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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
The Real Estate Market is just not real, part 2
Many people in the know believe that the banks are, at best,
storing up or, at worst, hiding big losses. The Financial Times recently quoted
CBRE, who believe there over USD130 billion of poor quality property loans in
Britain alone. This is over twenty five percent of the UK’s sector debt. It is
also a fact that 40% of the USD130 billion are in default of the original
agreement. This has doubled in just six months.
Andrew Haldane, a director at the Bank of England, is
worried: “Let me not pretend that it is not something we are looking at closely.
It represents a risk. We recognize that loans with LTVs of over 100% will not be
refinanced. The hope would be that new sources of finance will come to the
market before the refinancing dates.”
Basically, he is stating what has been known for a long time.
Things are only going to get worse as those who have taken loans have to repay
what they have borrowed but are now in negative equity. They want to renegotiate
the loan but the finance companies cannot afford for them to do this. This is
Dubai but on a much, much smaller basis; but there are millions of people in
this situation which then makes the potential situation huge.
A lot of the debt came from the easy finance available in the
early to mid-2000s. Money made available to those wanting to borrow went up, on
average, by nearly 40% per annum in America and almost 25% in Europe. This cheap
debt is meant to have been responsible for over ninety percent of the USD1,400
billion of deals done.
Not only does this show the greed of the real estate market
but also the insatiable appetite of the banking sector wanting to get in and
have a piece of the action. They were so desperate to have a slice of the market
they turned a blind eye to what people were really earning and just signed them
up anyway. The idea was to show a paper profit and then sell it on before there
could be any comeback.
Banks and others who were not in on the initial deal began to
feel left out and this also showed on the profit sheets (theoretically). To get
a foot on the ladder they were prepared to pay a higher price and bought a block
of these loans and then passed it on for a profit at a later time and so the
pyramid began. At the height of this farce it was almost impossible not to find
a buyer. However, these people had forgotten the basics of how property is
valued - actual price, potential income and cost of replacement.
The madness escalated when the banks decided this was the new
kid on the block and had to be a part of it and so actually started to give
speculators money as well as debt. On many an occasion, this was done on
structured terms only using a small part of their own equity even though it
guaranteed returns for investors. The real risk was with the banks. It all
sounded too good to be true and it was.
In Britain, the leaders in this sector of the market were
Royal Bank of Scotland and HBOS. These two banks alone accounted for nearly 50%
of the outstanding debt which was well over GBP220 billion. Those poor things at
Lloyds, railroaded by the present government into taking over HBOS, are still
having to take commercial property write-offs. As the Financial Times wrote
recently, “Impairment charges of GBP22.1 billion since the end of last year
(2008) were related substantially to HBOS’s real estate spree.”
The Royal Bank of Scotland was no less greedy than HBOS and
also gave out structured products. The bank will now enter almost GBP40 billion
of property loans into the UK government’s Asset Protection Scheme (APS) where
loans are either on a high risk list or managed by its own people. The APS is
vital to keeping these loans alive. Without this direct government intervention,
the real estate sector would have suffered a lot more than it has. Some think
that this would not have been a bad thing.
To be continued…
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on
[email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Experiment with photo
filters - cheaply
 Are
all your shots looking the same these days? Have you become a ‘record
shot’ photographer? You know the kind of snapshots - the kids at the
beach, wife in the pool. The usual “Nung, song, sam, yim mak” and there
you have it. Next shot please.
This week I want you to look at the final photographs
as something more than a collection of ‘record’ shots. Here’s a simple
(and cheap) way to put some art into your photography by using filters,
without having to buy expensive filter kits. Filters can be used with
any camera, film, digital, compact or SLR, but digital will certainly
give you an instant result. I also believe in not spending too much on
filters, and when I say cheap, the first one costs 1 baht (and is
recoverable) and gives you a center-spot soft focus filter. It will
enhance portraits, particularly of women, giving a soft dreamy look to
the photo. Using this filter this just means the center is in focus and
the edges are nicely soft and blurred. This effect is used by portrait
and wedding photographers all over the world to produce that wonderful
“romantic” photograph.
