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Money matters

Snap Shots

Modern Medicine

Learn to Live to Learn

Heart to Heart with Hillary

PC Blues - News and Views

Psychological Perspectives

Money matters: Fallout from the US election

Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.

In the aftermath of George W. Bush being declared the victor in one of the closest battles for the US presidency in the last century, the markets have generally responded positively to the news, as it was expected they would. Better the devil you know, even if some would argue that phrase applies more literally than ever right now!

Passions were running very high in the US throughout the campaign. In New York and other large cities rife with Kerry supporters, the mood on the morning after the election was gloomy and depressed. America has been split in two and the divisions are very wide, as the city of Washington cast 90% of its votes for Kerry and just 9% for Bush, while the state of Utah went 72% for Bush. Only 4% of those who voted for Bush professed to respect the other candidate, and only 6% of those who voted for Kerry respected Bush. Bad blood is everywhere.

No longer is there a centre in American politics, and compromise between the two sides will be very difficult. It’s been said that a successful democracy needs many in the role of honourable opposition to function smoothly, but right now there don’t seem to be many to fill the position.

As asset managers our jobs are made easier by the Bush victory. We read a great deal prior to the election penned by much respected economists. This essentially said that the US economy was a ticking time bomb that couldn’t be defused and it made little difference who won. We accepted that and yet we didn’t. Kerry certainly wouldn’t have been able to solve the problems facing the US economy, but he might have been able to apply some mild palliative. Then again he might not. However, Bush’s victory means that we really don’t have to spend any time figuring out what changes will come from Washington in the months ahead. Steady as she goes.

Regardless of what happens in the world, Bush is not going to change. In the economic and financial area, Bush has followed his ideas about as far as he can because the government deficit is historically large and the tax structure allows little scope for further cuts (to the prudent it allows no scope at all, but that was equally true ahead of the latest round of cuts).

Any deterioration in the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan, any further activity from the various terrorist groups, any increase in tensions with other states regarded by Washington as being “rogue” will dominate the administration’s international agenda in 2005.

All this will occur against a backdrop of declining GDP growth and increasing stress in the financial markets as effect of the earlier tax cuts and low interest rates becomes increasingly weaker and fades in the memory. With the deficit so large and interest rates so low, there won’t be any easy alternatives left and the economy will be at risk.

Both the occupations in Afghanistan and Iraq and the economy at home have seen better times and will end up in trouble, probably sooner rather than later. The new administration will have its hands full.

Who really wants to be president in these troubled times? John Kerry’s status in history may have received its greatest fillip this week thanks to the extra 4 million voters who preferred Dubya. Winning this election might have been as catastrophic for Kerry as winning in 1929 was for Herbert Hoover.

One of our preferred currency analysts, John Taylor of FX Concepts has even compared Kerry’s defeat to Brer Fox, in the old folktale of the American South. He thinks that John Kerry has tricked George Bush, playing the part of the not particularly bright Brer Rabbit, into picking up the Tar Baby, which is stuck on the administration for the next four years. While we don’t think that the defeat was quite so premeditated, we agree that it’s a poisoned chalice.

Against the quiet backdrop of the political manoeuvrings the markets continue to whirr away noisily. Nowhere being noisier than the foreign exchange markets right now. There is a strong desire within the US government to see the yen strengthen and occupy a level that is more compatible with its powerful export performance, but there are two problems standing in the way of this American wish.

The first is a geopolitical reality. China’s tremendous export machine is tied to the US dollar at a fixed rate and any strengthening of the yen would harm the Japanese export sector. This situation has kept the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance in the market for the past two years, if at times overtly. Even then, Japanese firms have lost competitive advantage since January 2002, when the yen began to rally against the dollar. If China refuses to move, the Japanese are likely to do whatever they actually can to try to strenuously resist any strengthening of the yen.

The long term impact of intervention might be debatable but a more fundamental reason why the yen will not appreciate much longer is the embedded relationship between the cycles of the yen, the US equity market, and the US economy - not a statistical co-incidence but a reflection of the impact of the world’s biggest consumer on an economy dominated by exports.

This has caused the yen to become a pro-cyclical currency. This has developed in such a way that the lead times within these relationships have become fairly fixed.

We can now see that the value of the yen leads the S&P Index by about 9 months, and the S&P leads the US economy by about 6 months.

