Family Money: Happy New Millennium!

By Leslie Wright

In this space at the end of last year I ventured to make some predictions for 1999. Some were more-or-less serious, and some were just for fun. Regular readers have reminded me that I promised to review these forecasts at the end of this year-century-millennium. So let’s have a brief look at how accurate my tea leaves were.

#1: My first prediction concerned the likely movements of the Baht over the year, in light of people’s concerns at the time that it would plunge back to below 50 to the US$. I felt it would stay in the mid-30s for the first three months of ’99; that the opposing economic forces would just about cancel each other out; that the economy would probably remain just about steady; and the Baht would similarly remain within the 35-40 range.

Well, although the Baht did not strengthen in the first quarter as much as I thought it might (due to bad news continuing to surface about various local banks), overall the Baht has fluctuated more or less as I forecast, and is currently hovering at around 39 to the US$.

#2: I forecast that Sterling would remain strong and steady for the first three months of 1999 while doubts remained over the Euro. I felt that there might be a net outflow of Sterling as anti-Euro sentiment weakened, dropping to around 1.60 against the Dollar by mid-year.

As it has turned out, the doubts about the Euro have if anything increased, and it has continued its downward slide against other major currencies - especially in the 4th quarter of the year.

I also aired the fears held by some that Britain’s Labour government might interfere with monetary policy (as was their wont in the past), which would have had an adverse effect on Sterling. Fortunately this did not happen and as a result, Sterling has remained strong throughout the year.

#3: I predicted that interest rates in the major economies would remain low and not be raised “until at least the second half of the year.” Events proved this forecast right on the mark.

#4 & 5: I also predicted that interest rates on local bank deposits would remain low, “perhaps being lowered yet again around March or April”. Well, this also proved correct - although I admit I did not foresee the unpublicised introduction in August & September of two-tiered interest rates for Thais & foreigners. (Nonetheless, it was in this space that the moving of the banking goalposts was first brought to the investing public’s attention, rather than in the mainstream press. For this, a bonus point should perhaps be awarded to the Pattaya Mail!)

I also predicted that the much-discussed non-performing loans would continue to be a problem throughout 1999, with much heated debate but not much action being taken about clearing them, due largely to the influential positions held by the principals involved. While the long-awaited bankruptcy laws eventually did pass (but amended as I predicted would happen), and many outstanding debts have been restructured, some of the larger and more troublesome NPLs have not been significantly reduced. Indeed, recent news indicates local banks are still plagued by concerns over their ability (or otherwise) to meet their capitalisation requirements for the coming year.

#6: As predicted, the land reform bill so eagerly awaited by local expatriates (in the anticipation that foreigners would then be able to own land on which to build their dream houses) has not yet passed into law; and the bill now awaiting signature was (as predicted) amended; and again as predicted, effectively still excludes the vast majority of local expatriates. Jingoistic fears and nationalistic ‘principles’ continue to be, as predicted, the rationale behind these protectionist moves.

#7: “The U.S. economy will have a few glitches in 1999-” (remember September & October?) “-but probably not have a major tumble so long as investor sentiment is not too rattled by short-sighted commentators predicting the end of the world’s economy yet again and there’s no clear alternative for investors to place the wall of money that’s been driving the bull run for the past several years.” Right on the money, as it turned out.

However, it is worth noting that the consensus view amongst analysts and fund managers advocates a cautious approach as far as the U.S. stock market is concerned, going forward into the New Year.

#8 forecast that the Latin American economies would remain uncertain for the first quarter of 1999, and start to show positive signs during the second quarter, with market stability in that region “very much depending on what now happens in Brazil.” Here again my forecast proved correct; and fortunately for investors, Brazil got itself sorted out quicker than many analysts had feared, and relative stability returned to the region’s stock markets as a result.

#9 said: “Investors may look to start putting money back into selected Asian markets by mid-year - except in Indonesia, which will get worse before it starts to get better.” Events have proven this one right on the mark also, and Korea proved a particularly good investment area this year after addressing the problems that surfaced the previous year.

