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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
Is the Baht too strong?
For the past year-and-a-half exporters, local business chiefs
and trade associations have complained about the increasingly strong Baht and
its negative impact on their orders, revenue and profit lines.
Expats remunerated in major foreign currencies and local
investors with overseas interests have been hit by a similar problem, with their
paycheques and savings losing value by the day.
Most grievances have been aimed at the central bank’s alleged
intervention in the money markets to shore up the Baht, leading to repeated
calls on the government to “do something” and twist the bank’s arm into
weakening the Baht, or at least letting its value settle naturally.
Both the Bank of Thailand and the Finance Ministry have
vehemently denied any intervention has taken place, saying the Baht is just
moving roughly in line with other regional currencies. But then, no-one believes
what central banks or governments say any more, do they?
However, the Baht has indeed underperformed other regional
currencies by about 10% over the year ending in January, with many analysts
blaming domestic politics for this weaker performance. Mark Mobius, the
legendary fund manager at Templeton Asset Management who manages about $34
billion in emerging market funds, says the local economy, equity markets and
currency have dragged since 2004 because of political risk.
Closer examination of the BoT’s foreign reserves data shows
that the central bank has, however, been intervening in the money markets of
late not to support but rather to weaken the Baht by purchasing US Dollars and
selling off the local currency.
But very recent data shows some interesting and new emerging
trends if you look at the region’s leading currencies and track their
performance against the US Dollar. Over the past two years the Malaysian Ringit
and Indonesian Rupiah have marginally outperformed the Baht, but the three have
maintained a pretty tight pack, with the Philippine Peso lagging.
Over the past year only the Ringit and Rupiah outperformed
the Baht, but only the Ringit did so for the first half of this year, although
the Rupiah, Ringit and Vietnam Dong all outperformed Baht during the second
quarter, even though the local currency has bounced a little since the end of
the latest wave of political unrest in May.
Compounded by fears over the country’s political stability
and the ability of local firms to fulfil orders, this strengthening Baht will
directly affect sectors such as tourism and increasingly damage Thailand’s
export competitiveness. Exports remain a key driver of the overall Thai economy
accounting for as much as 75% of gross domestic product.
The threat of a serious weakening of major currencies - which
some analysts see as inevitable with the greenback falling below THB25:USD1 - is
heightening these fears.
Mitigating the impact of these currency issues calls for some
intelligent action from the BoT. Opinions may be divided over what form that
action should take, such as pegging the Baht to its current Dollar value prior
to a collapse of the greenback, but the central bank has a long history of
coming up with innovative, leftfield solutions to its foreign exchange problems.
When the local economy became more connected to global trade
flows in the nineteenth century, Siam’s currency units, originally the Tical and
then the Baht, were both derived from simply weight measures of the amount of
silver they were composed of - a coin was literally worth its weight - a tical
was a measure of weight equivalent to around 15 and a quarter grams - in silver.
Foreign exchange rates were easily worked out as an approximation of the
relative weights of the respective currencies and indeed were fixed against
other silver-backed currencies. As a result when paper currency, backed by
silver reserves, was introduced. Baht banknotes also had their values in Straits
Dollars and Indian Rupees printed on them - 5 Baht being worth 7 Rupees or 3
Straits Dollars.
The decimalised Baht system was introduced in 1897, with one
Baht divided by 100 satang. Five years later, in 1902, the government started to
more actively manage and modernise the currency system in response to greater
fluctuations in the relative values of gold and silver. While Baht had been
fixed against silver-backed currencies, a fall in the price of silver relative
to gold had weakened silver standard currencies such as the Baht against gold
standard currencies such as Sterling. The Baht fell from eight to the Pound in
the 1880s to 10 in the 1890s, then plummeting to 21.75 by 1902.
At this point many currencies abandoned the plunging silver
standard but, prior to doing that, the Thai government initiated an ingenious
method for revaluing the currency. The Baht was allowed to rise when the value
of silver increased relative to that of gold, but any declines were simply
ignored. By 1908, this method caused the currency strengthen to 13 Baht to the
Pound, which allowed Siam to follow many other former silver standard countries
and peg its value to that of what was still the major regional and global
trading currency. The peg value was updated on a couple of occasions, to 12 Baht
in 1919 and 11 Baht in 1923. Following World War II and a brief period of
linkage to the Yen, the greenback replaced Sterling as the primary trade
currency and therefore the peg currency for the Baht.
