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Money matters

Snap Shots

Modern Medicine

Heart to Heart with Hillary

PC Blues - News and Views

Personal Directions

Psychological Perspectives

Money matters: Storm Watch Update Part 4

Gold and Silver Fundamentals - Based on a an article by Jim Puplava March 2004

Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.

For those who want to know why gold prices are heading higher (besides the mindless spin coming from anchors and analysts), below are the last two in the series of fundamental reasons why gold and silver are heading higher.

7) Resource Scarcity

The final bullish factor is that there is a limited supply of actual physical bullion and gold and silver equities. The actual physical market in gold and silver bullion is no more than $30-35 billion a year. If investment demand keeps picking up, there won’t be enough gold and silver bullion around to satisfy investment demand unless prices head much higher. In the case of silver, there simply won’t be enough silver bullion to satisfy investment demand if delivery is demanded. (See Silver: the undervalued asset looking for a catalyst) Gold is also running a supply deficit. A $30 -35 billion actual physical market stands in front of an $80 -100 trillion paper financial market. There is simply not enough gold and silver around in aboveground stockpiles at today’s present prices to handle the impact of a 5-10% shift in asset preference by investors.

The three largest companies Newmont, Barrick Gold, and AngloGold represent almost 35% of the market cap of gold and silver equities. The Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) has a market cap of $51.46 billion. The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) has a market cap of $72.10 billion. The market cap of Newmont, Barrick Gold, Placer Dome and AngloGold is $47.89 billion. The rest of the industry is small by comparison. The four companies listed above dominate the industry in terms of market cap. The sector is relatively small by comparison to other industries. The floats of many issues are small and incapable of absorbing large inflows of currency. It is one reason why gold and silver charts all look parabolic by comparison. There are too few large cap gold stocks for the fund industry, institutional investors, or the Average Joe for the precious metal sector to absorb without prices going higher. I can only imagine what would happen if the dollar plummets, if the derivative market implodes, the stock market deflates, or if terrorism escalates globally. The gold and silver markets are simply too small, so prices will go higher.

8) Riding the Bull

The seven factors listed above are just a brief sketch of this new super bull market in precious metals that has only begun. The best part about it is that it has many sceptics, many worrywarts, and many non-believers. Those who have bought early have made small and large fortunes depending how they invested. But greater fortunes lie ahead. This bull market will be much bigger and different than the last bull market of the 1970s. As I wrote a couple of weeks ago in Open the Chequebook & Buy the Ounces, we can add a growing trade deficit, dwindling supply, and derivatives to the bull market equation. They are all drivers that will propel this super bull market much, much higher. Therefore it will have to be played much differently.

If you want to own bullion, buy it now while it is still available and affordable. In the not too distant future the price of silver will be going for what gold once sold for. Gold will only be affordable for the wealthy as it has always been in history. Throughout history silver was the money of the common man, while gold was the money of kings, princes or emperors. It may well be that way again. If you are investing in gold or silver equities, you’ll have to play this market differently.

Most senior and intermediate North American gold producers are selling at premiums of 30-33% above NAV (net asset value). Globally, the premium is under 20%. The best values lie with juniors and emerging producers. In many cases these stocks are selling at deep comparative discounts. The juniors and the emerging gold and silver producers will become the growth story during this super bull market. This is where the opportunity for multiple expansion remains the greatest. Higher production levels, higher prices, and spectacular exploration discoveries will drive this multiple expansion that will accompany higher prices.

Currently many of the emerging and junior producers are still selling at valuation discounts to the general industry. Many juniors are also selling at takeover discounts making them attractive to an intermediate or emerging producer to acquire. The best part about this is that few people believe it. Newsletter writers are cautious if not bearish. Industry executives are hoping to cash out or sell; not believing the price is sustainable. They’ve spent too much of their career in an industry depression that has lasted for two decades. Even the investment banking industry has its doubters. I know of a few firms that don’t believe their own balderdash. I constantly see them selling, shorting, churning or engineering moves that suppress the price of many juniors. They either don’t believe that we are in a super bull market or they have other motives. For an investor, their lack of belief or actions can mean opportunity if you want to buy at a low price.

