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Money matters
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Snap Shots
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Modern Medicine
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Heart to Heart with Hillary
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Let’s go to the movies
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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
The ups and downs of the world’s currencies
Rampant volatility in currency markets recently surged to a
three-month high. There is little sign of this turbulent trend abating. Such
uncertainty can have a dramatic impact on key economic drivers, as well as
having a crippling effect on the individual finances of expatriates based in
Thailand who are remunerated in weakening western currencies or who have not
bothered to hedge their investments and savings.
While the Greenback and the Euro have slid down the league
table of global currencies over the past eighteen months, the Baht has held its
ground - although it has fallen against other trading partner currencies such as
Canadian and Australian Dollars. This has led senior figures from both the
foreign and Thai business communities to repeatedly call on the central bank to
cause the Baht to weaken in line with other regional currencies. This would help
boost exports by making them cheaper and could provide some solace for the
tourism industry by making Thailand a better value destination.
Currency management is one of two control levers which
central banks use to influence events related to their country’s financial
flows, with the other lever being interest rates. Essentially when one lever is
pulled, the other is free to find its own level in response. Fixing or “pegging”
the currency rate would cause interest rates to fluctuate in response to market
activity. Conversely, if a central bank fixes interest rates, currencies
fluctuate instead.
It is possible for both levers to be pulled at the same time.
However, if the combined levels are set at or become too different from the
market expectations, pressures build up. Typically these end up being released
explosively. A good example of this is the Baht’s valuation in the mid-90s which
failed to fully reflect the requirement for overseas capital, foreign goods and
expensive imports. Capital tended to be imported in hard currency due to
exchange restrictions on the Baht. Foreign investors typically leant in Dollars
and demanded Dollars back because they did not want to hold an overvalued, hard
to trade, artificially priced currency. The problem eventually became
self-fulfilling. Pushing interest rates up into the high teens did nothing to
address the structural problems, merely papering over the cracks and tending to
attract hot money which tried to head for the hills at the first signs of
trouble in 1997.
Global Markets Asia’s John Sheehan recently mooted the idea
of implementing a fixed Baht exchange rate now, on the grounds that we are
currently in the opposite situation to 1997. Today, we have a global currency
system where competitive devaluations are the likely order of the day and fixing
the rate at a defined level lower than the current market rate can stimulate
growth. Ultimately the explosive pressure could lead to revaluation upwards at
some point and meanwhile inflationary pressures may be unleashed but that would
not necessarily be a bad thing right now and could stimulate badly-needed
inflows too. A competitive rate fix could also be very good for Thai exports.
The proposal is not as crazy as it sounds but may be too risky for most
mainstream politicians to consider at this stage.
A key point is that right now both China and the US are
accusing each other of manipulating their currencies for their own ends and the
truth is that, in different ways, they are probably both right. Ultimately, the
Yuan will probably win the battle with the Greenback, though essentially it is a
game of chicken to see who will blink first. Meanwhile, all other currencies
that “play fair” are paying an exorbitant privilege by subsidising the US and
Chinese gross domestic product. Thailand does have alternatives - however
unlikely.
The impact of recent volatility goes beyond economic
management and central bank policy; it also creates huge difficulties for expats
living in Thailand whose finances are built on foreign currencies.
Scott Campbell, three times S&P award-winning CEO of
international portfolio management company MitonOptimal, can claim to have made
more prescient currency calls than anyone on his recent trips to Bangkok. In
2007, he predicted the weakening of the US Dollar. In June 2008, he called a
Dollar bounce when consensus was that the Greenback had become a banana
currency, and in February last year he once again correctly called a weakening
of the Dollar.
His recent take has been that US Dollar was due short term
strength but Asian currencies could prevail in the mid- to long-term once the
various local and global crises are over. Even though currency volatility could
surge going forwards Asian currencies that are not linked to the US Dollar, such
as Singapore Dollar and Baht, are poised to benefit. Amazingly these two
currencies have become a relatively safe haven now, a far cry from events in
1997.
One potential solution to successfully navigate the shifting
sands of the currency market and the profit at the same time is to hedge into
Asian currencies. Scott Campbell has pioneered the only global investment
portfolios available fully hedged into Baht and Singapore Dollars as well as the
major currencies. As with most things in life hedging your bets is a sensible
strategy to adopt, and for the time being the safest bets may be in Asia.
