BANGKOK, Thailand – Artificial intelligence investment is helping keep global economic growth at 3% in 2026, but the technology could affect around 40% of jobs worldwide, with young people and new graduates facing particular risks, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned at the IMF–World Bank Group Annual Meetings in Bangkok.
The meetings, running until October 18, have brought global financial leaders to the Thai capital to assess an increasingly uncertain economic outlook, with conflict in the Middle East pushing up energy prices and weighing on growth.
Georgieva said massive investment in AI was helping offset some of the pressure on the world economy. The IMF projects global growth of 3% in 2026, down from 3.5% in 2025.
AI-related investment has reached a scale comparable to major infrastructure transformations of the past. Hardware associated with AI now accounts for more than one-tenth of global goods trade, while Asian economies producing AI-related hardware are among the main beneficiaries of the investment boom.
The IMF estimates that AI adoption could add around 0.5 to 1 percentage point to annual growth in advanced economies and 0.2 to 0.8 percentage points in emerging-market economies, although the benefits are unevenly distributed.
Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand and Malaysia, four leading net exporters of AI hardware, recorded stronger-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter, according to the IMF’s July update to its World Economic Outlook. Their annualised growth averaged 4.4%, while South Korea recorded 7.5%, well above the 1.8% forecast made in April.
However, Georgieva warned that many countries outside AI supply chains risk being left behind. The technology could affect approximately 40% of jobs worldwide, rising to around 60% in advanced economies, compared with about 23% in low-income countries, where adoption remains less widespread.
Young people and recent graduates face particular uncertainty because AI can perform routine tasks that have traditionally provided entry-level employment. Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam also highlighted declining demand for new graduates, warning that governments must act proactively to prevent the economic divide between wealthy and developing countries from widening further.
The impact could extend beyond employment to government finances. If AI shifts income away from workers towards capital owners, governments could face declining personal income-tax revenues, undermining an important source of public funding.
World Bank Group President Ajay Banga said the institution was supporting the development of smaller, more targeted AI tools that do not depend on large language models. These applications could help farmers, health clinics and classrooms in emerging markets gain access to the technology without requiring expensive, large-scale systems.
Georgieva also highlighted risks to global financial stability. Building AI infrastructure could add to inflationary pressures, while major technology companies borrowing heavily to finance investment could create wider financial risks if their earnings fall short of expectations.
The warnings in Bangkok underscored the growing tension at the heart of the AI boom: the technology is helping sustain economic growth, but without policies to spread its benefits, prepare workers and manage financial risks, the gains could come at a steep cost to younger generations and public finances.