Mark Twain once wrote that history never repeats, but it often times rhymes. The Spanish philosopher Santayana was slightly more to the point when he said that, “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”. It is the same for investment markets. Bull markets come and go in familiar waves and patterns. Each bull market is a little different than the one that preceded it. A discerning investor should learn what makes the market different and then devise a plan as to how to ride it.

The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]


Snap Shots: Fill-In Flash adds sparkle

by Harry Flashman

One way to pick most amateur shots from professional ones is by the sparkle in the eyes. The catch-lights just lift and add life. The additional lighting to the face also gets rid of harsh shadows and again helps give dynamism to any portrait.

Unfortunately Fill-in Flash is one of the least understood concepts in photography. In fact, many people are just so afraid of it they never try and condemn themselves to dark, featureless portraits or dreadful pictures full of bright highlights and disastrously dark shadows.

Why do we need fill-in flash in the first place? Let’s start with taking shots in the bright Thailand sun at mid-day. It is all very well saying that you should take shots in the early morning or late afternoon, but many family gatherings are lunchtime affairs. End result, big black shadows where the eyes are supposed to be and an appearance of bags under the eyes you could put a change of clothes in.

The other time you are going to need a flash fill is when the light (generally the sun) is behind the person you are going to photograph. The camera sets the exposure for the bright background and the foreground then comes out so dark you will hardly recognize anyone’s face.

With both of these shots, what you need is a burst of flash to fill in the shadows or the underexposed areas of the shot. Hence the name - Fill-in Flash!

With today’s automatic exposure cameras you must understand that it doesn’t know what it is that you are photographing. It doesn’t know that the person’s face in the picture is the most important item. All the camera’s brain can see is a mixture of bright lights and dark areas and it will give you an exposure to try and equalize these out. Unfortunately, in conditions of high contrast in the tropical sun, or back lit, the camera reaches its limitations and the end result will be underexposure of the part of the photograph you want. It’s not the camera’s fault - it just means you have to get smarter.

Fortunately, these days many compacts and SLR’s do have the Fill-in Flash mode built in, but many of you do not use it - or even realise that you have this facility! Did you read the book that came with the camera? If you have it - then use it! Please do look, the shots you will get back will be much better than you were getting before.

Now, for those of you who have the whole kit and caboodle - an SLR with an off-camera flash, this last section is for you. The whole secret of fill-in flash revolves around flash synchronization speed. Some of the very latest, and expensive cameras will synchronize flash and shutter speed all the way through to 1/2000th of a second or better, but the average SLR will probably say that the synch speed is 1/125th or even only 1/60th and it is this figure which drives the exposure setting.

In practice, what you have to do is put the camera on shutter priority, let’s say the 1/125th synch speed and then read off what the resultant aperture setting is when metering the subject’s face. Let’s imagine the camera meter tells you that it will be f11. Now put the camera in manual mode and fix the shutter at 1/125th and the aperture at f11.

Next step is to set the power of the flash gun, measured in f stops. You do not want the flash to overpower the natural light, so you set the power to be one or two stops less than the aperture you have set in the camera. In the example, the camera is set on f11, so you set the flash on f8 for one stop or f5.6 for two stops.

Take the two shots at the different flash powers and decide which effect is best and practice with this technique for better photographs. You will not be disappointed.


Modern Medicine: Acne! Not the zits again!

by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant

The other morning I managed to hack the top off a zit (good medical terminology for an acneiform pustule) while shaving. This actually brought a smile to my lips, as it always makes me feel young when I get a pimple, since pimples are generally the badge of youth. I sometimes refer to those years as the ages of oozing pimples and puberty.

The official figures are that it affects 90 percent of boys and 80 percent of girls in the 15-17 year age bracket.

There is a tendency to trivialize acne just because everyone goes through it, but when you take into consideration that acne scarring can be permanent, and that for the adolescent sufferer this can produce depression, social isolation and even suicide, then the condition takes a much higher medical profile.

The actual cause of acne, like many medical conditions, is still not fully understood, though we do understand the process. What happens is that there is an increase in sebum production by the oil producing glands in the skin. This results in blockage of the oil producing gland itself (the follicle) which then becomes invaded and infected by a bug called Proprionibacterium. This results in the pustular Mt. Vesuvius on the face which is the scourge of the teenage years. The all pervading zit.

