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Money matters
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Snap Shots
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Modern Medicine
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Heart to Heart with Hillary
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Let’s go to the movies
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Money matters:
John Sheehan
Global Markets Asia
The inevitable demise of Western Democratic Capitalism? Part 4
The bad news
entering 2010
The bad news is that the stability we saw in the latter part
of 2009 is worryingly fragile. Global demand is still dependant upon government
support whilst government generosity has papered over the cracks on an economic
model that has now been proved to be fundamentally flawed. Property prices
continue to fall in more jurisdictions than those that they are rising in,
whilst banks continue to collapse at an alarming rate. Large US banks repaying
government support funds early give an artificially optimistic view of the
banking sector.
John Sheehan, Global Markets Asia
If the temporary effect of manufacturers restocking is
ignored, then most of the global rebound has occurred courtesy of government
such as the Chinese state sponsored credit surge or stimulus prompted
expenditure in the US. The effect of this is to re-boot recovery in emerging
markets whilst on the other hand, staving off a relapse into recession or
depression in the west.
In late 2009 history repeated itself when US Treasury Bills
paid no interest. The last time this occurred was 70 years ago in 1938! When
hard-nosed investors are prepared to lend the US Government money for nothing
just to preserve their capital, it is an unequivocal signal that they are
running scared like a panicked herd with no clear idea of where to run to next.
Nobody really knows what is going to happen next in 2010. The
huge amounts of QE being administered in the US should logically ensure a
gradual weakening of the US dollar for the foreseeable future. However, every
time a shock occurs overseas investors run for cover and rush back into US
Treasuries, which causes an abrupt appreciation of the dollar! This is creating
a false sense of security for government who appear to believe that they are
financially impregnable with the ability to print limitless debt for which there
is infinite demand. Maybe they are right, though history from as far back as the
Roman Empire would suggest otherwise.
Whereas the global market was united in economic growth for
the first time in history during the last decade, the future will be
characterised by continuing divergence like that experienced in 2009. Demand in
the west will remain weak, especially where household debt is excessive and the
banking system is still not functioning properly.
As economies borrow more so they will find it increasingly
difficult and more expensive to borrow additional sums. Big emerging market
economies have the opposite problem. They are at risk to asset bubbles and other
distortions as a result of keeping financial conditions too loose for too long.
In China liquidity is still alarmingly abundant and the
government’s reluctance to appreciate the Yuan is hampering its shift towards
consumption. Loose monetary policy in the west makes it even harder to tighten
even if they wanted to since that would suck in even more speculative foreign
capital.
After a decade of alignment the global economy looks likely
to experience a rocky decade of divergent erratic evolution. In a worst case
scenario, where protectionism spirals out of control and battles over raw
materials and commodities break out, don’t be surprised if something approaching
World War Three erupts!
Can China save
the world?
Looking back to the experiences of the 1930s, the remedy that
worked best for the USA at that time was currency devaluation. In 2010
devaluation is largely pointless as long as the Yuan is linked to the US dollar.
The critically needed free-floating or revaluation of the Yuan against the
dollar looks increasingly unlikely to occur. Not only would China lose huge sums
of money through its US Dollar holdings if it did so, but more importantly would
be seen to lose face by pandering to America’s clamour for revaluation.
Wherever you look the Chinese seem to be holding the trump
cards, provided their economic boiler doesn’t overheat and burst. As a result,
the world seems to be assuming that China will emerge from the shadow of the USA
as the world’s great new superpower of the 21st Century. History teaches us to
take nothing for granted though - one hundred years ago, when the British Empire
was in decline, the two potential emerging superpowers jockeying to take over
the top spot from Britain were Argentina and the USA, and look what happened to
Argentina!
Bearing in mind that no other emerging economy has
experienced such a prolonged period of growth for as long as China, there must
be huge uncertainty over its ability to maintain expansion without inflating a
huge asset bubble that must eventually implode.
Some care must also be taken when comparing Chinese economic
trends and GDP performance, given it is based on investment expenditure, not
output as per western markets. The issue with an expenditure based measure is
that it is more remote from commercial reality, and will be more insulated from
early-warning downturn signals. As a result, when the economy does go south, the
impact is likely to be much more abrupt, like a bolt out of the blue.
Whether the world can move into a sustainable recovery is
dependant upon how well these different challenges are met. Given the evidence
of 2008 and 2009, the likelihood of a cohesive, co-operative or united approach
is nowhere on the agenda. How well will China rebalance its economy? Will the
western economies start fiscal tightening at the optimum moment?
