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Money matters
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Snap Shots
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Modern Medicine
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Heart to Heart with Hillary
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Let’s go to the movies
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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
Recovery? Anyway, back in
the real world… (Part 2)
Recently, I wrote an article in the Pattaya Mail which
compared the present day fiscal policies of many Western governments with that
of the Weimar Republic. It is worth revisiting this briefly.
Earlier this year, the UK announced it would put in GBP150 billion of new money
into the economy to get people spending again. As we know, President Obama has
promised a lot more than this. As when the American Democrats got back into
power earlier this year, the German Democratic Socialist government was elected
by vowing to increase wages, improve education, give better healthcare, bring in
a shorter working week and introduce a welfare system. Oh yes, they also had to
carry on paying for the reparations incurred from the First World War (WWI). How
could they do this? There was only one way, print money as fast as possible.
Just so you understand what this can do to a currency, at the start of WWI, one
US Dollar was equivalent to roughly four Marks. Just nine years later there were
one trillion Marks to a US Dollar.
Why am I mentioning this again? As long term readers of this column will know, I
am a great believer in history. As the philosopher Santayana said, “Those who
cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”. The result of what
happened in Germany in the 1920s was hyperinflation. Could this happen in Europe
and America now? No, probably not BUT this does not mean there may not be a
large increase in inflation.
Whilst it is true that the UK and other countries are not having to pay off war
reparations, it is true to say that people in the western world have never
borrowed so much as they have over the last few years. In many cases families
have borrowed money from lenders knowing they have little chance of paying it
back. According to the Asian Development Bank USD50 trillion has had to be wiped
off the value of assets. Now, this is the bit that confuses me: here we are up
to our eyes in debt and the government is trying to get us out of it by creating
… wait for it … more debt! It is not us who will be paying this off, if it can
ever be re-paid, it will not be our children, it will be our grandchildren.
With interest rates so low, the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England have no
room to move. The only option they think they have left is to carry on printing
money. This, in itself, creates a house of cards. The credit rating agency S&P
has said the outlook for the UK is now “negative”. It has also said there is a
chance is may cut the triple A credit rating the UK has always had. This will
make borrowing even more expensive on a governmental scale.
Europac fund manager, Peter Schiff, has stated, “This is pure inflation, Latin
American style. This is hyperinflation. This is Zimbabwe. This is the identical
monetary policy, this is what the Weimar Republic did and we’re going to have
the same result.” I think this is a tad over the top but it has to make us sit
up and take note.
However, the reality of it is that this is what governments want. Well, not
hyperinflation but certainly inflation. They are pouring money into banks,
reduced interest rates to almost zero, buying pension fund bonds and a lot more.
Unfortunately, this points to inflation, so it is not a matter of ‘if’ but
‘when’ it will start.
One thing is for sure, we have not yet seen the worse of this recession.
Remember, the Great Depression started in 1929 but the Dow did not bottom out
until 1932.
So, what to do? At risk of sounding like a broken record, diversification is the
easiest way to avoid trouble. Create a portfolio that has something of
everything. There are still equities out there that will make money just make
sure they are the right ones. For example, Neil Woodford of Invesco Perpetual
said that the rise in price of ‘cyclicals’ was “astonishing”, even more so given
there has been “no tangible sign of any improvement in profitability for many
months now.” So, cyclical shares should be avoided like the plague now but you
can always look at companies that are non-cyclical.
Another type of equity to look at now is those companies that actually do pay
their dividends. But do not look for companies that pay ridiculously high ones
as this is usually an indication they need cash and this is just a way of
attracting lump sums that you may never get back. However, good solid companies
like utilities should be okay. The thing here is that dividends help share price
stability. If the share price does go down it will not probably not dive too
much as the yield will then start to pick up which will attract investors back
to the company.
However, even equities that look good can end up costing you money. If we return
to the Weimar Republic, there was one share index that from 1918 to 1923 went
from 126 Marks to 23,680,000 marks. This looks wonderful until you compare it
with the equivalent in US Dollars. If you take this into account then the gain
actually become a loss of over sixty percent. Equities are a good place for
capital during high inflation but not the only solution.
Cash is usually good and should always be part of a portfolio but when high
inflation is around it is not wise to have too much as it can become almost
worthless due to the printing presses.
Bonds should also be considered but only good corporate ones that pay out
reasonable and reliable dividends.
Property is usually good. I know we said avoid it at the start of this article
but this is only for the next year or so. Anyway, you can always hedge against
property falling and make money that way. The worst of what we will have to
suffer from inflation will not happen until late next year or 2011. If we go
back to the Weimar Republic, the one good thing was that inflation basically got
rid of people’s mortgage debt. However, because almost everyone needed cash they
had to re-mortgage using much worse terms than the original mortgage. Another
kick in the teeth for investors was that the government froze rents so landlords
lost their income from that.