As a result, the value of the yen is usually more than one year ahead of the economy. Because the cycles are four years long, half the time, the trends do not match. For instance, the yen peaked at the end of 1999, equities peaked in August 2000, and the US economy followed in early 2001.

If the yen topped last March, then this would suggest that the S&P top will happen by January, and the economy should drop later next year. The yen may then face a year of decline in 2005 with its weakness increasing as the year progresses, although we would be looking for the Japanese economy and currency to break out of the cycle by stimulating domestic demand to replace the exports to Wal-Mart, etc.

The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]


Snap Shots: Take the camera on holiday

by Harry Flashman

One of the last items to be flung in the suitcase when you are packing for your holidays is the camera. I believe it should be the first, as much of the enjoyment from holidays comes later in recalling the fun times with family and friends. And what better way than by snapshots.

The old and the new in Chiang Mai

Let’s look at a few specific examples of “how to” when you are looking to record those “once in a lifetime” events you will see while on vacation.

Every city, town or village anywhere has its parades, but have you ever tried to record a parade? It is actually very difficult. The eye sees a long procession of musicians, marchers, flag wavers and the like as they pass by, but the camera sees only one thin slice of the action about 1/60th of a second long!

There is only one way to get parades, and that’s get up high and preferably use a long lens. By shooting down the oncoming procession you will get several squads of musicians, marchers, etc., all on the one frame of film. By using the telephoto lens you ‘compress’ the action and get even more in the one negative. Honestly, if you can’t get up high don’t take parades. You will be disappointed with all ground level shots.

All tourist towns have their nightlife. Lots of lights, neon signs and flood-lit fountains are the norm for this type of photograph. The secret here is a wide angle lens with an aperture down around f 1.8 and some “fast” film. This is the time to get some 800 ASA film, or 400 ASA at least. The other trick is not to use your flash. Let the attractions provide the illumination, rather than blitzing it with flash bursts. If you try and take neon light using flash you will totally wash out the neon and again get very disappointing results.

One of the more challenging travel situations is the winter snow holiday or the summer beach holiday. The problems are the same. The camera auto exposure meter will try and record the white snow or yellow beaches as ‘grey’. The best way here is to use a Polarizing filter and open up the aperture by one stop more than the auto thinks should be used. You are potting more light onto the film and ‘blowing out’ the snow or the sand. The Polarizer will also give you a blue sky to contrast with the snow or sand. The time of day is also important. Shoot early morning or late afternoon when the sun’s rays are skimming across the snow or sand and the tracks and ridges in the environment will show up as shadows.

Capturing falling snow is another difficult winter holiday challenge. If the shutter speed is too fast you will not really get the full concept of the snow storm. The secret here is to use a slow shutter speed and let the snow produce white streaks across the photograph. Round about 1/30th of a second works well and you can even use the on camera flash as well to add some bright highlights.

Some of you will be exponents of the wilderness type holiday, trekking and camping and taking in the vast grandeur of breathtaking natural wonders. The secret here is a wide angle lens, look for low viewpoints and use slow film, plus a tripod if you can. The idea here is to set the lens at around f 16 or f 22 to maximize the depth of field. This in turn and the slow film, will require longer exposures - hence the tripod. Shooting in this way will give you maximum detail in the shot, maximum content and theatre. Finally, shoot early morning or late afternoon as well to get the dramatic shadow effects and really give the impact to the Grand Canyon!

So you can see, whilst you can get holiday “snaps” with the trusty point and shooter, to really get the really great holiday photographs you will need a choice of lenses, a choice of film and a tripod.


Modern Medicine: Slashing one’s wrists

by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant

Whilst slashing one’s wrists is a commonly used way of attempting suicide (though not often successful), slashing a wrist can produce a great deal of bleeding, enough to make onlookers feel very weak, as well as yourself!

However, if you have cut yourself severely enough and you lose enough blood, you can indeed die. It won’t be instantaneous, so you do have plenty of time to do something about it, even by yourself if nobody else is around. The thing to do is to keep your head, when everyone else is losing theirs. (That was a famous quote during the French Revolution!)

People still faint at the sight of blood. In fact, in my class in medical school we had such a chap who managed to last till third year but kept on fainting, even when we were being shown slides of anything a little gory. He certainly had picked the wrong course of study.

‘Blood’ has no ‘magical’ properties. It is mainly a water solution with oxygen bearing red cells and disease fighting white blood cells floating in it. Unfortunately, we do need blood to circulate the red cells or otherwise the tissues starve of oxygen and they die, so we die. Simple.

