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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
Politics and economics - not a good mix
I never talk about politics because I try to limit myself to
rational topics of which I have some understanding. In the past I have only ever
commented on politics or politicians when they have impinged on my chosen field
of economics. Sadly, this seems to happen more and more frequently. I prefer the
old-fashioned idea that economics was something which existed very much outside
the political realm. The spectre of politicians getting involved in fiscal and
monetary policy is a bizarre nightmare that haunted much of the 20th century but
happily independent central banks have, in many cases, now once again attained
some levels of independent power and responsibility.
In particular, I never comment on Thai politics because I
really do not feel qualified to add anything to the debate, having only lived
here for 16 years (even in another 50 years I doubt if I would have any real
understanding), but I do recognize that Thailand might fail to capitalize on the
opportunities presenting themselves to Asian investment markets if political
risk continues to affect the country’s economy.
Last month, Scott Campbell, CEO MitonOptimal Guernsey, MBMG
Group’s S&P award-winning affiliated portfolio manager, spoke to investors here
in Bangkok about the great divergence between Western markets, which in many
cases are still significantly below the levels of ten years ago, and regional
stocks which have increased three-to-fourfold since the Asian crisis. Local
valuations remain reasonable and a number of structural factors such as the
growth in domestic consumption and markets, the rapid expansion of
intra-regional trade and favourable demographics will continue to offer an
advantage to the East over the West and to other developing markets rather than
developed markets for perhaps the next 30 to 40 years. Asian population
distribution looks similar to that of the United States in the Baby Boom era.
Scott Campbell stated, ‘’The region is exporting within
itself. This has shown that Asia is much less dependent on the West which is
very positive... An economy that has a higher proportion of population in
younger age groups is in much better shape than economies that have an aging
population. India, for example, will progress through the baby boom stage and
isn’t projected to reach the top heavy state that is now starting to impact on
the growth of the US today until 2050. In long term trends this theme is very
supportive of emerging markets growth for another 40 years or so.’’
Scott also noted that other shifts have occurred from West to
East - “In the past, a high-risk portfolio was emerging market bonds, Japanese
equities and developing market property. At the same time a low-risk one
contained US government bonds, German blue-chip companies and UK property. Now,
the situation is completely reversed.’’
Asian commercial property is particularly attractive with low
gearing ratios and, in many cases, good yield carry - unlike western commercial
property markets where higher leverage and low or negative real yields make
asset prices extremely vulnerable.
While Thailand’s economic fundamentals are attractive,
political risk is currently a major obstacle. Scott highlighted the relative
underperformance of the baht during a period which has seen a significant
rebound in ASEAN currencies (other than the Vietnamese Dong!).
‘’Currency is a barometer of political risk and the Thai baht
has been pretty much flat since last year [on a trade-weighted basis]… If the
political risk gets sorted out, then you may see the Thai baht appreciate just
to catch up with the other regional currencies which it has lagged during this
time.’’
Currency change relative to US$
Long term observers such as Dr. Mark Mobius have noted that
Thailand started to underperform in 2004, when political tensions first began to
affect the economy. If so, it may well account for much of the underperformance
identified in research by John Sheehan of Global Market Asia which shows that
Thailand’s economy has significantly lagged over the last few years in terms of
economic growth rates, FX rates and stock market valuations relative to those
ASEAN neighbours which have not only caught up with but have overtaken Thailand.
If you take the superior GDP growth rate of the Philippines
and apply this higher rate to Thailand’s growth from 2005, it can be seen that
by the end of 2008 Thailand’s GDP would have been somewhere between US$30
billion and $40 billion higher than it actually was. Hopefully, the political
stalemate in Thailand is now much closer to a resolution and any undervaluation
that this has caused in local assets and/or the currency now represents a buying
opportunity.
The following chart highlights the dangers of dogmatic
political extremism to an economy. It does not really make any significant
difference who is in charge as long as extreme influences do not dominate the
political agenda (see Graph 2).
GRAPH 2
With all three candidates in last week’s UK election fighting
hard over the middle ground, that should be comforting news. However, the actual
paucity of choices makes us glad we do not follow politics. Alexis De
Tocqueville said that in a democracy we get the government we deserve. You might
feel that this is a harsh way to look at the choices facing voters in Thailand
and the UK where politics seem to have descended into Hobson’s choice! In both
cases, the incumbent prime ministers may have a lot going against them but one
widespread view is that maybe they have limitations as politicians just because
they are decent, honest and sincere people. Maybe the depressing, universal
truth is simply that good people make bad politicians and vice versa.