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Cinematography for Dummies
 Rather
than this being written by the newspaper’s still photographer, it should
have been written by Paul Strachan from Pattaya Mail TV, but I’m
sure he will forgive me.
From the outset, I do not claim to be an expert in
shooting video, but there are certain aspects of it that are true for
all types of photography, still or moving. These are almost the basic
building blocks of all photography.
Let us begin with the first very important fact.
Still photography freezes a moment in time, while video photography
tells a moving picture story. Try not to shoot ‘stills’ with a video
camera and your videos will start to look professional immediately. Like
all aspects of good camera-work, you have to think about the end product
before you begin to shoot. For the still photographer it is a case of
looking at the background and then working out the best combination of
shutter speed and aperture. For the video photographer it is a case of
working out the story line and then how to shoot the various elements in
the story.
One of the ways you can pick the first time video
user is the fact that the camera operator spends much time taking shots
of still subjects. Having not made the mental adjustment from still
photography, many minutes are taken up with video of his girlfriend
standing by the front door of the hotel you stayed at in Chiang Mai.
That, Mr. Cameraman, was a ‘still’ shot. With video, you film your wife
checking out at the cashier’s desk, picking up her bags and walking
towards the exit door. Then you rush outside and the next footage is her
coming out of the hotel and hailing a taxi. You have just shot a living
‘story’.
Just as still photographers have photographs in books
and magazines to study, the video photographer has a very ready source
of informative examples to scrutinize. This is called TV! Sit down in
front of the goggle box and see how the pros do it. Start to look
critically at technique. Where was the camera relative to the subject?
Did they zoom in or was it one far shot and another close up to follow?
How many times did the cameraman actually use the inbuilt zoom? You may
be amazed to see how seldom! However, I do recommend that you study
anything but not Thai TV soaps.
One of the common problems for both the video and the
still photographer is low light levels. Filming while the light is too
low produces poor and muddy video because the camera has to do all sorts
of electronic trickery to artificially increase the apparent light
levels. This function is generally called Automatic Gain Control and
while you can continue to shoot, the end result is very disappointing
‘grainy’ video.
Another of the common problems with both types of
camera work is ‘camera shake’. For a still shot you get a ‘soft’ and
blurred image. For a video shoot you get drunken backgrounds, jumping
foregrounds and seasick viewers. Now the still photographer can avoid
this problem by the use of both hands and a tripod as well if necessary,
and guess what, the video cameraman should do the same. Ever seen a pro
video shoot? The camera is mounted on a ‘dolly’, a tripod on wheels and
moved around. Ever watched a news video cameraman? He has the camera
mounted securely on his shoulder and uses two hands to hold it there.
Yet how many times do you see the one handed video approach? Lots!
Focusing. This is a common problem with still cameras
with Auto-Focus (AF), and 99% of video cameras are AF too. The magic eye
in the camera focuses on a spot in the middle of the screen. When you
are filming a couple in front of the Wat Arun, if the magic dot is not
on one of the people, they will end up out of focus and the Wat
perfectly sharp. This is where you may need to use manual over-ride.
Be critical with your work and it will be much more satisfying for
everyone.
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Passive smoking - should we take it passively?
Every so often I return to one of my favorite subjects -
smoking and it effects, and how to stop. Stopping is not an easy task, once
you have become a committed smoker. Stopping requires dedication and
commitment, and I congratulate all people who have given up smoking. You
have done your health profile in the future a great service. While smoking
cigarettes does not mean you will automatically get lung cancer, or other
smoking related illnesses, by becoming a non-smoker does guarantee that your
chances of getting the above conditions are very much less. And before the
cigarette smokers out there start waving their arms (or cudgels), the
evidence is in the arena of public knowledge. Read it. And please do not
mention atmospheric pollution to me when you are happily inhaling cigarette
smoke into your lungs 25 times a day.
However, there is one more aspect of smoking, which I
should mention. That is “passive” smoking. So what exactly is passive
smoking? In essence, it is breathing in other people’s cigarette smoke,
which the scientists break up into two parts - “sidestream” smoke from the
burning tip of the cigarette which the scientists say accounts for 85
percent of the smoke in an enclosed area, and “mainstream” smoke that has
been inhaled and then exhaled from the lungs by the smoker. I usually refer
to this 15 percent as “second-hand smoke”.