#10 predicted that the proposed financial & banking reforms in Japan which everyone knows should have been implemented at least five years ago would continue to be debated and resisted, and for much the same reasons as similar delays occur in Thailand. This proved to be the case; but watered-down financial reforms as well as a package to stimulate the economy have been partially implemented.

In anticipation that these painful reforms would not go through, however, I forecast that the Japanese economy would remain sluggish throughout the year. Here I was rather wide of the mark. The Japanese stock market has in fact performed well in the second half of ’99, and it seems this may continue at least through the first quarter of 2000.

#11 said: “Hong Kong property prices will still remain down from their highs before the 1997 crisis,” (which they have); “but the stock market will do okay, with the Hang Seng Index fluctuating between 10-11,000 and perhaps breaking through this barrier in the fourth quarter.”

Well, although my prediction proved more or less correct overall, the Hang Seng Index has actually performed somewhat better this year than I foresaw. Fluctuating between 10,000-13,000 for most of the year, it finally rose above 14,000 in mid-November, and then soared through 16,000 in December.

But the Hong Kong stock market is a particularly volatile one, where erratic investor sentiment can drive the market up or down almost overnight - and hence is notoriously unpredictable.

#12: “The European economies look set to remain stable through the first half of ’99, and international bonds will also fare well.” While most of Europe did okay throughout 1999, bonds generally did not. This came as a surprise to many financial managers & analysts, since economic theory was blown out of the window by investor sentiment, leading international investors to eschew bonds in favour of the perceived higher return from equities. The wall of money continued to drive stock market prices ever higher, and the Fed raising interest rates in the latter part of the year cooled the US market only slightly. This has resulted in international and US bonds being seen in an even less favourable light than in the early part of the year, and are unlikely to perform any better going forward.

Thus even though I got this one half right, the fact that I erroneously recommended holding bonds leads me to discount the half-right prediction to a zero score for this one.

#13 predicted there would be various protests about the removal of the ‘illegal’ structures along Beach Road, resulting in more deliberations and delays to the construction of the new jetty and beachfront, and that these structures would not have been removed before the end of the year. Unsurprisingly, the situation is virtually unchanged from this time last year.

#14 also wasn’t too hard to get right - that the long-awaited water treatment plant wouldn’t be operational by year’s end (which it isn’t); that the diggings would have been completed (well, almost); and the dug-up roads would have been resurfaced; but the rainy season would have created new bumps and potholes due to the surfacing having been not quite as sturdy as the old one. We all know what the situation is on this issue, so further comment here would be superfluous.

#15: Again, an easy one: that there would be lots of bars, hotels and restaurants for sale in Pattaya. A glance through the Classified section of any week’s Pattaya Mail proves the correctness of this one.

#16 predicted that in 1999 lots of small fortunes would be made here, most of which started off as larger ones; #17 said that lots of bar-girls would fall madly in love with ageing farangs, who would then take them out of that life to set up house together (in her name, of course) with the plan of living out their Golden Years together in blissful contentment; and #18 suggested that lots of former bar-girls would split up with their farang husbands or boyfriends and become bar-girls again, but some would now own the bar. I know personally of several cases that prove the validity of these three tongue-in-cheek predictions, and I would guess most readers do too, but I’m still going to claim three points for these easy forecasts.

So by my reckoning, I scored 15 1/2 correct out of 18 - which in percentage terms, is 86%. I hope readers will grant that this is not too shabby, since although some of my forecasts were only for fun and easily predictable by anyone with a little knowledge of the local scene, over half were more serious and of potentially greater significance to an investor’s pocket - and much more difficult to call.

I’ll therefore venture out onto the same shaky limb again, and let you know next week what my predictions are for the Year 2000 - if our computers, printers and communications systems haven’t crashed already!

May your Millennium celebrations be filled with sanuk, and the New Year peaceful and prosperous for us all.

If you have any comments or queries on this article, or about other topics concerning investment matters, contact Leslie Wright directly by fax on (038) 232522 or e-mail [email protected]. Further details and back articles can be accessed on his firm’s website on www.westminsterthailand.com.

