BANGKOK, Thailand – Gold investors are watching US inflation figures this week for clues on whether prices are ready to recover after a sharp correction or face another decline under pressure from rising US Treasury yields. According to Thailand’s Gold Traders Association, domestic gold prices fell by 250 baht on October 1, with gold bars selling for 66,300 baht per baht-weight. Prices then fluctuated with international spot gold movements and exchange-rate changes, reaching 66,550 baht for selling and 66,350 baht for buying on October 10. Gold ornaments were selling at 67,350 baht.
The selling price of gold bars rose by around 250 baht over the first 10 days of October, leaving prices close to their level at the end of September. The market has yet to recover from September’s sharp swings. Domestic gold prices climbed to around 69,900 baht before heavy selling dragged them down by more than 3,300 baht to a low of approximately 65,800 baht. Prices subsequently recovered to close September at 66,550 baht. The current trading range suggests the market is attempting to establish a new price base after the steep decline. Investors are now looking for fresh economic signals that could determine the next major move.
US inflation and bond yields in focus
Two key US economic indicators — the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) — are expected to influence gold market sentiment. The figures could provide clues about the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decisions.
Higher interest rates and rising bond yields generally weigh on gold because the precious metal pays no interest, making it less attractive relative to interest-bearing assets. Conversely, signs of easing inflation and a more accommodative Fed could support prices.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and movements in global oil prices are also important variables. Any escalation could prompt investors to seek safe-haven assets, including gold.
From a technical perspective, analysts see gold attempting to build a base while testing important resistance levels. A sustained move above key resistance could encourage renewed speculative buying, while failure to break through could leave prices trading sideways.
Global banks assess the outlook
Major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and UBS, have been assessing gold’s prospects following its correction from record levels. The analysis provided in the market outlook places international gold prices in a range of around US$4,100–US$4,300 per ounce, following a reported peak of approximately US$5,589 earlier in 2026. Forecasts for the end of the year are cited in a broad range of US$4,450–US$5,100 per ounce, reflecting expectations that the market may need time to consolidate.
Despite short-term pressure from US monetary policy and bond yields, continued gold purchases by central banks and efforts by some countries to reduce reliance on the US dollar remain potential sources of longer-term support. The US$4,000–US$4,150 range is identified in the analysis as an important support zone. A recovery above US$4,200 could signal improved short-term momentum, although the market must still overcome resistance before a stronger rebound can be confirmed.
Thai analysts see a possible end to the correction
Domestic gold traders and analysts are also assessing whether the market is nearing the end of its major correction and entering a consolidation phase. The outlook identifies US$4,000–US$4,100 per ounce as an important international support range, equivalent to domestic gold-bar prices of approximately 65,000–65,800 baht per baht-weight.
The suggested strategy is to accumulate gold gradually when prices weaken rather than chase rallies. For the domestic market, the analysis places support at 65,500–65,800 baht and short-term resistance at 66,500–66,800 baht. Longer-term demand from central banks and gold’s role as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty continue to underpin the outlook. However, investors face the risk of further volatility as inflation data and interest-rate expectations reshape market sentiment.
The price levels and forecasts cited above reflect the supplied market analysis and are not guarantees of future performance. Investors should verify current prices and forecasts before making trading decisions.