The situation associated with passive smoking has been
well investigated by the scientific communities of the world, and the
following information was extracted from the Scientific Committee on Tobacco
and Health (SCOTH) in the UK. For example, is tobacco smoke a simple
compound? No, tobacco smoke contains over 4000 chemicals in the form of
particles and gases. The particulate phase includes tar, nicotine, benzene
and benzo(a)pyrene. The gas phase includes carbon monoxide, ammonia,
dimethylnitrosamine, formaldehyde, hydrogen cyanide and acrolein. It has
been estimated that tobacco smoke contains as many as 60 substances which
cause - or are suspected of causing - cancer. And many irritate the tissues
of the respiratory system. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the
USA has classified environmental tobacco smoke as a class A carcinogen -
ranking it alongside asbestos and arsenic. You don’t need to be an academic
toxicologist to understand that formaldehyde and hydrogen cyanide are hardly
amongst the compounds that are “good” for you!
SCOTH looked at the situation and concluded that passive
smoking can cause eye irritation, headache, cough, sore throat, dizziness
and nausea. Just 30 minutes exposure can be enough to reduce blood flow
through the heart. If your blood supply to the heart is only just sufficient
under normal conditions, this could be enough to tip the scales. More than
slightly worrying! There is also evidence to show that people with asthma
can experience a significant decline in lung function when exposed.
The advantage of well based scientific study is that
large groups of people can be examined and findings collated. When large
exposed groups show a preponderance of any sign or symptom, compared to a
group not exposed, then you can place some credence on the findings. Here
are some of them. Non-smokers who are exposed to passive smoking in the home
have a 25 percent increased risk of heart disease and lung cancer.
Researchers from London’s St. George’s Medical School and the Royal Free
hospital have recently found when you include exposure to passive smoking in
the workplace and public places the risk of coronary heart disease is
increased by 50-60 percent. A major review in 1998 by SCOTH concluded that
passive smoking is a cause of lung cancer and ischemic heart disease in
adult non-smokers, and a cause of respiratory disease, cot death, middle ear
disease and asthmatic attacks in children. Children in smoking households
have a much higher risk of respiratory problems (72 percent) than those
raised in non-smoking households. The UK Government’s Committee on
Carcinogens concluded that environmental tobacco smoke is carcinogenic, and
responsible for several hundred deaths a year in the UK.
I do not need further proof. Do you?
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Hi Hillary,
Keep the bright side of life going - for those of us not
lucky enough to be in Thailand all the time we certainly appreciate the Thai
sunshine you bring to us. My Thai wife and I get over about three times a year
and you’ve got no idea just how much I look forward to it.
It is certainly refreshing to see a Farang / Thai marriage
success story. For the doubters out there - yes, there are very many others who
share in the wonderful experience of being married to a Thai woman. Dare I give
advice? Okay then, but it is the same as for any other prospective long term
union irrespective of nationality - “remember to engage the brain before
slapping the gear stick into top and then pressing the turbo button.” Yes, there
are many differences in culture to overcome and the rules are not quite the
same, “face” was certainly a new concept for me to understand! But a good Thai
woman with some education and a sensible and flexible Farang man who can listen
and try to understand can match just perfectly - it is after all only the fool
and his money that are soon parted, but parting with a little here and there
occasionally to help the family is expected and is not so bad, is it? Not when
you look at the rewards.
Happy
Dear Happy,
I am so glad I can add you and your wife to the ‘happy’ relationships pile, my
Petal. You are correct when you say that there is a certain amount of
flexibility required to overcome the cultural differences, but that comes from
both sides. She has to understand you just as you have to understand her.
Financial assistance for the family is expected in Thailand, but provided this
is kept to within agreed limits there is no problem. In fact, most farang
husbands enjoy taking on the additional responsibilities. I hope you will always
remain “Happy”!
Dear Hillary,
I see motorcyclists riding down the road, riding with one hand and talking on
the telephone. Surely this can’t be inside the law? It is dangerous as well. No
wonder the road toll is so high. Do you know how many are motorcyclists?