You will need one can of hairspray, a one baht coin
and a clear piece of glass or plastic (perspex) around 7.5 cm square.
This piece of perspex needs to be as thin as possible to keep it
optically correct. One supply source can be hardware shops, glaziers and
even picture framers.
Having cut out your square, put the coin in the
center of the perspex and then gently wave the hairspray over the lot.
Let it dry and gently flick the coin off and you have your first special
effects filter - the center spot soft focus.
Now set your camera lens on the largest aperture you
can (around f4 is fine). Focus on your subject, keeping the face
in the center of the screen. Bring up your magic FX filter and place it
over the lens and what do you see? The face is in focus and the edges
are all blurred! You’ve got it. Shoot! Take a few shots, especially ones
with the light behind your subject. Try altering the f stop as well, as
this changes the apparent size of the clear spot in the middle. Simple,
cheap and easy art.
Here is another, the Super Sunset Filter. This one
will give you that wonderfully warm “tropical sunset” which will make
people envious that they aren’t over here to enjoy such spectacular
endings to the day. To produce the warm glow, just take off your
sunglasses and place one side over the lens. It’s that simple! Just look
at the difference yourself, with and without the sunnies. The camera
will see it the same way.
Soft romantic effects can be produced super
inexpensively as well. The first is to gently breathe on the end of the
lens just before you take the shot. Your warm breath will impart a
“mist” to produce a wonderfully misty portrait, or that early morning
mist look for landscapes. Remember that the “misting” only lasts a few
seconds, so make sure you have the camera pre-focussed and ready to
shoot. If you have control over the aperture, try around f4 as
well.
Here’s another. Use a piece of stocking (pantyhose)
material. Stretch it over the lens and tie it on with a rubber band. Cut
a small hole in the middle and go ahead and shoot romantic portraits.
There are also other ways of bending, refracting or
just generally fooling the camera’s lens system. This you do by holding
transparent materials in front of the lens when taking your photographs.
I suggest you get small pieces of glass or perspex (around 10 cm by 10
cm) and use these as the final filter. You can even use semi-transparent
material like shower screen glass. The concept is just to produce a
“different” effect, one that the camera will pick up. It is very
difficult to predict the outcomes in these situations, but you can be
pleasantly amazed at some of the results. The main idea is to give it a
try!
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Why Muay Thai fighters wear boxer shorts
Our lives are dominated by statistics. Organizations exist
which are dedicated to applying statistical research to everything that we
do. Even the shape of the bottle that soft drinks come in is fully
researched until the majority prefer one particular design and that is then
adopted by the manufacturer, and promoted to the public.
Now, statistics is that great pseudo-science where you
can “prove” so much by use of applied mathematics. For example, did you know
that every child is born within six months of its mother’s birthday? Or even
more fantastic, the date of your death will be within six months of your own
birthday! That has to be another good reason to stop having birthdays after
the age of 50!
Now while that sounds interesting, if you look a little
harder you will see that this is just a mathematical ‘truism’ and nothing to
do with biology or astrology. If you take any reference birth date, let’s
use June 30th for example, then any child born between Jan 1 to June 29 is
within six months of its mother’s birthday, as are any children born between
July 1 to December 31. In one case it is looking forwards, and in the other
it is looking backwards.
If you think that is an abuse of mathematical science,
then what about the fact that 99 percent of all people who died traumatic
deaths in London last year were all wearing shoes. Does this prove that
shoes are the greatest killers of mankind? An absurdity - of course not!
Again, this is ‘bending’ the parameters of science. Since about 99 percent
of all people in London wear shoes, you can safely predict that 99 percent
of those who get skittled on the roads will still be wearing their footwear.
(If you wish to statistically look at Bangkok, then substitute flip-flops
for shoes.)
