|
Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
Here we go again… Part 2
If the US recovery is strong, sustained and broad then
interest rates will likely rise in time to cap the risk from rising bubbles.
This, in turn, will leave us the substantially overpriced US market and more
moderate global equities and risk premiums to deal with. The market would likely
decline, but not disastrously so. Grantham then states, “If, however, the
economy only limps along, which seems more likely to me, then we run a very real
danger of a third dangerous bubble in stocks and in risk-taking in general.”
Despite the seemingly obvious financial disaster this would
create, Grantham remains convinced that the Fed chief would still refuse to
raise interest rates. “Bernanke will do nothing to let the air out gently. His
lack of anti-bubble action is pretty much guaranteed.”
While the end of such events is notoriously hard to predict,
generally speaking the larger the bubble the greater the shock to the economic
and financial system when it finally bursts. The key questions are, how can the
economy recover from a third seismic shock? And where would the resources to
revive the economy come from?
Improving unemployment just might provide a hook from which
to hang our hopes. That combined with something to dash the speculative spirit.
Otherwise history will likely repeat itself without the financial mentalists
having learned from their past mistakes.
Looking at the current economic fundamentals, Grantham
believes we are facing a clear range of possibilities and these correlate with
the “great divergence” referred to by S&P award-winning fund manager Scott
Campbell during his recent Bangkok visit - basically an environment where
anything that can happen probably will happen.
Those who believe that history repeats or has patterns that
emerge over time may be interested in the fact that many of the problems of the
“Tragic Year” started in Europe which is also at the heart of the heightened
risks and financial shockwaves right now. The difficulties that the global
economy faced in 2008 were comparable to the scale of those experienced in 1929.
And the equity markets’ initial reactions until the beginning of last year also
were very similar.
[FIGURE ONE]
[FIGURE ONE] The stimulus packages distorted the picture by
providing strong temporary support to equity markets. Observers such as Ron Paul
have said the GDP and market rebound is due entirely to stimulus measures which
have led to an artificially overvalued position today.
[FIGURE TWO]
[FIGURE TWO] A Dow below 6,000 today is what we might be
looking at without the short-term artificial boost from the rescue packages.
This coincides much more closely with Grantham’s views on the real value of the
Dow today.
The implication that we will see a 40% fall when the
stimulants wear off may be alarming, but just look at what could happen if we
then track the tragic year of 1932 and its consequences.
[FIGURE THREE]
[FIGURE THREE] It may be much too early to start thinking
that the worst is over and it might well be time to wake up to the fact that,
after the unprecedented stimulus which has helped paper over the cracks in the
market has finally worn off, a DJIA plummet to below 3,000 next year rising to
just more than 5,000 in three years time is a distinct possibility if history
repeats itself.
If so, it may be time to start feeding Bernanke’s overfed bull to the bears.
|
The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
|
Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Weddings and the three P’s
 Next
time you are asked to shoot a wedding, take my tip. Say No! As an
amateur, it is really too great a responsibility to take on. And it is a
very real responsibility. If something goes wrong, you can’t say, “Don’t
worry. We can take it all again next Saturday…”
One very experienced wedding photographer even went
so far as to call the craft, “Hours of controlled patience, punctuated
by moments of sheer terror and intense bursts of creativity.” However,
amateur or professional, you will get roped into photographing at least
one wedding in your lifetime. You have been warned.
However, to make it less of a terror, here are some
guides to photographing someone else’s ‘big day’. It is because it is
someone’s big day that it becomes so important to get it right.
Wedding photographers talk about the three P’s -
Preparation, Photography and Presentation. From the amateur
photographer’s point of view, the first two P’s are the most important,
although you should not forget the last one.
Preparation. This includes going to the church,
temple, registry office or whatever before the great day to see just
what you can use as backgrounds, and where you can position the happy
couple, and their parents, and their bridesmaids, and their friends, and
the neighborhood dogs and everything else that seems to be in wedding
photographs. Note where the sun is at the time for the wedding. Just by
doing this, you at least will know ‘where’ you can take some
photographs.