Editor’s note: Leslie sometimes receives e-mails to which he is unable to respond due to the sender’s automatic return address being incorrect. If you have sent him an e-mail to which you have not received a reply, this may be why. To ensure his prompt response to your enquiry, please include your complete return e-mail address, or a contact phone/fax number.

Leslie Wright is Managing Director of Westminster Portfolio Services (Thailand) Ltd., a firm of independent financial advisors providing advice to expatriate residents of the Eastern Seaboard on personal financial planning and international investments.

The Computer Doctor

by Richard Bunch

Since this will be my last column before the Millennium is upon us, I thought it topical to write about some of the truths, myths and anecdotes that are appropriate at this time. Although I will deal with the issues likely to come into play on the computer side, I will also touch upon other areas that affect our everyday life.

Unless you have been in a cocoon, you cannot have escaped the stories that abound regarding Y2K and the millennium bug. It seems to me to be common misnomer that if equipment goes past midnight on 31st December then all will be well. This is not strictly true since the millennium bug has the potential to strike at any time, when a computer or other electronic device calls or uses a date after the 31st December. Some systems will not be affected, some sectors have been using the year 2000 for many years’ already; a classic example is the life assurance companies. In any event, if a problem does manifest itself, generally it will not be insurmountable and can be fixed, albeit that companies and to a lesser extent, individual households should have addressed and corrected problems long ago.

The good news is that when you wake up on the 1st having no doubt celebrated to excess, the aspirin will be to hand and the toaster will still toast, burnt as usual? The kettle will still boil and the fridge will still hold that ice cold ‘hair of the dog’. In actual fact, the so called millennium bug can only affect appliances that use a year date, so the fridge, washing machine, TV and almost all the other domestic appliances will be Y2K compliant.

The majority of household appliances that use a year date have been pre-programmed to accept the year 2000 and beyond. Should the fax machine, your watch, camcorder, etc., display the wrong date it can usually be reset and in any event will continue to work. However, if your VCR displays the wrong date then it will make it difficult to record using the timer function, although in manual mode it will continue to work normally. You can check your VCR compatibility by setting the date to 31/12/99 and time at say 23:55. Program the timer to record in 10 minutes time and then watch to see if the clock ticks over OK and the recording starts. If it passes this test then to be sure, repeat the test for 29/02/2000. If this, too, is OK then it is fair to assume your VCR is Y2K ready.

With regards to the trusty car, although modern cars have an abundance of chips on board, generally they are not date dependant so your car should not be affected, and of course, the same applies to pick-ups, trucks and motorcycles.

On the computer side of things, a bit of potted history first. Essentially, the millennium bug is an event that will be triggered if a computer, or for that matter other electronic device doesn’t recognise the year 2000. It is a by-product of the early days of computing when programmers used a two-digit date instead of four-digits to conserve resources, principally memory. This means that instead of recognising 00 as the year 2000, they are more likely to consider it 1900. These problems can be exacerbated still further as the year 1900 was not a leap year but the year 2000 is, so the date could move from 28th February to 1st March missing out 29th February 2000. This would of course mean the computer date would be running one day ahead of real-time. A good way to demonstrate the anomalies that could occur is with an elderly relative who for the sake of argument has been clean living all her life, non smoking, no alcohol and maybe no well... now she has reached the ripe old age of 104 and receives a letter from her local education authority advising she has been granted a nursery school place for the forthcoming semester. This is because the computers database at the education authority considers her to be born in 1988 rather than 1888; hence when it calculates her age, she is 4.

Home computers, although they are subject to the millennium bug in the same way as office and mainframe systems are, the consequences of the millennium bug striking are potentially far less destructive and damaging. If your home PC is used largely for games, e-mail and the like then realistically all you need to check is that the system shows the correct date after the magic midnight. The dangers are if you use your PC for budgeting, financial planning, spreadsheets and the like. All these areas could potentially have a problem relating to the date. It is therefore prudent to back up all this data onto removable media of some description; in addition taking a hard copy is also a worthwhile exercise.