Having lived in Thailand for sixteen years not only means
that I have not been here long enough to qualify to comment on Thai politics but
also that, on the other hand, I have been away from the UK so long I am afraid I
cannot tell one party from the other. Let’s just hope that not only is De
Tocqueville right but also that our Karma yields good political results and I
can just go back to fretting about what I do know something about - the
relatively less tangled web of the investment world ... did anyone see the
Goldman hearings last week?
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
The ‘decisive moment’
 Henri
Cartier-Bresson, the originator of the phrase in photography, “The
Decisive Moment”, died in 2004, aged 95. However, he will be remembered
for his contributions to photography forever. However, despite his fame
and notoriety, he was never one to look for personal publicity, and in
fact hid from it.
He was born in France in 1908 and initially studied
painting, following much of the Surrealist school of thought of the
time. However, by the time he was 22 years old he had dropped art for
photography, but began to apply the art concepts he had been exposed to
towards photography.
One of the factors that allowed Cartier-Bresson to do
this was the advent of the small portable cameras, such as the Leica
fitted with a 50 mm lens, which was to become Cartier-Bresson’s favorite
instrument. He believed that the photographer had to become part of what
was going on, and after becoming ‘in tune’ with the subject, it was then
possible to capture the essential moment, the very essence of the event.
This was explained by Cartier-Bresson in the foreword to his book,
published in 1952, Images a la Sauvette (The Decisive Moment). He
called it “The simultaneous recognition, in a fraction of a second, of
the significance of an event as well as the precise organization of
forms which give that event its proper expression.”
With this concept and the portable lightweight
camera, Cartier-Bresson became one of the principal ‘street’
photographers. A true journalist with a camera - a photo-journalist. He
would record not just a parade, but also the people watching the event,
and their reactions to the event.
Take a look at the classic photo to illustrate the
decisive moment. The shot was taken in 1932 at the Place de l’Europe,
where the marooned man has finally realized that there is no way out,
and having made the decision, launches himself off the ladder. That
split second, that decisive moment caught by Cartier-Bresson in such a
way the viewer can feel the moment still today, 72 years later. In his
words, “There was a plank fence around some repairs behind the Gare
Saint-Lazare train station. I happened to be peeking through a gap in
the fence with my camera at the moment the man jumped.”
He recorded the Spanish Civil War in the 1930’s and
then WW II, but was finally captured and he became a POW. He escaped
three years later, and was there to record the liberation of Paris from
the Germans.
Of course, he was by that stage becoming an icon, and
in 1947 joined forces with two other ground-breaking photojournalists,
Robert Capa and David Seymour to form the Magnum agency. However, for
Cartier-Bresson, news was much more than the photo-journalists were
showing. It was necessary to get behind the scenes.
Cartier-Bresson and his confreres forged a name for
hard hitting news photography. Cartier-Bresson spent almost 20 years
there, covering Mao Zedong’s victory in China and the death in India of
nationalist movement leader Mahatma Gandhi.
Regarded as one of the pioneers of photojournalism,
his pictures now hang in art galleries around the world, with a
retrospective in Europe to be extended to allow more visitors the chance
to view his work.
Friend and fellow photographer Lord Snowdon paid
tribute to him saying, “He was brilliant. I will miss him very much. I
don’t think he’d like his work to be called art, he would like to be
remembered as an anonymous figure. His books record moments that can’t
be captured again.” Again that concept of the ‘decisive moment’.
But by 1975 he gave up photography. “All I care about
these days is painting - photography has never been more than a way into
painting, a sort of instant drawing.”
Ex-French President Jacques Chirac said
Cartier-Bresson’s death was a major loss to his country. “France loses a
genius photographer, a true master, and one of the most gifted artists
of his generation and most respected in the world.”
In 2004, the world lost a photographer who had vision
and the ability to record his vision in a way the world could
understand. The decisive moment will always belong to Henri
Cartier-Bresson.
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
ED is more than a talking horse
It seems that a large percentage of expat males in this
country live in fear of ED. Not Ed the talking horse of the 60’s black and
white TV, but Erectile Dysfunction! It is seems this affliction is life
threatening.
Judging by the number of signs outside small medical
clinics, Erectile Dysfunction, or ED, must be very prevalent in Thailand.
The sign usually indicates the treatment as well, where take your choice
from Viagra, Cialis or Levitra. It’s all there on the sign. Salvation is
here. Hallelujah, ED has been conquered, just like we did with smallpox all
those years ago.
I used to have a very old cat. Didn’t do much, just slept
under the back stairs most of the day. Got up a couple of times for a pee
and something to eat and then went back to sleep again. But that cat was a
hell-raiser in his heyday. No female tabby cat was safe with him around.