Getting closer to home, I read of a study in Thailand on
varicose veins, and how tight underpants were dangerous (as opposed to Muay
Thai boxer shorts, I presume) because this study showed that something like
30 percent of varicose vein sufferers were wearing jockey style underdaks.
What was not stated in the report (in the popular press, so it may have been
selectively reported) was the choice of underpants of those who did not have
varicose veins, nor what percentage of men wearing jockeys did not get
varicose veins. Without these other figures, the rest is hocus-pocus. Always
remember lies, damned lies and statistics!
Pseudo-science also works the other way too. Classic
examples of this are when people will pronounce, with great authority, that
cigarette smoking does not bring about your early demise. The ‘proof’ of
this is their great uncle Charlie who lived to be 112 and smoked two packs
of cigarettes every day for 85 years. This great case study of one shows
nothing, other than the fact that this shows that great uncle Edward had a
wonderful constitution. Nothing else, sorry.
If two of the three people in your office get the flu,
this does not mean that 66.6 percent of the city is going down with Swine
Flu. All that can be assumed is that 66.6 percent of your office has a
problem. Nothing else.
There is a branch of medical science called Epidemiology,
which is a study of the incidence of diseases in large populations, and
epidemiological research requires the researcher to look at thousands of
cases before coming to conclusions. Great uncle Charlie alone is not enough.
The data we get from thousands upon thousands of cases, looking at smokers
and non-smokers, is now enough for us to say, quite categorically, that
smoking does put you at a very much greater risk of dying from cancer - that
is ALL cancers, by the way, not just lung cancer. And you can add heart
disease to that as well.
Forget the great uncle, give up now, before you too are a
statistic. And I am sorry, I don’t accept the “it’s my choice” theory. If
you saw someone choosing to run under a train, you would try and stop them
too. That’s like me with cigarette smokers, sorry.
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
I enjoy your column and I wonder if you can help me. My question may be a little
out of your area of expertise however, since I am not really interested in the
local women, or indeed any women for that matter (no offense).
What is it with Thai-manufactured pop-up toasters? I have been through three in
eighteen months. Different shops, different brands, the result is always the
same.
Am I missing something here? Is this some sort of cultural thing? Thailand
produces wonderful doctors and dentists after all, why not a decent toaster?
All right, the locally assembled cars and motorcycles are designed elsewhere,
but they work perfectly well. Could this be some sort of subtle Thai plot to get
at foreigners for appearing too wealthy? I hope not. Perhaps you or one of your
readers can enlighten me.
At my age there is not all that much I ask from life, but I do enjoy breakfast.
Perplexed of Chiang Mai
Dear Perplexed of Chiang Mai,
No need to apologize because the local women don’t do much for you, but it seems
that the local toasters don’t do much for you either! I think, however, that you
are using strange parameters when looking at this toaster problem. Thailand can
produce good cars and motorcycles (but “designed elsewhere”, you say), and
“wonderful doctors and dentists” but no opinion given as to whether they were
“designed elsewhere”, but for the sake of the exercise we will assume they are
all 100 percent Thai. So what are you doing with these pop-up toasters? Are you
using them correctly, and in the manner for which they were designed? (Are you
sure you don’t need a woman in the kitchen at least, Petal?) Considering the
automatic pop-up toaster, which ejects the toast after toasting it, was first
patented by Charles Strite in 1919, surely after 91 years we should know how to
make the darned thing work for you. Or you to work with it!
I am thinking that you may have a systems failure at the beginning of the toast
cycle. Is the toaster plugged in to an electrical socket that works - this is
often the problem in Thailand. Do you put the bread into the slots on the top of
the machine or are you putting the bread in from the bottom (no offense)? The
toasters you have bought - are they the new hi-tech models? In 1990 Simon
Hackett and John Romkey created The Internet Toaster, a toaster which could be
controlled from the Internet. With the broadband speed being at a crawl in
Northern Thailand, perhaps the signal is dropping out before the bread gets
brown. In 2001 Robin Southgate from Brunel University in England created a
toaster that could toast a graphic of the weather prediction (limited to sunny
or cloudy) onto a piece of bread. The toaster dials a pre-coded phone number to
get the weather forecast. Have you got one of these? I have it on good authority
that it does not work when the weather report is ‘smoke haze’, which we get 24
hours a day at this time of year.
