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Family Money: Looking
forward
By Leslie Wright
Having this time last year ventured into the realm of
crystal balls and made somewhat tongue-in-cheek predictions for what I
thought might happen in 1999, I have been urged by a number of regular
readers to repeat my performance this year. But since I apparently did
quite well last year, they’ve asked me to be a bit more “specifically
committed” (as one eloquent gentleman put it), which I take to mean
going farther out on the limb in forecasting which markets will do what.
Oh dear!
Although it’s not hard to make humorous predictions
with regard to some local goings-on, making more serious forecasts for
what might happen in various stock markets over a twelve-month period is
infinitely more difficult and fraught with danger - especially given the
current positions of world markets.
Anyway, just for fun, I’ll give it my best shot - so
long as you don’t run off and venture your life savings based on what
follows!
#1: The question I am asked most frequently - not just
at New Year but all the time - is what I think will happen with the Thai
economy, and specifically the Thai Baht over the next few weeks or months.
There is still some speculation over the continued
stability or otherwise of the local banking system in general, and certain
banks in particular. Over the past year some of the overwhelming debts
carried by some local banks have been partially restructured, and others
are reportedly going to be written off during this year (at long last!),
meaning that bank stocks will have to absorb the capital loss, which will
undoubtedly have an adverse effect on share prices. On the other hand,
this move will perhaps help restore international confidence, thus tending
to even out the bumps as investors perceive value (or speculative
opportunities, as was the case in 1999) returning to that troubled sector.
Nonetheless, the figures for non-performing loans -
especially the so-called ‘strategic’ ones with people who have the
wherewithal but not the willingness to pay - are still significantly
higher among local banks than deemed acceptable by international banking
‘norms’, and will continue to be a problem throughout this year.
To help raise much-needed capital (both to meet the
government’s minimum standards and offset the NPLs), interest rates on
local bank deposits will have to be kept low; but for the same reasons,
the current significant differential between lending and deposit rates
will probably persist throughout most of the year.
On the general politico-economic front, I believe that
despite the much-publicised and ever-colourful horticultural (or perhaps
that should be ‘haughty cultural’) shows held in the Thai Parliament
(otherwise known as no-confidence debates) wherein the perennial flowering
of the ubiquitous seeds of corruption are displayed for the voting public
to gaze upon with varying degrees of amazement and amusement, enlivened
with lengthy lectures by posturing politicians on the various grafting
techniques used by their opponents, who typically respond by hurling
verbal weed-killers at their detractors (who seem remarkably resilient to
even the most regular doses of poisonous verbosity), nothing much will
change and the economy will probably remain more or less steady (with the
occasional dip as each new revelation of malfeasance and/or corruption
surfaces); and I am not expecting any significant or sustained improvement
until the third quarter.
As a result, I believe the Baht will likely fluctuate
within the range 37-42 to the US$ for most of this year, and the SET will
fluctuate erratically (as always) between 400 and 600 for the first half
of the year, and provided no major disasters come along, may break through
to struggle up to around 700 by the end of the year.
#2: The second most frequently asked question these
days concerns the US market - and this is a particularly tough one to call
right now.
There are two opposing camps of ‘expert’ opinion
with regard to what direction the US stock market will take in the coming
months. First, that the market is overpriced and overdue for a correction.
This has been many analysts’ stance for quite some time (including, I
admit, mine). The second camp says that the US economy is fundamentally
sound, and that the market will continue to rise, driven by investor
sentiment while the economic figures remain robust and demand is still
strong.
Well, the fundamentals looked doubtful a year ago, and
P/E ratios back then were already at levels which economic theory dictated
were unsustainable. But apart from a small dip in the third quarter of
1999, the major indices continued to soar to stratospheric heights. Will
the same thing happen again this year? A very tough one to call, so I will
refer to the consensus view of 30 major international financial
institutions whose forecasts I receive regularly. Of these, not one is
taking a positive stance for US equities for the coming 12 months. Eight
are neutral, and all the rest are negative.
So unless you are a dyed-in-the-wool contrarian (which
I’m not), one would have to go with the flow and advise caution with
respect to investing in US equities this year. (Or to put it another way,
if you’re already in, now may be the time to start thinking about taking
your profits and getting out.)
Of course, some are predicting a major slump once what
they see as a sentiment-driven speculative bubble eventually bursts. My
own view is that the market will continue to ride the wave for another
three months, and then gradually cool off as investors move their money to
other less-overpriced markets.
#3: Doubts about the Euro have, if anything, increased
over the past year, and the European governments have been discussing the
situation (some would say squabbling) at great length, with no real
solution in sight.
Europe, however, is seen by many analysts as the
principal alternative to the over-priced US market, and European stocks
are generally expected to do well this year. This area is my strongest bet
for good returns from equities in 2000.
#4: Will Sterling remain strong and steady? Certainly
that seems likely for at least the first three months of 2000 while doubts
persist over the Euro. If the European Union cannot come up with a united
policy to restore international confidence in their currency (which seems
unlikely in the short term given the various vested nationalist interests
involved and the intransigence of some members), Sterling will continue to
be seen as the principal alternative currency to the dollar, and thus
likely to retain its strength. If the EU gets its act together and the
Euro strengthens significantly later in the year (which I don’t think is
going to happen - but I could be wrong), then Sterling will weaken as the
hedge-betters back the Euro and move away from Sterling.
#5: Interest rates in the major economies will almost
certainly remain at relatively low levels while inflation remains under
control.
However, if the US market does not cool off of its own
accord, Alan Greenspan will probably raise interest rates again in
February or March (probably by 0.25%); and if this does not serve to slow
the economy sufficiently, the Fed may be forced to raise them again in
April or May if stock market euphoria continues unabated or inflation
starts to raise its ugly head (as some think is possible).
