’ long-term earnings
forecasts, restore investor confidence in them, and prevent conflicts of
interest.”
So just whose advice should you listen too when making an
investment?
Start by picking someone with a proven track record of making
solid investment calls, especially those that have bucked bullish consensus and
either generated profits or protected capital integrity as a result.
Such people may be thin on the ground, but they do exist.
Scott Campbell - an S&P award winning fund manager and CEO of the Guernsey-based
international fund management company MitonOptimal - and his long-term business
affiliate, Martin Gray, have repeatedly hit the nail on the head with
predictions of major market events.
What makes Scott and Martin especially interesting for
locally based investors is their expert knowledge of how to evaluate the
region’s markets and currencies against the bigger picture of global portfolio
allocation. In fact, in recent years, investors have been shocked on numerous
occasions during their trips to Bangkok by their contrarian calls which have,
even more shockingly, turned out to be spot on. One of the reasons for this is
their knowledge of what has gone before.
The price of oil is just one example. With oil in the
doldrums, in January 2007, Scott Campbell told the Bangkok Post “oil will
hit more than $80 a barrel”. By mid-2008, when oil had reached $130 per barrel
and everyone was rushing into black gold enthused by Goldman Sachs’ view that
$200 was in sight, Scott was now heading the other way talking of “air pockets”
- a phase when prices drop. Within weeks the price had started to drop
ultimately falling below $40 per barrel.
In February last year, Scott was back here again (while, in
London, Martin was receiving the accolade from the Sunday Telegraph of
second place in their listing of the top 12 fund managers of the decade) and he
told The Nation that although the situation seemed as difficult as it was
in the 1930s, and that the name of the game had changed to focus on return of
capital - not return on capital - he remained upbeat on Asia, correctly
predicting, months ahead of most observers, that the continent’s economies would
lead the world recovery.
In terms of the money markets, Scott has a similarly
pre-eminent record. In 2007, he called a weakening of the US Dollar and, in June
2008, he called a US Dollar bounce when consensus was that the greenback had
become a banana currency. Then, in February 2009, he again correctly called a
weakening of the US Dollar, before seeing a turning tide again late last year.
He has also pioneered the only global investment portfolio
hedged into Baht and Singapore Dollar as well as the major currencies.
While no-one has the ability to be 100% right all the time,
Scott, Martin and their team have translated their superior analysis into
returns that have consistently out-performed the market. Analysis shows that the
times when MitonOptimal has made thinner returns than the consensus then this is
typically the prelude to a crash. Rather than profiting from the death rattle of
the bull market only to lose all the gains in the blink of an eye, Scott and
Martin have tended to focus on protecting client assets by moving the smart
money to safer havens. Caveat Emptor!
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Fill-in flash and the Big D
 Photography
is really getting easier. Amateurs can now achieve results which were
once the domain of the professional photographer, and fill-in flash is
just one of these. And one reason is the availability of instant
feedback with digital cameras.
One way to pick most amateur shots from professional
ones is by the sparkle in the eyes. The catch-lights just lift and add
life. The additional lighting to the face also gets rid of harsh shadows
and again helps give dynamism to any portrait.
Unfortunately fill-in flash is one of the least
understood concepts in photography. And why do we need fill-in flash in
the first place? Let’s start with taking shots in the bright Thailand
sun at mid-day. It is all very well saying that you should take shots in
the early morning or late afternoon, but many family gatherings are
lunchtime affairs. End result, big black shadows where the eyes are
supposed to be and an appearance of bags under the eyes you could put a
change of clothes in.
The other time you are going to need a flash fill is
when the light (generally the sun) is behind the person you are going to
photograph. The camera sets the exposure for the bright background and
the foreground then comes out so dark you will hardly recognize anyone’s
face.
With both of these shots, what you need is a burst of
flash to fill in the shadows or the underexposed areas of the shot.
Hence the name - fill-in flash!
Even with today’s automatic exposure cameras you must
understand that it doesn’t know what it is that you are photographing.
It doesn’t know that the person’s face in the picture is the most
important item. All the camera’s brain can see is a mixture of bright
lights and dark areas and it will give you an exposure to try and
equalize these out. Unfortunately, in conditions of high contrast in the
tropical sun, or back lit, the camera reaches its limitations and the
end result will be underexposure of the part of the photograph you want.
