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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
The Battle is Lost but can we win the War? Part 3
In the UK, the shadow chancellor, George Osbourne, did
something that no recent finance minister has done in a long time. He told the
truth. He said that “We are sinking in a sea of debt.”
He admitted that he would not lower taxes so not to increase the debt of the UK.
It is refreshing to hear there is someone out there, and who may soon get into
power, that actually realises what is going on.
Osbourne is brave to say this. It is not popular with the electorate or fellow
politicians but the fact is that people need to be made aware of the trouble the
world is now in - especially the western world. Basically, debt is at the heart
of our present financial woes. Nobody likes to think about it but the fact is
that the debt needs to be paid off. Creditors do not give money away. They want
their money back - usually with interest. This has been the case for centuries.
Another brave man is Mervyn King, the governor of the bank of England, who
basically echoed the words of George Osbourne. He said the British people would
be paying for the recent financial crisis for a generation. He again implored
the ostrich-like Gordon Brown to split banks and separate the retail arms from
the riskier investment operations. He is horrified the banks have done nothing,
despite “breathtaking” levels of support from the taxpayers. Needless to say,
this sage advice has been studiously ignored.
King warned that the government would have to make public finances more
sustainable and told people they should aim to be savers and not spenders in the
years to come. He went on, “Our national debt is rising rapidly, not least as
the consequence of support to the banking system. We shall all be paying for the
impact of this crisis on the public finances for a generation… To paraphrase a
great wartime leader, never in the field of financial endeavour has so much
money been owed by so few to so many. And, one might add, so far with little
real reform.” This last sentence was a dig at the banks who are getting ready to
pay out billions in bonuses.
George Osbourne was quoted as saying, “Mervyn King’s speech is powerful and
persuasive. His analysis of how the government’s system for regulating banks
failed and how there has been ‘little real reform’ since, is one I share.”
These criticisms do not come at a good time for Gordon Brown. The Office for
National Statistics latest report shows a record deficit in September of almost
GBP15 billion and a record high of GBP77 billion for the fist half of 2009. The
total net debt rose to just under GBP825 billion which is almost 60% of GDP
which is way over the government target of 40%.
However, when it comes to lending to governments, things can be different. In a
new book by two professors, Reinhart and Rogoff, This Time It’s Different, they
point out what we all know - bankers and those in charge of a country’s money
are idiots.
Ben Bernanke certainly falls into this bracket. He claimed credit (please
forgive the pun) for the supposed wealth everyone thought they had a few years
ago. Now he can take the blame for where we are now. As the two professors
suggest in their book, debt always causes trouble. France has defaulted on
sovereign debt eight times whilst Spain has managed to do this 13 times. This is
bad enough but Latin America makes them look decent and honourable. What with
usual banking problems, defaults and hyperinflation countries south of the Rio
Grande have managed to part lenders and their money with monotonous regularity.
What is just as tiresome is that the borrowers usually end up with more debt
than they started with.
So, what can we glean from history? Well, in a typical crisis, the following
usually happens:
- House prices fall by 36% over a six year period
- GDP per capita reduces by over nine percent
- Unemployment rates rise for five years, usually by seven percent
That is the ‘good’ news. However, this is what happens in a ‘typical’ crisis.
When things really go wrong like they did in the Great Depression then things
are a lot worse. For example:
- Construction fell 82% in America
- Unemployment in Germany went up over 30%
- Exports from Chile went down by 90%
- Public debt rises 86% over a thirty six month period
What happens then is that more disasters follow as there is too much debt in the
public sector. Both the US and UK now have deficits of over 10% of GDP. Neither
country knows what to do about this, especially the former which has its prime
minister blaming everyone but himself for the present crisis. He should look in
the mirror. We have lost the battle against credit and unemployment but we can
win the war, although it will be a long and painful experience.
And what can the individual do to guard against these dark times? There is still
money to be made out there. If it is done via good, cautious, active management
then it should be safe (a lot safer than the 100 US banks that went under this
year anyway) and it should beat anything you can get at the banks. More than
anything, diversify, diversify, diversify.
