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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
We are in a Depression… part 2
The interests of China and America are growing further apart.
For example, China needs more commodities whereas the US does not. One thing is
for sure, China is growing and America is in decline as it certainly does not
produce enough compared to the whole economy. Also, net savings in the US are
low. It is like comparing two companies, one spends everything it earns, pays
out dividends and borrows money to buy cars and other non-essentials for its
owners. The other saves money to invest in the future for education, research
and development, new plant and machinery. The latter will always do better in
the long run. It is not difficult to guess which company is America and which
one is China.
Consuming means consumption. Save money for emergencies and
get through them as, if there is nothing in the bank, you will not survive.
America is not the place it used to be at the end of the eighties. There are
more car sales in China than the US. In fact there are more in the emerging
market nations than in the G16 countries and they use more oil as well.
The US has abused its ability to borrow money and has not
saved anything at all over the last few years, and this is one of the main
reasons for the drop in the standard of living. Compare this to China and India
who have saved and now have growing economies. In 1950, the US was streets ahead
of the emerging markets but now the gap has closed, especially with regards to
education. In some American states, twenty percent of the population cannot even
read English.
As mentioned above, Europe is not immune to the problems
either. Spending there is also on the retreat. This is why people are now saying
it is a depression and not just a massive surge in consumer debt that is causing
the problems.
France’s public debt has risen to over 75% of output in Q3.
This follows only a few days after the Fitch ratings agency gave the country a
warning on its sovereign credit standing. The UK has receiving the same credit
warning and, as we know, Greece, Ireland and Spain have all been downgraded in
2009.
Fitch released a statement in December which said, “UK, Spain
and France in particular must articulate more credible fiscal consolidation
programmes over the coming year given the pace of fiscal deterioration and the
budgetary challenges they face. Failure to do so will greatly intensify pressure
on their sovereign ratings.”
It is not just the ratings agencies which are giving out
warnings. The EU commission has instructed France to get its act together which,
after some initial bleating, it has agreed to do.
The EU has another problem apart from incurred debt and this
is the euro. In the past, when the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) had
problems they just devalued their own respective currencies. They cannot do this
now. According to S&P, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain have all seen a big drop
in exchange rates over the last few years. This is only going to get worse if
rate increases are started by the European Central Bank (ECB). There could well
be a split between the northern euro countries and the southern ones. The ECB is
also hampered by the fact that most of the European banks have yet to reveal
exactly what their losses are. At least the US and UK are passed most of this.
Germany has ridden the woes of the last couple years quite
well. Unemployment is on the way down to around 7.5% whereas Spain and Greece
are nearly at twenty percent. No-one really noticed this to start with as the
credit boom hid everything. Now, those aforementioned countries are up that well
known creek without a paddle. This is not just because of the Germans but also
because many of the world’s major currencies have got weaker. The UK pound,
Russian ruble and Swedish krona have all dived as has the Turkish lira and many
Eastern European currencies. The Chinese have maintained an unofficial peg to
the US dollar.
The UK has benefitted from not being part of the euro and the
weak pound has given UK companies a big advantage over its European rivals and
its output, although far from impressive is a lot better than its counterparts
across the Channel.
Things are not all rosy in London though. There has to be an
election by May this year at the latest and so the bankers will have to be
careful. Does the Bank of England carry on with QE in the hope of bailing Gordon
Brown out along with his never ending spend, spend, spend programme and thus
risk mass inflation or does it turn off the taps and risk us sliding down the
ladder from whence we came?
Faber believes that the demand for oil in Asia will double
over the next two decades. At the moment, Asia uses 22 million barrels a day.
This will increase to over 40 million per day. The present day oil production is
85 million barrels. Every year we find more oil but we also use more than we
actually find so reserve levels will go down which, in turn, means oil prices
will rise.
Gold has strengthened due to a weak US dollar and other
western currencies. The European Central Bank is a money printer and this is
another reason for gold getting more expensive. In 1996, foreign exchange
reserves were USD1 trillion. At the moment they are USD7 trillion. Gold has not
gone up seven times in this period. In Asia, if you include Japan, central banks
hold 70% of the seven trillion US dollars but hold less than 2% in gold.
However, this will slowly change and they will follow the Reserve Bank of India,
which has done an excellent job recently, and buy more.
Depressed yet? You should be but do not give up all hope.
Despite all of the above whereby we are spending more than we can afford and
where the repayment schedules are going to be horrendous, the good doctor
believes there is still money to be made, especially in the following sectors:
Indian financials, Asian real estate even though some of it is over-leveraged at
the moment, sugar which is at a 200 year low, agricultural commodities, natural
gas, Japan as a contrarian bet and, above all, avoid US government bonds.