#6: If the Fed does raise interest rates in the first
quarter, the UK will probably follow suit shortly thereafter, having
resisted this move during the last round due to satisfactory economic
figures. However, if the UK economy does not show the positive growth
expected in the first quarter, and there are no signs of growing
inflation, then there may be no need to raise interest rates to cool
things down until much later in the year, with the FTSE perhaps ending the
year at around 3750-3800. Very iffy-butty, I’m afraid, but my crystal
ball is rather cloudy on this one, and the tea leaves are still in the
bag.
#7: As touched upon in #1, unless the economy in
Thailand has an unexpected upsurge (unlikely) or all the strategic NPLs
decide to pay their debts (even more unlikely), interest rates on local
bank deposits will probably remain virtually unchanged throughout most of
this year.
#8: Japan is another difficult one to call. The
watered-down economic package trundled out last year had international
investment analysts waxing enthusiastic about reforms being imminent and
recovery in sight. This had the effect of significant amounts of money
pouring into Japan - most notably at the time when the US market seemed
about to reverse - and the Nikkei responded very positively. However,
towards the end of 1999 that growth seemed to be fizzling out.
I recall a similar situation in the second quarter of
1994 when several major institutions’ analysts declared a fundamental
sea-change in the Japanese economy, and were positive there would be a
sustained recovery. It didn’t happen then, and despite the overwhelming
majority of institutional analysts holding a positive outlook for Japanese
equities again now, I have to admit I’m somewhat less enthusiastic,
since I do not see a fundamental sea-change or real reforms being
implemented in their troubled sectors. I may be going against the
conformist mainstream principles argued in #2, or I may be missing
something, but I don’t see the Nikkei rising much above 22,000 unless
and until the US economy shows real signs of slowing, when the wall of
money that’s been sustaining it will be looking for other homes. And for
this, Europe is my first choice, with Japan coming in a rather hesitant
second. But yes, I am advocating holding a modest wedge of Japan in your
portfolio, but keeping a cautious eye open for any danger signals that
come out of that market.
(To be continued next week)
Leslie Wright is Managing Director of Westminster
Portfolio Services (Thailand) Ltd., a firm of independent financial
advisors providing advice to expatriate residents of the Eastern Seaboard
on personal financial planning and international investments. If you have
any comments or queries on this article, or about other topics concerning
investment matters, contact Leslie directly by fax on (038) 232522 or
e-mail [email protected].
Further details and back articles can be accessed on his firm’s website
on www.westminsterthailand.com.
Editor’s note: Leslie sometimes receives e-mails to which he is
unable to respond due to the sender’s automatic return address being
incorrect. If you have sent him an e-mail to which you have not received a
reply, this may be why. To ensure his prompt response to your enquiry,
please include your complete return e-mail address, or a contact phone/fax
number.
The Computer Doctor
by Richard Bunch
From Simon Smith, Muang: I have
read your recent articles regarding using Thai language on PC’s. I have
two PC’s, one is a laptop provided by my employer in England the other is
a desktop I bought myself over here. I stay both in my house in Thailand and
in England. I should say that we, my Thai wife and I live in both places. My
wife would like to access Thai websites and has an occasional need to type
Thai.
Obviously I am somewhat limited in what I can do with the
laptop PC but this is what my wife will use in England, the desktop stays in
Thailand and I am happy to do anything necessary to achieve the objective.
Please can you advise me as to the best course of action?
Computer Doctor replies: I will address the two
PC’s separately, firstly the laptop. This PC, having been supplied by an
English company will undoubtedly have an English only keyboard. In order to
type Thai effectively you will need to purchase a PS/2 Thai/English keyboard
to attach externally. I suggest you purchase this locally as they are not
commonly available in England. Once this is done you will need to install
the Keyboard Switch and Thai Fonts, both of which can be downloaded from
http://thaigate.rd. nacsis.ac.jp/refer/thaiio.html. When you have installed
these, once invoked she will be able to type Thai by selecting the language
and a Thai font. With regards to reading Thai on the Internet this is easily
done with Microsoft’s Internet Explorer 5, using the Thai language option.
If you do not have this installed already, and I suspect not, simply connect
to Microsoft’s website and download the appropriate supplement.
With regard to the desktop, I am assuming you currently
have the English version of the operating system installed, and then you
have two choices. You can either do exactly the same as above, which may be
less confusing for your wife as she only has to learn one method, or you can
install the Thai/English version. If you choose the latter, then you will
need to format your hard disk and do a clean install of the operating system
and applications. Don’t forget to backup any essential data first!
From Harold Breeze, Pattaya: I have recently
purchased a TV tuner card for my PC. The PC itself is only 1 year old and a
Pentium II. I have installed Windows 98 and everything works fine, that is
to say except for the tuner card. I have Sophon Cable installed in the house
and the picture on a normal TV is quite acceptable, but when I try to view
it on my PC monitor, I can only view it in a small window; it will not go
full screen and the option is grayed out and therefore unavailable. Any help
you can give would be appreciated. As well as not wanting to write off the
money I spent on the card as a loss, I am also desperately short of space so
do not have the room to accommodate a standard television.
Computer Doctor replies: Harold, you have given me
very little information to go on, so I can only be general in my response.
To be more specific I would at the very least need to know the make and
model of your graphics card and TV tuner card together with any other cards
that you may have installed. Anyway, the TV tuner cards available today tend
to be far more robust than a few years ago and generally speaking set up
without too much difficulty. The main areas of conflict tend to be due to
out of date drivers for the graphics card and or compatibility problems with
the card itself. You can look in the manual and on manufacturer’s website,
if available and check for known compatibility issues. If your graphics card
is listed, you will need to change it, even if it is not I suggest at least
you test another graphics card. When testing or purchasing a new graphics
card I advise getting one with at least 16Mb of memory on board.