Unfortunately, there is much myth surrounding the causation of the zits. The first is that it is caused by eating too much chocolate and fatty foods. While I believe there is a connection, the sugary and fatty foods are not the cause. I do believe it accelerates the condition, though, so you can put the chocolate biscuits back, Miss Noi!

There is also an underlying thought that acne is the result of poor hygiene. Let me assure you that this is not the case. “Blackheads” are actually not dirt and the dark colour is a combination of melanin and the skin cells and the plug of sebum.

Another problem comes from the fact that teenagers get told that acne is just a “normal” part of growing up and don’t worry about it. While most kids will get the condition, it is not “normal” and should never be thought of that way.

Another of the great myths is that prescription treatments do not work. This is not correct, the earlier treatment is instituted, the less likelihood there is of permanent scarring.

I am also very sorry, but I have never been a fan of the proprietary preparations which are heavily advertised on TV. If they can spend that much money on advertising, the expensive tube of wonder goop must have a huge profit margin in it.

So what treatments are available? Basically there are two types - rub it on (which we call topical) or swallow it (which we call oral therapies). The problem that occurs is the fact that there is no “instant” cure and treatment may have to be maintained for up to six months, or even longer. There is now an oral form of a group of drugs called retinoids too, and while these have really produced a small “break through” in the treatment of acne, they are also a very hazardous form of treatment which has to be done under the close supervision of a skin specialist.

So that’s the acne story. Don’t just accept it as inevitable - get treatment early!


Heart to Heart with Hillary

Dear Hillary,
One young lady of my acquaintance tells me that her lease on her apartment is running out at the end of next month, and she has asked if she could stay in mine for a couple of weeks until she finds a new place for herself. I have told her before that I do not want a steady girlfriend relationship, and she has always seemed OK with that. We go out about once a week, usually to the movies. Should I let her do this? My friends are warning me that she might want more than just a night at the flicks. What is your advice?
Charlie
Dear Charlie,
Don’t be chump, Charlie. If she does not have to move out till next month, why can’t she find a place in the interim? Four weeks is more than enough time to find a place to stay that doesn’t have a Charlie in it. You are being set up. She will arrive with more than a change of clothes and a toothbrush, mark my words. If you want to try a night (in) at the flicks seven nights a week, then go ahead, but be prepared to use a crowbar to get her out! You have been warned by your friends, and now by me!
Dear Hillary,
Wee Ying (sister same Nit) has resurfaced and this gives me an opportunity to increase the speed and efficiency of the samlor. By having both Nit and Ying pedalling together (in English!) I shall increase the wheelbase to accomodate (sic) them securely but have yet to decide on the most visual layout. Ladies line abreast or ladies fore and aft? I must get to the bottom of this before the next visa run. Would you like a dickey in the rear, Hillary?
Mistersingha
Dear Mistersingha,
You remain confused and engineeringly challenged, Petal. (As well as being unable to spell - it’s ‘accommodate’ my little purple passion flower. That’s two ‘c’ letters and two ‘m’ letters.) According to my dictionary, the wheelbase is the distance between the front and rear axles (Concise Oxford), so obviously if you need to increase this you have the ladies fore and aft, as you put it. Thank you for the offer of a run to beautiful downtown Poipet, but Hillary does not need to do those things. However, why is it when thinking about you, the word ‘renege’ keeps on bobbing up? Again according to my trusty Concise Oxford, the word renege means to go back on a promise, undertaking or contract. I am sure you do remember all the promises of champagne and chocolates, even if you did not know the meaning of the word renege. Now that you do, and I have reminded you, I shall wait for the delivery boy bringing a nice package to my desk.
Dear Hillary,
My Thai girlfriend tells me that she has to go back to her village for a few days because her sister is getting married, and the entire family has to be there. Now I happen to know she hasn’t got a sister, because she told me that she only has a brother and that is why she sends money home to her mother each month. I asked her directly about this sister and she said that yes this is her sister, but different papa. She also seems to have many more cousins than she should have, because her mother only has one sister. Do you think this is an excuse to go back home, or is there something I am missing here, Hillary? We have been together only three months, but I like her a lot.
Confused of Chonburi
Dear Confused of Chonburi,
You have not had much to do with Thai families, have you, Petal? The Thai ‘extended’ family is such that almost everyone in your girlfriend’s village will be considered a ‘cousin’ and a ‘sister’ is someone who probably was raised in the family household, but not necessarily directly related. For the western mind, used to exact definitions of ‘sister’ and ‘cousin’ this can be confusing, but for the Thai, this is how village life always was, and always will be. Relax and let your girlfriend go back and fulfil her duties to her family. You will get along better in the relationship if you give her a little leeway. After all, she is trying to adapt to your strange ways. Time for you to do the same for her.
Dear Hillary,
I have noticed that some people have been critical of your advice from time to time. Don’t these people understand that nobody writes into an “agony” column in the papers hoping to get “real” advice. If you want psychiatric help, as one of the writers has claimed, then you see a psychiatrist, not Hillary. Or have I got it wrong?
Sam the Psycho
Dear Sam the Psycho,
Just lie back on the couch and relax, my troubled Sam. Of course you haven’t got it wrong. They have. But what worries me, is why are you worrying about this? Have you had this problem long? Would you like to share the burden with somebody? I’ll get nurse to make an appointment for you for next week.