My only real suggestion is to buy a toasting fork and hold the bread slices over
the gas ring - but do remember to light it first.
Dear Hillary,
Can you help please? Do all Thai people ask you the most personal questions?
Things like “How much money you make? You married yet? Why not? You got
girlfriend? You want me to go with you?” Apart from the fact that this is
considered a very rude way of starting a relationship in the UK, I also find it
very embarrassing when I am over here. How do I get these people to stop doing
this? You seem to have the answers for everyone else, so I hope you have some
for me too.
Shy and Retiring
Dear Shy and Retiring,
Or is that Shy and Retired? You have to look at where are these women who ask
such direct questions. My bet is in a bar somewhere. They are not in the habit
of issuing a gilt edged invitation to dinner, hand inscribed in Ye Olde English.
Be real and be thankful that ‘these people’ as you call them are interested
enough in you to even ask questions. There’s only one thing worse than being a
wall-flower at parties, and that’s not being asked at all. In actual fact, my
turtledove, those inquiries are very cleverly designed “standard” bar girl
questions to see if you are worthwhile bothering with at all. If you have no
money all interest will be lost immediately. Likewise if you are married they
will want to know if “You marry Thai?” or whether your partner is waiting
faithfully for you back home in the UK, while you contemplate the unfaithful
ideas. Lighten up and when you are asked next time just say, “No money. Wife
take all money to boy bar,” and then laugh a lot. They’ll get the message and
you will be left happily lonely, then you can write me letters asking why does
nobody talk to you!
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
More
disappointments this week! No Up in the Air with George
Clooney. No Invictus with Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon. Both
had previews and posters up at the cineplexes, but once again film fans
end up sadly disappointed.
Now playing in Pattaya (I hope!)
Alice in
Wonderland:
US, Adventure/
Family/ Fantasy – Seems to me like a perfect marriage between director
Tim Burton and the Lewis Carroll classic. The film stars Johnny Depp
as the Mad Hatter, with Alan Rickman as our favorite caterpillar.
If Alice doesn’t show, I think we should storm the venues,
demanding satisfaction!
The Book of Eli:
US,
Action/ Adventure/ Drama/ Thriller/ Western – Not for everyone, but I
found it thoroughly engrossing. The story revolves around a lone
warrior (Denzel Washington) who must fight to bring society the
knowledge that could be the key to survival. Gary Oldman is great as
the despot of a small town who’s determined to take possession of the
book Eli’s guarding. Directed by the Hughes brothers (Albert and
Allen), who inject some fresh stylish fun into a post-apocalyptic
wasteland. I think Denzel is terrific! Rated R in the US for some
brutal violence and language. Big C has only a Thai-dubbed version; in
English elsewhere. Mixed or average reviews.
Who Are You?:
Thai,
Horror/ Thriller – About a mother whose son has withdrawn from social
life and locked himself away in his room for five years. The only way
she can communicate with her son is to write on a piece of paper and
slip it under the door. This is the psychological condition of
“hikikomori” mostly afflicting Japanese, for some reason. This thriller
comes from writer Eakasit Thairatana, who wrote the terrific 13
Beloved, and director Pakphum Wonjinda (VDO Clip).
True Legend / Su
Qi-Er:
China, Action/ Drama/ History – A wealthy man living during the Qing
Dynasty loses his fortune and reputation as a result of a conspiracy
against him. After being forced out onto the streets, he dedicates his
life to martial arts and reemerges as a patriotic hero. With David
Carradine, Jay Chou, and Michelle Yeoh.