It’s not the camera’s fault - it just means you have to get smarter.
Fortunately, these days many compacts and SLR’s do
have the fill-in flash mode built in, but many of you do not use it - or
even realize that you have this facility! Did you read the book that
came with the camera? If you have it - then use it! Please do look, the
shots you will get back will be much better than you were getting
before.
Now, for those of you who have an SLR with an
off-camera flash, this last section is for you. The whole secret of
fill-in flash revolves around flash synchronization speed. Some of the
very latest, and expensive cameras will synchronize flash and shutter
speed all the way through to 1/2000th of a second or better, but the
average SLR will probably say that the synch speed is 1/125th or even
only 1/60th and it is this figure which drives the exposure setting.
In practice, what you have to do is put the camera on
shutter priority, let’s say the 1/125th synch speed and then read off
what the resultant aperture setting is when metering the subject’s face.
Let’s imagine the camera meter tells you that it will be f11. Now put
the camera in manual mode and fix the shutter at 1/125th and the
aperture at f11.
Next step is to set the power of the flash gun,
measured in f stops. You do not want the flash to overpower the natural
light, so you set the power to be one or two stops less than the
aperture you have set in the camera. In the example, the camera is set
on f11, so you set the flash on f8 for one stop or f5.6 for two stops.
Take the two shots at the different flash powers with
the instant review on the LCD and decide which effect is best and
practice with this technique for better photographs. You will not be
disappointed.
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Will you get cancer?
Well, if you live long enough, you probably will get some
kind of cancer, somewhere! It is very often a condition of aging. But
remember, “cancer” is a word that everyone has heard, but is not a condition
that everyone understands.
There are many reasons for this, including the fact that
your reaction to ‘carcinogens’ (cancer producing substances) is not
necessarily the same as the reaction of the person sitting next to you.
Individual differences do exist, and may even be inherited (genetic)
influences. This, in part, goes to explain why one person can smoke 80
cigarettes a day for 60 years, while the man next door died at 45 with lung
cancer after smoking only 20 cigarettes a day for the previous 20 years!
So what is a carcinogen, the substances which can
precipitate cancer? Cancer is caused by abnormalities in a cell’s DNA (its
genetic blueprint). Abnormalities may be inherited from parents, or they may
be caused by outside exposures to the body such as chemicals, radiation, or
even infectious agents including viruses.
The difficulties in studying them come from the fact that
carcinogens do not cause cancer in every case, every time. Substances
classified as carcinogens may have different levels of cancer-causing
potential. Some may cause cancer only after prolonged, high levels of
exposure (remember the words of Paracelsus: “Dosage alone determines
poisoning”). And for any particular person, the risk of developing cancer
will depend on many factors, including the length and intensity of exposure
to the carcinogen and the person’s genetic makeup.
So just how do we classify any compound as being a
carcinogen? With difficulty, is the simple answer. The boffins get much of
their data about whether or not something might be carcinogenic from
laboratory (cell culture and animal) studies. However, you have also to
remember that man is not a large rat (even though certain young ladies might
attest differently). It is not possible, on animal studies alone, to pin the
carcinogen rap on any particular compound. It does, however, give us an
indication. Although it isn’t possible to predict with absolute certainty
which substances will be carcinogenic to humans based on animal studies
alone, virtually all known human carcinogens that have been adequately
tested in lab animals produce cancer in these animals.
Another problem comes from the fact that most studies of
potential carcinogens in lab animals expose the animals to doses that are
far higher than common human exposures. For most carcinogens, it is assumed
that those that cause cancer at larger doses in animals will also cause
cancer in people. This produces the concept, in some quarters, that it is
reasonable for public health purposes, to assume that lowering human
exposure will reduce risk. Understandable logic, but far from absolute.
Another way to identify carcinogens is through
epidemiologic studies, which look at the factors that might affect the
occurrence of cancer in human populations. Unfortunately, humans do not live
in a controlled environment. People are exposed to numerous substances at
any one time, including those they encounter at work, school, or home; in
the food they eat; and the air they breathe. And it is usually many years
(often decades) between exposure to a carcinogen and the development of
cancer. Therefore, it can be very difficult to single out any particular
exposure as having a definite link to cancer.