Our blood circulation system is also very simple. It is really just a closed circuit pumping system - the heart pumps the blood through the arteries which get progressively smaller then hook up with tiny veins that get larger and larger and return the blood to the pump (the heart).

Because it is a closed system, you do not get to see this blood rushing around - until we open up an artery or a vein. Then you can see lots of it! The common way this occurs is when we accidentally cut ourselves, which we medical folk call “lacerations”. No matter how it happened, if you cut open a vein or artery, the heart pump keeps on pumping and the blood keeps on coming out.

So how do you know if you’ve cut an artery or a vein? If it is a vein, the blood pumping at a fairly low pressure, so you get a nice steady ooze at the site of the cut. But if it is an artery that has been cut, then these are high pressure pipes and the blood will spurt in rhythmic pulses, in time with your heart beat.

From the point of view of stopping the blood loss (which we call haemorrhage, or hemorrhage if you come from the other side of the Atlantic Ocean), it does not really matter whether the blood loss is venous or arterial. Even arterial blood is only at 3 pounds per square inch pressure and you can stop the flow with your thumb. You can stop 99 percent of all haemorrhages by putting a piece of cloth (a handkerchief, rag, torn piece of shirt, etc.) over the site of the wound and applying firm pressure with your hand.

Some parts of the body have more blood vessels than others, so these are the areas that really bleed. The scalp, the ear lobe and around the mouth are classic sites. Fortunately the treatment is always the same. Cover and apply direct pressure and the flow will cease. Of course, you will still need to see the doctor for the closing of the laceration - but you will not bleed to death in the meantime!

Elevate the limb, apply direct pressure over the wound and take it and yourself to the trauma centre!


Learn to Live to Learn: The case for ‘A’ levels

by George Benedikt

About a month ago, I described the British based ‘A’ level system as ‘unfairly maligned in some quarters as antique but nonetheless typically slow to adapt’. It’s time to examine that statement in a self-critical way.

Although personally I was not a product of an ‘A’ level system, the more I come to learn about the courses and the access it provides to the top universities in the world, the more I come to revere it.

From a teaching, parenting and student perspective, not only do ‘A’ levels make sense, but they can stand their own ground very nicely thank you, when compared to the IB diploma and ‘AP’ (Advanced Placement Programme).

By the way, dealing as I have done with IB diploma first, ‘A’ levels second and ‘AP’ last, by no means infers a personal preference. Actually, as a high school student I feel I was fortunate to have studied the ‘European Baccalaureate’ which, as its name suggests, is routed in Europe and has similarities to all three pre-university programmes I am examining. But it is not studied in our region, and so I don’t propose to venture into that which is not relevant to us here in the region.

The great thing about ‘A’ levels is that they are parent and student friendly. This column aims to provide parents and students with relevant information in a concise, critical and compassionate format that can assist them when it comes to making critical choices in education and ‘A’ levels really fits snugly into the category of ‘making relevant and informed choices’.

To begin with, let’s focus on three areas of ‘A’ levels – The Appropriate, The Application and The Admission.

The Appropriate

In Chonburi or in Rayong or Bangkok for that matter, if you’re a parent or a student looking at the variety of pre-university offerings, then ‘A’ levels can make real sense. They allow you to focus on specific areas of interest, persuasion and excellence at a reasonably mature age – usually ‘A’ level students are 16 when they begin their two year programme.

For many students (and ‘A’ level advocates would point to this as a significant advantage over courses like the IB diploma) the opportunity to study their favourite subjects intensively is something that they have been waiting for since age 11.

No longer are students forced to study subjects they feel uncomfortable with, no longer are students with no inclination towards or propensity for a second language forced to study a subject that makes them uncomfortable and unhappy. No longer are students forced to engage in breadth of study at the expense of depth. No longer do students have to maintain pretence towards some kind of ideological philosophy which maintains a bias towards liberal or socialist politics.

If anything, ‘A’ levels are unashamedly student, parent and market-orientated. If they had a slogan other than being ‘proof of academic ability’’, then maybe it would be something like ‘we do what we say’.

Let’s face it. At aged 16, do you really need to concern yourself with global politics? Is it a good idea to spend all your waking hours ‘learning’? Why should you devote the best years of your life to helping other people?