Send your questions or comments to the Pattaya Mail at
370/7-8 Pattaya Second Road, Pattaya City, 20260 or Fax to 038 427 596 or
E-mail to [email protected].
Richard Bunch is Managing Director of Action Computer Technologies.
Successfully Yours: Michael
Vogt
by Mirin MacCartthy
 Michael Vogt, of the infectious laugh and gregarious
nature, appears very much at home in his role of mein host of the Thai
Garden Resort and Moon River Pub. Having been here for ten years, he is a
well-known member of the community.
A past president of the Jomtien-Pattaya Rotary Club, a
founding member and secretary of the Chaine des Rotisseurs of Pattaya,
member of the Masonic Lodge, past chairman of the 1995 B.O.I. Fair and
member of Pattaya City PR & Marketing Committee 1994 -1996, Michael is
always to be found promoting his favourite city. “We consider Pattaya
our home and try to assist with our limited means to improve the image and
put Pattaya where it belongs. There is really something here for everyone,
great golf and water sport and the most fascinating place for food.”
Born some 30 plus years ago in the unpronounceable town
of Moenchengladbach Germany, 20 minutes from Koln, Michael has followed
the career of hotelier since his teens. Unsure what he wanted to do on
leaving school, he attended a presentation by a major hotel chain. “Two
days later I put in my application and was accepted as an apprentice
hotelier. It was in Bad Kissengen 500 km away, and I had to leave my nest.
That was an experience, to be forced to stand on your own two feet.”
Michael survived the experience admirably and met and
married his wife Marion in his graduation year, aged 21. “Our wedding
date was the 13th of March,” he said, removing his wedding ring to check
the date. “Thirteen has always been lucky for me, I was born on the 13th
September.”
For the next three years he trained in various
positions in the Kurotel, then Director of Sales and Marketing at the
Dorint Sauerland and then was offered the same position with another hotel
in the chain, the Dorint Hotel Jagdhof, and finally resident manager.
After all this European experience it was then that he
read an advertisement looking for a management couple for a hotel next to
the Indian Ocean in Kenya. “It sounded very attractive. We flew to
Switzerland for the interview and then down to Mombassa to look at the
place. We spent three years there. We never regretted it, but would never
go back to work there. The quality of life was non-existent. You were
forced to live in a compound and could not leave the hotel area. There was
no water, no butter, and no milk for a month at a time. You are spoiled in
Thailand with everything you need and more. In spite of that it was a
wonderful experience; the local staff were really friendly and outgoing
and would do anything for you. We worked as a team.”
For Michael, “Sunday is family day, we always spend
it together” and on that one day off he enjoys tennis, photography,
skiing and music. “Any music: modern or classic or jazz, it doesn’t
matter. I like old style big band jazz as much as hip hop.” Although he
has never been taught, Michael is also a good singer and occasionally
sings at his functions at the Moon River Pub, “Just doing it for fun;
it’s relaxing.”
Just how did he end up in Pattaya? “Colleagues of
Marion’s father were the owners of the Thai Garden Resort and were
looking for managers. So we flew to Frankfurt for the interview and one
week later met them here in Pattaya. By then we had worked out a deal of
what we would do differently and we presented the proposal to them. And
that deal is still going on today. We’re just fortunate that we have
such a positive relationship with the owners.”
Michael is indeed fortunate, because he has found his
home and has his family and friends around him. Family values are the most
important to him. “Here it is an advantage as the whole family is
involved in the business. We have established a young couple and normal
family clientele at the hotel. It is a good friendly atmosphere. Guests
even followed us from Kenya; we still have guests that come here ever
year. It is very rewarding. Success can’t be measured in money. If I
feel I am achieving and my family are also and are happy, then I am
successful.”
Michael has some sage advice for would be foreign hotel
managers. “It is difficult, it is very personal. You have to slow down
and don’t try to change the mentality of the people or their way of
performing. When the point comes and you are not satisfied because you are
not able to turn around many things, then you have to adjust yourself.
Remember that you have chosen to live here and you can give guidance
only.” There will be many a person who reads this who will be nodding
their head in agreement.
Inside this young and attractive exterior there lives a wise soul who
through his many facets is sure to enrich all our lives in some way, in
the next millennium.
Snap Shots: Recording
Progress
by Harry Flashman
While browsing the ‘net the other day, Harry here came
across one of the best little photographic projects seen for a while. The
great thing about this project is that not only does it make you ‘work’ to
produce a particular image, but the final images are eminently marketable.
Interested? YOU could make money out of this!
 Here
is the “before” shot. Now go out and take it again today.
All you have to do is show the progress that has occurred
in any area - particularly the region that you live in - let’s try Pattaya!
The concept is simple - contrast a “now” shot with what was there before.
Sounds too easy? Well, it is not!
Probably one of the hardest aspects is getting the
“before” or “then” shots in the first place. This will take some
scrounging around, particularly in this region of the world, where not much
stock was placed upon the particular moment in time. Buddhism tells you that
all of life is change - so why get excited about recording the moment.
However, some of the greatest sources of the “then”
images are postcards - particularly tourist market postcards. These were
generally of reasonable photographic quality and also depicted the subject
from a good angle.
So where are they? This is where you begin asking all the
Thai people you know if they have any old photographs or postcards. After
that, look in second hand shops, the dusty back corners of old Chinese chemist
shops, funny old stores in Naklua - anywhere. But you do have to get these
images first. Remember that you can always have photographs copied these days
and you do not need the negatives. The Kodak Royal Express (Royal Garden next
to McDonalds on Beach Road) has this wonderful electronic gadgetry that will
do this. So all you have to do is borrow, if you cannot beg or steal! Do not
worry about image quality, by the way, because no one expects old photographs
to be pristine, in fact a little bit of fading and staining looks good in the
final result.