PC Blues - News and Views:  

by Monitor

Bill Gates, speaking next door in Putrajaya, Malaysia, has warned governments and companies that open source software is not good for them. They must be quaking in their boots.

Open source is one of the two top challenges facing Micro$oft. The other is piracy. They are taking it seriously then.

Gates said, “If you don’t want to create jobs or intellectual property, then there is a tendency to develop open source. It is not something you do as a day job. If you want to give it away, you work on it at night.”

Anybody creating open source code is making a job for themselves! Bill Gates doesn’t want do-it-yourself job creation! Companies get nothing out of do-it-yourself schemes. They get no government funding for it: no grants: nothing. There again, I don’t think anyone actively wants NOT to create jobs. And as for “intellectual property”, the open source society is creating lots of it, but making sure it is publicly available at no charge.

The open source model, as a method of developing software, if nothing else, is a matter of serious concern for large companies. Most companies employ managers, who oversee the workers, and who get paid more. Open source software is developed without managers. Indeed, managers are generally looked down upon by technicians as people who could not do the job, and who therefore have no right to manage. Open source is therefore a serious threat to managers, for they would be out of a job. However, IBM espouses Linux, and it would be interesting to know how they square this with their managers.

[I should remark that there are very good managers who are respected by the software developers. Open source development does need coordinators, and such people are solicited, and are in demand.]

Bill Gates said, “[Open source] doesn’t guarantee upward compatibility.” Micro$oft themselves have recently dropped that one. Maybe they’ll bring it back. By the way, he doesn’t mean future compatibility, he means running old software on modern computers. Do you trust someone who says what they mean, and vice versa? Nothing guarantees this, but Linux is aiming for security, and this sometimes excludes compatibility.

The report spoke of the contributions Windows had made to the Asian economy. When I first came out this way, I brought my CV in Micro$oft Word format, and was baffled - because all the people I could find were still running Word Perfect (a superior product, in my opinion), and none could read my disc!

On the other hand, there has been a boom in pirated software - is this the contribution he meant?

Gates has a persuasive argument for governments on piracy - he tells them they lose tax on illicit sales. True, but wide of the mark. The government taxes are our money - not the government’s. Business activity thrives in low tax regimes, so any ‘lost’ tax income is, in fact, good for business.

He promises a cut-down version of Windows XP, special for Malaysia and Thailand, to compete with the pirate editions! I have seen a lot of chat on the Internet about this. Such as questions asking whether he has cut out all the faulty bits!

If so, might be worth a few baht.

Micro$oft’s next Windows OS, Longhorn, is supposed to be released in 2007. But Gates would not confirm the release date because “there’s still a lot of work to be done.”

Some of this work may be part of the SP2 update for XP, which has now been delayed until August. You remember? The one with all the patches to make Windows more secure?

Personal Directions: Coaching the way to personal branding

by Christina Dodd

The work and writings of Gabriella Goddard were the inspiration for this week’s article.