Surely this is the age of hedonism, of personal direction and not to espouse selfishness by any means, is it not an age when we all enjoyed ourselves?

Surely kids 16-18, studying a pre-university course, should be encouraged to have freedom and through this, self-expression? You can’t teach this can you? You have to experience it!

Getting into university is hard enough and surely the biggest argument in favour of ‘A’ levels is that they get your kid where they want to be, where you want them to be, it costs less and they are not completely overwhelmed by additional and conditional aspects to the course. You take three, four, five ‘A’ levels and you go where you want to university.

The Application

If the major difficulty with the IB diploma can be said to be maintaining standards in implementation, then ‘A’ levels are the opposite. Easy to run, free if you already teach IGCSE and familiar (if a school has British staff) they represent a natural progression and obvious option for ‘British’ or ‘British-style’ schools who prefer not to have anything to do with things that are ‘not-British’ (whatever that is!).

But does this mean that ‘A’ levels are in some way incompatible with ‘international’ schools? No more so than IB is incompatible with schools declaring a nationalist teaching orientation.

Teachers recruited at the ‘A’ level end of the school are expected to have experience of teaching the course and this represents a significant advantage over IB, which requires training of all staff, which is funded from you, the parents’ pocket.

Nonetheless, ‘A’ levels have received criticism in some quarters for apparently attempting to ‘tack-on’ aspects of current educational ‘fads’ such as ‘international understanding’ or breadth of study (for example through the one year ‘AS’ level).

The Admission

‘A’ levels are particularly useful if students want to go to university in any country that experienced British Imperialism and many more besides. They are currency. They are the educational pound against which many of their competitors are rated.

In this sense the IB diploma is very much the euro and you might rightly think that in this regard ‘A’ levels have the advantage. Students from around the world have benefited from an almost global tertiary acknowledgement of the quality of the programme and just as with the ‘AP’ and the IB, university credit can be received for exam success.

Advocates maintain that ‘A’ levels have a valid and wholesome niche in education and the marketplace, primarily in Britain and increasingly abroad and whilst the international growth of the programme may not compare to that of the IB diploma, there is undoubtedly a market founded in British values (not an oxymoron!).

‘A’ levels entail quality specific delivery of subject areas, unashamed focus on specific areas of student interest and established university admission around the world, something that the IB diploma amongst others, is still working towards.

Next week – the nuts and bolts of ‘A’ levels.

Dear Readers,

The world is a tempestuous and uncertain place. Duty has called me to the north and will prevent me from adding to this column further. However, the really splendid news is that the column will now be taken over by a great friend of mine, Andrew Watson. A Cambridge Blue, Andrew is a highly regarded and respected figure in local and regional education currently teaching at St Andrews, Rayong and previously one of the Heads of GIS. He has also been closely involved with Asian University and is thus in a perfect position to take over the reins. In wishing him all future success with the column, I would like to especially thank the editor and the proprietor of the Pattaya Mail for their unstinting support and I would like to thank you, the reader, for your support and comments of all kinds!

Thanks very much!
George Benedikt


Heart to Heart with Hillary

Dear Hillary,
Deepjoy your wickey -baskey full of dribdrobs! Shall dashly mad barbeerio for downit glistle and malty! Ahh, deepjoy togethermost!
Mistersingha
Dear Mistersingha,
I think this time you’ve gone flippedippy. Take more water with it, Petal.

Dear Hillary,
I lent a lady over 4 million baht, so I reckon I know twice as much about lending than Ken (ex-Pattaya resident) a couple of weeks back who only outlaid 2 million. He should think himself lucky that he got to help spend the two mill he coughed up, and I presume he lives in the house too and gets to drive the pickup if he’s been a good boy. I didn’t even get to set foot in the house, but she did send me a photo after I bought it. OK, so I was stupid to send that kind of money over to Thailand. My friends all warned me, but I thought I was different. After all I had known the “lady” for over six years, spent six months of each of those six years with her and helped her start a small business. We had no secrets from each other, did we? She knew I was married, I knew that she was single. So my money’s gone. So the “lady” has gone. I’m not going to cry over spilled milk, or spilled money, but it ain’t as good as you say it is, ex Pattaya resident Ken. It ain’t.
Ex Birmingham resident Bob (now Chiang Mai)
Dear Ex Birmingham resident Bob (now Chiang Mai),
Hillary is glad you are you are not holding on to bitterness, despite the financial loss. Life and love and lottery all start with “L” and can end in hell. You didn’t draw one of the winning tickets, but Ken did. I just hope that you keep up that strong spirit. There are better ones out there. Perhaps you should try an Isaan girl as Ken suggests - or did the last one come from there too? I have to say that I doubt if you would have given forty thousand pounds to a girl in Birmingham to spend, while you were over here on your six month period, now would you. It ain’t different, Bob. It ain’t.