However, if you also use your PC for doing work and transfer data between the two locations, whether it is by floppy disk, e-mail, dial in account or whatever, if your PC is not Y2K compliant then you have the potential to annoy your boss intensely by screwing up the office system, enjoy! One very brief word on my pet hate, the Apple Mac. These are all Y2K compliant, the only caution here is that the software that is running them may not be compliant, in the same way as those PC’s operating on Mr Gates software. Check with the software manufactures, either on their website, or personally. For bespoke software, contact the vendors or programmers directly.

On a slightly humorous note, I have lost count of the number of times I have been told by Thais that the millennium bug will not affect them as Thailand is already in the year 2542 and only now is the rest of the world catching up with Thailand! And this from companies who are still using XT286’s in their operation!

Here in Thailand, the utility companies have all declared themselves to be Y2K compliant, as have the major banks, including their cash dispensers. As with any other holiday period, no doubt they will be devoid of cash well before the banks reopen. Am I cynical? You bet, having written a consultative paper for a bank over here some 5 years ago. It would be improper to name them but the response it got was, to say the very least, apathetic and is probably still gathering dust at the back of a drawer somewhere, that’s unless the maid has sold it as scrap paper.

Whilst I have no intention of stockpiling food, this particular industry is one of the most prepared. Just look at the sell by dates that you have, many will be well into the year 2000 and beyond, and that’s on goods you bought a long time ago. I will, however, be buying an extra case of beer so that I can really enjoy the ‘told you so’ party. Just sit back and relax, I will!

And finally, a very Happy and Prosperous New Year to all my readers, whom I thank for their support over the past year.

Send your questions or comments to the Pattaya Mail at 370/7-8 Pattaya Second Road, Pattaya City, 20260 or Fax to 038 427 596 or E-mail to [email protected].

Richard Bunch is Managing Director of Action Computer Technologies on South Pattaya Road (900 metres from Sukhumvit Road). Providing total computer, IT solutions, website and advanced graphics design to corporate clients and home users on the Eastern Seaboard. Please see our advertisement or call 038 374 147 or 411 063 www.act.co.th.

Successfully Yours: Peter Cummins

by Mirin MacCartthy

Peter Cummins, journalist and ‘yachtie’ extraordinaire is bright, great with the repartee, funny and ‘punny’ and one of Tasmania’s finest sons. Born in Hobart, in that cold island Down Under, some sixty odd years ago he got through life living off his wits. He disliked going to a strict Christian Brothers school and ran away at sixteen. “They were vicious, they beat education out of me, not into me. It took me many years to recover. We finished school knowing nothing of the world; we were taught French but not how to pronounce it.” Peter then worked in his father’s retail business for two years, followed by six months compulsory National Service in the Navy - of course! “I decided I wanted to see the world then. So I took off aged twenty and rode a ship through the Suez Canal. For the next five years I wandered through Western Europe and the Middle East with my tent and cooking pot on a Vespa. It did 104,000 km before Piaggio thought they had better give me a new engine.”

During his travels Peter spent six months at the Sorbonne in Paris relearning French and six months in Perugia, learning Italian. In another learning experience he spent one month in jail in Yugoslavia for sleeping out. “It was a communist country then and that was not allowed. They treated me kindly but they would not let me out.” Next, Peter arrived in London, had one look at Paddington station and took a ship to Canada. He worked in Montreal for a couple of years driving trucks and taxis, “Just menial jobs - the shortest job I had was 20 minutes driving a fork lift, when I skidded and rolled it over.” That skill came naturally! But he had a burning desire to go to the States, and was lucky enough to be offered a job in the United Nations in New York as messenger. “I was buying a few stamps in the UN post office. The chief of personnel happened to be watching me. He said, ‘You must be Australian, nobody else licks stamps like that,’ and he offered me a job. Where was it? Selling - not, licking, stamps in the public area.

Peter spent the next 10 years in New York, joining the vast, restless army of “course takers”, earning a BA in History and French and an MA in Information Science, in eight years of night-school. He later took a year’s leave in 1979, to study journalism in London, because, he felt that “journalism was just a natural follow-on from information science.”