Road Sense
Dear Road Sense,
Your letter shouldn’t really be addressed to me, as it is a subject too deep for
the ‘Advice to the Lovelorn’, but since you did send it, I will reply. Sure
there are laws against this, and also riding without a helmet, but as you may
have seen, application of the laws is a little haphazard, to put it mildly. The
road toll is horrendous, and I am told that 80 percent are motorcyclists and 50
percent involve alcohol. How many involve mobile phones I do not know, but there
are more pressing public problems than using a mobile on the move. Take my tip -
don’t ride a motorcycle.
Dear Hillary,
My husband is looking for an old motorcycle to restore, but we live in a condo
and have no place to work on anything like that. Totally impractical as always.
Thank goodness we live on the 10th floor, or he might be tempted to put one in
the elevator. Why don’t grown men grow out of these things? I thought they were
supposed to outgrow Lego before they got to their teens, or is mine just a
trifle retarded?
Mrs. Meccano
Dear Mrs. Meccano,
I don’t know where you got the information that the men folk grow out of these
things. All the ones I know all want to get their hands dirty, and they’re 40
years on from their teens at least. The best idea is to help him find a small
shed somewhere so he can go off there and get out of your hair. You can always
then invite the girls over for a session.
Dear Hillary,
I have heard about golfing widows, but at least golf is played in the daytime.
My problem is that I am turning into a football widow. Football matches seem to
be played at any time of the day (or night) and he is always off to some pub or
other to watch the game. I am not interested in football, or else I’d go with
him, but I am getting lonely left at home. What should I do? Tell him it is
football or me? (I’m afraid he might go for the football.)
Footy Widow
Dear Footy Widow,
If you make life difficult for your football mad mate, then he will go for the
football and it will be an ‘away’ game every night. Men will always take the
easy way out when pushed into a corner. They have no real goals in life, you
see. Before you get right cross and relegated to Left Right Out, I would ask
around to see if any of his football watching mate’s wives would like to come
over for a hen session. Even if you are not interested, a night out at the pub
might also be fun. Let him watch while you gossip with the other women there.
That is much better for everyone, rather than sitting fuming at home, while
plotting how to give your man a red card.
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in Pattaya
The Crazies: US, Mystery/
Sci-Fi/ Thriller – A remake of George Romero’s 1973 film, by director
Breck Eisner, the son of Disney’s Michael Eisner. Definitely not a
Disney movie! What is it? It’s part zombie movie, part apocalyptic
bioterror, part military conspiracy thriller. Reviews say it’s tense,
nicely shot, and uncommonly intelligent. A husband and wife in a small
Midwestern town find themselves battling for survival as their friends
and family descend into madness when a mysterious toxin in the water
supply turns everyone exposed to it into mindless killers and the
authorities leave the uninfected to their certain doom. Rated R in the
US for bloody violence and language; 18+ in Thailand. Mixed or average
reviews.
The Shock Labyrinth 3D: Japan, Horror/ Thriller –
A group of teenagers try to understand the sudden return of a friend who
went missing a decade ago. They revisit a haunted house attraction where
“something horrible” happened to them years ago, only for the weirdness
to start again and trap them in the labyrinthine house. The film and its
setting are inspired by the Labyrinth of Horrors attraction in an
amusement park near the base of Mount Fuji – the largest “haunted house”
in the world. Much of the film was shot on location during the park’s
off hours.
Kick-Ass: US/ UK, Action/ Comedy/ Drama – An
unnoticed high school student and comic book fan decides one day to
become a super-hero, even though he has no powers, training, or
meaningful reason to do so. It’s been hailed as a rollicking, virtuoso
comic-book adaptation that fizzes with originality, feisty wit, and an
unexpected degree of heart. With Nicolas Cage, to boot. Rated R in the
US for strong brutal violence throughout, pervasive language, sexual
content, nudity, and some drug use - some involving children. 18+ in
Thailand. Generally favorable reviews.
Remember Me: US, Drama/ Romance – Twilight’s
Robert Pattinson plays a rebellious young man in New York City who has a
strained relationship with his father (Pierce Brosnan) ever since
tragedy separated their family. He didn’t think anyone could possibly
understand what he was going through until the day he met Ally (Emilie
de Ravin) – but she has hidden secrets as well. Mixed or average
reviews. At Major Cineplex only.
Date Night: US, Action/ Comedy/ Romance – In New
York City, a case of mistaken identity turns a bored married couple’s
attempt at a glamorous and romantic evening into something more
thrilling and dangerous. Starring Steve Carell and Tina Fey. Mixed or
average reviews.