People with a powerful personal brand stand out and get noticed. You know the type; they walk into a room and exude an aura of confidence and charisma. They’re natural and they’re magnetic. People notice them and people remember them.

Just think of David Beckham, Madonna, Nelson Mandela, Anita Roddick, or Bill Clinton. What they have in common is 3 key things;

* they’re distinctive,
* they’re natural and
* everything they do is aligned to their essence

And when they move away from their personal brand, they lose people’s trust - as David Beckham has found out in recent months!

But personal branding is not just for the rich and famous.

Personal branding is for us mortal beings as well. Whenever you meet someone you make a first impression on them. This is done within the first 5 seconds. The question to ask is what do people make up about you? And how does that impression line up with who you truly are?

Whether we like it or not, we already have a brand identity - a first impression or image that comes to mind when people hear or see our name.

How can we get that identity to be what we want, rather than leaving to chance what people might think? Inspiring you - redefine your own personal brand!

To borrow from Henry Ford, every day brings us the opportunity to begin again, more intelligently, and this applies to our personal brand too. We can redefine, strengthen or re-align our brand at any time - with the right preparation and effort.

Look at these tips for your personal brand makeover:

Step 1: Know Thyself

At the heart of any brand is the essence of what it stands for. In the same way, you are at the centre of your own brand. That makes it unique, because there is nobody in the world exactly like you. It is this uniqueness that helps you stand out in the crowd, creating a strong positioning. All you need to do is extract your essence and amplify it. So indulge in some navel gazing and explore your own inner potential, because your true personal power comes from within.

Step 2: Stand Tall

Someone with a powerful personal brand plays to their strengths. So what are you really good at? Where do you need to be standing taller? Why are you hiding your light under a bushel? Maybe you’re great at coming up with creative solutions, or building relationships, or getting a fast response from the IT department (!), or spotting opportunities in the market. Pick one strength and make a commitment to really bring that to the forefront over the next 7 days.

Step 3: Walk Your Talk

To be successful, a brand must deliver what it promises. Imagine having high tea at a five star hotel only to find your cup is chipped and the scones are dry. Would you rush to go back? In the same way, once you have defined who you are, what you stand for and what value you bring, it’s important to live and breathe this in all areas of your life.

For example, if one of your values is “professional”, ask yourself the following:

* Are my clothes professional?
* Does my personal appearance look professional?
* Am I professional?
* Do I keep confidences?

Step 4: Manage Your Reputation

Working on increasing your visibility is the key to being noticed. And it can be done with authenticity and integrity. While companies spend millions on raising their brand profile, for individuals the process is much simpler.

* Be clear on where you want to be in 12 months time
* Decide what you want to be “known” for
* Align how you look, what you say and what you do
* Identify the most effective ways for raising your profile

For the next month, how about picking just three ways to raise your profile and commit to doing them consciously – DAILY!

Step 5: Evolve with the times

You will change over time, both as a result of your own personal growth and the dynamics of your industry. There will be times when you feel frustrated and stuck. Maybe you’re dissatisfied, or you’re bored or you no longer feel aligned to where your company is heading.

If you’re at this stage, then simply go back to the beginning and take stock of what’s not working for you anymore. Then spend some time re-assessing your vision for the future and what you need to do to reposition yourself for the next phase of your journey.

So what does this all mean …?

Here is a practical example - just consider this: People buy from people they trust. And they’ll generally choose the lowest risk option. That becomes a real challenge for small businesses. How do you compete when you don’t have the big name, the big budgets and the big workforce?

Answer: You come up with your USP – Unique Selling Point – and through it promote your difference … your personal brand.

Because small businesses are often founded by entrepreneurial types, it can be much easier for them to develop a compelling brand than it is for larger companies, whose passion and personality have been eroded over the years.

If you think your company brand needs a makeover, then the same personal branding principles apply:

Firstly it must be distinctive

Secondly it must be natural and a true reflection of the people that work there, and,

Thirdly it must be expressed congruently through every part of the business.

The result: Empowering you – giving you the resources and energy to take you forward!