Next part of the project is to find the original area that
was photographed and work out where the shot was taken from. The concept is to
get as close as possible to the original, so that the difference between the
“then” and “now” is just the progress. This does mean looking
critically at the original and working out if it was taken by a wide angle
lens or whatever. If the shot is more than 50 years old, it was probably taken
with a “normal” 50 mm lens, so try that first and look critically through
your viewfinder, while looking at the original as the reference.
Of course, some will be easy, like Pattaya Bay taken from
the Naval Lookout at the top of Pratamnak Hill. Others, like the Nipa Lodge
will be harder - just what angle did they take it from? It is also good to try
and duplicate the time of day. Late afternoon or morning? Look at the shadows
and work it out!
Now having done all your homework, go out and re-take all
those shots from yesteryear. Again, be very critical with yourself. You do
want to be able to see that this is a re-take of the original. Near enough is
not good enough. Some pictures may be too confusing if there are no landmarks
and you will have to reject some of them, unfortunately. But you will score
some gold!
These new ones are worth having printed as at least 10"x8" and
mounted side by side with the faded originals. This is what makes them so
interesting (and so saleable)! You also have the choice of leaving the
originals as small prints beside the new enlargement, or blowing the old ones
up to 10"x8" as well. Believe me, these will sell! Everyone wants to
show “life as it was” - it’s up to you to do it first!
Modern Medicine: Getting
Older - if you're lucky
by Dr Iain Corness
The other day I received a call from Australia from one
of my old friends. Three of us had shared a house as undergraduates and we
have remained friends for 35 years. He was most upset as he related the
medical problems that had beset our friends and associates in the past few
days.
It sounded like a nightmare morning in the outpatients
department. My friend’s mother has just died, our mutual flat mate had
split up from his wife of 30 years and was in the midst of deep
depression. Another had just been diagnosed with lung cancer and
secondaries in the brain and another with breast cancer, the same fate as
her mother who had died from it.
Were all these just unfortunate coincidences?
Regrettably, no. The not so palatable truth is that all my university
friends (and myself) are getting older. We are no longer in that bloom of
youth where we considered ourselves to be 10 feet tall and bullet proof!
We are now in our late 50’s or early 60’s, an age when many of us will
have to face our own mortality.
It was not all that long ago that you were lucky to
even reach 50. The average is now over 70 - but there’s the rub. It is
an average. For everyone who lives past 70, there has to be someone who
doesn’t get there! Mathematical fact! Even in my own family, my dear
mother who is still going strong in her 80’s has been offset by my
father who popped off in his mid 50’s.
As I have also mentioned in this column before - we are
all mortal. We have to die of something (and in my case, nothing could be
worse than dying of boredom) and “old age” is not a cause of death. It
is purely a descriptive term for the particular age group. Like
‘teenager’, and you don’t die of that either (even though some of
them might drive you to drink)!
What happens to you at this age will depend a lot on
three factors. The first is Genetics, the second is what exposure to the
hardships and vagaries of life you have had and the third is purely
‘luck’.
If you come from a family where longevity is the norm,
expect to live for a long time too. If you have worked as a hard drinking,
smoking coal miner get good insurance, quickly. If you have always been
‘lucky’ just hope that luck continues!
Of course, having a full check-up and knowing what
condition you are really in is a decided advantage.
So what could I say to my distraught friend in
Australia? Our flat mate’s depression will lift, he will be OK in the
long term. The other two? All that can be done is to say that with he and
I feeling so good, statistically there must be two not so good. I am sorry
it is them, but that is the law of nature. I asked him to pass on my
regards and my hopes that life, no matter how short from now on, will be
kind to them.
We are all mortal.
 Dear
Hillary,
Bit harsh on Lucky Lenny last week weren’t you? He
didn’t actually say if the partnership was in a Thai owned bar (although
if this is the case Lenny... run!). Don’t forget there are very many
successful farang owned bars in town that have been here for years... ok,
we all know about a couple of Go-Go bars that allegedly have dozens of 25%
partners but these are exceptions! Yes, it’s a struggle to start but as
long as you do your groundwork first, then put the hours in, establish
yourself within the ex-pat community, make your customers feel welcome and
tolerate the “first time in Thailand” madness it can be an extremely
colourful and rewarding life.
By the way, thought you’d like to know about this
one. My girlfriend recently sold the “motocye” I bought her to
purchase 2 buffalo. She said she’s fed up with all the falang jokes
about “buffalo sick, please send money” (there’s even a T-shirt
about it now!) and so now if one falls sick she can put the “spare” to
work while the other recuperates. Pretty smart, eh!?
Regards,
Spicy Martin
Dear Spicy Martin,
Yes, you might think Hillary was a bit harsh, but then
again anyone who has to write to Hillary asking whether a 50% share in a
beer bar @ 10 thousand pound sterling is a good investment, needs a nanny
or at the very least an escort to the plane out of here. Do you think
he’s done the “ground work” that you yourself advocate? I do agree
with most things you say, however I too distinctly recall recommending to
Lenny that he do his research first, “and by that I just do not mean
sitting drinking in bars,” was the exact words I used. The book “Too
Many Women” by Collin Piprell has a comic tale on farang owned bars in
Bangkok and indeed endorses your viewpoint. Thanks for your letter. P.S.
I’m glad the buffalo are well!
Dear Hillary,
Can you tell me why in a predominately Buddhist country
that Thais celebrate a Western Christmas, which is all about celebrating
Christianity and the life of Christ? They not only do this they do it with
so much enthusiasm, with thousands of lights and balloons, red Santa
outfits in all the bars, Christmas trees with fake SNOW for heavens sake,
and worse, ghastly Christmas carols in the stores that we all came over
here to get away from! Then there is New Year, which is mayhem and madness
of fireworks, and is not even Thai New Year! I thought Songkran was Thai
New Year and the Thais had their millennium celebration 543 years ago,
this being the year 2543 in the Thai calendar. Why go all out to celebrate
festivals they don’t understand at all?