The most widely used system for classifying carcinogens
comes from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), which is
part of the World Health Organization (WHO). The IARC has evaluated the
cancer-causing potential of about 900 likely candidates in the last 30
years, placing them into one of the following groups:
Group 1: Carcinogenic to humans
Group 2A: Probably carcinogenic to humans
Group 2B: Possibly carcinogenic to humans
Group 3: Unclassifiable as to carcinogenicity in humans
Group 4: Probably not carcinogenic to humans
There are around 90 carcinogens in Group 1, with most
being referred to by long chemical names such as
1-(2-Chloroethyl)-3-(4-methylcyclohexyl)-1-nitrosourea (Methyl-CCNU;
Semustine); however, there are ones you will recognize like solar radiation,
alcoholic beverages, analgesic mixtures containing phenacetin, salted fish
(Chinese-style) and tobacco smoke.
The way to go, in the short term, is moderation in all
things!
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
Each day I go to the local shopping center for a bite to eat.
Recently I noticed a rather nice looking girl always sitting at the same table
having lunch. She doesn’t seem to have anybody with her. Is it OK just to walk
up and start talking to her? She doesn’t look like a street walker or anything
like that, so I’d like to get to know her a bit better. With what you hear in
Thailand, I am not wishing to make her think that she is someone cheap or
anything. I’ve only been here three weeks, so I have a lot to learn, I know. By
the way, I’m 19.
Frederick
Dear Frederick,
You are certainly right. You do have a lot to learn, and it wouldn’t matter
where you came from. (As an aside, did you write 9 or 19?) So you want to break
the ice with the lunching lovely. She is sitting at table on her own, so it is
simple. Walk up to her table and say, “Do you mind if I sit here?” In one
question you will find out if (a) she understands English, and (b) if she is
happy for some company. It is that simple, my Petal. If she is happy for your
company, just finish by saying, “I’ll see you tomorrow.” If she is there the
next day, you build up your relationship just like that - slowly and no
pressure. Contact me again in six months when you are ready for step two and
have had your 10th birthday.
Dear Hillary,
I was told that you are never lonely in Thailand and it sure seems that way, but
nobody tells you that you are going to pay for it, and big money too. By the
time you pay the bar to let her out, and multiply by the number of days you will
be around for, you are getting into serious money. Then the girl has got her
hand out for this and that, mobile phone needs replacement, money for Mama,
money here, money there. It really does add up. I think you should be letting
your readers know about these things, Hillary.
John
Dear John,
Do I detect a little financial strain in your letter, my Petal? Nobody said it
was ‘free’. Sure, you are never lonely in Thailand, but you will pay. Compare
that to the western countries where you will be lonely, but if you are not, you
will be paying big money! What you have to understand, John, is that by going to
the bars, you enter the commercial side of the business. The girls are there to
earn money - and they get that money from the punters - that’s you! Go into the
‘pay for company’ end of the society, and what you have described is completely
true. The choice is always yours. I suggest you back out, while your piggy bank
holds together.
Dear Hillary,
I’ve read all the books, listened to the wise advice from the old hands, and
still I get stymied in my attempts to find these elusive “good women” that you
talk about. Just where are they? I don’t see any beating a path to my door, no
matter how open I leave it. Where or what am I supposed to do next?
Big Al
Dear Big Al,
The first thing you have to do is close the door. “Good” girls don’t walk around
the villages at night, looking for open doors. They leave that to the “good
time” girls, and that whole scene is a little doubtful, in all aspects, Big Al.
Finding your soul mate needs you to go to where such creatures hang out - not
waiting by your door, waiting for them to chance by. It is time you got off your
Big A, Petal and worked out where these girls come from, and where you can meet
them in a social scene. One very easy way is to go to parties and BBQ’s put on
by expats married to Thai ladies. Let the hostess know that you don’t have a
partner, but would love to meet a nice Thai lady, and she will let all her
eligible friends know. The next step of course depends upon whether you are
really ready for a relationship yourself, and whether or not you are really a
butterfly. Thai ladies are not going to spend time with a time waster, no matter
how clever or rich you think you are.