On a final note, it is worth taking on board that Harrods is now selling gold
bars. That says it all.
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on
[email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
12 rules to improve in 2010
 There
are many hints/tips that can improve anyone’s photographs. With the new
year almost upon us, I thought that 12 rules for 12 months might be
appropriate.
These rules are for the keen amateur, and I present my Rule of 12, which
if you follow them through, I will guarantee you will get better
photographs. And get more fun out of your photography.
The first is simply to shoot more images. Photography, like any sport,
recreation or pursuit is something where the more you do it and practice
it, the better you get. With today’s digital cameras and large capacity
memory cards, there is no excuse for just taking one picture of that
rose in your garden. Don’t take the same photo ten times, but take
several from different angles, and see the differences. Shoot more
pictures!
The one major fault in most amateur photographs is taking the shot from
too far away. From now on, make the subject the “hero” and walk in
several meters closer to make the subject fill the frame.
Focussing! With modern auto-focus cameras the most obvious focussing
problem is where the subject is off-center. The magic eye doesn’t know
this and focuses on the background, leaving your close-up subject soft
and blurry. Focus on the subject and use the focus lock facility of your
camera.
Tripods I have mentioned recently, but one of these will expand your
picture taking no end. Camera shake becomes a thing of the past, and you
will take more time to compose your shots.
Don’t be afraid to convert the images on your memory card into a CD,
long before the card is full. It will keep your interest and enthusiasm
going. Any photoshop can do it for you, with the price around B. 150.
Keep your interest and pride in your work by making enlargements of your
better photos. At around 80 baht for most places, this is very cheap and
enlargements do make good presents at Xmas time too.
We all get lazy and it is too easy to end up just taking every picture
in the horizontal (landscape) format. Make it a habit to always take at
least two shots of each subject – one in the horizontal format and the
other in the vertical. You can get some surprising results that way.
With color photography, which covers about 99.99 percent of most
pictures, the one major factor to give your skies and seas and scenery
some color oomph is the use of a polarizing filter. Get one and use it.
You will always miss some “classic” shots and regret it later, but you
certainly will never get them if you don’t have a camera with you. With
so many incredible photo opportunities in Thailand, you should be
photographically ready at all times!
To give your daytime shots some extra sparkle, use “fill-in” flash. Most
new cameras have a little setting that will do this automatically for
you - even with point and shooters. If you haven’t, then spend some time
learning how to do it. It’s worth it when you see the results you get.
To give yourself the impetus to go out and take photos, develop a
project and spend your leisure time building up the images. It can be
flowers or fashion, cars or canaries, but fix on something and follow it
through. It’s worth it, just for the fact that it makes you become an
“enquiring” photographer.
Finally, at the end of every year, give the camera a birthday by buying
it some new batteries. You won’t have a problem damaging the sensitive
innards with neglected battery acid and the camera’s light metering
system will work correctly every time. It’s cheap insurance.
Here is the list to cut out, laminate and put in the camera bag.
1. Take more shots
2. Walk several meters closer
3. Use the focus lock
4. Buy a tripod
5. Make CDs before the memory card is full
6. Make enlargements of your better prints
7. Use different formats
8. Use a polarizing filter
9. Carry your camera with you
10. Use the flash during the day
11. Develop a project
12. Change the batteries
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Liver, ethanol and health foods
Ask any man which is his most important organ and he will
undoubtedly point to his bladder’s siphon hose. Perhaps the magic symbol of
masculinity, but it is certainly not the be all and end all. (Though
indiscriminate use can end all!)
The liver is one of the more important organs you possess. Without it you
will die, whereas you can get by without a kidney, or a lung or a thyroid,
or even Willy the wonder wand for example (a delicacy enjoyed by Isaan
ducks, I believe)! Yes, I’d rate my liver above my thyroid any day.
Think of your liver as a filtering and de-toxifying device. Chemicals are
taken up by the liver, to be broken down into non-toxic chemicals, all to
protect your system. Clever organ your liver, to know what’s good for you
and what isn’t.