For the next three years Peter worked in Lyons, France with the World Health Organization’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). “My total knowledge of medicine was taking aspirin for a hangover, but I loved the whole Lyons scene: the job, the culture, the history, the people, the food. Oh and the wine! Lyons is in the middle of the Beaujolais area.”

Peter transferred to Bangkok in 1973 for the UN, retiring in 1995. He loved his Bangkok posting from the moment he set foot in the country, particularly since it allowed him to follow his passion for sailing. “I started sailing in Tasmania as a kid. We were totally mad, we’d go out in any weather. Of course it was freezing cold so we tried to avoid a capsize - at all cost. I started sailing again almost as soon as I came here and joined the Royal Varuna Yacht club in ’73, was elected Commodore in 1979-1980 and an honorary life member in 1995.”

Peter was invited by Prince Bhisadej Rajani, the King’s life-long confidant, to go sailing with the King in 1985 and 1986 in a regatta at the Klai Kangwol Palace. Several months later, he was given permission to write the story, “Sailing with the King” which has been featured in many publications, including the book Peter has just written, entitled “His Majesty King Bhumibol the Great: Monarch for the Millennium, as a tribute to his Sixth Cycle. (This book, including Peter’s excellent photos and stories, is a marvellous millennium keepsake and is available on sale from the “Pattaya Mail”.)

Peter met Annie ten years ago in Bangkok. “I am very happy. She is the guiding light of my life.” Then in 1995, it was again “Anchors aweigh” and he retired after 32 years with the United nations and now spends much time in Pattaya writing for the “Pattaya Mail” and various international magazines and newspapers.

Is he ready to retire and tie up at the wharf? “No way,” he said, rather emphatically! “I am enjoying life to the limit.” The most important personal quality to Peter Cummins is tolerance, which comes as a surprise, because he is so naturally friendly you would not think he had to work at it. “Trying to be good natured and tolerant with good communicative skills is essential. Then I enjoy life and help others to enjoy it too.” Would he do it all again? “Yes but I’d change a few things. I’d do some things differently - especially jobs.” (On reflection, Peter’s early life does appear a little rudder-less!) He added, “Try to have as broad an approach to life as possible and whatever the situation: Be yourself, ‘You are what you are.’ You must be sensitive to other people. If you are a writer you should have a style, write as though you are talking to some-one.” With him in full sail by then, it was a shame to close the interview, but thank you, Peter, God bless you and all who sail with you.

Snap Shots: 100 Years of Photography

by Harry Flashman

Though photography has been around for 150 years, it has only been in the last century that it became readily available for the amateur photographers.

One reason for this was the birth of the Brownie box camera. This relatively large camera took about a dozen shots per roll. Processing took about a week or even longer, but it had now become possible for Dad to take photographs of Mum and the kids. Popular photography was born!

Box Brownie

Of course, these were Black and White pictures, and if you wanted colour, for special occasions, it was necessary to have them hand coloured. This led to a very specialised branch of photographic technicians and the skills of some of these people are still being looked at in family albums today.

But we do live in a colourful world and the next giant leap for photography was the advent of colour film. Not only colour - but colour available at a price that the world’s photographers could afford. Overnight, the “dip and dunk” B&W labs went out of business!

However, it still took a good week to get your prints back. We all went to the local chemist and waited with baited breath to see the results, but like most things in life, realisation was often not as good as expectation.

One reason for this was our equipment, and sometimes our misunderstanding of it. The best cameras were items like the Leica or Voigtlander. Great optics but hardly “user friendly” in todayspeak. Popular cameras of the day were little gems like the Minolta Hi-matic 7S. Remember them? Little light meter reading on the side of the viewfinder and we were getting closer to getting better exposures each time.

The next step in the 100 years of photography was two pronged. We improved cameras multpilefold, with the Japanese camera industry becoming dominant and secondly, we developed a quicker way of D&P (developing and processing). In one fell swoop we had affordable cameras and quicker returns, now down to two days, or in some centres a breathtaking 24 hours.