Nonetheless for 95% of the last century, from 1902-1997, the
Baht was either a managed or pegged currency until the Asian financial crisis
erupted in Thailand in July 1997. Floating the currency, which saw the Baht’s
value roughly halve, hitting a low of 56 to the Dollar the following year, was a
boon for exports - rising from 13% of GDP in 1972 to about 50% in 1998 - which
declined in value but rose in volume, and tourism, which soared due to
Thailand’s exceptional value.
But now the tables have turned. Asia is leading the global
recovery and the region’s currencies are strengthening at a time when the West’s
lacklustre economic fundamentals are leading into a disinflationary period that
will be characterised by anaemic growth. Furthermore, Europe has been struck by
a sovereign debt storm that could dwarf the 2008 financial crisis.
A more pragmatic “Thai” solution may exist, one which could
help fend off the criticisms of protectionism that re-pegging the Baht will
certainly bring. I’m not sure what such a solution would look like, but I have
confidence that the economic wizards at the Bank of Thailand have more than a
few impressive currency tricks hidden up their sleeves.
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
“Timely” photography
 A
standard photograph is merely one moment in time, 1/60th
second frozen for eternity. The famous French photographer Lartigue
(1894 - 1986, was particularly good at this. So was Henri
Cartier-Bresson (1908 - 2004), who coined the phrase “the decisive
moment,” showing photography gives longevity perhaps?
However, in time lapse photography, you record a
series of these decisive moments, one after the other, all related to
each other. This kind of photography will show such things as the
development of a flower, or the butterfly emerging from the chrysalis.
You know the sort of thing - all very National Geographic or Disney
World. Any of you who have seen the film “A Zed and Two Noughts” will
also remember those scenes of bodies decomposing, all done by time lapse
photography. Time lapse should not be confused with time exposure
photography. Time lapse is multiple exposures, time exposure is one long
exposure.
Time lapse photography is probably the easiest, yet
most spectacular form of wall art that any photographer can produce. And
you do not need fancy equipment. In fact you and your point and shoot
auto-everything compact can do it.
Now while all this style of time lapse photography
sounds expensive and even time consuming, it does not need to be so. You
can produce your own time lapse shots with any old camera. It just needs
a little planning.
There is one photographer who on her birthday takes a
photo of herself in the nude. This she has done for the past 30
something years and has produced a time lapse record of human aging.
This series of shots has been studied by the medical profession, as it
is the only such record that has been undertaken in the world. So, if it
doesn’t depress you too much, there’s an idea for you!
No, for me, I want more instant gratification than
that. I believe you should pick on something that can allow you to
produce a finished product in the sort of time frame that you could sit
with comfortably (and not lose the photographs taken previously). So let
us look at some items that you could do easily, with just a point and
shooter.
Here is one suggestion - buy a rose (they sell them
in all bars every night) and place it in a vase by the window and shoot
it at lunchtime. Leave it exactly where it is, and take one lunchtime
shot every day for the next week. In that time, it will have spread its
petals, begin to die, the petals will shrink up, the stem will bend
over, the water will have gone cloudy and other attributes that will
only become obvious when you study the shots. However, to capitalize on
this you must mount the seven shots, side by side, in order from the
left. You have just produced a work of art in a week!
So you haven’t got the stamina for a week. What else
can you do? Well, there is always the record of one object in daylight.
Take six shots, one every two hours, of your house, for example,
starting at 6 a.m. You will see how the different time of day produces
different light, the sun’s movement produces different shadows and
again, by mounting them side by side, in order from the left, you will
have produced a work of art in one day!
So you don’t want to spend a day getting your
definitive time lapse shots, so look at taking one hour. In that time
you can document the progress of a snail along a wall, or serial shots
of people walking down the street, or the way your beer glass empties.
Just light it from behind with natural lighting to get the best effect.
Probably repeat this a few times over a Sunday, with the final shot
being a glass of water and two headache tablets.
The photo this week comes from Eadweard Muybridge and
was taken in 1878 to prove that horses at full gallop have all four
hooves in the air at one point.
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Blood Pressure. Is it dangerous?
I certainly do hope you have blood pressure (usually known as
BP), because if you don’t you are definitely dead! So, having no BP is
certainly dangerous. However, if your BP is too high, it can also mean you
could be claiming early on your life insurance policy - or your relatives
will, on your behalf.
High BP (hypertension) is known as the “silent killer” as
there are very few symptoms of an increase in blood pressure, until a vessel
bursts somewhere, generally catastrophically! The good thing is you are dead
within minutes, so you won’t linger.