Basically, go for the multi-asset class approach.
As a brief aside, Bill Bonner of Agora has announced a new
annual award to the person who has done the dumbest thing in the financial world
during the preceding 12 months. They have named it the “Christopher Columbus
Prize,” after the famous sea captain who “didn’t know where he was going, didn’t
know where he was when he got there, and as Churchill pointed out, did it all at
government expense.” Their choice for the first recipient of this award was Ben
Bernancke. Mine is Gordon Brown.
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
A different viewpoint
 By
cultivating the artistic eye you can produce some outstanding wall art,
and this week I want to help you find your artistic eye. As the title of
this week’s article states, you have to find the different viewpoint.
To make the photograph really interesting, you will
end up recording something which was always there, but until you have
captured that image, nobody realized it was there.
Unfortunately there is a great tendency for us all to
take very ‘standard’ shots. By ‘standard’, I mean from a very standard
viewpoint, so we end up with standard pictures. For example, when was
the last time you took a photo that was not taken while you were
standing and looking through the viewfinder? A long time, I am sure.
However, when you take a photo from the standard
position, you do get something that is instantly recognizable, because
the subject of the photo is presented as we normally see that subject.
We look up to see street lights, we look down to see children. All
sounds boringly obvious. But it is that ‘normal’ viewpoint that can also
make your photographs boring.
I have mentioned before that when taking photographs
of children, you should get down to be at the same level as they are.
This way you will get a much more pleasing photograph of your little
bundles of joy. However, when you are down on your knees you have also
produced the situation whereby you can get some other different shots.
These are a baby’s eye viewpoint of the world, looking up at everyone
and everything. It is well worth trying to take some shots of adults, or
even the environment of the house. You will be amazed at just what your
infants see! You may also be horrified when you see the dust under the
computer table!
While still in the ‘looking up’ mode, when you look
higher than the ground floor shops, you may find there are some sights
well worth recording. Even just washing hanging out can be quite
noteworthy. Just try it. Remember too, that you get a distorted shot
when you tilt the camera towards the sky. Buildings appear to lean over
backwards, the trunks of trees look much more substantial than they
really are. It is a kind of exaggerated perspective effect.
It was only by looking up that I got the shot printed
with this week’s article. It is actually a shower head in a semi-outdoor
shower, with the sunlight causing the interesting effect with the
shadows of the wood beams bent across the wall.
The other viewpoint should also be explored, and that
is looking down. Since helicopters are expensive to hire, you will find
there are many other ways for photographers who are training themselves
to look at life differently. There are over-bridges, there are
observation platforms, there are even hotels and condominiums with
ledges and parapets. They are all there for you to use, after you have
looked up to find them.
What lens should you take? This is one of the rare
times when I recommend a zoom lens. From the lofty viewpoint, it is
difficult to predict what focal length you will need, and rather than
taking several lenses up to the platform with you, the zoom can do it
all.
There is also the fact that if you go very high up
(or even out of the helicopter), a Skylite 1A filter does help get rid
of any altitude ‘haze’, but I would expect that most photographers
already have the 1A permanently screwed on the front of the lens, just
as scratch insurance.
It is important, that as you develop your artistic
eye, you experiment with different viewpoints. Not all of them will be
successful, but some will be, and the new viewpoint can be the catalyst
for some unique art. And surely that is what many of us are trying to
achieve.
A trip around the local Wat, looking up and looking
down, would be an interesting project for all photographers, from school
age to old age. Try it this weekend (just don’t fall)!
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Slipped a disc recently?
Would it surprise you if I said that ‘vanity’ was one of the
prime reasons we get back pain? The real reason you get a bad back is
because our forefathers decided we looked better walking on our hind legs,
instead of all four. Just like a horse, the bones of our spines lock
together nicely when we are on all fours, and weight can be carried easily
on our backs. However, when we stand up and try and lift, it all goes
pear-shaped from there. The spine was not designed to carry loads, or pick
up loads, in the vertical position.
But unfortunately, lift and carry is a prime example of
what we call on people to do, from mothers lifting babies to laborers
lifting bags of rice. The presenting situation is one we meet only too
often. The patient is doing something and suddenly everything locks up and
they are immobilized, frozen to the spot. I was once called out to a factory
toilet where the chap was bent over the urinal, and too afraid to move, the
pain was so acute.
Back pain is one of the commonest orthopedic problems,
and the often used terms such as lumbago, sciatica and slipped discs are
spoken about frequently.