Ian
Dear Ian,
The short answer is, ‘Why not?’ Thais love sanuk
(fun) and will find any excuse for a party and a holiday. Pretty good
outlook on life it seems to me. Can’t say Hillary swings with the
Christmas carols though. As far as the Thai calendar goes, they officially
start every year, no matter what the number, at January 1. Before the
economic downturn companies traditionally paid workers a bonus on December
31. Now that you have mentioned it, the Thai year 2543 is perhaps why
Thais are generally not fazed by the millennium bug since it came down 543
years ago and ate the rice harvest. Best recommended apparel for New Years
Eve here are flak jackets and earplugs. Have a good one.
Dear Hillary,
Are there no rules of the road here? Just today I saw a
young girl on a step-through motorcycle, she couldn’t have been more
than twelve, wobbling her way into the traffic on Sukhumvit Road outside
Lotus. She had no crash helmet and neither did either of her two
passengers. Isn’t there a minimum age for driving and why aren’t car
safety belts and motorcycle crash helmets enforced for all passengers? I
don’t scare easy, having driven lorries in Paris, believe me they are
crazy there, but it seems to me most Thai drivers and passengers have a
death wish. They continually cut down the inside of you on motorbikes and
rush in front of you into the minimal gap you kept for safe driving
distance, stop dead in front with no warning, and sit or stand on the open
tailgate of an overloaded pick up. Don’t they have any regard for their
own life and safety? What is more, in an accident the foreigner is always
in the wrong. Can you explain this?
Frances
Dear Frances,
Yes of course there are road rules here but no one enforces them very
much. This is Thailand, and isn’t that why you came here in the first
place? As far as the minimum driving age here, I think it is age 8 up
country and age 10 on the highway (joking). I agree with you that driving
or riding here is a hazard for the unwary. The answer is, “beware”.
Thais do value life, but you have to realize they have a different
perspective on it, they also believe they get another go at it, so easy
come easy go, I guess. The farang always being in the wrong is simple to
explain from a Thai viewpoint, “If you weren’t there in the first
place the accident wouldn’t have happened.” I hope you had a great
time at New Year and just walked everywhere.
GRAPEVINE
Millennial
breaking news
If you are reading this column by
candlelight and the banks are still closed, we are all presumably in
Big Trouble. But, by the time we went to press, the New Year
celebrations seemed to have gone off without too many hitches. Only
one drunken farang was arrested late on December 31st
for throwing buckets of water on passersby in Soi Post Office. He was
told by the understanding fuzz to come back in April when behaving
like a complete idiot is perfectly legal. However, contrary to
expectation, the Y2K bug did not after all cause Pattaya Mail
to disappear in a mushroom cloud. Dire predictions, even hopes in some
squalid quarters, that this particular issue would at least be printed
upside down in mumbo jumbo or that vulgar pictures of undressed
persons would appear on page two without a Vaseline smear have proved
to be totally unfounded. The sum total of disasters was that one of
the innumerable editors got drunk, failed to set his alarm clock on
New Year’s Eve and missed the early selection of funnies on the
Cartoon Network. All a bit of a letdown really.
Pattaya codpieces
Mind you, Pattaya will never be the same
again. Business giants here, not to be confused with foreign mafias,
are all set to cash in on the magic expression “2000” in the hope
that the festive season’s spending frenzy can be extended into the
rainy months. One supermarket, renamed 7-2011, is throwing in an extra
pack if you buy a couple of thousand toilet rolls. A new go go club
opening next week will be called Girls 2000. There is some dispute
whether this means that there are already 1,999 such establishments in
the city (probably an underestimate) or whether the new bar is
somewhat overstaffed, or even whether the cost of a beer has risen
rather alarmingly since Christmas. Meanwhile a notorious gay dive, in
an area still off limits to American servicemen, is leafleting the
beach with its Man To Man Promotional Offer 2000. The wording is not
easy to follow but, it seems, if you spend 2000 baht in one evening of
jollity then you can borrow for free a book from a secret pile of
illicit material kept in the back room. Titles are said to include
Plato’s early discourses on why women don’t amount to a row of
beans and the concise history of Renaissance codpieces. |
Popular
culture
Expect too to see the resort’s cinemas and
the TV networks reviving the best of your favorite movies. Scheduled
for release in January are The Beast From Only 2000 Fathoms,
2000 Rillington Place and How To Marry A
Millenniumaire. Hitchcock’s masterpiece is being remade as the 2039
Steps. Elsewhere in the media industry, plans are afoot to refloat
musical numbers such as Tea for 2000, Will You Still Love Me
When I’m 64K and 2000 Brides for 7 Brothers. Expect a
rush of books on Nostradamus, not to mention the puzzling Nun of Monza,
arguing that the quadrigrams have been misunderstood by previous
writers and that a new date of 2100 has been set for Armageddon.
Apparently, if you attribute sequential prime numbers to the letters
in the name N-o-s-t-r-a-d-a-m-u-s, multiply the total by 13 and take
away your birth date, that very year is invariably the conclusion.
Quite amazing.
Liposuction sticks
In the shorter term, Jomtien pundits are
already predicting what the year 2000 will bring in terms of new
experiences. You can already have your ashes blasted into the Milky
Way galaxy courtesy of a tiny capsule and a rocket, but within months
the world’s first wedding in space is to be announced. Cynics are
already saying this development is a right wing plot to cut the rising
divorce rate as the opportunities for infidelity could prove limited
as you gaze on passing collapsed stars from a porthole. Even
children’s toys will not be spared as new technology continues its
awesome advance. Marlene, the liposuction doll with smaller thighs, is
a distinct marketing possibility by July. Next Christmas’s presents
for the young are likely to include electric train models which run on
rocket fuel and virtual reality tricycles which can break the sound
barrier. One enterprising company is intending to market activity
holidays called Weightless Wrestling which should certainly cut down
on broken backs brought on by a half Nelson.