Dear Hillary,
I have noticed that you spend much of your column appealing to your worried clients who want good advice to send you champagne and chocolates. Do you think this is fair? These people have problems and you dismiss them with a “send chocolates and champagne” answer. What is it with you and the choccies anyway?
Perplexed
Dear Perplexed,
You young people are all the same these days - wanting an answer for everything. Some things are just written in the stars, my Perplexed Petal. I suppose you also want to know why the earth is round, when the simple answer is just because it is! Or why the moon is made of green cheese. Likewise with Hillary and my chocolates. Now, for having read your letter, Perplexed, that’s one chocolate bar. For replying to it that’s another. Remember that not everyone is like you, my little enquirer. There are some writers who appreciate the hours and hours I agonize over the replies and send suitable recompense. Mistersingha is not one of them.

Dear Hillary,
I have been told by some friends in the pub over here that my Thai children cannot inherit my estate when I die. Their mother and I have been together for nearly eighteen years, but we have never been “officially” married and I have a grown up family back home (UK). What is the situation as regards my Thai kids? All that I want is that what I have in Thailand is theirs. With what my friends are telling me, I am worried that in the event of my dying (I am 69 at present and the children are 12, 10 and 7) they will be left with nothing. I don’t have much, but the UK family is all grown up and since they don’t care about me, they can take care of themselves. Can you sort this out, Hillary?
Ready to Go
Dear Ready steady Go,
Please don’t go yet. There are a few things you have to do before you pop off, Petal. First, have you made a valid will in Thailand? If you have not, then your family in the UK would have certain rights to your estate, which could rate higher than your Thai children’s rights. It is all very complicated, as these things always are. There’s nothing like a good fun funeral to get family members scratching each other’s eyes out! The important factor to protect your kiddies here is to see an accredited lawyer who will register your will in English and in Thai. If you really are that close to shuffling off then do it today! For that matter, do it today anyway - you might get run over by a rampant red bus. Your embassy can advise you on lawyers if you are unsure. Hillary is glad to see that you are protecting the welfare and future of your new family too.


PC Blues - News and Views: Blue Sky Computing

Vernor Vinge is a modern writer of Science Fiction, and a mathematician. He has been writing about the longer term future of computing. In his view, within the next twenty or thirty years we will have super-intelligent computers. Human intelligence will take second place to its own invention. This will happen within our lifetimes.

Computing capacity still follows Moore’s law, which says the power doubles every twenty months. The law has been correct now for thirty years, and shows no sign of failing. There have often been predictions of failure due to the limitations of this or that technology, but man’s inventiveness has always side-stepped the limitation one way or another.

Mythology contains many examples of the prediction of artificial intelligence, usually with disastrous consequences for the creator and/or the creation. The Golem and Frankenstein’s monster are but two instances. Modern Science Fiction abounds with intelligent robots and androids, both good and bad. Very soon we will have the ability to do just this, and inevitably, someone will do it, either deliberately or accidentally.

There is some doubt that we can construct a self-aware intelligent computer. Basically because we have no scientific theoretical basis for understanding the self-awareness of living organisms. None at all. Sir Roger Penrose went into this in some detail in his books, Shadows of the Mind and The Emperor’s New Mind. Shadows of the Mind is subtitled ‘A Search for the Missing Science of Consciousness’. Almost all the physics we know comes from two basic systems - Einstein’s General Relativity, and Quantum Theory: note that these two theories are not yet unified. He demonstrates lucidly that we cannot understand consciousness in terms of known theories of physics, in particular quantum theory. [Other eminent scientists disagree - but there is no consensus of opinion.]

Therefore, we cannot plan to make a conscious computer. We can experiment with trial and error, and hope that at some level of complexity a miracle occurs.

On the other hand, man’s inventions don’t mimic nature very closely. We have aeroplanes, but they don’t flap their wings like birds. We may be happy to have a super-intelligent, idiot-savant computer. We may make do with a computer-assisted brain. Already, someone with the use of the internet, and the skills to use it effectively, has an effective IQ far higher than his counterpart who has no computer.

