BANGKOK, Thailand – Kasikornbank (KBANK) expects the baht to trade between 33.30 and 33.80 to the US dollar from October 12–16, with markets watching developments in the Middle East, oil and gold prices, global bond yields and the International Monetary Fund’s latest global economic outlook. The bank’s research centre also highlighted key US economic releases due during the week, including consumer and producer price indices, retail sales, existing home sales, September industrial production, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, regional manufacturing surveys and weekly jobless claims.
Investors will also monitor September economic data from major economies, including China’s consumer and producer prices and international trade figures, Japan’s producer prices and eurozone consumer inflation. The baht recently weakened to 33.75 per dollar, its lowest level in more than two months and its weakest since July 27, despite rising global oil prices amid renewed Middle East tensions.
The US dollar gained support from rising Treasury yields, with 10-year and 30-year yields reaching their highest levels in more than 24 years. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting also reflected concerns about inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Fed could keep rates unchanged at its October meeting while potentially raising them again before year-end.
The dollar also benefited from weakness in the euro amid concerns over public finances in several European countries, particularly France. However, the baht recovered towards the end of the week as global oil prices and US Treasury yields retreated after concerns about the Middle East conflict eased somewhat.
On Friday, October 9, the baht closed at 33.52 per dollar, compared with 33.57 on October 2.
Foreign investors were net sellers of Thai equities worth 9.505 billion baht during October 5–9 but recorded net inflows of 5.122 billion baht into the Thai bond market. They bought 5.124 billion baht in bonds, offset by 2 million baht in maturing debt securities.