9 Wat / Secret Sunday: Thai, Suspense/ Horror – A
young man unwillingly takes a journey to visit nine different temples in
order to clean up his bad karma. He is accompanied by his girlfriend and
a young monk to do the chanting. But during the journey horrifying acts
done in their previous lives reveal themselves, and the more they try to
clean up the bad karma by making merit, the closer they get to “THEM.”
Rated 18+ in Thailand.
Legion: US, Action/ Fantasy/ Horror/ Thriller – In
the first minute, the angel Michael falls to earth and then cuts off his
wings. It’s because God gave him a command that he didn’t want to do.
God, you see, has given up on mankind, while Michael thinks there’s
still hope. The first 40 minutes are terrific – evocative and stylish.
Then I suggest you leave. Here’s how they describe it: “After a
terrifying biblical apocalypse descends upon the world, a group of
strangers stranded in a remote truck stop diner in the US Southwest
unwittingly become humanity’s last line of defense when they discover
the diner’s young waitress is pregnant with the messiah.” With a quite
impressive Paul Bettany. Rated R in the US for strong bloody violence,
and language. 18+ in Thailand. Generally unfavorable reviews.
Thai-dubbed at Big C.
The Princess and the Frog: US, Animation/ Family/
Fantasy/ Musical/ Romance – A fairy tale set in Jazz Age-era New Orleans
and centered on a young girl named Tiana and her fateful kiss with a
frog prince who desperately wants to be human again. I think Walt Disney
has much to atone for in its presentation of blacks over the years,
right from the very beginning in the silent era, and this film pretty
much does the trick. After a few squeamish moments at the start, the old
Disney magic takes over, and you’re treated to classic 2D animation in
the venerable Disney style. A brilliant animated film in the tradition
of the great Disney fairy-tale films. Generally favorable reviews. At
Pattaya Beach only.
Up in the Air: US, Comedy/ Drama/ Romance – Led by
charismatic performances by its three leads, director/ writer Jason
Reitman delivers a smart blend of humor and emotion with just enough
edge to get a nomination for best picture of the year. George Clooney
flies around the US firing people that their bosses are too timid to do
themselves. Rated R in the US for language and some sexual content. 13+
in Thailand. Reviews: Universal acclaim. At Major Cineplex only.
Clash of the Titans: UK/ US, Action/ Adventure/
Fantasy – I didn’t find this film any sillier for our time than
the 1981 Ray Harryhausen adventure starring Laurence Olivier was for its
time. I guess it depends on the mood you’re in. Starring Sam Worthington
(the hero of Avatar) as Perseus, Liam Neeson as Zeus, and Ralph
Fiennes as Hades, and I found it fun to see what these actors did when
let loose on these parts. Generally unfavorable reviews. Shown in both
3D and 2D versions at Pattaya Beach, 2D at Major, and in Thai and 2D at
Big C. Note that the 3D is “converted,” i.e., not originally shot
in 3D.
Green Zone: France/ US/ Spain/ UK, Action/ Drama/
Thriller/ War – Courageous director Paul Greengrass takes on the Bush
and Blair Administrations as he reminds us all, very forcefully, that
there never were “Weapons of Mass Destruction” in Iraq and the
governments knew it, and the whole fiction was created as an excuse to
go to war. Starring Matt Damon as a US Army officer who hunts for the
elusive WMD and finds only an elaborate cover-up. Rated R in the US for
violence and language, 18+ in Thailand. Generally favorable reviews. At
Major Cineplex only.
Saranae Sib Lor: Thai, Adventure/ Comedy – With
Mario Maurer of Love of Siam fame, playing a young man whose
father suspects he’s gay and is sent off on a road trip in an old
10-wheel truck to learn how to become a man. Will that do the trick?
Big Boy: Thai, Comedy/ Drama – A young man
from the country moves to Bangkok, under the premise of taking care of
his ailing grandfather, to pursue his dream of becoming a B-Boy dancer (breakdancer).
It turns out his grandfather at one time pursued dancing himself, but
failed to achieve his dreams.
Noo Kan Pai: Thai, Action/ Drama – The story of
probably the most famous tattoo artist in Thailand, the darling of young
Thai starlets and international stars. Angelina Jolie will get a tattoo
from no one else! They claim his tattoos impart magical powers, and this
is his story. At Big C, Thai only.
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