Suppose you had a mental connection to the internet, satisfying your searches at the speed of thought. Suppose too that you had the computing power of a PC of twenty years from now, to aid your thought. (Moore’s law says that will be a PC over 4000 times as powerful.) Suppose thirdly that you had the wit to use this wisely! You would seem a bit godlike to the common man.

This is very dodgy. It is no use being super-intelligent if you don’t have enough common sense to use it wisely. On the other hand, the common sense answer is often not the right one. Can people stand the realisation that all their common sense answers are wrong? Super-intelligence may not be what people want. A lot of the people I see around me would prefer not to have to think. To them, it is unsatisfying hard work. Look on all the people who take to drugs, trying to escape from reality. Nonetheless, there will be some that want it, and some that think they want it.

In the beginning, this is going to be rather expensive. I imagine we should equip our geniuses with such tools first. Unfortunately, I expect the politicians will think otherwise - they will want it for themselves, first. Alas, I have no confidence in any politician using such skills wisely. All that will happen is they will be better equipped to make more disastrous mistakes than before.

When this comes about, there will be interesting times.

[There is one saving grace in all this. The super-computers with Micro$oft software in them will be the first to crash! When it happens, make sure you get one with Linux in it.]


Psychological Perspectives: Living with intense disappointment

by Michael Catalanello, Ph.D.

Writing in the aftermath of the U.S. Presidential election, I am aware of a deep sense of disappointment, bordering on despair in many of my more progressive countrymen, as well as my international friends. Alarmed by the provocative and militaristic turn the U.S. has taken under the Bush administration, and the President’s divisive stance on social issues like embryonic stem cell research and gay marriage, many of us had passionately hoped to see a change in the White House as a result of this election.

Nevertheless, the election is over. Our desire for change, at least for now, remains frustrated. However distasteful its outcome, the U.S. democratic process has worked its will. The question before those of us in the loyal opposition is how best to deal with the deep disappointment and emotional upset, and our fears of what foreign and domestic horrors might lay ahead, given four more years of this administration.

First, let us consider psychological techniques for dealing with disappointment and emotional upsets. Contemporary cognitive theorists like Albert Ellis and Aaron Beck point out the key role of our thoughts and beliefs in determining our emotional response to potentially disturbing events. Cognitive techniques are those that change our emotions and behavior by modifying our beliefs, thoughts, attitudes, and self-talk.

Feelings of anger, hopelessness, and despair can usually be found to be associated with certain related thoughts and beliefs. For example, upon reflection we might discover that our anger or despair is related to a view of the American President as “dishonest,” or “evil.” By critically evaluating this belief, we might decide that we have made a broad generalization about Bush’s nature, which cannot be defended by appeal to the limited number of dishonest and evil acts he may have performed. Thus we might change our thinking to a more rational view of Bush as a fallible human, whose actions and decisions are sometimes, but not always ill-informed and unwise.

Likewise, if we have been thinking of the election outcome as catastrophic, we might critically evaluate that belief, and conclude that, although it is unfortunate to the extreme, it might not qualify as a genuine catastrophe. We might also decide that viewing four more years of Bush as catastrophic is not worth the emotional suffering that occurs as a byproduct of that belief. Accordingly, we might conclude that this result is quite unpleasant and extremely distasteful, but certainly not catastrophic. Instead of feeling angry, helpless, or discouraged, we can then feel appropriately sad and disappointed.

Another cognitive technique involves trying to find the interesting aspects of an unpleasant or disappointing event, or derive some deeper understanding from the experience. For example, we might try to understand the political and sociological implications of these election results, and what they say about our times, or about the American people. Along with the presidential election results, pollsters have collected rich body of data in exit polls of voters which shed light upon the attitudes and values of the people casting a vote one way or another. By examining this data we might develop new theories or conclusions about important factors affecting attitudes within our societies and our world.

Of course, changing our beliefs and attitudes takes time. Recognizing the role of our irrational thoughts and disputing them is a major first step. Significant long term change, however, requires persistently and forcefully challenging our irrational beliefs over time and replacing them with more rational ones.

Next week we will examine behavioral strategies we can use to help us deal with undesirable events.

Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his home State of Louisiana, USA. He is a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at Asian University, Chonburi. Address questions and comments to him at [email protected]