Really, Big Al, the dating situation is just like in your
own country. You meet ladies in a social environment, and eventually someone
goes ‘click’ with you (and her)! The trick is in finding the right social
environment. If the environment you inhabit is the bar scene, like John in his
letter this week, then you end up in the same situation as he does. Bar girl,
and paying for the privilege. You won’t find the financial stakes so high
looking for the good ladies, but it will take time and effort (on your part)
before you get to meet Miss Right. In the meantime, I remain here waiting in my
attic, the perennial “Miss Write”.
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in Pattaya
The Last Airbender: US,
Action/ Adventure/ Family/ Fantasy – Generally unfavorable reviews – in
fact on the border to “overwhelming dislike.”
I can’t believe the disappointment this is turning out to
be! I was so looking forward to this, because the source material is
brilliant and powerful and hugely popular; and also because I really
want M. Knight Shyamalan to have another success, and not be just a one
shot director. With this marvelous story and this young boy, I was
hoping for something as truly good as his first film, which also starred
a young boy, The Sixth Sense.
Alas, it’s not to be. I have just seen this (but not in
3D) and I have to agree with the reviews, which are some of the worst in
recent memory. It really is an incomprehensible, ugly mess, with
laughable dialogue, and no joy, and no sense of magic. A part of the
problem might be that at the last minute at the studio’s demand the film
was shortened by 25 minutes, and hastily transformed into 3D by a
post-production process of questionable quality. But I’m afraid that’s
only part of the problem; there are many failures at the basic level of
storytelling and moviemaking.
I am really fond of the source material: the 61-episode
American animated television series on Nickelodeon, titled Avatar:
The Last Airbender. That series, and this film, are set in an
Asian-influenced world of Chinese martial arts and element manipulation,
especially drawing on aspects of traditional Chinese and Japanese
culture, and on Hindu and Buddhist beliefs, beautifully presented. This
hugely successful Emmy Award-winning American television series has been
showing here in Thailand in four marathon sessions each week on
TrueVisions TV, ending this weekend. I’ve been watching the episodes,
and I am hooked! You can easily buy the series, or you can watch the
first two seasons on the Nickelodeon website. They are great for kids to
grow up with.
My recommendation would be to buy the TV series and
bypass the movie.
The story follows the adventures of Aang, a 12-year-old
successor to a long line of Avatars, semi-messianic beings, here played
by 12-year-old Noah Ringer. In the story, Aang puts his childhood ways
aside to use his rare element-manipulation skills to bring peace to a
war-torn fantasy world. Along the way he must wrestle with the immense
question of how to hold on to pacifist ideals in a sometimes violent
world. The film is written, produced, and directed by M. Night Shyamalan,
and is the first of what was to be a trilogy.
Inception: US/ UK, Drama/ Mystery/ Sci-Fi/
Thriller – I’ve seen this film a third time now, and it’s making more
sense all the time, but I still have a ways to go. I think this movie
will stand up to repeated viewings over the years, with more insight
into it each time around. And yes, it is worth the effort. But it’s also
an action flick, with car chases and gunfights, and you can enjoy it on
that level without worrying about the puzzles. Nevertheless, it is full
of puzzlement and mazes, and very challenging on that level. It has
garnered a raft of ecstatic reviews from those attuned to Christopher
Nolan’s brand of mind games, such as his memorable Memento, and
for his fans this is certainly a not-to-be-missed event. Already there
are huge discussions online about just how much of the film is actually
a dream, and wild arguments about whose dream it is. Or if various
different people are dreaming different sections. Starring Leonardo
DiCaprio in another in his string of outstanding state-of-the-art acting
jobs. It’s written, directed, and produced by Christopher Nolan, and he
was given all the money he needed, so it’s just what he wants it to be.
That in itself is remarkable in this day and age. Highly recommended!
Generally favorable reviews. Big C also has a Thai-dubbed
version.