Shown in Pattaya
in a Thai-dubbed version only, no English subtitles. At Big C it’s
shown in 2D; at Pattaya Beach it’s shown in partial 3D: there are two 3D
sequences, with a total time of about 18 minutes. Not at Major
Cineplex. The film features one of the final performances by actor
David Carradine, who died in a bizarre accident in Bangkok during
post-production.
Kong Phan /
Gong-pan:
Nobody knows how
to translate the title. The Bangkok Post’s Kong Rithdee calls it The
Exhilarating Regiment. Film Business Asia calls it Jolly Rangers.
Plot: You’re in the Army now! Ain’t it fun?! It’s been described as a
“Gays in the military romp!” (Remember, this is what we get instead of
one of the Oscar contenders.) Studio synopsis: “Jiwon, a young lad, is
enlisted to the army where he meets his new and unusual friends.”
Uh-huh!
The Wolfman:
UK/ US, Horror/ Thriller – An excellent spare, dark, and brooding gothic
version of the famous tale, told with great style and much blood. For
those who like straight-up Gothic horror and blood, this is a welcome
remake of the 1941 Lon Chaney movie. Starring Benicio Del Toro and
Anthony Hopkins. Rated R in the US for bloody horror violence and gore;
18+ in Thailand. Big C has only a Thai-dubbed version; in English
elsewhere. Mixed or average reviews.
Percy Jackson &
the Olympians: The Lightning Thief:
Canada/ US, Fantasy/ Comedy – The Mount Olympus gods are not happy:
Zeus’ lightning bolt has been stolen, and high school student Percy
Jackson is the prime suspect in this sprawling and entertaining teen
adventure. As Percy finds himself caught between angry and battling
gods, he and his two close friends embark on an adventure to catch the
true lightning thief, and return the lightning to Zeus. Logan Lerman as
Percy is an excellent new teenaged hero like Harry Potter, but for me a
lot more interesting and with a lot more charisma; a sequel is already
announced for next year. There’s one short additional scene during the
closing credits. Big C has only a Thai-dubbed version; in English
elsewhere. Mixed or average reviews.
Avatar:
US, Action/ Adventure/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – Nine Oscar nominations,
including best picture and best director. Now the highest grossing film
in the world ever, bypassing the director’s own Titanic. It’s a
very good film and a truly major technological breakthrough. It’s
exciting and beautiful, and has received near-universal rave reviews
from critics and fans.
In Pattaya, Major
Cineplex has a 2D version, which is in English and Na’vi dialogue (the
completely new language created by linguists for the natives of the
planet Pandora), with English and Thai subtitles as needed. Pattaya
Beach no longer has a 2D version; the 3D version remains, in English and
Na’vi languages. Unaccountably the 3D version does not have English
subtitles for the Na’vi language, only Thai. Big C has a Thai-dubbed 2D
version, no English subtitles.
Reviews: Universal
acclaim. Not to be missed,
Little Big
Soldier:
China/ Hong Kong,
Action/ Adventure/ Comedy – An old soldier kidnaps a young enemy general
and takes him on a long journey to collect a reward. Written for Jackie
Chan (and by Jackie Chan), who came up with the story idea about twenty
years ago – it took that long to wrap up the script. The film is also
produced and directed by Jackie Chan. Shown in a Thai-dubbed version
only, no English subtitles. Not at Major Cineplex.
From Paris with
Love:
France, Action/ Crime/ Thriller – An intelligence operative working in
the office of the US Ambassador in France (Jonathan Rhys Meyers)
partners with a wisecracking, fast-shooting, high-ranking US agent (a
bald John Travolta) who’s been sent to Paris to stop a terrorist
attack. Stylish, fast-moving, exciting, with a wild performance by
Travolta. Rated R in the US for strong bloody violence throughout, drug
content, pervasive language, and brief sexuality. Mixed or average
reviews. At Pattaya Beach only.
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