Names like Nikon, Canon, Minolta, Olympus and Pentax became well known. They brought in innovations like the Olympus Trip, a half frame camera that could give you 72 shots per roll. And all the time, the optics were getting better, rivalling the German produced cameras in every way. Leica people were buying cameras from Japan with a yellow strap and Nikon became a favourite, especially with photojournalists.

Then about twenty odd years ago there came the next revolution. Self contained, automated photo processing and printing. And it took less than one hour. Small shops began springing up everywhere advertising the 1-Hour service. It was more expensive than the trip to the chemist, but it was almost instant gratification. You could view your skills (or lack thereof) in 60 minutes. Almost overnight the chemist’s slice of D&P disappeared.

But all the time, the camera manufacturers were producing even better and “smarter” cameras. Electronics, micro-processors and silicon chips were stuffed into camera cases and it became even easier to get a good photograph. And cameras became cheaper again. Popular photography, with instant results, was almost within everyone’s reach.

The development did not stop there, however. The electronic marvels began to take over even more and the first “digital” imaging cameras were born. Suddenly film was no longer needed to get an image. All you needed was a computer!

As we approach Y2K, this digital photography becomes better and better. Now the pixilated image is rivalling the negative and print process. Is this the way of photography in the future? I do believe so. The Flashman household is watching the new developments and we too will be digital before the end of Y2K. Welcome to the new millennium!

Modern Medicine: One Hundred Years

by Dr Iain Corness

This week is a most suitable one to look back at the past century and what it has meant for the Art and Practice of Medicine. Please note that I use the word “art” intentionally. No matter how clever we get our computers to be, they will never replace the good physician who knows the correct questions to ask and who can “sense” where the problem lies. That is the “art”.

More has happened in Medicine in this last century than in all the centuries before put together. The advances have come one after another with increasing pace, so much so that even in the 33 years since my graduation, the face of medicine has totally changed, be that diagnostic tools, drug treatments, pharmacology, prosthetics or lasers.

Take, for example, Radiology. In the mid 60’s we had simple x-rays to hopefully show if a bone was broken. By the mid 90’s we had at our disposal some of the most sophisticated Radiological diagnostic procedures that were unthinkable at the time of my graduation. Spiral CT scans, Thallium scans, Echo Cardiograms, Ultrasound and Magnetic Resonance imagine have become common place. Provisional diagnoses can now become definitive with the new technology.

Pharmacology and drug treatments have also rocketed into the new millennium. From Penicillin and Sulpha of 50 years ago we now have a huge number of antibiotics to choose from to cover almost every illness. No sooner does one new one come out than we seem to have developed the Mk II form, which evolves into another, newer and more efficient drug. Remember Ampicillin (“Amoxil”) when it first came out? This was going to be the antibiotic that would cure the world. It didn’t. We then added Clavulanic acid to the Ampicillin and called it “Augmentin”. I remember at the time thinking they should have called it “Supermox” as it was supposed to be so powerful. Now there are antibiotics like Ciprofloxacin - very powerful, but also unfortunately, very expensive!

Even the time honoured art of Surgery has changed. Instead of almost cutting you in half to extract an errant gall bladder, it is now done through an operating “telescope” (which we call an Endoscope) and a 2 cm incision. Recovery time for the patient is down from 10 days to 2. That really is progress. Those clever surgeons can wiggle those endoscopes into all sorts of regions - into your nasal sinuses or inside the knee joint.

In the last 20 years they have devised ways to replace your blocked coronary arteries. Heart attack victims who would have died are saved and continue on for another 20 years as well. The future is here. Now!

In this century, with the application of Immunisation, we have managed to eradicate smallpox from the world. Life threatening childhood diseases have been totally modified, at the point of the immunisation needle, to make them minor inconveniences only. This century has been spectacular for Medicine.

So what will the next century bring? A vaccine against AIDS is almost certainly on the horizon. Genetic engineering will be used to remove the asthma gene, the arthritis gene and the diabetes gene. Many diseases will become historical entries only. Drugs will become more “target” specific, with the result being fewer side effects. The immune system will be fully understood and Multiple Sclerosis will also disappear.