Let’s look at the “slipped disc” problem. First thing -
discs do not “slip”. They do not shoot out of the spaces between the
vertebrae (the tower of cotton reels that makes up your spine) and produce
pain that way. The disc actually stays exactly where it is, but the center
of the disc (called the nucleus) pops out through the edge of the disc and
hits the nerve root. When this happens you have a very painful condition, as
anyone who has had a disc prolapse (our fancy name for the “popping out”
bit) will tell you. Think of the pain when the dentist starts drilling close
to the tiny nerve in your tooth. Well, this is a large nerve! When the
nucleus of the disc hits the sciatic nerve, this produces the condition
known as Sciatica - an acute searing pain which can run from the buttocks,
down the legs, even all the way through to the toes.
Unfortunately, just to make diagnosis a little difficult
you can get sciatica from other reasons as well as prolapsing discs. It may
just be soft tissue swelling from strain of the ligaments between the discs,
or it could even be a form of arthritis. Another complicating fact is that a
strain may only produce enough tissue swelling in around 12 hours after the
heavy lifting, so you go to bed OK and wake the next morning incapacitated.
And then you have to convince the employer that you did it on his time.
To accurately work out just what is happening requires
bringing in those specialist doctors who can carry out extremely intricate
forms of Medical Imaging called CT Scans, Spiral CT’s or MRI that will sort
out whether it is a disc prolapse, arthritis or another soft tissue problem.
The equipment to do these procedures costs millions of baht, and the
expertise to use them takes years of practice and experience. This is one
reason why some of these investigations can be expensive.
After the definitive diagnosis of your back condition has
been made, then appropriate treatment can be instituted. The forms of
treatment can be just simply rest and some analgesics (pain killers),
physiotherapy, operative intervention or anti-inflammatories and traction.
Now perhaps you can see why it is important to find the
real cause for your aching back. The treatment for some causes can be the
wrong form of therapy for some of the other causes. “Self diagnosis” is
dangerous!
So what do you do when you get a painful back? Rest and
paracetamol is a safe start. If it settles quickly, then just be a little
careful with lifting and twisting for a couple of weeks and get on with your
life as normal. If, however, you are still in trouble after a couple of days
rest, then it is time to see your doctor and get that definitive diagnosis.
It is the orthopedic chaps you need to see.
Heart to Heart with Hillary
My Dear champagne addicted petal;
You are evidently not in the ‘in crowd’ of beer drinkers.
Lotus, Big C, etc., charge more for cold beer and why spend perfectly good beer
money getting there? As far as my spelling goes, I didn’t use my spell checker
like you (you are not that intelligent dear) but was actually referring to my
loves (sic) TWO BUFFALOES but did not indicate that. Check your spell
checker and you will see that the plural for buffalo is not BUFFALOS; which
probably means something weird in Spanish. See you at the AA when WE get sober.
You first.
Singha Jerry
Dear Singha Jerry,
You take me to task for something you “did not indicate”.
So I am a mind reader now as well as being the ear for the lamented and
demented. Where did I mention two animals? I didn’t. Where did you mention two
animals? You didn’t. You wrote about a singular buffalo, which has no “e” on the
end. And if you wish to be totally correct, then it should be “my love’s” and
not “my loves”, my pedantic Petal (the apostrophe indicating possession). And
before you rush back into the 7-11 to grab another cheap tinny thinking you have
something to celebrate, the plural of buffalo is also “buffalo” (Concise
Oxford). And since you are obviously a Cheap Charlie, I won’t be getting drunk
on your champagne, will I Jerry?
Dear Hillary,
A friend who has been to Thailand who put me on to your
website. I have been reading your column on dating and have enjoyed it very
much. As I am going to be there in September for the first time I am writing. It
seems that everyone I ask (single men like myself) talk about being at the bars
as the way to meet the working women of Thailand. While I realize this is not
the only way I do have a question. If one is not a big drinker will I offend if
I do not drink a lot or wish to leave to go see music, movies or see the
country.
James
Dear James,
I can assure you that the ladies from the bars have not
the slightest interest in how much ‘you’ drink, only in how much ‘they’ drink,
while you are paying of course! This is because they receive a percentage of the
cost of the ‘lady drinks’, while they get nothing from the price of your drinks.
This is how they make money, as they are ‘working’ women, getting their monthly
salaries in many ways. It works like this, since you have not been here before,
Petal. They generally receive a small wage (or retainer), and then their lady
drinks percentage plus a percentage of the so-called ‘bar fine’ which is what
the punters (like you) pay for the honor and glory of taking one of the blushing
young ladies away from the bar to see music, movies or the country. Anything
else is a private arrangement between the lady and the customer, as you have to
realize that there is no prostitution in Thailand, because the government said
so. And the statute books have said so since about 1966. While you are paying
for things, you will not offend, James.