Monetary tightening in the western economies will have a
knock-on effect in the emerging markets, but sadly there is little chance of
this being strategized jointly for optimum benefit. The politicians have so far
shown ineptitude in managing the boom, and a limited one dimensional approach to
the aftermath. Given their general under-qualification and incapacity, they will
continue to get more wrong than right going forwards.
Expect an onslaught of “reg rage”- an over-reaction from
regulators that may blight the financial markets and hinder recovery. In
addition to being excessive and ineffective, new regulations will be politically
driven, like the recent emotional reaction to banker’s bonuses. Given the
technical complications of managing recovery, allied to a backdrop of civil
strife and political difficulty, the future looks bleak. Worst of all the
spectre of record-breaking high unemployment casts a gloomy spell over everyone.
To be continued…
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Flaming Hell!
 Photographing
flames is one of those elusive shots that every photographer tries at
some stage, but the end result can be very disappointing.
The reason for this is simple. When you look at any
source of flame, you are looking at a moving record of the flames, which
gives “flame” some substance. Even the gas ring on the kitchen stove.
However, a photograph is a slice of time, an instantaneous record of
something that was moving, but now caught stopped. This is why the usual
way to take photographs is not suitable for pictures of naked flames.
Of course, I have been asked many times just how do
you take a photograph of naked flames, but that is not naughty pictures
of old girlfriends! Today’s column then encompasses torches, flares,
candles, cooking and the like. There really is no trick to this, other
than a slow shutter speed, and if possible, make the flames the light
source for the photograph.
The shutter speed should be roughly around 1/15th
of a second through to about one second for most “fire” photographs,
because you will find that if you shoot at the usual 1/60th to 1/125th
the flames disappear altogether. This is especially so if you are
shooting at night or indoors and using a flash. The power of the flash
“kills” the light from the flames and the wonderful candle lit shot
turns harsh and stark white instead of the pale amber glow you were
hoping for, and without any indication of a flame anywhere.
Personally, when taking fire at night photos, I set
my flash on f 5.6, the camera also on f 5.6 and the shutter speed around
1/15th of a second. This is enough to show the flames in most
circumstances, without overexposing the rest of the picture. Again this
is a situation where you need to over-ride an automatic camera and set
the controls manually. I am fully aware of the fact that I harp on about
this a great deal, but the “lazy” (automatic) way of photography will
not give you spectacular photographs, and only by experimenting will you
get the kind of results that make people sit up.
In the shot of the fire dance, this was taken at
1/15th and I knew that I was going to get a sudden burst of flames from
the fire totem, so I pre-focused the camera and made sure the flash was
primed and ready. The flash burst took care of recording the dancer’s
image, and the slow shutter speed of 1/15th took care of getting the
flames.
Did I use a tripod at this shutter speed? No, this is
not necessary. The flash burst stops any movement of the man, and slight
movement in the flames helps give a more solid look to the
conflagration. You see, the flash has its output for thousandths of a
second only, so this is why it remains a sharp picture, even at slow
shutter speeds. Mind you, there is still a necessity to keep the camera
as still as possible during the exposure. Don’t tempt fate too much! And
don’t get too close to the fire!
Remember, however, if the flames are the only source
of light (or the main one) then you will need a tripod for exposures
greater than 1/15th of a second, and this is one time when you can set
the camera on “A” for automatic and let it work out the exposure for
you. But this is the only time!
The main principle is to extend (lengthen) the slice
of time during the photograph, which allows the flames to move around,
coalesce, overlay and thus become closer to what the naked eye
perceives, over the period of time watching the flames. In many ways
this is similar to photographing fireworks, and if your camera has a
‘firework’ mode, then it is worth trying that method, if you do not wish
to get involved in running both the flash and the shutter speed on
manual.
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Atmospheric health hazards
I was
asked by a reader from Chiang Mai if I would write about atmospheric health
hazards in this column, and I am happy to oblige. The reader was prompted
to pose the question by the smoke haze which appears annually over the Rose
of the North (and over Chiang Rai and surrounding districts). By the way,
it is not the purpose or scope of this medical article to debate just where
and how the smoke haze comes from.