The most well known liver toxin is our old friend Ethanol, more usually
referred to as booze. There is “common wisdom” that says certain types of
booze are more damaging than others, but that just isn’t so. Irrespective of
the color or shape of the bottle it came in, ethanol is ethanol, is ethanol.
It is the percentage of alcohol that is the important factor. That alcohol
affects the liver is generally accepted, with the end result being called
Cirrhosis, a fibrous hardening of the liver which then becomes unable to
carry out its job correctly. Toxins build up. You feel unwell and it’s all
downhill from there.
Some proprietary or prescription drugs can produce an inflammation of the
liver tissues too. Or worse, produce a breakdown of the liver tissue itself.
Amongst these is the headache medication paracetamol (the ubiquitous
medication you can even buy in the corner stores), but before you throw them
out of your bathroom cabinet, it requires some heavy and very frequent
dosage of paracetamol to do this.
Other prescription items that may produce liver problems include Methyldopa,
several penicillins, Simvastatin (the cholesterol lowering drug), Diclofenac
(a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory) and Ketoconazole (anti-fungal). But it
is rare - so don’t stop taking your prescriptions yet!
Prescription drugs can be dangerous (even though you can get most of them
over the counter in Thailand), but that’s why they have a PI (patient
information) leaflet inside the box (the bit you throw away and don’t read).
Probably if you read it, you wouldn’t take it!
However, what about “Health food” preparations? The purveyors of these all
cite the fact that the ingredients are “natural” so everyone assumes that
this means “safe”. Not so, I’m afraid. Lead, for example, is a naturally
occurring compound, and not much good for young kidneys. However, since we
are talking about liver problems, hands up all those of you who have heard
of Echinacea? Supposedly fixes everything from falling hair to fallen arches
- but is it “safe”? Well, Echinacea, along with Kombucha Tea are two of the
commonest compounds showing a well documented history of being toxic to the
liver. So if you’re sipping Kombucha tea because you’ve drunk too much
alcohol last night, I would suggest that you change to water, or go back to
booze (stop hangovers - stay drunk)!
Others for sale in the Health Food shops with known toxic effects on the
liver include Evening primrose oil, Valerian, Chaparral, Japanese
Daisaiko-to (for dyspepsia), Chinese Jin-bu-huan and several forms of herbal
teas such as those from Heliotroprium, Senecio crotalaria and Symphytum.
Makes you think that the shops that sell them may be incorrectly named,
doesn’t it!
But while the column this week seems to be spreading doom, gloom and
disaster, it’s not quite that bad. The liver is a very powerful organ and is
capable of regenerating itself quite quickly, so in most cases of toxicity
following ingestion of chemical compounds (including alcohol), by stopping
taking it the liver recovers and the patient feels well again.
So remember that if you are taking anything regularly and you feel unwell,
it may be the liver - but tell your doctor everything you have been taking!
And no thanks, I’ll give the herbal tea a miss today.
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
It’s taken a couple of years, but at long last I’ve found someone like your
description of a good Thai woman. She’s older than any of the bar ladies, never
been married before and has traveled overseas, so knows there’s more countries
in the world than Buriram. Educated in Bangkok and has a Bachelor’s degree, and
a proud homemaker as well. I just can’t believe how lucky I have been in meeting
her. Thanks to you, Hillary, I kept on looking. You said there were some nice
girls out there and that’s what kept me going. Thanks again
Rob
Dear Rob,
I am so glad you found someone who looks like your mate. You (and I) are
correct. There’s a lot of nice girls out there if you can be bothered looking.
Not as immediately available as the ladies from the bars, but well worth
searching for if you want someone to share your life, and not just your bed and
bankroll.
