Ever had a punt on golf? No, I’m not referring to the bet you may have with your playing mates. I am talking about betting with the bookies and backing who you think could win the tournament.
I used to regard golf betting as a mugs game as the odds given the top players were minuscule when compared to the frequency of their wins. I mean, unlike other sports such as tennis, the number of times a golfer actually wins is tiny. Top golfers such as Mickelson and Scott won how many in 2013 – two or three? Woods has had one of his best years in terms of wins and he managed five. Most of the top players struggle to win year on year, yet their odds remain unattractively low.
Beating the odds in golf – a tough call.
Look at the odds British bookies like William Hill or Ladbrokes allocate players such as Donald, Poulter or Westwood, and you will see they are artificially low. One reason is the influence of mainstream media who are not interested in odds or betting. Another is fan favouritism which sees the books heavily weighted with what the fan wants – heart over head. From a value-for-money perspective, these guys, the ones mentioned so far, don’t rate.
Does anyone?
Take the PGA Tour; each tournament sees all 146 golfers allocated odds to win. Woods is often quoted around 10/1 which means the punter stands to collect $10 for every $1 placed on him to win. Alternative betting is also available such as a top-five finish which many bookies offer at 25% of the player’s win odds. Thus Woods would be 2.5/1 for a top-five finish.
When Darren Clarke won the Open Championship in 2011 he was at odds of 200/1. Trevor Immelman won the Masters in 2008 at odds of 350/1. Yeah right, but who would’ve picked them?
Two Englishmen did, and that’s not all.
Dave Kelner and Mike Grenham work for the broadcast division at the UK’s biggest bookmaker, William Hill. When starting 20 years ago they were into horses. They still study form, but now it’s golfer’s form above any other.
Four hours preparation per tournament would be the norm, according to Kelner. “I’ll start by looking at the course, looking at players’ form, see who’s due a win, I’ll find statistics from similar players who have played there recently, I’ll find quotes from superintendents … all sorts of things.”
They are after enough information to assign odds to each player and compare those with odds given by the bookies. When they spy a big discrepancy they move. Their rewards come because they rarely pick favourites – “Who rarely win and when they do they pay peanuts” – they pick longshots who nobody else is looking at.
“Every good tipster knows that players like Westwood and Poulter are artificially short … they’re bad value most of the time,” Grenham said, something that Kelner agrees with.
“In the mainstream media, guys who aren’t interested in betting and don’t really look at the odds, they just pick Westwood and Donald,” he said. “It’s become a running joke between us, but we don’t really mind.”
Mike Grenham recalls the Open Championship of 2009 with some pleasure. That was the year 59yo Tom Watson lost in a play-off to Stewart Cink. “I may be the only person who liked that result,” he said, recalling Cink’s odds of 100/1. And this just a year after backing Trevor Immelman to win the Masters at 350/1.
So, it is possible to make money betting on golf; simply sign up for Dave Kelner’s and Mike Grenham’s column at William Hill and follow their advice. Be prepared to wait though.
Unusual Statistics: Following our recent series on golf stats, some readers referred me to a list of interesting and unusual stats relating to the 2013 PGA Tour season, courtesy of Golfdigest:
- No golfer in 2013 led the field in driving accuracy the week they won.
- Billy Horschel hit 20 consecutive greens in regulation at last year’s US Open, including all 18 on Saturday – thus becoming the first golfer to accomplish that feat in a US Open in 20 years.
- Only four players – Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods, Stephen Ames and Richard Lee – played the par-3s under par in 2013.
- Sergio Garcia gained more than half a stroke on the average PGA Tour field putting. That’s more than a full stroke better than his strokes gained putting average in the year he switched to the claw grip.
- Last year saw 11 five-putts on the PGA Tour, and 193 four-putts.
- Rising star, Jordan Spieth made US$3,879,820 in 2013. That’s more than Gary Player and Arnold Palmer made on the tour in their careers combined.
Happy golfing,
Golfnutter