The end is not nigh
If the world really had ended on December 31st,
there would by now be a lot fewer doomsday cultists pestering you with
their literature on doorsteps and at airports. But it didn’t happen
and celebrations of 2000 look set to continue for the next several
years. Indeed, there are lots of people saying that the actual
millennium begins on January 1st
2001 as some early medieval monk cocked up the first calendar by
twelve months. Worse, followers of Taoism believe that a new age will
begin on September 11th
2003, but that’s probably because their mortgages run out then. One
Pattaya crank, who lives in Jomtien Nivate so say no more, is actually
predicting that the millennium will only dawn after Pattaya baht buses
have been abolished. Clearly, he has little knowledge of the public
transport system operating in greater Manchester. All in all, it looks
like millennial fever will be with us for some time yet. A bright
spark on the Internet has already opened a web site on preparing for
Y3K. After all, there are less than 400,000 shopping days left before
the final Christmas. |
Dining Out: Sher
‘E’ Punjab - the lion roars!
by Miss Terry Diner
 The Sher ‘E’ Punjab literally means the Lion of Punjab,
and owner Binny and Manager Garry are certainly not keeping their lion caged up.
Realising that there is intense competition amongst the restaurants in Pattaya,
they felt it was time for the Lion to roar, and announced two new items in the
Sher ‘E’ Punjab line-up.
The first is a candlelight Indian Buffet on Friday evenings
and the second is the new Beer Garden they have opened next door.
At Garry’s request, the Dining Out Team made a return visit
to Sher ‘E’ Punjab to review the new developments. The first aspect to see
is the new grassy Beer Garden, the old car parking area has been halved (you can
park in the hotel car park across the street if there’s not enough) and a
secluded garden has been produced. Singha beer on tap, too. We found that it was
certainly a cool spot for some nighttime eating and will undoubtedly be a
favourite in the hot summer months.
Inside the restaurant the d้cor and ambience are slowly
changing, too. Gone are the bright lights and bare walls and in their place some
nice subdued lighting, Indian paintings and the waitresses now have beautiful
white flowing pants suits (called “Salvar-Kameez” we were told) with a black
sequined bolero jacket called a Punjabi Chunni. On every table was an oil lamp
candle and the total package has certainly now given the restaurant a romantic
Indian atmosphere.
But it was the new buffet we had really come to see and Binny
and Garry have produced a 250 Baht, all you can eat buffet for Friday evenings.
The actual items in the buffet will change every week, but on that first night
included Vegetable Samosas, Peas Pullao, Salad and Raita, Pindi Chana, Dal fry,
Mutton Vindaloo and Butter Chicken. To go along with these you can have any of
the Sher ‘E’ Punjab almost unlimited choice of breads - eighteen to be
precise, Garry assured me. Most of these are cooked in the Tandoori oven and
they have one outside at the corner of the Beer Garden so guests can see how
these ovens work.
The first time we went to this restaurant we were fortunate
to have the Indian food connoisseur Graham Macdonald along with us - but this
time we were on our own. This is where a buffet concept works so well. You can
try small quantities of every dish and then back up for the ones you really like
and miss the ones not to your taste.
 We began with the Samosas - these were very light and
flavoursome, and we definitely backed up for seconds of these. For our next
course Madame piled some Pullao Rice (with peas) on her plate, along with the
garden salad and the Raita, which is a yoghurt mixture. This disappeared very
quickly and I noticed Madame up for a second helping. Not being too keen on
yoghurt I decided to try a very small portion of Pindi Chana instead. This is a
‘dry’ chickpea curry and had a “crunchy”, spiciness to it. We were both
very surprised by this dish.
Still with some space to fill, I missed the Dal and the
Mutton Vindaloo and went next to the Butter Chicken. With some more Pullao rice
I selected a small spoonful, with three pieces of chicken in the creamy curry.
It was fabulous! Leaping up from my chair and shouldering my way into the
line-up I heaped more Butter Chicken on my plate and sat there enjoying myself
immensely. I looked across at Madame, who had a similarly sized plate of Butter
Chicken and we laughed! With some Singha Gold to wash it all down (thanks,
Garry) and some house white wine for Madame, it was some enchanted (Indian)
evening.
We can thoroughly recommend the Sher ‘E’ Punjab’s all you can eat
Indian Buffet, and at B. 250 it is very reasonably priced. Try it one Friday
evening.
Animal Crackers: Return
to Rainbow Bridge
by Mirin MacCarthy
Readers Story by Jynda and Annika Foley
The little dog arrived at the Rainbow Bridge, and a pack
of dogs rushed up to greet him. He braced himself, expecting a fight, but
this was the first pack that wagged their tails and kissed him instead of
attacking him. It was beautiful here, and everyone was nice to him. None of
them had been born in a puppy mill, like he had, and used for dog-bait
fighting and left to die in a shelter because he was a mix-breed,
battle-scarred cur and wasn’t cute. They explained why they were
waiting... for their humans who loved them.
“What is love?” he asked, and God let him go back to
earth, and find out. Warm, and dark, he squeezed in with the others and
waited for the day to be born. Scared, he held back as long as he could, but
finally got dragged out, by his hind feet. Hands without fur held him gently
and rubbed him dry and opened his mouth and guided him to a warm nipple with
milk. He didn’t get a good hold on it, because one of his big fat brothers
pushed him aside. The human hand moved the other puppy to another nipple and
held his body, so he could drink.
“Ahhh, that’s better,” he thought, and drank until
his jaws got tired and he curled up to sleep next to his warm hairy mother.
“I remember this,” he mused... “Too bad I’ll have to grow up to be
hit, left out in the cold and rain, and used for dog-bait fighting, and die
as an unclaimed rescue dog. I remember what it’s like, being a dog,” he
thought sadly.