Dear Hillary,
I met a Thai girl last year, since then I have been coming to
Thailand every 3-4 months, to see her. We have exchanged the phone numbers and
the e-mails and we have been in contact with each other all the time. However, I
cannot seem to be able to explain to her the meaning of “about” or “around”. You
see, she is always eager to know when I will be arriving to Thailand next time
and when I reply to her “in about three months”, she takes it literally to be 90
days, because when I call her the next time - for instance in two weeks - she
starts asking for my arrival date and when I reply to her in about three months,
she gets upset as in her mind I have changed the date and should be arriving in
two and a half months and not three. Hillary, please help me in finding correct
words to convey her what I mean when I say “about”. I even tried “approximate”
but that confused her even more.
Ali
Dear Ali,
I take it from your letter that English isn’t your mother
tongue either, so you already know some of the problems your girlfriend is
having in trying to communicate in another language. You have also found the
answer yourself when you say in your letter that it could be 1-2 weeks postponed
- in other words, you are saying that it will be in “about” one to two weeks.
When you want to say you will be coming back in “about three months” then what
you have to say is “coming back in 3-4 months” and your Thai girlfriend will
know that this means “about”. Remember too, that one reason why she will want to
tie down the dates is that she has to organize and arrange her life too, please
don’t forget that.
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in Pattaya
Hurt Locker: US, Action/
Drama/ Thriller/ War – Simply one of the best motion pictures. Not to be
missed under any circumstances. Well deserving of its six Oscars. Almost
unbearably tense, and a shattering account of a US bomb disposal squad
in Iraq. My overwhelming cry at the end of the film: Americans, get out
of there! At Pattaya Beach only. If you only see one picture this year,
this should be it. Rated R in the US for war violence and language.
Reviews: Universal acclaim. At Pattaya Beach only.
Robin Hood: US, Action/ Drama – Robin Hood as
gladiator, brought to life by Russell Crowe, all grunting and scowling.
There are lots of swashes buckled and swords clanked. This re-visit to
Sherwood’s most famous forest is brought to you by Ridley Scott,
responsible for “Alien” and “Gladiator”. It’s something of an
origin story, finding historical context by telling of Hood’s early days
as an archer in the service of King Richard, before he became the man in
tights redistributing the crown’s wealth. Early reviews: Generally
favorable. Thai-dubbed at Big C.
Ong-Bak 3: Thai, Action – Tony Jaa in the
historical martial-arts conclusion of the two-part prequel to the
“Ong-Bak” movie that made him a star in 2003. Rated 18+ in Thailand.
It’s sickeningly violent.
I really object to the level of masochism displayed by
Tony Jaa in his latest film. It really is too much. For a good half hour
at the beginning he is tortured over and over until he’s lifeless, then
revived and tortured some more, until his body is a broken, bleeding
near-corpse. This is truly alien to me, and I object to what he expects
me as an audience member to put up with. We’re not all as sadistic as
Jaa is masochistic.
It seems personal. I’m sure his tortures reflect the way
he feels his critics have treated him, and the boss at the film studio
that withheld the money to finish “Ong-Bak 2”. I wouldn’t be at all
surprised if the chief torturer bears a remarkable physical resemblance
to the studio head.
When he finally recovers from the maulings and
mutilation, and gets revenge, I feel like he’s fantasizing getting back
at all his real-life perceived enemies.
Aside from some Buddhist nonsense and the torture, the
picture is fascinating. Jaa is a true artist, and has expanded the form
of the martial arts film in unforeseen ways, incorporating not only many
strands of martial arts disciplines, but also many strands of Thai
culture, and its dances and rituals and meditational poses. He again
incorporates traditional palace dance forms into this film, probably to
the dismay of action junkies. He is endlessly inventive, and brings
unsurpassed energy, athleticism, and zeal to his projects. And the
films, which always have surreal qualities, are exceptional works of
art.
He’s working out his own inner demons through his art,
especially his revenge fantasies for all his own real-life real or
imagined slights, but that’s what artists do.
Shutter Island: US, Drama/ Mystery/ Thriller – I’m
just very fond of this film, that’s all there is to it. I have to warn
you that a great number of people seem to dislike it immensely. If you
go hoping to see another great gritty Martin Scorsese film in the
tradition of The Departed, you will not like it at all. Here he’s
just having fun with an old film tradition – scary goings-on in a lonely
island hospital for the criminally insane, with crazy people all around
and frightening things happening in the middle of lightning storms.