Preparation also covers talking to the couple and
finding out just what they expect to be taken. Preparation also covers
ensuring your cameras are functioning properly. Note too, that I said
‘cameras’ because there is nothing more soul destroying than having a
camera fail during an event such as this. Pack two memory cards as well.
Preferably, the second camera will be the same as the first, so that
your lenses will be interchangeable. Yes, lenses! You will need a wide
angle (say 28 mm), a standard 50 mm and a short telephoto (say 135 mm).
The wide angle is needed for the group shots and the standard for
couples and the tele for “head hunting”, looking for those great candid
shots.
Now comes the actual photography itself. You have
already written down all the shots that the couple want, so you can
cross them off your list as you go. One series of shots should be taken
at the bride’s residence, and this includes the bridesmaids. Many of
these will be indoor shots, so take your flash and bounce the light off
the ceiling to soften the effect of the flash burst.
Now you have to rush to the church or wherever the
actual ceremony will be, so you can get the bride outside, ready to walk
down the aisle with her father, or whomever is giving the bride away.
With those shots out of the way, now you can go and
get the ceremony and I do not recommend that you use the flash for these
photographs. For some religions, this is a solemn time and flash bursts
are very intrusive.
Cross off the rest of the shots as you cover them -
the signing of the register, emerging arm in arm, confetti or rice and
then the formal shots of the wedding groups.
After all this, everyone is dying for a beer and head
for the reception. However, you must wait a little while yet. There is
the ceremony of cutting the cake to be done, and photographs of the
guests enjoying themselves (other than you).
Having crossed every shot off the list, make for the
drinks department yourself. You’ve earned it. After all, you have
probably taken around 100 shots at least by now!
The final ‘P’ is presentation. Photograph albums are
inexpensive, so put the best shots from each series into a couple of
albums and present them to the couple as your gift. And as your final
job, make the mental resolve to never photograph another wedding as long
as you live!
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Diverticulitis
A couple of friends have been hospitalized recently with
acute abdominal pains. After examination, the diagnosis of ‘Acute
Diverticulitis’ was made, coming as a result of ‘Diverticular disease’.
The good book states that the term ‘Diverticular disease’
comes from the Latin word ‘diverticulum’ which means a “small diversion from
the normal path”. However, the late, my old Professor of Anatomy Max Hickey,
claimed it was Latin for a “wayside inn of ill repute”. His definition was
much more memorable.
However, a diverticulum as it refers to you and me, is a
small ‘balloon’ that pops through from the inside to the outside of the
colon, and usually seen in the descending colon which leads down to the
rectum and anus.
When you have a few of these diverticulae (plural of
diverticulum – Latin) we say you have the condition called ‘diverticulosis’.
This condition, on its own, does not produce any symptoms, so you do not
know if you have it.
When diverticulosis causes symptoms, it can do so in one
of two ways: first the balloons can rupture into the abdominal cavity,
causing localized irritation and inflammation or produce an abscess. This
inflamed diverticulosis is now called ‘acute ‘diverticulitis’. Patients who
have diverticulitis often will usually present with a sudden onset of pain
located in the lower left part of the abdomen over the sigmoid colon. It is
frequently exquisitely tender and is associated with fever and a high white
blood cell count.
Secondly, the diverticulae can begin to bleed to produce
significant amounts of rectal bleeding. This can also be painless, just to
confuse your gastroenterologist!
So who gets it? If you are Caucasian and you are over 65,
then you have a 50 percent chance of having it already. The reason given for
this is the lack of bulk present in the diet of industrialized countries
allowing muscle contractions to create localized areas of high pressure
allowing diverticulae to form. Some researchers say that the pressure
created by muscle contractions of the left side (sigmoid) of the colon are
considerably greater than those of the right side (ascending colon). This
could explain why diverticulae are more common on the left than right side
of the colon. However, this does not explain why Asians get diverticulae on
the right side. (Ah, the mysterious East! Or perhaps the theory is wrong!)
Acute diverticulitis is usually diagnosed by the typical
history and a physical examination demonstrating tenderness over the sigmoid
colon (left lower part of the Caucasian abdomen). Fever and a high white
blood cell count generally confirms the diagnosis. A CT scan or ultrasound
of the lower abdomen can be very helpful in showing an inflammatory mass
over the sigmoid colon.