It will be an even more exciting 100 years than the last one. I hope my “about to be” doctor son will look back on his father’s brand of medicine and not laugh too much!

Dear Hillary,

I am an Aussie policeman from Sydney who likes to come to Pattaya as often as possible on holidays. I talk about it so much, that even a few of my friends at work get a kick out of reading the Pattaya Mail on the net. My mate Mick and I are planning another trip to Pattaya on or about the 16 June 2000, if we can get away. Two of the young ladies we work with (yes, police women) want to come with us, well on the flight anyway. They then wish to go trekking up north, round Chiang Mai, for three to five days, both walking and elephant riding. They are both a bit nervous though, and having just read about another young Australian girl found murdered they are having second thoughts.

Is it really becoming that dangerous? Can two 22 year old young women do a trek like that in safety? If not how should it be done?

Do you know any reputable people who do the treks and if so can they be contacted on-line. Danger is everywhere, but I have never felt any threat (except from the Katoeys) but then I don’t look at things through the eyes of a female.

Alan

Dear Alan,

Yes, Hillary just hates it when katoeys sit in her lap, it is too confusing! I can’t believe you are serious though, are there really Australian policewomen who are nervous? I always imagined policewomen (as well as policemen anywhere) knew how to take care of themselves! It’s always been Hillary’s fantasy to be a tough police lady! What are you teaching the girls Down Under these days? They know how to shoot don’t they, they have been taught crowd control, defensive driving and riot survival skills? What more do you need in Thailand, except not to accept sweets or gifts from strangers and a snake bite kit? And as far as tourists getting murdered, what about the serial killer in the forest outside Sydney who did in a few travelling backpackers not so long ago? They’re (sorry, you’re) still digging up bodies. As you say - danger is everywhere, even in your back yard. (Have your colleagues considered most treks can be done in safety and a great deal more comfort by virtual reality on the net?) There are reliable trekking places, though, contact DTC Travel in Bangkok. Telephone and fax, Manager Khun Sasha, 0011662-6634676, or Tel: (02) 2594535/6 Email Sasha <[email protected]> My girlfriend told me that they deal with a very reliable trekking company with the romantic name of “Track of the Tiger”, and this company owns Mekok River Lodge and Mekok River Village. Although a little more expensive than others they are good quality, and apparently have an excellent safety record, not having lost anyone in the jungle yet, to murder, bandits or snakebite. The word is to tell them ‘Pan from DTC Pattaya sent them,’ and they could just about get a discount. Khun Sasha recommends, ‘Four days as being Enough for trekking and elephant riding, most farangs developing ‘hard pad’ after that!’

Dear Hillary,

Are the beer bars really honest? Every night when I go to “Check bin” the total seems to be very much higher than I expect. How can I check that I am really getting billed for my drinks and not anyone else’s?

Jock

Dear Jock,

Stay sober enough to count! Like all things in life, anywhere, if you are too plastered to look after yourself and your wallet, expect to get ripped off. Mind you, from your name, you could be just a wee bit more canny with your bawbees, do ye ken!

Dear Hillary,

I know you have told someone else how to lose weight, but I can’t for the life of me find the issue. Could you please tell me how to do it? I am 50 years old and drink about two (large) bottles of beer a day (more at weekends) but I am reasonably active. I remember you told the other guy he could continue drinking, so I am very interested in the diet!

Jimbo

Darling Jimbo,

Or is that jumbo, you seem to be more interested in drinking beer than losing weight. If you are serious, just eat Thai food, stir-fries with oyster sauce are relatively non-fattening. Cut out fat and sugar and junk food. Low fat, meat, fish and vegetables, preferably steamed, grilled or stir fried in a minimum of vegetable oil, is the way to go. The bad news is you have to watch what you drink as well. Drinks put calories in your system and beer and soft drinks are killers. Sure drink alcohol but change what you drink to wine and soda, vodka and tonic, scotch and soda, etc., that way you won’t be pouring so much sugar down your throat and stand a chance of winning the battle of the bulge. Have you ever wondered why men develop beer bellies? This is because they drink more beer! Good luck.

GRAPEVINE

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