Commodities really come into their own during a high inflation period. They hold
their own better than anything else during a time like this.
People who have to foresight to invest in safe currencies, commodities and
diversify right across the board will do the best in the forthcoming
catastrophe. And that is the real world.
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on
[email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Free art photo project
 How
would you like to be able to photograph some original art? In a country
where ‘copy’ art reigns supreme, there is still an adequate repository
of art ready to be recorded - and that is on the side of busses.
I have written before about personal photo projects as a way to improve
your photographic techniques. Once you start to look at how you can
present a subject photographically, you are on your way to thinking like
a photo pro, and not someone who is just snapping pictures.
I was reminded of this the other day when I was going through some
photos in my collection, and there were all these bus photos. A somewhat
‘stalled’ personal project, I have to admit. Then I looked out the
window and there was this fabulous bus parked outside the Marriott,
covered with hundreds of thousands of baht in artwork. Since I always
keep a camera close to me, after 10 minutes I had what I wanted.
Actually, I have always loved Thai busses. Wonderfully painted, gaudy
bucolic beasts that roar along the highways almost blowing small
vehicles from their paths as they thunder through. I had started the
small photo project of my own, to record some of the incredible
paintings on the sides and tails of these busses. 100,000 baht busses
with million baht paintwork.
However, if you want to begin one of these photo projects, you have to
have a camera with you and ready. This has also been one of the subjects
I have covered before, calling it “Be Prepared” (with apologies to the
Boy Scouts Association), if you save some articles.
To take these shots I used a polarizing filter to decrease reflections
and also bracketed in half stop increments over three exposures. If you
miss your bus shot, by the time you go back, it will have gone, so it is
best to cover all the bases! And it is worthwhile using the polarizer to
richen up the colors.
Some of the artwork on these busses is well worth enlarging and framing.
For example, the fish would make a very pleasant addition in any
children’s room.
Photo projects, as I have said previously, are a good idea to stimulate
your creative self, but think about then expanding your project to
include friends, relatives and acquaintances, you can pool thoughts and
techniques to improve your own results. And the end result could even be
a photo display in one of the more ‘arty’ restaurants around town.
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Dengue Fever - it’s here again
The teenage daughter of a friend of mine has just spent
several days in my hospital. The presenting symptoms included dizziness,
weakness, a high fever and body pains. A quick blood test was in order and
very soon we had the answer - Dengue Fever. Unfortunately, the variant she
had was Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, a potentially fatal condition if ignored.
Last year, there were 180 cases in Northern Thailand and 10 fatalities this
year. That’s more than died from the SARS epidemic in Thailand that had
people cringing in their homes afraid to go out without a gas mask.
So, despite my previous pleas (and those of the Public Health Department),
Dengue Fever and its potentially fatal variant, Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever
(DHF) is still with us. The latest figures (and my friend’s daughter) have
now prompted me to repeat my advice on this subject. If you remember reading
about it before, I apologize, but the subject matter is very important. This
is an important condition, that can be avoided.
However, first you should understand a little more about Dengue. It was
first described in 1780 by a Benjamin Rush in Philadelphia (so it didn’t
start here), when the name Break Bone Fever was applied, with the symptoms
of pain in the bones and rise in temperature. The name “Dengue” came in 1828
during an epidemic in Cuba. The new name was a Spanish attempt at a Swahili
phrase “ki denga pepo” which describes a sudden cramping seizure caused by
an evil spirit! Let me assure you that the local brand of Dengue Fever owes
nothing to spirits, evil, bottled or otherwise.
Like Malaria, the virus is carried by mosquitoes, this time by one called
Aedes aegypti. The virus itself is related to Japanese encephalitis, Murray
Valley encephalitis and Yellow fever, and there are four “serotypes” or
subgroups of it.
The mosquito lays its eggs in water containers, preferring the clean water
found in water tanks and pots, in the saucers under pot plants and even
under the pet’s food dish. Inside discarded car tyres is another favourite
spot. These mosquitoes are not of the adventurous type and feed during the
day and spend their time within 200 meters of their hatchery. Consequently,
the eradication of any local breeding areas becomes very important towards
maintaining your own health, as you can see. Keep your home free from lying
water for a radius of 200 meters and you’re looking good!
Simple Dengue (if you can call it that) has an incubation period of around
four to seven days and then the full blown symptoms of high fever and
headache begin. The headache is usually behind the eyes and is made worse by
eye movement. From there the pains progress to the limbs with acute muscle
pains, which gave it the old name “Break Bone Fever”. Interestingly, some
patients complain of a metallic taste in the mouth. (Please don’t ask - I
have no idea why!)