Dear Hilary,
Do you believe it is possible to have a normal relationship with a katoey? I met
this lady-boy who was working in a retail store and I was immediately attracted
to her. I say “her” because even though I know she’s a lady-boy, she is as
female as any real female I’ve ever met. It’s a bit confusing I know, and I’m
still confused myself, but she has lived as a woman for the past five years and
comes across as a natural female. She is what you call “pre-op”, so even though
she has the boob development, she still has something left over from her male
days, if you can understand what I mean. She told me everything, because she
said she didn’t want to shock me later. She’s shocked me earlier, I think! We
haven’t been together, and just go to restaurants and movies at present. She
doesn’t dress all flashy, so people don’t stare at her, though I imagine they
might suspect because she’s even taller than me, so they are looking at me too.
What do you think I should do? Carry on or stop now?
Confused
Dear Confused,
This is certainly a different one for me to tackle, this problem of your
relating to tackle. And that’s not rugby tackle. You don’t say how old you are,
or how old she is, so I have to be a little wary, though you sound a little on
the young (and impressionable) side, my Petal. There is no reason why you cannot
have a friendly relationship with anyone, male or female, gay, straight or
curved. However, I read into your letter that you are more than a little anxious
about what other people might think of you in this relationship. It is for this
reason I believe you are probably biting off more than you could chew. Or make
that “should” chew. Going back to your question about “normal” relationships,
yes it is possible, but it needs each party to be a psychologically secure
person for this to happen. Since you are looking for help and advice, I don’t
think you are secure enough in yourself, so I would stick to restaurants and
movies, and keep the relationship as a friendly one only.
Dear Hillary,
Can you help please. Do all Thai people ask you the most personal questions?
Things like “How much money you make? You married yet? Why not? You got
girlfriend? You want me to go with you?” Apart from the fact that this is
considered a very rude way of starting a relationship in the UK, I also find it
very embarrassing when I am over here. How do I get these people to stop doing
this? You seem to have the answers for everyone else, so I hope you have some
for me too.
Shy and Retiring
Dear Shy and Retiring,
Or is that Shy and Retired? You have to look at where are these women who ask
such direct questions? My bet is in a bar somewhere. From that background, they
are not in the habit of issuing a gilt edged invitation to dinner, hand
inscribed in Olde English and a wax seal on the envelope. Be real and be
thankful that ‘these people’ as you call them are interested enough in you to
even ask questions. There’s only one thing worse than being a wall-flower at
parties, and that’s not being asked at all. In actual fact, my turtledove, those
inquiries are the very cleverly designed “standard” bar girl questions to see if
you are worthwhile bothering with at all. If you have no money all interest will
be lost immediately. Likewise if you are married they will want to know if “You
marry Thai?” or whether your partner is waiting faithfully for you back home in
the UK, while you contemplate the unfaithful ideas. Lighten up and when you are
asked next time just say, “No money. Wife take all money to boy bar,” and then
laugh a lot. They’ll get the message and you will be left happily lonely, then
you can write me letters asking why does nobody talk to you!
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in
Pattaya
Sherlock Holmes: UK/ Australia /US, Action/ Crime/ Thriller –
A new take on the Holmes canon. Apparently, once you get over the shock
of seeing Sherlock played as an action figure, it isn’t all that bad.
Robert Downey Jr. plays Holmes and Jude Law his stalwart partner
Watson. Early reviews: mixed or average.
The Storm Warriors: Hong Kong, Action/ Fantasy – A film produced and
directed by the twins Oxide Pang Chun and Danny Pang, described as a
martial arts/wuxia film, and the first Chinese film to extensively use
bluescreen. Shot entirely in three studios in Bangkok. Most reviews
applaud the style and not the substance.
October Sonata: Thai, Drama/ Romance – Set against a backdrop of the
October 1973 democracy demonstrations.
Avatar: US, Action/ Adventure/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – From director
James Cameron, a major achievement in storytelling, and a technological
breakthrough. It’s about a band of humans pitted in battle against a
distant planet’s indigenous population. This is a film of universal
appeal that just about everyone who ever goes to the movies will see.
At all locations it’s in English and Na’vi dialogue, with English and
Thai subtitles as needed. Big C also has a Thai-dubbed version; all of
these are 2D versions. The only cinema to show it in 3D is at Pattaya
Beach.