If the presenting symptom is rectal bleeding, this can be
a bit more difficult to diagnose and is frequently a “diagnosis of
exclusion” by which we can find no other cause for the bleeding. Fortunately
this is not common, and less than five percent of people with diverticular
disease of the colon will bleed.
Acute diverticulitis is treated with antibiotics for 7-10
days. These antibiotics frequently have to be given intravenously. Diet is
often severely limited during the first few days of treatment. Most patients
will recover completely, but occasionally surgery is necessary in order to
drain all the infected material and completely empty an abscess cavity.
So can you do something to stop your diverticulosis
becoming diverticulitis? It hinges on eating more fiber. High-fiber foods,
such as fresh fruits and vegetables and whole grains, soften waste and help
it pass more quickly through your colon. This reduces pressure inside your
digestive tract. Aim for 25 to 30 gm of fiber each day. Fiber works by
absorbing water and increasing the soft, bulky waste in your colon, but if
you do not drink enough liquid to replace what is absorbed, fiber can be
constipating.
Respond to bowel urges. Do not delay. Delaying bowel
movements leads to harder stools that require more force to pass and
increased pressure within your colon.
Finally, exercise regularly. Exercise promotes normal
bowel function and reduces pressure inside your colon. Try to exercise at
least 30 minutes on most days. At least try!
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
I am getting very close to marrying my Thai GF as I would
like to make sure she gets anything that she’s entitled to as a married woman.
This woman is not a newbie, but we have been together for over a year and that’s
long enough to get to know somebody. We have spoken about getting married and
she said she wants to and this should be done in her village, but she has told
me that it will be expected that I pay for everything, the party and the monks
and all and this will be around 200,000 baht. Is this the dowry, or does that
come on top as well? It is really getting all too expensive for me as I am on a
pension and with the currency exchanges I am getting less and less every month.
What’s the score, Hillary?
George
Dear George,
You don’t say whether your Thai girlfriend is a young girl or an older woman and
whether or not she already has children, as these factors can influence the
‘bride price’ which is what is going on here. Quite honestly, it all seems a
little expensive, my Petal, especially as a village ceremony is not recognized
(even in Thai law) as a legitimate marriage as far as making sure the girl gets
all the entitlements. Only those marriages in the local amphur where you get a
wedding certificate at the end of it are ‘real’ weddings. I know you say that
you have been together for a year, but I wouldn’t say that is really long
enough, or you wouldn’t be writing to me. Tread carefully, George. Tread
carefully.
Dear Hillary,
The German chap in Rayong (two weeks ago) has to be careful not to bring in the
money in large lumps, or he will get the attention of the AMLO people who will
be alerted by his bank (that is the law) that money is being transferred from
overseas. Get advice from a reputable financial services company before going
much further. Thanks for the fun column, Hillary. I always enjoy it.
Jason
Dear Jason,
Thank you for the information, which I think could be quite important. You don’t
want to get on the wrong side of an organization like AMLO. Fortunately, I have
never had this problem, as the financial people are interested in amounts less
than 100 baht, my usual stipend. Sometimes it is good to be poor and I do envy
those people who can buy champagne and chocolates at will. Maybe in my next
life…?
Dear Hillary,
I have a fairly delicate problem but it is one that threatens to upset my entire
family. This is why I am writing to you. My older sister has told me she is
going to come over for a couple of weeks in December and I just know it will be
a disaster. First, every time she goes anywhere for “just a couple of weeks” she
is still there one month later. As she is the oldest in the family, she
criticizes everything I do and I also know she will bring men home, which is not
the right thing to do in front of my children. How can I persuade her not to
come?
Janine
Dear Janine,
There are a couple of ways around this problem, Petal. First off, you can
threaten to go away on holidays yourself. After all December is a good month to
visit the family yourself. You could always go and stay with her! Or you can ask
some other friends to come over so there is no room. You can decide to
redecorate and there will be no spare rooms without painters tarpaulins and
ladders. Or you could do what you should have done many years ago - just say,
No! You do say that you have children, so it’s not as if you are 12 years old.