On the other hand, Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever can certainly be fatal! It
appears that Serotype 2 may be the culprit here, but does not usually
produce DHF unless you have been previously bitten by types 1, 3 or 4. In
addition to the symptoms of Classical Dengue the skin begins to bruise very
easily as the blood haemorrhages into the skin. Children are also more
susceptible to this than adults. This also becomes much more of an emergency
and sometimes ends up being treated in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of your
favourite hospital.
With our ability to treat the viral ailments being very limited, the defence
against the Dengue virus lies in the preventive measures. The other
precautions are to wear long trousers and long sleeved shirts, especially at
sun up and sun down, when the mosquito is at its most ravenous. The other
factor to remember is “D” for Dengue and “D” for DEET. DEET is the magic
ingredient in mosquito repellents, so when you go to buy some, check the
label - if it has DEET, then get it. And then remember to use it!
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
I lived with a Thai girl every day of nearly five years. I found in her in a
bar. She was very beautiful (waaay more beautiful than I) and half my age;
ignorant as a bowling ball, but quite clever actually.
I sent her family money every month, plus occasional other sums, gave her gifts
of gold, went to the village, paid for her brother’s Buddha party … the same old
stuff. I am not made of money. I work here.
During those five years all she ever did was buy clothes and such, eat, talk to
her friends and family on the phone (what about I cannot imagine). I paid for
everything and maintained her entirely. And I was happy to do it.
I got sex from her, sometimes fun/sometimes indifferent companionship; and of
course the silly “I love you” sentiment flowed forth from her about a million
times. That was the deal. It was OK with me. It was very peaceful. We rarely
disagreed about anything.
In those five years I repeatedly offered to send her to school to learn …
whatever she wanted. I offered to set her up in a small business. I had computer
internet connections in our room, to which she never paid the slightest
attention, despite my offer to teach her. She never did a thing. Never went to a
class of any kind. Nothing. I simply couldn’t interest her in anything … but my
wealth … which evidently she thought was far greater than it is.
I tried to encourage her self-esteem, pride and to hold her head up above the
Thai cultural opinion of prostitutes like her. And teach her she could do
better. Deaf ears.
She did learn to speak very good English from me. And I learned to speak Thai
somewhat from her, but only by default; meaning she taught me only by speaking
Thai when she couldn’t find the English words.
When it dawned on her that I was never going to be able to build my house she
left … still as ignorant as a bowling ball (except for her language skill) … and
went back to the go-go bar, where she’s doing very well I think.
The reason I tell this story is that I see the letters in your column from
delusional and disillusioned farang who are seeking relationships and variously
thrilled, confused and disappointed by their romances with Thai women.
I’ve known guys who had Thai wives for 15 years only to find they had a Thai
husband/boyfriends all that time and to whom they lost everything, their money,
their children, you name it. I’ve known guys who have lost more than that in two
weeks. Guys who brought their wife back home where they hated every minute of
life there and wound up back in Thailand. The happiest guys I know only go short
time.
The point is these people are not like us. To them, love, life, ambition,
morality all of it is not the same as it is for us. You will never truly grasp
Thai culture and they will never grasp farang. When they are with a farang they
have two distinct and different lives.
I suppose there are many exceptions to this frustrating reality; but I’m
confident it’s pretty rare with Pattaya bar girls. I just want to caution all
farang to keep that in mind.
I miss her a lot because we spent five years together and I feel very tender
toward her. She misses me not at all and couldn’t care less. That’s the
difference.
John Smith
Dear John,
Your letter saddens me, for many reasons. It is obvious you do “miss her a lot”
and you are trying to get over her by writing your letter. However, you should
have known what sort of a person she was and her background before you began the
five year association. A little time taken before setting up house with anyone
is a good idea - but you didn’t do that, and are happy to place the blame on
her, rather than look at your own part in this human disaster.
You write of education opportunities, offers of being set up in business that
were all ignored - yet you persisted in this relationship which was really going
nowhere, which could offer you nothing more than sex and indifferent
companionship. Why did it last five years? Because you thought all that was
necessary was to supply money. However, you ignored the fact there was perhaps
something more she wanted from the relationship (money or otherwise) and so she
left.
You also make some too sweeping generalizations about Thai women and their
understanding of farang culture. You write “To them, love, life, ambition,
morality all of it is not the same as it is for us.” Be honest my Petal, what do
you and your “happiest guys I know only go short time” show to the Thai girls
about the farang concept of love, life, ambition and morality? Is there a real
difference? I doubt that your “happiest guys” have any real dedication towards
your vaunted farang concepts. The farang marriage vows include “love” and
“honor”, traits which you say the Thai people do not understand. I could just as
easily point out that farang marriages also fail (USA 48 percent), so perhaps
the farangs don’t understand them either?
