Thought for the week: Change - preparing for an unpredictable future

by Richard Townsend, Corporate Learning Consultant
http://www.orglearn.org

Often when dealing with change we tend to limit our view of the future to that which is obvious and imminent. Those of us that will succeed (or even survive) in the future are going to need an entirely new set of competencies. Competencies are skills and knowledge applied to a particular task. In a complex environment knowledge and how well it is developed and applied to fluid and varied tasks is what will make us winners in the future. An important way to develop our future knowledge, or at least understand which competencies we need to develop, is through the use of scenario building or visioning.

To create effective visions we need to look for and understand the underlying trends that are influencing our environment. Much as the study of botany or biology has developed from viewing single organisms, we have to approach the future with an entire eco system outlook. We need to build ‘future-scanning’ into our regular business practices and planning cycle; old- style trend analysis is no longer enough. The concepts of continuous learning and learning organizations have become essentials. Additionally, if our learning is only a product of something special or seen as an extra, it will not satisfy the real needs of our organization.

Building scenarios is a way to ‘predict’ or build a number of possible futures. It is particularly effective in alerting us to a future that could be either particularly lethal or, highly attractive. A strong vision is the most potent factor in the creation of our future. Victory does not always go to those with the most firepower; it goes as often to the smaller force with the greatest imagination, flexibility, boldness, tenacity and belief in their vision, as the Vietnamese so poignantly taught the US and its allies in the “American War” (as the Vietnamese prefer to call it). The point of future gazing/scanning/brainstorming is to design a more desirable future, the one we want and... to help us avoid the less desirable possibilities. The only way to get to a more desirable future is to envision it, plan for it and then go out and create it.

Scenarios are imaginative pictures of potential futures. Before embarking on a scenario building exercise professional help may need to be sought. As a guideline the process should be as follows: 1. Select the team; scenario builders need to bring a diversity of perspective whilst being passionate about a common interest. 2. A vision year should be decided (i.e. Malaysia has vision 2020). 3. A scenario question needs to be decided on a crucial issue. Effective scenario questions could be ‘what new business should we invest in’ or, ‘what sort of customers will expand our market’. 4. Driving forces or potential happenings need to be uncovered which are divided into ‘predetermined elements’ or ‘critical uncertainties’. Predetermined elements are reasonably predictable, e.g. population trends. The majority of forces are, however, uncertain, regulations, freedom to communicate, moral, ethical and political developments are difficult to predict. 5. Documented potential happenings should be set out and must then be forced into converged scenarios. Here consensus is desirable; however, perhaps some form of ranking procedure will be required. 6. Test the various scenarios by asking key questions such as: what plausible chain of events or what combinations of actions could lead to this future? What is going on in critical arenas? What kind of economy is consistent, how is technology unfolding, what types of political reactions would have to take place to make the scenario/s plausible? 7. Finally we must plan, rehearse and discuss what should be done to thrive under each possible future and review current beliefs, values, objectives and strategies to test their effectiveness in each of the futures.

Ideally we may find ways to attain what was previously thought impossible as the scenario building process may show us how to find leverage we need to create the future we want.

Worth a thought!

To contact Ric mailto: [email protected]