Blood Pressure is needed to supply all the organs of the
body with oxygen which is in the blood. This is done by the red blood cells
which carry the oxygen, with the pump to drive the system being the heart.
The tubes from the heart are the arteries, and those returning the blood to
the heart are the veins.
This heart-arteries-veins-heart system is a “closed”
circuit. In other words, no leaks, otherwise you would be continually losing
the life-preserving blood, but to make it go around, there has to be a
pumping pressure (just like the oil pump in your car).
The heart squeezes the blood inside itself and pumps it
out into the arteries. This squeezing pressure is called the Systolic, and
is the upper number quoted when we measure your blood pressure.
After the squeeze, the heart relaxes to allow the blood
to fill the chamber, ready for the next squeeze. The pressure does not
return to zero, because there has to be some pressure to refill the chamber.
This resting or ambient pressure is the lower number quoted and is called
the Diastolic. BP is then typically quoted as 120/70, being 120 (systolic) /
70 (diastolic). The actual pressure number is measured in a millimeters of
mercury scale.
So what is your correct BP? Many years ago it was thought
that your systolic BP should be your own age plus 100, and the diastolic did
not matter that much. That was not correct! While many 60 year olds had a
systolic BP of 160, research showed that this was not a ‘healthy’ pressure.
To lower the risk, the BP had to be significantly lower.
The following table shows the categories of BP
measurements.
Optimal: less than 120/80
Normal: less than 130/80
High-normal: 130–139/85–89
High blood pressure (hypertension):
Stage 1: 140–159/90–99
Stage 2: 160–179/100–109
Stage 3: 180 or higher/110 or higher
The problem with running at high pressure is that the
heart is having to work harder, and therefore may be subject to heart
failure. The arteries are also subjected to higher pressures than they were
designed to cope with and can burst, making the risk of stroke so much
higher. Other organs don’t like working at the high pressures either, and
kidneys, in particular, can go into failure mode.
So how do you find out (before it is too late) if your BP
is too high? Quite simply by repeated measurements. Note I write “repeated”.
Just as one swallow doesn’t make a summer, one elevated reading does not
mean your BP is always high.
Blood Pressure is a dynamic situation. Lying down you can
have one BP. Get almost run over by a baht bus and you instantly have
another much higher BP. Blood pressure tends to be higher in the morning and
lower at night. Stress, smoking, eating, exercise, cold, pain, noise,
medications, and even talking can affect it. The single elevated reading
does not immediately mean you have high blood pressure. Conversely, a single
normal reading does not necessarily mean you do not have high blood
pressure. In fact, the average of several repeated measurements throughout
the day would be a more accurate picture of what is going on than a single
reading, but quite frankly, you do not have to go to that extreme.
As part of the routine in most good hospitals and clinics
is the measurement of your blood pressure. You should get this done at least
twice a year, in my opinion. Rising or elevated readings do mean you should
get medical advice. Have it checked today.
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
My GF won’t let me take photographs of her. She says she is
“mai suay” and puts her hand over the lens every time I try. Is this a cultural
thing or what? She lets me take as many shots as I want with all her clothes on,
so why not some good arty shots as well? Any pointers on what I should do?
Lennie the lensman
Dear Lennie the lensman,
It is quite obvious that your girlfriend is shy if nothing else, and you should
be aware of the fact that most Thai women are very modest, even in intimate
surroundings. When she says she is “mai suay” (not pretty), that is just an
excuse so that she does not have to explain to you that she would be embarrassed
by all this. You also do not say how long she has been your girlfriend. You have
to go slowly, Petal. If you have real feelings for this girl, buy her a new
outfit and photograph her in it in the park. Otherwise, put the camera away if
you want the relationship to continue.
Dear Hillary,
Are there any sorts of clubs or something where you can meet Thai women, the
better class ones if you know what I mean. I’ve only been here a few weeks, but
I intend to stay for a while. I’m 64, not married (divorced) and I’m not looking
for a bimbo. What’s the right direction?
George
Dear George,
An experienced gentleman like yourself should join the various chambers of
commerce and networking events promoted by groups like Networking One in Chiang
Mai. It is at these networking evenings that you meet women involved in business
(and not the naughty business), who are there to promote their businesses and
are not there for the express purpose of finding a farang wallet. Best of luck
in your searching. As I wrote to the chap called Lennie the lensman, you must go
slowly. OK?
Dear Hillary,
You are always crying out for champain (sic) and choclates (sic)
when youre (sic) giving advise. Don’t you know there (sic) bad for
you? Why do you do it?