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
I had a one-issue hiatus
last week while I took care of a little matter of the heart –
specifically a quadruple bypass. Sorry, couldn’t get to my computer.
Now playing in Pattaya
Bruno: US, Comedy – Some people find this hilarious. I found
some of it very funny, but overall this pillorying of prejudice against
gays sickened me; I was not amused. Rated R in the US for pervasive
strong and crude sexual content, graphic nudity and language. Mixed or
average reviews.
Sorority Row: US, Horror/ Thriller – A group of sorority sisters try
to cover up the death of their house-sister after a prank gone wrong.
Rated R in the US for strong bloody violence, language, some sexuality/
nudity and partying. (!) Generally unfavorable reviews.
Whiteout: US, Action/ Thriller – Moribund pacing and an uninspired
plot. Rated R in the US for violence, grisly images, brief strong
language, and some nudity. Generally unfavorable reviews.
G-Force: US, Action/ Adventure/ Family/ Fantasy – A pleasant,
inoffensive animated farce about a team of superspy guinea pigs, with
non-stop manic action. Mixed or average reviews.
District 9: South Africa/ New Zealand, Drama/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller –
Technically brilliant and emotionally wrenching, with all the elements
of a thoroughly entertaining science-fiction classic. Rated R in the US
for bloody violence and pervasive language. Generally favorable
reviews.
Phobia 2 / Haa Phrang: Thai, Horror – Literally “five crossroads,”
this is a five-part horror anthology by five different Thai directors.
It’s a mixed bag as it would have to be, but I’m rather fond of it and I
think it’s well worth checking out if you at all like Thai horror films.
The last time I was with you we talked about the first two sections, and
here are comments on the remaining three.
The third piece is called “Backpackers” and is the fourth pairing of
actor Charlie Trairat and director Songyos Sugmakanan, beginning with
the legendary Fan Chan when Charlie was a very young boy,
continuing with the marvelous coming of age story Dorm, and the
more recent Hormones. Now 16, Charlie is here getting away from
his sweet roles and getting into a darker side of his personality. A
pair of Japanese hitchhikers joins Charlie and the threatening driver of
a 10-wheel truck for a ride down a remote highway. The truck’s contents
start to thump in the back, and it’s soon revealed that the cargo is
human cargo involved in some nightmarish drug smuggling scheme. And the
drug they’re smuggling seems to turn them into zombies!
Next is “Salvage” or “Used Car” in which singer-actress Nicole Theriault
plays the owner of a used car lot who assures her potential customers
that the cars they’re looking at are in perfect shape. The truth is
that some of them have been in gruesome wrecks that have killed their
passengers, and their spirits haven’t left. Late one night the
aggrieved spirits of the dead, all the ghosts that haunt the cars, rise
up against her deceptive ways. This segment is directed by Parkpoom
Wongpoom, half of the pair that wrote and directed Shutter and
Alone.
The other half of the pair responsible for Shutter and Alone,
Banjong Pisanthanakun, directed the fifth and final segment, “In the
End,” a laugh-filled horror parody, and I found it really enjoyable.
It’s a Thai belief that there are ghosts on horror-movie sets, and this
segment plays around with that idea. In this segment, the star of the
well-known horror film Alone, Marsha Wattanapanich, plays a
parody of her role in that film, sort of a diva singer-actress. For me,
the stars of the piece are the four guys from the first Phobia
who went on a camping trip and told ghost stories in their tent at
night. Here they are the crew trying to make the ghost movie. Pretty
funny.
Pandorum: US/ Germany, Horror/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – The story of two
astronauts who awaken in a sleep chamber aboard a seemingly abandoned
spacecraft. They can’t remember anything - who they are, or what their
mission is. Then they realize they are not alone. Rated R in the US
for strong horror violence and language. Generally unfavorable reviews.
The Proposal: US, Comedy/ Drama/ Romance – With Sandra Bullock, Ryan
Reynolds. A pushy boss forces her young assistant to marry her in order
to keep her Visa status in the U.S. and avoid deportation to Canada.
Mixed or average reviews
Gamer: US, Action/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – I found this an absolutely
repellent and repugnant film, and I think it’s just too brutalizing to
exist. Rated R in the US for frenetic sequences of strong brutal
violence throughout, sexual content, nudity, and language. Generally
unfavorable reviews.
Dreamaholic / Fun Kod Kod / The Begin: Thai, Drama/ Romance – A
cute-looking and sentimental yarn about a crinkly-eyed street performer
who somehow develops a relationship with a popular and attractive
actress perhaps half his age.
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