She may be the oldest in the family, but it’s time you just stood your ground.
Do something positive. Time you took charge of your life.
Dear Hillary,
I had a small argument with a bar girl the other night - over money, what else?
It was mainly the old ‘time is money’ routine, where I felt I had paid enough
for a short time encounter, but she felt it warranted a long time fee. I refused
to pay, as any other man would do under these circumstances. She told me that
she is going to Japan because her boyfriend belongs to the Yakuza and she will
bring him back to “fix” me. After thinking about it, I wonder if I am in any
danger or not. What do you think, Hillary?
Should I Be Worried
Dear Should I be Worried,
Thai girls are no different from other girls when it comes to dreaming up a few
porky pies to bolster up their case. I doubt very much whether she has a
nine-fingered friend in Japan, and I am also sure that she will not be jetting
off to see him to extract retribution from an unpaid bar alliance. Think about
it and stop being a wimp. In the meantime learn to eat sushi.
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in Pattaya
Splice: (Canada/ France/ US,
Horror/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – Two young, rebellious, and to me mostly
repulsive scientists defy legal and ethical boundaries to forge ahead
with a dangerous experiment: splicing together human and animal DNA to
create a new organism. Named “Dren,” the creature rapidly develops from
a deformed female infant into a beautiful but dangerous winged
human-chimera, who forges a bond with both of her creators - only to
have that bond turn deadly. If you have sex with an underage creature
that’s only 50% human, does that count? And when your wife has sex with
a creature that’s 50% her daughter, is that incest or bestiality? These
are the ridiculous moral questions raised by this film. If these
questions keep you awake nights, this movie is for you. I found the two
leads disgusting human beings and their relationship with each other a
dismaying demonstration of the worst in human behavior. An unpleasant
movie. Rated R in the US for disturbing elements including strong
sexuality, nudity, sci-fi violence, and language. Generally favorable
reviews.
Toy Story 3: US, Animation/ Adventure/ Comedy/
Family/ Fantasy – I have seen this, and I think it is inspired. I loved
every minute of it. The set-up: Andy, the boy who owns the toys, is now
17 and ready to head off to college, leaving Woody, Buzz Lightyear,
Jessie, and the rest of the toy-box gang to ponder their uncertain
futures. When the toys are accidentally donated to the Sunnyside Daycare
center they’re initially overjoyed to once again be played with, but
their enthusiasm quickly gives way to horror as they discover the true
nature of the establishment under the rule of the deceptively welcoming
“Lotso” Bear. Starring the voices of Tom Hanks and many other talented
actors; there are 302 characters in the film, and they’re all gems! In
3D (and it’s real 3D) at Pattaya Beach, in 2D and Thai-dubbed
elsewhere. Reviews: Universal acclaim.
Huang Pee Teng / Luang Pee Teng III / The Holy Man III:
Thai, Comedy/ Drama – The continuing misadventures of a young,
self-confident, and stubborn monk who, in trying to escape from a world
of confusion, only finds more confusion.
Little Thing Called Love / First Love / Sing Lek Lek:
Thai, Comedy/ Romance – A young and ordinary high school girl has a big
crush on a heartthrob senior at school, played by for-real heartthrob
Mario Maurer. To make him see that she exists in his world, the girl
tries to improve her physical looks and tries to become a star at
school, without getting the results she wants.
Salt: US, Action/ Thriller – I found this
engrossing, quite entertaining, and skillfully done. Just fun. And
Angelina Jolie is magnetic, a true wonder, a star in the real sense of
the word. She plays a CIA officer on the run, accused of being a spy,
using all her skills and years of experience as a covert operative to
elude capture and prove her innocence. A bombastic, complicated,
old-school spy action-thriller. Thai-dubbed at Big C. Generally
favorable reviews.
Step Up 3D: US, Drama/ Music/ Romance –
Breakdancers! Third installment of the Step Up series, popular
with fans of dance films. Showing in 2D at Pattaya Beach except for one
very late showing each day in 3D; in 2D only at Major.