Jason
Dear Jason,
You didn’t do well at school, did you Jason. Failed O Levels, especially (sorry
about using a big word, Petal) spelling. I can see I will have to go through
this slowly for you. Champagne and chocolates (note the correct spelling, that’s
a boy) are full of calories and because I am underweight, I need the calories to
put it back on. I am addicted you could say, and a daily bottle of bubbly would
overextend (oops, there I go again with long words, sorry) my budget, so that’s
why I look for generous correspondents (people who write in, Petal) in the
column. I’m sure you understand. Mark the bottle “For Hillary only” and leave it
at the office.
Dear Hillary,
I’ve been here for a while now, so I know a little bit about what happens. After
a few months and getting to know one of the bar girls quite well in my local
beer bar, she asked me for some money to send to her mother as her daughter was
sick and stays with her mother. It wasn’t much, only 5,000 baht and I really
didn’t care if she repaid me or not, so I gave her the money. The only problem
is now she’s come back to me a few more times since then and it’s starting to
add up. It’s now 25,000 baht and that’s getting up a bit, even if she doesn’t
charge me anything any more for short-times and stuff. How do I tactfully tell
her that there’s no more loans and I’d like her to start paying back the money I
gave her? And please no sermons, my buddies are good at doing that, but they’ve
got no answers for me.
Sunny
Dear Sunny (the sucker),
You say that because you’ve been here a little while now, you know what happens.
You might know what ‘happens’, but you certainly don’t know what it ‘means’. The
whole situation revolves around the phrase “the money I gave her”. She looks
upon it as a gift, which you did originally (“I really didn’t care if she repaid
me or not, so I gave her the money”) but now you want to change it into a
“loan”. It’s a little late for that, my Petal. No matter how many short-times,
as you quaintly put it, you are never going to see the 25,000 baht again,
without spending a small fortune on Vitamin V tablets which will increase your
costs again making the contra deal not worthwhile anyway (even if you have the
stamina). Now, how do you tell her tactfully that the well has run dry? Quite
easily, next time she asks, just say no. She won’t fall apart, she’ll just move
on to the next customer with a wallet in his trousers (as well as other bits).
That is the occupation that these girls have chosen. They live by their wits and
the guilty consciences of the suckers they fleece. Kiss it good bye, literally
and metaphorically.
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
NNow playing in Pattaya
Piranha 3-D: (Scheduled)
US, Action/ Horror/ Thriller – A new type of terror is about to be cut
loose in a beautiful lake. After a sudden underwater tremor sets free
scores of prehistoric man-eating fish, a group of strangers must band
together to stop themselves from becoming fish food for the area’s new
razor-toothed residents. With Richard Dreyfuss in the cast – you
remember him, the original battler of things in the water that bite.
Rated R in the US for sequences of strong bloody horror violence and
gore, graphic nudity, sexual content, language, and some drug use. In 3D
only at Pattaya Beach.
Splice: (Canada/ France/ US, Horror/ Sci-Fi/
Thriller – Two young, rebellious, and to me mostly repulsive scientists
defy legal and ethical boundaries to forge ahead with a dangerous
experiment: splicing together human and animal DNA to create a new
organism. The creature rapidly develops from a deformed female infant
into a beautiful but dangerous winged human-chimera, who forges a bond
with both of her creators - only to have that bond turn deadly. I found
the two leads disgusting human beings and their relationship with each
other a dismaying demonstration of the worst in human behavior. An
unpleasant movie. Rated R in the US for disturbing elements including
strong sexuality, nudity, sci-fi violence, and language. I’m in the
minority; it’s received generally favorable reviews. Not at Big C.
Toy Story 3: US, Animation/ Adventure/ Comedy/
Family/ Fantasy – Do see this! It’s truly entertainment! Even better in
3D. Andy, the boy who owns the toys, is now 17 and ready to head off to
college, leaving Woody, Buzz Lightyear, Jessie, and the rest of the
toy-box gang to ponder their uncertain futures. Starring the voices of
Tom Hanks and many other talented actors; there are 302 characters in
the film! Has the same Pixar genius as WALL•E, and the heart of
2009’s Up. If you enjoyed those, don’t miss this. It’s inspired,
and I loved every minute of it. In 3D (and it’s real 3D) at
Pattaya Beach, in 2D and Thai-dubbed elsewhere. Reviews: Universal
acclaim.
Inception: US/ UK, Drama/ Mystery/ Sci-Fi/
Thriller – A brilliant and extraordinarily challenging film that has
gotten ecstatic reviews from those attuned to director Christopher
Nolan’s brand of mind games. For them, a not-to-be-missed event. Highly
recommended. At Pattaya Beach only. Generally favorable reviews.