Within this framework, Scorsese is taking great joy in playing with his
audience’s expectations, leading us all on a merry chase full of
deceptions. With Leonardo DiCaprio, Ben Kingsley, and Max von Sydow (how
can you go wrong with a cast like that!). Rated R in the US for
disturbing violent content, language, and some nudity; 18+ in Thailand.
Generally favorable reviews. At Pattaya Beach only.
Shrek Forever After - 3D: US, Animation/
Adventure/ Comedy/ Family/ Fantasy – The further adventures of the giant
green ogre, Shrek, living in the land of Far, Far Away, this time in 3D.
Now domesticated and bored, Shrek makes a pact with deal-maker
Rumpelstiltskin to get the real ogre feeling once again, but is duped
and sent to a twisted version of Far, Far Away. With Fiona, Donkey, and
Puss in Boots, and the voices of Mike Myers, Cameron Diaz, Antonio
Banderas, Julie Andrews, and Eddie Murphy. In 3D at Pattaya Beach.
I Love You Phillip Morris: (Scheduled) France/ US,
Comedy/ Drama – On his second go-round behind bars, a scam artist (Jim
Carrey) commits the ultimate con in order to break out and win back the
heart of Phillip Morris (Ewan McGregor), with whom he fell in love
during his first prison sentence. One of the best performances of Jim
Carrey’s career, so they say. Rated R in the US for sexual content
including strong dialogue, and language. Generally favorable reviews.
Major Cineplex.
A Nightmare on Elm Street: US, Fantasy/ Horror/
Thriller – Critics have not been kind to this remake, saying that it
lives up to its title in the worst possible way. They say it’s visually
faithful but lacking the depth and subversive twists that made the
original so memorable. Rated R in the US for strong bloody horror
violence, disturbing images, terror, and language. 18+ in Thailand.
Generally unfavorable reviews. Thai-dubbed at Big C.
Iron Man 2: US, Action/ Adventure/ Sci-Fi/
Thriller – Directed by Jon Favreau, starring Robert Downey Jr. It isn’t
quite the breath of fresh air that “Iron Man” was, but this sequel comes
close, with solid performances and an action-packed plot. Both theaters
also have a Thai-dubbed version. Mixed or average reviews. Mixed
or average reviews. Thai-dubbed at Big C.
Ip Man 2: Hong Kong, Action/ Biography/ History –
The second in a trilogy of semi-biographical martial arts films based on
the life of Ip Man (1893-1972), a grandmaster of the martial art Wing
Chun. One of his students was Bruce Lee. The film focuses on events in
Ip’s life that took place in the city of Foshan during the Second
Sino-Japanese War, as Ip Man grew up in a China torn by racial hatred,
nationalistic strife, and warfare. Thai-dubbed only.
Date Night: US, Action/ Comedy/ Romance – In New
York City, a case of mistaken identity turns a bored married couple’s
attempt at a glamorous and romantic evening into something more
thrilling and dangerous. Starring Steve Carell and Tina Fey. Mixed or
average reviews. Pattaya Beach only.
Furry Vengeance: US, Comedy/ Family – A real
estate developer moves his family to Oregon when his job calls for him
to oversee the building of a major housing development. But once there
he faces a unique group of protesters: local woodland creatures who
don’t want their homes disturbed. Look forward to 92 minutes of abuse
from a stupid and mean-spirited movie that’s one of the worst in recent
memory. Generally unfavorable reviews.
Staying happy in Paradise - the Counseling Corner:
Chok dee...?
Richard L. Fellner
“One for the road?” - Pretty much every one of us has
said that on certain occasions, like with friends in a cozy round or
during a party. However, if the “one” is followed by another on a
regular basis, a problem exists. I live in Pattaya also, and know well
how hard it can be to pass the countless offers of “Happy Hours” or
invitations of friends to join in.
But not being able to say ‘No’ in this city quickly
develops into a serious drinking problem. Too many people already empty
their first beer before noon. Even more are drinking behind closed
doors.
The most expensive bill for this behavior will have
to be paid by one’s body and psyche. Alcohol is a personality changing
drug. Often its abuse is marginalized for years - to the point where a
doctor will have to diagnose permanent physical damage. The most common
being liver damage, heart attacks, damage to skin, blood vessels and
nerves.
From a psychological point of view, alcoholism is
almost always associated with psychological stress - stress can be
repressed with alcohol. So even for relatives it can take a long time to
become fully aware of the full significance of the problem. The initial
symptoms are looking out for drinking opportunities, increased demand to
achieve the same effect, secret or very rapid drinking.
Richard L. Fellner heads the Counseling Center
Pattaya in Soi Kopai and offers consultations in English and German
after making appointments at 0854 370 470.
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