Does ‘smog’/smoke/haze
affect us? The simple answer is a resounding yes, but like all chemical
exposures, you must not forget the immortal words of Paracelsus
(Theophrastus Phillippus Aureolus Bombastus von Hohenheim - 1493-1541)
paraphrased as, “Dosage alone determines poisoning.” He was a bit of a
heretic, but correctly recognized that many chemicals were poisonous, but it
was how much of the chemical you absorbed that determined whether or not you
were going to be poisoned. After all, arsenic is a known poison, but small
doses were considered to be a tonic, sold as Fowler’s Solution. Because of
the poisonous and carcinogenic nature of arsenic compounds, Fowler’s
solution is certainly dangerous. Documented side effects of treatment with
Fowler’s solution include: cirrhosis of the liver, idiopathic portal
hypertension, urinary bladder cancer and skin cancers. Great tonic!
But back to human
exposure to ‘smog’/smoke/haze. The effects on the human body come from the
exposure through the lungs to the chemical/physical constituents. The lungs
are very efficient at transferring chemicals from outside the body to within
the body.
There is another
variable to be considered, and that is ‘homeostasis’. This is the
physiological ability of the body systems to return themselves to ‘normal’
as far as possible. This is a reparative function, so if the rate of repair
is greater than the rate of destruction, the body appears to be resisting
deleterious effects.
So when we look at
health (or rather ‘sickness’) effects of the exposures we really need to
know which chemicals, in what concentration and over what time period, and
what body systems/organs are involved. For example, the liver has very good
reparative powers, while the brain has very poor reparative powers.
Now to look at
specific human health problems with the atmospheric haze in the north of
Thailand, we need to know the constituents, and fortunately they can be
identified in the main. The ones which are intensely studied are the fine
particles (particulate matter), and these are classified as those smaller
than 10 microns in size and then further classified as those being smaller
than 2.5 microns. (One micron is one millionth of a meter, and a human hair
is between 40-120 microns in diameter.)
Whilst other common
chemical constituents, such as sulfur dioxide and oxides of nitrogen are
gaseous and transfer easily to the blood, the particulate matter has to
physically penetrate the air sacs, so the smaller diameter ones are more
dangerous than the larger ones.
Now remembering the
wonderful ability of homeostasis, unfortunately people with chronic
conditions, the very old and the very young have decreased homeostasis, so
the people most at risk include those with: heart disease, lung disease,
other respiratory conditions (including asthma), and diabetes, as well as
older adults and children, and of course - smokers.
“Legal” limits of
exposure differ between countries, but here are some examples of the
European levels:
Fine particles (PM 2.5) 25 µg/m3
Fine particles (PM 10) 50 µg/m3 (24 hours)
Sulphur dioxide (SO2) 350 µg/m3 (1 hour) and 125 µg/m3 (24 hours)
Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) 200 µg/m3 (1 hour) and 40 µg/m3 (1 year)
So how do you prevent
exposure to these atmospheric pollutants? Unfortunately, you can’t hold
your breath every time you walk outside, and use of a mask may be necessary,
but with particles as small as 2.5 microns, the usual gauze or paper
(surgical) mask is next to useless.
What is required is
firstly to reduce the atmospheric contamination, but this is the realm of
governments, and is not the province of this article. In the meantime, a
correctly fitting N95 mask can assist, but a fence at the top of the cliff
is always much better than the ambulance at the bottom!
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Miss Hillary,
I know you never talk politics. But this throwing of blood in
Bangkok, makes one scared to come to “the land of smiles.” This is just too
much. We are looking at going to Ecuador instead of South East Asia this year.
Fan from US
Delise
Dear Delise from the US,
Without taking any sides, it should be remembered that
80,000 red shirts in the capital whose population is 10 million, does not
represent a high proportion. The vast majority of Bangkok would not even know
there were demonstrations going on, peaceful or otherwise. The other 9,900,020
residents in Bangkok are still smiling.
I note you are considering Ecuador, but I must counsel you
to read the travel warning as published by your government, part of which
states, “Crime in Ecuador continues to occur at a dramatically high rate and is
often violent. American citizens have been victims of crimes, including but not
limited to homicides, armed assaults, kidnappings, robberies, sexual assaults,
and home invasions. American citizens have also been victims of violent crime on
beaches, both at popular tourist destinations and in remote areas.”
We live in troubled times all over our planet, my Petal,
but in comparison the Land of Smiles continues to offer the holidaymaker a
wonderful sojourn. Please drop by if you are ever in this location.
Hi Hillary,
I have being reading your column for several years people
repeatedly complaining about how bad the bar girls are, so I had to write a few
words to you about my experience.