Salt: US, Action/ Thriller – Engrossing, quite
entertaining, and skillfully done. Just fun. And Angelina Jolie is
magnetic, a true wonder, a star in the real sense of the word. She plays
a CIA officer on the run, accused of being a spy, using all her skills
and years of experience as a covert operative to elude capture and prove
her innocence. A bombastic, complicated, old-school spy action-thriller.
Thai-dubbed at Big C. Generally favorable reviews.
Kuan Muen Ho / Guan Muen Ho / Hello Stranger:
Thai, Comedy/ Romance – Riding the local wave of fascination in all
things Korean (but especially the boy-band, pop-star craze), comes
another rom-com about Thais in that country of wonder that seems to
breed only cute muppets.
Luang Pee Teng III / The Holy Man III: Thai,
Comedy/ Drama – The continuing misadventures of a young, self-confident,
and stubborn monk who, in trying to escape from a world of confusion,
only finds more confusion.
Sing Lek Lek / Little Thing Called Love / First Love:
Thai, Comedy/ Romance – A young and ordinary high school girl has a big
crush on a heartthrob senior at school, played by for-real heartthrob
Mario Maurer. To make him see that she exists in his world, the girl
tries to improve her physical looks and tries to become a star at
school, without getting the results she wants.
Step Up 3D: US, Drama/ Music/ Romance –
Breakdancers! Third installment of the Step Up series, popular
with fans of dance films. Showing in 2D only at Pattaya Beach and Major.
Boonchu 10: Thai, Comedy/ Drama – Another in the
homespun teen comedy series of a country boy’s adventures in Bangkok. At
Big C only.
The Last Airbender: US, Action/ Adventure/ Family/
Fantasy – Despite the terrible reviews it has received, it seems to be
doing well enough. I’m disappointed with the film, but I love the source
material, the American animated television series on Nickelodeon, titled
Avatar: The Last Airbender. My recommendation still is to buy
this truly fine animated series, and skip the movie. In 2D only now at
Pattaya Beach only. Generally unfavorable reviews, one point away from
the category “Overwhelming dislike.”
The Sorcerer’s Apprentice: Completely disposable.
If you have nothing else to do and want to waste a couple of hours
without thinking too much, this is one way to do it. Especially if you
like the persona of Nicolas Cage. Apparently Cage wanted to make a
feature length movie based upon the Sorcerer’s Apprentice segment of
Walt Disney’s Fantasia. Cage plays the sorcerer and Jay Baruchel
plays an average college student who becomes the apprentice – the
character played by Mickey Mouse. I am way put off by the physical
mannerisms and irritating, whiney, unpleasant voice of Jay Baruchel. I
don’t know how he got to be such a star. At Pattaya Beach only. Mixed or
average reviews.
Staying happy in Paradise - the Counseling Cornerr
Thai - Western relationships
Richard L. Fellner
Relationships between Thais and Western partners: an
evergreen topic! In this Counseling Corner series, we look below the
surface to devote ourselves to the most important issues that can await
those who enter such relationships.
Part 2: Language
barriers
Why do Farang-Thai couples often sit in silence with
each other? Language barriers are a major problem in these
relationships, especially during the first two years. When the hormones
calm down a little and the daily routine of life kicks in, the ability
to communicate about feelings, goals, hopes and distress, becomes
particularly important. An order in a restaurant or the selection of a
movie is done in no time - but what to talk about after that? Especially
if the partner speaks English poorly, the available vocabulary is
rapidly exhausted. But even in couples in which both speak English
fairly well, it is never as easy as in one’s own language to describe
feelings intuitively and accurately! Complaints and conflicts may render
us ‘speechless’ - both partners are hurt and feel misunderstood. Regular
conflict escalation, however, is already a drastic alarm signal that
assistance is required if an end to the relationship should be avoided.
Allow your partner - ideally, from the beginning of
your relationship - to improve their foreign language skills. And
perhaps your own as well? In Thailand, that doesn’t cost much, but it
will bring both of you closer with each other and can be fun as well. In
case the conflicts are already taking the upper hand: seek advice from
someone outside. Whether you’re getting it together as a couple or
search for advice alone: almost always, it is possible to understand the
situation more clearly and to find new solutions.
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Live the happy life you planned!
Richard L. Fellner is head of the Counseling Center Pattaya
in Soi Kopai and offers consultations in English and German
languages after making an appointment at 0854 370 470. |
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