What has that to do with ED, I hear you ask? I would
suggest - everything! You see, I believe that lots of males out there get
this ED label hung around their necks, until they begin to believe it.
Somehow, this fit young virile 50 year old suddenly gets this disease called
ED when in his 60’s. Where did this disease come from? How did he get it?
How do you get rid of it, and how do the rest of you make sure you don’t get
it either?
Before we get too much further into this, I want you to
think back to when you were in your late teens, early twenties. You could
run 100 meters in well under 13 seconds. Now you probably can’t run that
distance at all. Is this a new disease? Should we call it “Leg Dysfunction”,
or LD for short?
When you were in your twenties, you had no problems
reading the newspaper, but by the time you were 40, it was becoming a bit of
a problem. By the time you were 60, you really had problems with distance
vision as well as reading. We should probably call this “Visual
Dysfunction”, but the initials VD have already been taken, so let’s call it
“Seeing Dysfunction”, or SD for short.
In your twenties you probably didn’t have any problems
with the erectile thingy either. You know, the dangly bits. In fact, it was
probably overactive. But as you got older, the frequency and intensity began
to slow up somewhat. By the time you were 60 you were told you had this
terrible disease - ED. But what’s the difference between LD, SD and ED?
I would suggest to you, that there is no difference. I
made up LD and SD, because neither is a true “dysfunction”, but just the
natural aging that occurs. Likewise, I would suggest that ED is not a true
“dysfunction” when it occurs later in life. It is just part of the natural
aging process too. You haven’t got a disease. You’re just growing older,
like my cat.
Now there are a few differences from Mr. Tom Cat and Mr.
Tom Expat. Sex is not just procreational, it is recreational, and is
something about which we have built up great mystique. We judge ourselves on
our horizontal abilities, rather than our intellectual achievements. Those
with younger wives feel that they are letting the side down (or something
else) if they cannot rise to the occasion (sorry about that) every night, or
every second night, or every “whenever” that you have decided “homework”
should be done.
So what should be done about it? Well, first off, the
Viagra, Cialis, etc., do work, but they open up much more than just the door
to the bedroom, they open you up to physical exercise (I was going to say
“viagorous” exercise, but Ms. Hillary stole that line) for which your body
might not be fit enough. This is why these medications should only be taken
after examination by a doctor, to ensure your general level of fitness is
good enough. Homework shouldn’t become undertaker’s work!
Talk to your doctor and get a good check-up first!
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
What with clothes being so cheap in Thailand we have friends
who keep telling me they are bringing an empty suitcase so that they take all
their new clothes back with them. The problem is that both of them are around a
size 18, or just about twice the size of the local women. They are really going
to stand out here. I have been looking around the fashion shops before they
come, but the clothes establishments (even the designer shops) just don’t stock
size 18, and “one size fit all” just doesn’t work in this case. Do you know of
any places that sell larger sizes? If you don’t, how do I tactfully break the
news to them?
Karl Lagerfeld
Dear KL,
I am honored! A famous designer writing to Hillary. And
wanting my advice on fitting dresses to models. It’s just a pity the models in
question are so large. The best places for bargains in clothes are still
Pratunam in Bangkok, but that’s a bit too close to all the ruckus we’ve had this
month. If they are coming in three months, then they can spend some time looking
- but size 18 is just a little bit optimistic. However, all is not lost.
Tailoring for women as well as men is very inexpensive in Thailand. They will
make anything to measure in 48 hours (they’ll tell you 24, but it usually takes
a couple of fittings). Tell your friends to bring over any favorite outfits and
they can also copy these right down to the last stitch, and at a price very much
less than the cost of the original items in their home country.
Dear Hillary,
I am a frequent visitor to Thailand and Pattaya I have read
the books written about bar girls also read with interest your column whilst in
Pattaya and at home on the net, it is a great source of quality information and
amusement, so I should have been prepared.
I am divorced and two years ago I met a young lady in one of
the sea front bars and the usual holiday romance ensued, liking this girl too
much I arranged for her to return to her family home in Chiang Mai while I
returned to Liverpool and began sending her money on a monthly basis. I can see
a number of you shaking your heads already.
After lots of contact via email telephone and a few further
trips back to Thailand and our feelings being even stronger, we applied for a
six month visa to the UK and I brought my young lady home. We returned to
Thailand in the November last year and were married; now we reside in the UK but
hope to live in Thailand by this time next year.
All my family and friends adore Lek and she brings to me fits
of laughter on a daily basis, this Thai lady is a joy to be with full of genuine
love affection and compassion.