“You can stand tall without standing on someone.” - Harriet Woods

As you may have realised, having a supportive, objective professional to support you in building your personal brand can be a huge factor in your personal or your business success. This is where life coaching comes and our company Asia Training Associates / Lifecoach-Asia comes in.

How well does your brand stack up?

Why not book a coaching session to see where you can start? At Asia Training Associates / Lifecoach-Asia we have experienced, trained and certified coaches who can pilot you through stormy and uncertain times. Our coaches will listen to you, act as a sounding-board and give you personal, solid, proven and innovative feedback and suggestions as to how you can move your life, your business, our society and even our world forward.

For more details about our life coaching services, personal and professional skills development programs, please email me directly at [email protected] or visit our website www.asiatrainingassociates.com

Until next time, have a fabulous week and take one step closer to reaching your goals!



Psychological Perspectives:  The power of social situations

by Michael Catalanello, Ph.D.

Two weeks ago in this column we reviewed the work of Stanley Milgram which demonstrated how normal individuals can be induced to perform abusive acts toward others in response to demands made by authority figures. This research was discussed within the context of the current Iraqi prisoner abuse scandal, and casts into question President Bush’s contention that these were acts perpetrated by a few bad apples.

The Milgram experiments and similar investigations make it clear that obedience to authority can have a powerful effect upon individuals, influencing them to perform antisocial acts they might not otherwise perform.

In a related line of research, investigators at Stanford University led by Philip Zimbardo identified other situational factors that may influence people to exhibit aberrant behavior. Zimbardo’s team simulated the social environment existing within a prison in an effort to understand the psychological effects of becoming a prisoner or a prison guard.

Subjects for the experiment were recruited through newspaper ads calling for volunteers for a study of the psychological effects of prison life. The 70 applicants answering the ad were given a battery of interviews and personality tests designed to screen out those with psychological disorders, medical disabilities, or a history of criminal behavior. Finally, a sample of 24 college students was selected for participation in the experiment.

Experienced consultants, including an ex-prisoner, assisted the Stanford research team in outfitting the basement of Stanford’s Psychology Department building to function as a prison, incorporating such features as iron-barred cells, a solitary confinement area, and a recreation area for guards. A flip of a coin determined which participants were designated as guards, and which would serve as prisoners. Subjects were provided no instructions on how to fulfill their respective roles.

The experiment began with the subjects designated as prisoners being “arrested” in their homes by local police officers, booked, fingerprinted, and driven to the simulated prison. There each prisoner was searched, stripped naked, and sprayed with delousing agents. They were issued loose-fitting smocks with an identification number, rubber sandals, a stocking cap for covering their hair. A chain was bolted to their ankles. The guards were outfitted in khaki uniforms and provided with nightsticks, handcuffs, reflector sunglasses, keys, and whistles.

During the next few days a few of the guards began behaving progressively more abusively toward the prisoners. They were observed to harass the prisoners by assigning push-ups to punish perceived infractions of the rules. One guard went so far as to step on the prisoners’ backs while they performed push-ups, or instructed other prisoners to sit or step on the backs of prisoners doing push-ups.

On the second day, prisoners began a rebellion by removing their stocking caps, ripping off their numbers, and barricading themselves inside their cells. They began to taunt and curse the guards. The guards, in turn, responded with force. They used a fire extinguisher to subdue the prisoners, broke into each cell, and stripped the prisoners naked. They then placed the leaders of the rebellion into solitary confinement and began harassing and intimidating the prisoners.

Eventually one of the prisoners began suffering an acute emotional disturbance . At first his behavior was interpreted as a ploy intended to bring about his release from confinement. Thirty-six hours into the experiment, however, the researchers became convinced of the prisoner’s distress and were forced to release him. Other prisoners were subsequently released early under similar circumstances.

This study demonstrates how, within a relatively brief period of time, normal individuals can be induced to exhibit behavior similar to that of actual prisoners and guards in real prisons. By extension, it appears that under conditions like those at Abu Ghraib, normal people can be induced to exhibit aberrant, even pathological behavior.

Dr. Catalanello is licensed as a psychologist in his home State of Louisiana, USA. He is employed as a lecturer at Asian University in Jomtien. Address questions or comments to: [email protected]