The Sorcerer’s Apprentice: Directed by Jon
Turteltaub (National Treasure 1 & 2). You remember: A sorcerer
leaves his workshop in the hands of his apprentice, who gets into
trouble when the broomstick he’s tasked to do his chores for him somehow
develops a mind of its own. That’s the plot of the segment in Walt
Disney’s Fantasia which is the origin of this movie. Apparently
the idea was Nicolas Cage’s, who wanted to make a feature length movie
based upon the Fantasia segment. The cast consists of Cage as
Balthazar Blake, a sorcerer and computer simulation expert, based on the
magician Yen Sid portrayed in Fantasia; Jay Baruchel as an
average college student who becomes Blake’s apprentice – he is based on
the character played by Mickey Mouse in Fantasia; and Alfred
Molina as an evil magician. Mixed or average reviews. In Thai only at
Big C.
8E88 / Fan Lala: Thai, Comedy – On the eve of his
wedding, a groom is arrested as the assassin of a politician. He claims
to be innocent, but is taken to the dreaded “Zone 8E88” where he will be
induced to tell the truth. A prison comedy, if that’s your thing.
(Has shocking (!?) images of very large-breasted drag queens.)
Not at Major Cineplex; in Thai only at Big C.
Tukky: Thai, Comedy, Romance – Thai fantasy tale
of an ugly princess in a magical land.
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse: US, Fantasy/ Romance/
Thriller – The pack is back again! In this episode, Bella is forced to
choose between her love for Edward (heartthrob Robert Pattinson, a
vampire) and her friendship with Jacob (heartthrob Taylor Lautner,
member of the Quileute Wolfpack) – knowing that her decision has the
potential to ignite the struggle between vampire and wolfpack, and a
tissy fit between fans of each. Mixed or average reviews. Thai-dubbed at
Big C, if still here.
Despicable Me (3D): US, Animation/ Family – I
found it completely delightful! And so did the audience I was in. If you
like animation, don’t miss it. It’s a complete surprise and has a voice
all its own. It’s frequently laugh-out-loud funny, as well as clever,
and filled with memorable characters, all about a super villain, voiced
by Steve Carell, who is planning to steal the moon. Three little orphan
girls challenge his plans. Whatever you do, don’t miss the ending
credits. For a while you will see some of the most fun to be had with
3D, as the minions of the film try out this trick and that. Generally
favorable reviews. At Pattaya Beach only.
Predators: US, Action/ Adventure/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller
– I did enjoy this! I thought it a quite superior film of the
action-adventure type. What really impressed me was the fun the actors
seemed to be having with their characters. I thought the photography was
striking, the mood nicely tense and forbidding, and the music
fascinating! I’m not a particular fan of this sort of film, but I found
it quite entertaining. Mixed or average reviews. Thai-dubbed at Big C.
May have departed.
The Karate Kid: US/ China, Action/ Drama/ Family/
Sport – Even worse than I had imagined. Filmed in Beijing
emphasizing tourism sites, which the Chinese required; turns out that’s
the best part. Generally favorable reviews. Not at Big C, and may have
already left everywhere.
Staying happy in Paradise - the Counseling Corner
The fear of sickness
Richard L. Fellner
If everything goes well for Paul, he enjoys his life.
But then there are the times when anxiety robs his sleep and even during
the day he suffers from the fear of being seriously ill. A headache
could be an indication of a brain tumor; swollen lymph nodes, diarrhea,
or a birthmark could be a reference to cancer; the memory of a
particular sexual adventure raises fear of having been infected with
HIV.
Paul spends lots of time every day examining his body
for suspicious signs and to gather information about possible symptoms.
The Internet turns out to be a diabolical companion: vast amounts of
information are openly available, but sometimes their reliability is
doubtful, or certain contradictions turn up. Doctor visits also provide
only temporary relief: couldn’t the doctor have been wrong or missed
something?
Often people burdened by fears like Paul’s are
intelligent, physically fit and live a very healthy lives. However,
their fears severely constrict the extent to which they can enjoy their
lives: short spells of relief are inevitably followed by the next phase
of panic-like feelings of utmost worry.
When suffering from such fears there is no need to be
ashamed. This form of anxiety has causes that are not the affected
persons’ fault and can be treated with psychotherapeutic methods -
provided that there is a readiness to attend regular counseling sessions
for a certain period. During the treatment new ways of dealing with
these chronic concerns will be developed, relieving the heart from the
heavy cloak of fear.
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Live the happy life you planned! Richard
L. Fellner is head of the Counseling Center Pattaya in Soi
Kopai and offers consultations in English and German
languages after making an appointment at 0854 370 470. |
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