Lek works extremely hard in and around the house and garden
and always has a smile to give to everyone, the elderly people next door think
she is a true treasure and are extremely fond of her, so am I one of the lucky
ones or are the Thai girls too much maligned by a few bad apples amongst them?
Happy Harold
Dear HH,
Are you a lucky one? I think the old hands would say you
definitely are the lucky one, Petal. However, just as there are “few bad apples”
as you say, there are also a few good apples, and it would seem you have found
one. But I hasten to caution that your romance is still only two years old, with
much of that time being spent apart from each other. The ‘honeymoon’ period is
still on. For your sake (and hers) I do hope you will be just as happy in
another two years. Let me know.
Dear Hillary,
I still wonder if the letters you get are real. Surely people
aren’t as stupid as they make themselves out to be? It seems as though these old
people are on a course of self destruction, because they all fall for the same
old traps and tricks. Are there that many lonely people out there? Are they so
lonely they will take companionship from anyone, no matter how much it costs?
Lyall
Dear Lyall,
“Are there that many lonely people out there?” Yes, Petal,
there are. Older men do get lonely and it is very difficult for them to find
intimate satisfaction in the western countries, being thought of as some sort of
pervert for even thinking about female company. So you can see it is easy to
understand why they come to Thailand and get caught up in the bar scene. The
problems occur when they become so involved with one of the bar ladies that they
confuse the fact that they are buying rent-a-friends, not a lifetime lover. Are
the letters real? Are the situations real? Just re-read Harold’s letter (above
yours) and you can see the genuine needs of a divorced man, which were filled by
a young lady from a bar. Perhaps not the best situation, but one that is working
for him.
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
If you want to see some fictional violence for a change,
you have some dandy choices this week. The most extreme, should you care
to try it, is “Ong-Bak 3”. But “The Losers” is right up there. Or
there’s “R Hood”, “Iron Man”, “Ip Man”, and “Nightmare”.
Now playing
in Pattaya
Robin Hood: US, Action/
Drama – Robin Hood as gladiator, brought to life by Russell Crowe, all
grunting and scowling. This re-visit to Sherwood’s most famous forest is
brought to you by Ridley Scott, responsible for “Alien” and “Gladiator”.
It’s something of an origin story, finding historical context by
telling of Hood’s early days as an archer in the service of the
lion-hearted King Richard. Mixed or average reviews. Thai-dubbed at Big
C.
It does have impressive visuals and some great sweeping
battle scenes, and strong performances by Russell Crowe, Cate Blanchett,
William Hurt, Max van Sydow, and Mark Strong among others. But it took
me a long while to get interested in the main characters during the
back-story, and the 1199 AD events of King Richard on his last crusade.
Much seemed to be happening in darkness in the middle of the night
(okay, a little day-for-night is all right, but this went on and on
until everything seemed one shade of murk!). I defy anyone to figure out
what was going on during the early part of the film, or more
pertinently, why it should matter.
But after the story got going, it was okay. It is loud,
noisy, and confusing in the modern way of showing battles, where clarity
is sacrificed for jittery, jumpy editing, and you are left with visual
impressions, not information, and get visual rhythms rather than
storytelling. If you like this sort of thing, well, you will like this,
because it’s that sort of thing.
I’m struck again by what huge endeavors movies like this
truly are. So many – probably thousands – of people were given
employment, and that’s obviously a good thing. Not only actors, but
costumers, armorers, set builders – actually in this case town and
fortress builders. Many artisans of all kinds. It’s a huge enterprise,
and much of the craft involved is truly impressive: the details of the
time and place. If I think it’s all ruined by the editing that’s so in
fashion, well maybe it’s just because I’m from another era and somehow
don’t like or even want to like the present day rapid-fire, video-game
influence in movies. Call me old fashioned, not with it.
I appreciated much of the craft, but I didn’t have much
fun.
Ong-Bak 3: Thai, Action – Tony Jaa in the
historical martial-arts conclusion of the two-part prequel to the
“Ong-Bak” movie that made him a star in 2003. Rated 18+ in Thailand.
It’s sickeningly violent.
I really object to the level of violence that Tony Jaa so
relishes in his latest film. It really is too much. For a good half hour
at the beginning he is tortured over and over until he’s lifeless, then
revived and tortured some more, until his body is a broken, bleeding
near-corpse. This is truly alien to me, and I object to what he expects
me as an audience member to put up with. We’re not all as sadistic as
Jaa is masochistic.
Aside from the torture and some Buddhist nonsense, the
picture is fascinating. Jaa is a true artist, and has expanded the form
of the martial arts film in unforeseen ways, incorporating not only many
strands of martial arts disciplines, but also many strands of Thai
culture, and its dances and rituals and meditational poses. He again
incorporates traditional palace dance forms into this film, probably to
the dismay of action junkies. I think his films, which always have
surreal qualities, are exceptional works of art.
Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (scheduled):
US, Action/ Adventure/ Fantasy/ Romance – Based on the video game, which
I’ve played, as a matter of fact. The film is set in medieval Persia
when a nefarious nobleman covets the Sands of Time, a legendary gift
from the gods that allows its possessor to turn back time. Starring Jake
Gyllenhaal, Gemma Arterton, Ben Kingsley.
Shrek Forever After - 3D: US, Animation/
Adventure/ Comedy/ Family/ Fantasy – The further adventures of the giant
green ogre, Shrek. Now domesticated and bored, Shrek makes a pact with
deal-maker Rumpelstiltskin to get the real ogre feeling once again, but
is duped and sent to a twisted version of Far, Far Away. With the voices
of Mike Myers, Cameron Diaz, Antonio Banderas, Julie Andrews, and Eddie
Murphy. In 3D at Pattaya Beach, Thai-dubbed 2D elsewhere. Mixed or
average reviews.
The Losers: US, Action/ Crime/ Mystery/ Thriller –
After being betrayed and left for dead, members of an elite Special
Forces black ops team root out those who targeted them for
assassination. Loud, fast, and unrelentingly violent – but it’s also
funny and well-acted, which will make all the difference for some action
fans. Mixed or average reviews.
A Nightmare on Elm Street: US, Fantasy/ Horror/
Thriller – A group of suburban teenagers share one common bond: they are
all being stalked by Freddy Krueger, a horribly disfigured killer who
hunts them in their dreams. As long as they stay awake, they’re okay.
Critics have not been kind to this remake, saying that it lives up
to its title in the worst possible way. Rated R in the US for strong
bloody horror violence, disturbing images, terror, and language. 18+ in
Thailand. Generally unfavorable reviews. Thai-dubbed at Big C.
Iron Man 2: US, Action/ Adventure/ Sci-Fi/
Thriller – Directed by Jon Favreau, starring Robert Downey Jr. It isn’t
quite the breath of fresh air that “Iron Man” was, but this sequel comes
close, with solid performances and an action-packed plot. I was
particularly impressed with the work of Mickey Rourke. If you enjoy
action movies, you should like this one; it has the requisite sound,
fury, and flash. Mixed or average reviews. Thai-dubbed at Big C.
Ip Man 2: Hong Kong, Action/ Biography/ History –
The second in a trilogy of semi-biographical martial arts films based on
the life of Ip Man, a grandmaster of the martial art Wing Chun and the
first person to teach Wing Chun openly. One of his students was Bruce
Lee. Thai-dubbed only, not at Major.
Furry Vengeance: US, Comedy/ Family – A real
estate developer faces a unique group of protesters: local woodland
creatures who don’t want their homes disturbed. Live-action animals with
animated mouths. 92 minutes of abuse. Generally unfavorable reviews.
Sam Yan: Thai, Comedy – Usual regurgitation of
Thai slapstick comedy. A dead passenger on a bus returns to haunt the
driver, etc. Rated 18+ in Thailand. In Thai only.
Staying happy in Paradise - the Counseling Corner:
Agitated
Richard L. Fellner
Armed conflicts are hard to process. Subconsciously
they remind us of our own mortality and trigger a strong impulse to
sympathize with either the aggressor’s or the victim’s side. After that,
the position taken will rarely be corrected. A headwind will often
amplify this, sometimes by suppressing or distorting new perceptions and
information.
This momentum explains why so many individuals as
well as international media and organizations had such obvious
difficulties to name the violent aspects of the political protests that
took place. An openly signaled sympathy for the proponents of democratic
values by individual reporters would be justifiable - but having to read
and hear terms like ‘defense’ or ‘justifiable anger’ even after arson
and attacks against civilians took place, many of us were stunned by the
noticeable partisanship and rationalization of the damage caused.
A dynamic we saw in the camp of UDD was just as
disturbing. Many people inside the camp as well as many supporters
outside were so emotionalized by the passionate speeches (which
constantly alleged the government of having an intent to kill them),
that when their leaders finally called to immediately stop the
radicalization at the time of their arrest, it did not help anymore
because the train was already at full speed. Not least because
revolutionary movements often attract elements who join them not from
political belief but rather for the pleasure of destruction and violence
- a drive just waiting for the appropriate opportunity to unleash.
Live the happy life you planned! Richard L. Fellner
is heading Counseling Center Pattaya in Soi Kopai and offers
consultations in English and German languages (after making appointments
at 0854 370 470).
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