I have being going to Thailand for several years now visiting
all the open bars and all the lovely girls. I would say I am well-informed in
the way business is done in and around the bars. I go with a group of guys up to
14 of us and I would be known as a helicopter I never had a problem with this,
knowing that if you move around there is less chance of you becoming attached to
anyone. Thai people in general are lovely people and a proud, very kind and
religious, I respect this and I am very careful not to offend anyone. This year
I meet a girl from an open bar on beach road her name is Kung I met her on the
first day of my holidays just two weeks ago and she stayed with me until I left,
it was one of the happiest and sadist (sic) times of my life. I am just
50 and she just 32 we hit it off so well I knew I was in trouble the second day.
Looking back I didn’t fall into any trap I meet a girl that I made a connection
with, it could have being anywhere in the world but I never met a person with
such a big heart she had a way about her, when she would smile my whole world
would light up. I am not going into details but she was beautiful in so many
ways intelligent, funny, caring and so much more, she never looked for anything
she was just happy to sit and talk.
Now that I am home reality has set in but I still find myself
thinking about her hoping she is safe and happy. Knowing the reasons why the
girls get into this business really only sinks in when you care for one of them,
it changes the way you look at the whole of Pattaya, a very mixed bag of
feelings. This never happened to me before and I find it strange to deal with.
The point I want to make is wherever you go you can find someone special that
you can make a connection with. I did I think, I will never know for sure, but I
believed every thing she told me, I could see it in her face that it was the
truth. I will not call her any more but I hope I will see her again God willing.
To sum it up be careful when you go to Pattaya but please don’t think that all
the girls are after the one thing, there are a few who still have soft hearts. I
know because she took a piece of my heart.
Sucky, Ireland
Dear Sucky, Ireland,
I do hope you meant “saddest” and not “sadist” (as in
Marquis de Sade)! You certainly did succumb to the charms of the Beach Road
Bar’s Kung. You are correct when you say there “are a few who still have soft
hearts”, but Petal, they are in the minority. No matter what the reason for
their working in a bar (and you are again correct when you call it a
“business”), it does not take long for those girls to look for the easy money -
or otherwise they would be working as a waitress, or check-out girl, or cleaner,
or cook, or taxi driver, or … the list is endless, even for the poorly educated
up-country girls. And the tourist has the purse-strings to the easy money. It is
a well known phrase, but one you should remember, “You can take a girl out of
the bar, but you cannot take the bar out of the girl.” I hope your Kung is as
good as you hope.
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in Pattaya
Clash of the Titans: UK/ US,
Action/ Adventure/ Fantasy – The mortal son of the god Zeus
embarks on a perilous journey to stop the underworld and its minions
from spreading their evil to Earth as well as the heavens. Starring Sam
Worthington as Perseus, Liam Neeson as Zeus, and Ralph Fiennes as Hades.
A remake of a 1981 Ray Harryhausen adventure starring Laurence Olivier,
and likely to be the first chapter in a trilogy based on Greek
mythology. It is one of an increasing number of films being distributed
in 3D — but as a result of the sort of fake 2D to 3D conversion process,
and not originally shot in 3D. (Looks like they’ll be doing the same for
the final two Harry Potter films.)
How to Train Your Dragon: US, Animation – I think
this is a really terrific family film. Set in the mythical world of
burly Vikings and wild dragons, the animated action comedy tells the
story of Hiccup, a Viking teenager who doesn’t exactly fit in with his
tribe’s longstanding tradition of heroic dragon slayers. Hiccup’s world
is turned upside down when he encounters a dragon that challenges him
and his fellow Vikings to see the world from an entirely different point
of view. Generally favorable reviews. Shown in 3D and English at Pattaya
Beach; 2D and Thai-dubbed elsewhere.
Bang Rajan 2: Thai, Action/ War – The sequel to
Bang Rajan, it continues the patriotic legend of a tiny farming
village that fought Burmese invaders despite insurmountable odds and
successfully held off a foreign invasion until the capital at Ayutthaya
could put up a proper defense. It looks as though this episode will be
as ferociously violent and bloody as the original, with even more
buffaloes and mustaches.
Remember Me: US, Drama/ Romance — Explores the act
of mourning as a theme, and how death sometimes reminds us that every
minute of life should be savored. Overall, a gently bittersweet and
affecting portrait. Starring Twilight’s Robert Pattinson, along
with Emilie de Ravin and Pierce Brosnan. Mixed or average reviews. At
Pattaya Beach only.
Valentine’s Day: US, Comedy/ Romance – Critics
have been unkind to this story of Intertwining couples and singles in
Los Angeles as they break-up and make-up from the pressures and
expectations of Valentine’s Day. It’s a huge hit in the US. Directed by
Garry Marshall, with a star-studded ensemble, including Julia Roberts,
Anne Hathaway, Jessica Alba, Jessica Biel, Jennifer Garner, Shirley
MacLaine, Bradley Cooper, Ashton Kutcher, Jamie Foxx, Queen Latifah.