Boonchu 10: Thai, Comedy/ Drama – Another in the
homespun teen comedy series of a country boy’s adventures in Bangkok.
The Last Airbender: US, Action/ Adventure/ Family/
Fantasy – I‘ve now seen the 3D version, and yes it is darker than the 2D
version, not as crisp, the colors a bit muddy. So you’re better off
seeing the 2D version now playing. If, that is, you plan to see it at
all. And despite the terrible reviews it has received, it seems to be
doing well enough. In 2D only now at Pattaya Beach, and at Big C it’s 2D
and Thai-dubbed. Generally unfavorable reviews, one point away from the
category “Overwhelming dislike.”
I’m disappointed with the film, but I love the source
material, the 61-episode American animated television series on
Nickelodeon, titled Avatar: The Last Airbender. My recommendation
still is to buy this truly fine animated series, and skip the movie.
Inception: US/ UK, Drama/ Mystery/ Sci-Fi/
Thriller – A brilliant and extraordinarily challenging film that has
gotten ecstatic reviews from those attuned to director Christopher
Nolan’s brand of mind games. For them, a not-to-be-missed event. Highly
recommended. At Pattaya Beach only. Generally favorable reviews.
The Sorcerer’s Apprentice: Completely disposable.
If you have nothing else to do and want to waste a couple of hours
without thinking too much, this is one way to do it. Especially if you
like the persona of Nicolas Cage. Apparently Cage wanted to make a
feature length movie based upon the Sorcerer’s Apprentice segment of
Walt Disney’s Fantasia. Cage plays the sorcerer and Jay Baruchel
plays an average college student who becomes the apprentice – the
character played by Mickey Mouse. I am way put off by the physical
mannerisms and irritating, whiney, unpleasant voice of Jay Baruchel. I
don’t know how he got to be such a star. At Pattaya Beach only. Mixed or
average reviews.
Tukky: Thai, Comedy/ Romance – Thai fantasy tale
of an ugly princess in a magical land. Not at Major Cineplex.
Staying happy in Paradise - the Counseling Cornerr
What is a psychosis?
Richard L. Fellner
‘You’re psychotic!’ That’s supposed to be the
‘polite’ form of the phrase ‘You’re insane!’, used by some when they
can’t explain the actions of a person.
In deeply nature-bound cultures, people whose
behavior strongly deviated from what was perceived as ‘normal’, were
treated by magicians and shamans. In the West, however, they were locked
up in so-called ‘insane asylums’ where they often received cruel
treatment. Only in the 1930s, psychiatrist Karl Birnbaum introduced a
first definition of the medical term ‘psychosis’: according to his
theory, biological roots defined the form of the disease, while its
severity, beginning and course would be strongly influenced by
psychological factors, so new ways of treatment were experimented with.
The importance of the factors involved in psychiatric
diseases was subjected to historical changes: while the ‘mentally ill’
were considered as uncurable before psychiatry became a medical science,
after Birnbaum and Freud, psychotherapy had its heyday. Currently, we
are again in a phase with an emphasis on physical (neurological)
theories and treatments. Sometimes, treatment is so focused on
pharmacological prescriptions that even patients feel that ‘something is
missing’. The most successfull concepts in modern therapy therefore
involve a multi-strategic approach of pharmacological, psychotherapeutic
and social therapeutic aid.
People experiencing psychosis or psychotic episodes
may report hallucinations or delusional beliefs, and exhibit personality
changes and confusion. Depending on its severity, this may be
accompanied by unusual or bizarre behavior, as well as difficulty with
social interaction and impairment in carrying out every day activities
due to feelings of anxiety, irritation, moodiness, and passive or
indifferent behavior.
As patients are often intimidated about having to
fight mental problems or might perceive their own situation in a
distorted way, it is essential that friends or relatives do their best
to help them get a proper diagnosis and therapy. If treatment starts
early, the chances of stabilization and returning to a balanced and
stable life increase significantly.
|
Live the happy life you planned!
Richard L. Fellner is head of the Counseling Center Pattaya
in Soi Kopai and offers consultations in English and German
languages after making an appointment at 0854 370 470. |
|