Reviews: Universal acclaim. The film delivers on all counts. Highly
recommended; not to be missed.
Paranormal Activity: US, Horror/ Mystery/ Thriller – After moving
into a suburban home, a couple becomes increasingly disturbed by a
nightly demonic presence, as the house makes no secret of the fact it is
not pleased with its new tenants. Opinions are all over the lot on this
one, but most give it thumbs’ up. Rated R in the US for language.
Generally favorable reviews. At Major Cineplex only.
New York, I Love You: France/ US, Drama/ Romance – An anthology
joining ten short films by ten directors, all love stories set in New
York. The rules: No more than two days’ shooting time. One week of
editing. An eight-minute time limit. If one film isn’t working for
you, just wait a few minutes. I found it generally entertaining, and a
couple of episodes quite striking. All in all, a nice little
unthreatening collection of 8-minute films, most with a twist at the
end. Rated R in the US for language and sexual content. Mixed or
average reviews. At Pattaya Beach only.
The Fourth Kind: US, Horror/ Mystery/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – “There are
four kinds of alien encounters. The fourth kind is abduction.”
Fact-based (well, you decide) thriller involving an ongoing unsolved
mystery in Alaska, where one town has seen an extraordinary number of
unexplained disappearances during the past 40 years and there are
accusations of a federal cover up. Despite a somewhat gimmicky
presentation, it has some decent shocks. If you’re already reading this
before seeing the movie, it’s nearly too late. Do yourself a favor and
don’t read anything more about the film before you go. This is a movie
that needs to be absorbed with a blank and open mind to be appreciated.
Generally unfavorable reviews. At Pattaya Beach only.
The Founding of a Republic / Jian guo da ye: China, Drama/ History –
The film was made to coincide with the 60th anniversary of the Chinese
Communist Party founding of China. The film boasts the most number of
China’s movie stars in one film – many of the country’s top stars were
invited to star as leads, supporting characters, or just a cameo in the
film, reportedly including some of the top Chinese stars like Jackie
Chan and Jet Li, who only have one shot or one line in the film. This
political drama begins in 1945 and chronicles the Chinese Civil War,
which eventually led to the Kuomintang’s retreat onto the island of
Taiwan, as well as the Communist Party’s establishment of the new
country in 1949. The film makes no pretense of doing anything other
than recounting history, and may prove to be a refreshing introduction.
At Big C only, only in Thai, only once a day, at 1:10 am, and it runs
138 minutes.
Pai in Love: Thai, Romance/ Comedy – Thai ensemble romantic comedy
of six short films centered about a group of friends who all happen to
take a winter vacation to the same place – Pai, northern Thailand’s
hippie retreat. Somehow, in that small province, they all find the true
meaning of love. Unfortunately only in Thai.
Yam Yasothon 2 / Hello Yasothorn 2: Thai, Comedy – Thai down-country
comedy with popular comedian Mum Jokmok and the usual TV comedians,
engaged in rustic humor. In Isan dialect, with Central Thai and English
subtitles.
Ninja Assassin: US/ Germany, Action/ Crime/ Thriller – A
blood-soaked combination of physical stunts and digital trickery,
featuring the shyly expressive Korean pop star Rain. Not recommended,
unless you’re easily delighted by ultra-violence for its own sake.
Rated R in the US for strong bloody stylized violence throughout, and
language. 18+ in Thailand. Generally unfavorable reviews. At Major
Cineplex only.
The Twilight Saga: New Moon: US, Drama/ Fantasy/ Romance – It’s for
teenaged girls with raging hormones who want very safe romance, with
just the vaguest threat of titillating danger. Vast numbers of people
love this movie; it’s a matter of taste. Mixed or average reviews.
2012: US/ Canada, Action/ Drama/ Thriller – The end of (almost) the
whole world, as only Director Roland Emmerich can show it, and very well
done indeed. The director’s had lots of practice. Mixed or average
reviews.
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