Generally unfavorable reviews.
Nak Prok / Shadow of the Naga: Thai, Action/ Drama
— About a trio of thieves who bury their loot in a Buddhist
temple, then dress as monks in order to retrieve the stolen loot. Its
strong depictions of the thieves robed as Buddhist monks have kept it
out of Thai theaters until now, when the new rating system allows more
controversial scenes and images, if properly rated. 18+ in Thailand.
Alice in Wonderland (3D): US, Adventure/ Family/
Fantasy – Not your usual Alice, because it’s a new story, a riff on the
original, with Alice all grown up as a late teens girl about to be
proposed to. Escaping for a moment from the ditz proposing to her, she
returns to Wonderland to find the strange land now in the hands of a
cruel despot who is making life miserable for everybody. With director
Tim Burton, plus this particular Alice (Misa Wasikowska), plus Johnny
Depp in another of his way-out-there tragicomic performances, plus 3D –
it adds up to an unforgettable, one-of-a-kind movie experience. Mixed or
average reviews. In 3D, and at Pattaya Beach only.
Green Zone: France/ US/ Spain/ UK, Action/ Drama/
Thriller/ War – Courageous director Paul Greengrass takes on the whole
Bush Administration (and the Blair administration too I guess) as he
reminds us all, very forcefully, that there never were “Weapons of Mass
Destruction” in Iraq and the governments knew it, and the whole fiction
was created as an excuse to go to war. Starring Matt Damon as a US Army
officer who hunts for the elusive WMD and finds only an elaborate
cover-up. Rated R in the US for violence and language, 18+ in Thailand.
Generally favorable reviews.
Daybreakers: Australia/ US, Action/ Drama/ Horror/
Sci-Fi/ Thriller – For me, a most excellent and exciting vampire film in
the old school. In the year 2019, a plague has transformed nearly every
human into a vampire. Faced with a dwindling blood supply, the dominant
race plots their survival; meanwhile, a researcher works with a covert
band of vampires on a way to save humankind. But be aware, it’s a true
vampire film, and as such is very bloody indeed, with many gory deaths
and a slew of decapitations, including close-ups of the severed heads
seemingly on the verge of speaking a few final words. Starring Ethan
Hawke, Willem Dafoe, and Sam Neill. Rated R in the US for strong bloody
violence, language, and brief nudity; 18+ in Thailand. At Pattaya Beach
only. Mixed or average reviews.
The Book of Eli: US, Action/ Adventure/ Drama/
Thriller/ Western – Not for everyone, but I found it thoroughly
engrossing. The story revolves around a lone warrior (Denzel Washington)
who must fight to bring society the knowledge that could be the key to
survival. Gary Oldman is great as the despot of a small town who’s
determined to take possession of the book Eli’s guarding. I think Denzel
is terrific! Rated R in the US for some brutal violence and language,
18+ in Thailand. At Pattaya Beach only. Mixed or average reviews.
Solomon Kane: France/ Czech Republic/ UK, Action/
Adventure/ Fantasy – Solomon Kane is a fictional character created by
the pulp-era writer Robert E. Howard. A 17th century Puritan and a
somber-looking man, Solomon Kane wanders the world with no apparent goal
other than to vanquish evil in all its forms. His adventures, published
mostly in the pulp magazine Weird Tales, often took him from
Europe to the jungles of Africa. Generally favorable reviews.
Avatar: US, Action/ Adventure/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller –
A very good film and a truly major technological breakthrough. It’s
exciting and beautiful, and has received near-universal rave reviews
from critics and fans. Only Major Cineplex is showing it now, and in 2D.
Reviews: Universal acclaim. Not to be missed.
The Little Comedian / Ban Chan: Thai, Family/
Comedy – A family comedy troupe harbors a black sheep – a son who
isn’t funny and is constantly upstaged by his filthy-mouthed younger
sister. Comedian Jaturong Mokjok plays the father of the clan.
When in Rome: US, Comedy/ Romance – Rom-com
cliches, but a pair of young, attractive leads. Kristen Bell plays a
young, ambitious New Yorker who is completely unlucky in love. However,
on a whirlwind trip to Rome, she impulsively steals some coins from a
reputed fountain of love, and is then aggressively pursued by a band of
suitors. Generally unfavorable reviews. At Pattaya Beach only.
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