BANGKOK, Thailand – The Thai baht is expected to trade between 33.20 and 33.90 baht per US dollar next week, according to Kasikornbank, with markets watching Thai inflation, Middle East developments and global bond yields, particularly in the United States.
Kasikorn Research Center said key US economic indicators to watch include the services PMI and ISM, September consumer inflation expectations, the preliminary October consumer confidence index, weekly jobless claims and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September 15–16 meeting.
Markets will also monitor September services PMI figures from China, Japan, the eurozone and the United Kingdom.
During September 28–October 1, the baht weakened to its lowest level in more than two months before recovering slightly towards the end of the week. The currency moved lower alongside most regional currencies amid higher global oil prices and uncertainty in the Middle East after US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal concerning the Strait of Hormuz.
The baht also faced pressure from a decline in global gold prices below US$4,200 per ounce, while the US dollar strengthened amid concerns over inflation expressed by Federal Reserve officials and higher US Treasury yields. Stronger-than-expected US economic data, including weekly jobless claims and September manufacturing PMI figures, also supported expectations that the Fed could maintain a tighter monetary policy stance.
The baht reached 33.71 baht per dollar, its weakest level since July 27, before recovering as global oil prices eased and support for the US dollar moderated ahead of the release of US non-farm payrolls and unemployment data. On Friday, October 2, the baht closed at 33.58 baht per dollar, compared with 33.36 baht a week earlier. Foreign investors sold a net 26.769 billion baht in Thai equities during September 28–October 2 and recorded net outflows of 9.853 billion baht from the Thai bond market. This included net bond sales of 9.848 billion baht and 5 million baht in matured debt instruments.