That night, he crawled up to his mother and tried to
nurse, but he kept getting pushed off to the side. When they were full, the
big brothers and sisters got their bottoms cleaned and he finally latched on
to a nipple, but the human hands weren’t there to hold him up, and there
wasn’t any milk in any of the nipples, anyway. He was weak and so tiny. It
was even hard to stay upright, and he fell over on his back and couldn’t
right himself.
So he began to cry, and suddenly the human hands were
there, holding him up and putting a rubber thing in his mouth. It didn’t
taste or feel like mother, but it was warm and made the ache in his tummy go
away. He was having trouble breathing... His lungs weren’t fully
developed, because he had waited too long to join the others in the womb, as
he took one last romp at the Rainbow Bridge.
He could feel the heartbeat of the human, who had laid
him on her chest and covered him with a soft cloth, keeping him warm, and
soothing his bony body with gentle circling touches.
He kept thinking of his new friends who had been so nice
to him at the bridge and asked God if he could go back. God said “Yes, but
not just yet. You wanted to experience Love.” So for several hours (seemed
like days but it was dark and he couldn’t tell what time it was), the
human supplemented his feeding and let him experience the warmth of his
mother’s body and tongue, and the pile of warm soft littermates.
He got weaker, and the human held him more often, leaving
the littermates to sleep in a pile while he got caressed, kissed, and got to
listen to the heartbeat which was strong and loving.
Finally God came back and asked, “are you ready to come
back to the Rainbow Bridge?”
“Yes,” he responded with a little sorrow, because the
human didn’t want to let him go, and was crying.
He pushed the air out of his lungs and floated back to
the Rainbow Bridge and looked back at the human, who was still crying and
holding the limp body that he had borrowed for his trip.
“Thank you, God,” he said. “Love is beautiful, and I will wait near
the Bridge and let the human know, when she arrives, that I loved her,
too.”
Auto Mania:
The 17 Ring Circus
by Dr. Iain Corness
Y2K is upon us, and the new calendar for the F1 circus is
cast in blancmange, but at this stage does still start in Oz and finishes
this time in Malaysia, which may or may not be a good thing for Sepang. A
cliff hanger will benefit ticket sales, but a foregone conclusion will be
disastrous. It is good to see that Spa Francorchamps has been reinstated,
but the Brits are not too chuffed about June Silverstone being rescheduled
to April. Only 14 days, too, between the Italian GP at Monza and the new USA
GP at Indianapolis. The teams are going to be busy.
Here it is, pencil it in your diaries - March 12
Melbourne Australia, March 26 Interlagos Brazil, April 9 Imola San Marino,
April 23 Silverstone UK, May 7 Barcelona Spain, May 21 Nurburgring European,
June 4 Monte Carlo Monaco, June 18 Montreal Canada, July 2 Magny Cours
France, July 16 A1-Ring Austria, July 30 Hockenheim Germany, August 13
Budapest Hungary, August 27 Spa Francorchamps Belgium, September 10 Monza
Italy, September 24 Indianapolis USA, October 8 Suzuka Japan, October 22
Sepang Malaysia.
The driver line-up is almost finalised with only the
second seats at Minardi and Arrows still undecided, not that any of the
seeded drivers would be lining up for these guaranteed last two slots on the
grid runners. If Minardi do get a better engine then they might just climb
up the grid a tad, but with Arrows adopting the dreadful Supertec, do not
expect them to do anything better than before. Of course, Flavio Briatore
might just come up with a ripper Supertec engine for Y2K, but then on the
other hand I always do carry an umbrella to stop being hit by raining pig
poo.
 The
very first 901, with its design and production team. The chief of engine
development (shirtsleeves, foreground) is Ferdinand Piech - a famous name in
the automotive world today.
Here are the drivers. McLaren Mercedes (Hakkinen &
Coulthard), Ferrari (M. Schumacher & Barichello), Jordan Mugen-Honda (Frentzen
& Trulli), Jaguar (Irvine & Herbert), Williams BMW (R. Schumacher
&? Zanardi), Benetton Playlife (Fisichella & Wurz), Prost Peugeot (Alesi
& Heidfeld), Sauber Petronas (Diniz & Salo), BAR Honda (Villeneuve
& Zonta), Arrows Supertec (Pedro de la Rosa), Minardi Telefonica (Gene).
In preliminary testing, both Jaguar (nee Stewart Ford)
and BAR with their new Honda engine look promising, as does Trulli in the
Jordan, who has been setting cracking times already. Barichello is in
trouble left foot braking at Ferrari (Schumi senior does it that way, so
Rubens will have to adapt), but Formula 3000 champion Heidfeld is already
showing much promise under Alain Prost’s tuition. An interesting year
ahead!
Autotrivia Quiz
Last century I asked about the initial numbering of the
Porsche 911. The correct answer was that it was called the Porsche 901, and
in fact, the engine casings still have “901” numbers cast into them. The
reason that Porsche had to hurriedly renumber the cars was that Peugeot had
taken out copyright on all numbers with a zero in the middle, and even
though they were still only in the Two Oh Three stages, they were far
thinking enough to envisage a Nine Oh One for the future.
So on to more local autotrivia for this week’s
question. What did Prince Bira and Lofty England, one of the most famous
Jaguar mechanics of all time, have in common? That really is an easy one to
start Y2K. The first correct answer to be faxed to 427 596 or emailed to
[email protected] wins the FREE beer.
Birabongse Bhanutej Bhanubhandh
Having mentioned Prince Bira this week, it is probably
fitting to look a little at this man, who died just over 14 years ago. His
full name was as the heading of this article, but he was known merely as B.
Bira.
He was indeed a Prince of old Siam and was born in the
Purabha Palace in Bangkok, July 15th 1914. He was educated at Eton in the UK
and was a very talented sculptor. However, one of his other loves was motor
racing and he began his racing career in 1935 in a Riley Imp.
The catalyst for this was another Siamese Prince, his
cousin Prince Chula Chakrabongse, who bought Bira an ERA for his 21st
birthday. Together they formed White Mouse racing team with Chula as the
manager and Bira the driver and campaigned three very famous ERA’s,
Romulus, Remus and Hanuman.
In fact, Bira was one of the most successful ERA drivers
of that era (no pun intended), winning at Monaco in 1936, plus another 6 GP
victories. Bira won the British Racing Drivers Club Gold Star for three
years consecutively and set lap records at Phoenix Park, Donington and
Crystal Palace.
Unfortunately for Prince Bira, two setbacks to his career
were to come. The first was WW II and the second was a split with his cousin
Prince Chula. After the war, Bira attempted to continue on in the manner
that he had in the heady pre-war days. However, he was not an organiser and
the financial background was no longer as secure as it had been. His skill
was still evident, winning the first post-war race in Britain in 1946,
Formula Libre events at Chimay in Belgium and the inaugural race at
Zandvoort in 1948.
But from there, he never scaled the dizzy heights again.
Without Chula and the well-oiled White Mouse team he could not showcase his
undoubted talents. Under his own Ecurie Siam banner he ran some Gordini’s
and Maserati’s but with little success. Despite running a Maserati 250F
and winning the New Zealand Grand Prix in 1954, it was his swansong as a GP
driver.
15 years later he did run in the 1969 Vientiane to
Singapore Rally in a Mitsubishi Colt, but even though there was the name
“Prince Bira” signwritten on the front mudguard, he had entered as
merely B. Bhanubhandh.
After that, medical problems began to surface and his
demise with a heart attack, in the Baron’s Court Underground railway
station just before Xmas in 1985, was a sad ending for one of the greatest
talents of his day. He was an accomplished sculptor, a more than adequate
competition sailor and one of the top racing drivers. It was just a shame
that fate conspired against him in so many ways.
If nothing else, he is remembered here in Pattaya with the Bira
International Circuit on Highway 36. There is a shrine to his memory just
inside the main gate. It is worth a visit even if just to ponder on what
“might have been”.
Fitness Tips:
Your Favorite Muscle group
by David Garred,
Club Manager Dusit Resort Sports Club
G’day Pattaya, Happy New Year and welcome back to all
after what I am sure was a wonderful holiday for you. I want to start off
the year talking about the most effective ways to train the muscles in the
abdominal region.
The Do’s and Don’ts of abdominal training:
The abdominal muscle group is a key area to train. This
muscle group has an important role in posture, spinal health and general
body appearance. It is necessary to consider the abdominal muscle group in
all exercises because activation of these muscles improves the performance
of other muscles by giving them a stable base to work from.
Keep in mind however, that abdominal exercises alone will
not remove body fat from the abdominal area. Combinations of long term
dietary changes and regular exercise are needed to address the issues of
excessive abdominal fat. The perception of a flabby tummy is usually due to
the combination of two factors - firstly, it is the amount of fat deposited
around the abdomen and secondly, it is the activity level of the deep
abdominal muscles (the most important being a muscle named transverse
abdominus). It is important to learn how to activate these muscles when
performing abdominal exercises, as this muscle group is the most important
muscle group for maintaining posture and achieving a narrow mid-section.
When performing abdominal exercise DO:
* Try to draw the navel toward the spine (i.e., keep the
waist narrow). This will help to activate the deep muscles that narrow your
waist and support the spine.
* Keep the movements slow in crunch work - 3 seconds up
and 3 seconds down is a good pace.
* Ensure you have a good neck position during crunch work
by keeping the chin slightly tucked in (imagine you have an orange between
your chin and your chest).
* Breathe, slowly, out during the up phase of the
exercise.
* Vary the exercises. Crunch sit-ups should form no more
than 50% of your routine. Adding abdominal work in prone and standing
positions is a very effective method of consolidating muscle conditioning.
Ask your instructor / trainer with variations in abdominal training.
DON’TS:
* Don’t arch the back during abdominal work.
* Fast movements in abdominal training are counter
productive - remember to keep it slow and keep it narrow.
* Try to avoid pulsing movements, as they substantially
decrease the contribution of the deep abdominal muscles.
* There is no need to vary leg positions (e.g., legs bent
at 90 Degrees to you side), as these positions have no advantage over a
conventional crunch sit up, and they may in fact promote dysfunctional
movement patterns and cause back problems.
* The quality of the movement rather than the number of
repetitions performed or the weight lifted is the important thing. There is
no real need to add a lot of weight to effectively train the abdominal area.
* There is no such thing as an exercise that works only
the lower abdominals or can an exercise or device ‘effectively isolate’
this lower section. Don’t let yourself be led astray by false claims.
* Don’t pull your neck in with abdominal work. The idea
is to cradle the head with the hands or rest it on a bent arm.
Tips for using an Ab-roller (when used correctly a great
machine):
1. Make sure the neck is supported
2. Flatten the back a little
3. Keep the movement slow - breathe out while you roll up
and breathe in when you roll down.
4. Keep the waist narrow throughout the movement.
5. Avoid using the momentum of the bar to roll yourself
up and down. It’s fine to grip the bar, as long as the movement is kept
slow.
Finally, Frequency of Abdominal training. Five minutes
every second day is plenty of time to spend on focus exercises for the
abdominals. More importantly, you need to develop the habit of recruiting
the abdominal muscles in all activities you undertake, not just training.
It is as good a muscle group as any to get yourself
started on.
Carpe’ Diem
Copyright 1999 Pattaya Mail Publishing Co.Ltd.
370/7-8 Pattaya Second Road, Pattaya City, Chonburi 20260, Thailand
Tel.66-38 411 240-1, 413 240-1, Fax:66-38 427 596; e-mail: [email protected] |
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